Changes In Fuel Prices Research Articles

Changes in Fuel Prices and the Use of Public Transport: Insights from the European Union following the Invasion of Ukraine

Rising fuel prices are known to affect public transport (PT) demand. However, the impact of the oil market inflation and subsequent energy crisis following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on mobility behaviour in Europe has received little attention. This study examines shifts in fuel prices and PT mobility across 25 Europe-an Union countries between February and May 2022. Weekly variations in PT mobility were correlated with diesel and gasoline prices, and a multiple linear regression was conducted to assess the influence of contextual factors in explaining variations in PT usage. The results indicate a significant increase in PT mobility across all countries after February 2022, which was positively associated with rising fuel prices. Approximately 84% of the variance in mobility was explained, with more pronounced increases observed in countries characterised by lower telecommuting prevalence, higher housing costs relative to household income, greater price differentials between gasoline and diesel, lower adoption of alternative fuels, and higher motorisation rates. These findings suggest that the surge in fuel prices, driven by the 2022 energy crisis, may have stimulated an increase in transit ridership.

Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in Mozambique

The fuel oil is a basic input to production, so an increase in oil price leads to a rise in production costs that induces firms to lower output. In parallel, oil prices change also effects, indirectly, the consumption, through its positive relation with disposable income. However, despite the relevance of the variation in fuel prices in economy, there are no recent study conducted to analyse the impact of changes in fuel prices on GDP and CPI in Mozambique. This study aims to contribute to filling the information gap by providing the quantification of the impact of fuel prices on GDP and CPI. So, the study aim to determine the impact of changes in FUEL prices on Inflation (Consumer Price Index – CPI) and Economic Growth (Gross Domestic Product – GDP), using quarter data from 2007 to 2020. Descriptive statistics, Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model, Granger Causality Econometric Models, Impulse and Response Function and Variance Decomposition Analysis are used. The results indicate that in Mozambique there are a cointegrating long-run relationship between FUEL prices and CPI and GDP, which suggest that the impact of FUEL prices shocks to CPI and GDP in short-run and long-run path. Also, the results show that changes in GDP and FUEL prices lead to an increase in CPI by 3.0% and 1.3%, respectively, <i>coeteris paribus</i>. The previous quarter’s errors (or deviation from long-run equilibrium) are corrected for with the current quarter at a convergence speed of 3.5% to GDP, and 4.8% to CPI. Granger causality tests also indicate causality between CPI and GDP, and the changes in GDP causes changes in other variables.

How do airlines cut fuel usage, reducing their carbon emissions?

Airline fuel consumption is costly for the firms and for society as well due to a climate-change externality. We study how fuel-price changes affect cost-minimizing choices by airlines that have implications for the extent of this externality. The airline industry’s capital stock can be easily inventoried as a set of long-lived, durable aircraft. This portfolio approach allows us to study the utilization and composition of the capital stock at a highly disaggregated level. Changes in airline operations directed toward conserving fuel can be an important path toward lower emissions.

Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Perubahan Publik Harga BBM terhadap Perekonomian Rakyat Indonesia

This research aims to find out the government's role in society regarding rising fuel prices, and also aims to find out what causes the increase in fuel prices. This research uses a qualitative research methodology and uses a descriptive approach where the researcher will compile a complex picture and analyze it word by word. The research results reveal that rising oil prices can have a significant impact on society and the country's economy. The research results also show that the fuel price change policy has a significant impact on the inflation rate, with direct consequences for people's purchasing power. In addition, certain economic sectors such as transportation and manufacturing are also significantly affected. This analysis provides insight into how fuel price policy can be an important instrument in managing economic stability and social welfare in Indonesia. The policy implications resulting from this research can provide guidance for more effective and sustainable policy planning in the context of changes in fuel prices in the future.

Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in Mozambique

Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in Mozambique

Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in Mozambique

Impact of Changes in Fuel Prices on Inflation and Economic Growth in Mozambique

Techno-economic feasibility of stand-alone hybrid energy system with battery storage in educational buildings: A case study of Uttara University

Stand-alone hybrid energy systems (HES) have the potential to significantly reduce pollutant emissions and alleviate strain on the national grid. The selection and sizing of stand-alone HES for buildings can serve as a methodological approach toward establishing a resilient and clean electrical energy system in urban areas of developing countries. To explore this further, a case study was conducted using Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources (HOMER) to assess the feasibility of implementing a HES at Uttara University in Dhaka, Bangladesh. This study examined the technical, economic, environmental, social, and reliability aspects of a stand-alone HES. The findings of this study suggested that the PV-WT-DG-BT is the most cost-effective solution for the University when compared to other hybrid configurations. Additionally, this HES benefits the surrounding communities by creating employment opportunities and contributing to human development. The sensitivity analysis showed that the COE and NPC of the optimal HES are sensitive to fuel price changes. A PV slope angle of 23.88° was cost-effective, and a 20-meter wind turbine hub height was optimal. It was observed that increased solar radiation decreases COE. Further, sensitivity analysis showed that fuel costs, CO2 emissions, and NPC will decrease if average daily load demand declines. It was also found that 1 kWh of Li-Ion-based HES performed the best compared to other batteries. Finally, the results of the genetic algorithm (GA), and grey wolf optimizer (GWO) showed that they provide the same optimum configuration as HOMER but with the lowest NPC. The findings of this study can serve as a foundational model for designing HESs in other large educational buildings located in low and middle-income countries with environmental conditions and socio-economic characteristics similar to Bangladesh.

Will changes in charging and gasoline prices affect electric vehicle sales? Evidence from China.

Electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles are substitutes for each other, and the cost of fuel is an important factor when consumers are faced with choices. Understanding the influence of changes in gasoline prices and charging prices on electric vehicle sales is of reference significance for promoting electric vehicles in the private sector. This paper uses data covering 212 prefecture-level cities from January, 2020, to August, 2022, for analysis, and the results show that different income groups have different sensitivities to the difference in oil and electricity prices. Additionally, changes in gasoline prices and charging prices will significantly affect electric vehicle sales in low-income and middle-income cities, electric vehicle sales in high-income cities will not be affected. Compared with nonpilot cities, residents of pilot cities are more sensitive to fuel price changes, indicating that the policy basis has a certain positive effect on the promotion of electric vehicles. It is recommended to consider the income status of regional residents when formulating policies for the use of electric vehicles. At the same time, publicity efforts should be increased to highlight the gap between the cost of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.

THE IMPACT OF CRISIS SITUATIONS ON THE FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF ROMANIAN COMPANIES

The society is always on move and to deal promptly with this dynamic, the only option of companies is rapid and continuous adaptation to changes even trying to transform certain challenges into opportunities. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the impact that the changes in the economic environment, from the last period, had on Europe, and then specifically on Romania. The unexpected situations that have happened in recent years, starting with the COVID 19 pandemic, then with the war between Russia and Ukraine, and in the last year, strong inflation rates and accentuated economic crises, are some of the topics analyzed in the paper, highlighting the effect that these events had on the economy. The paper contains theoretical approaches regarding the effects of inflation on the whole society, both on individuals and on economic entities. The research methodology is qualitative, carrying out a descriptive analysis of the financial information of five significant Romanian companies, through the main economic and financial indicators, in order to analyze the changes that took place at their level, in the period 2019-2022. The previously mentioned events will be briefly analyzed, as well as the possible measures taken at the national or global level. The results showed that both companies from production and trade of petroleum products were more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic than by the war in Ukraine, and the other three companies, in the field of industry, suffered an accumulation of consequences, the war aggravating the crisis generated by the pandemic. Whether it is transport, industry, services, or other branches of contemporary economy, they all need fuel, in larger or smaller quantities, depending on the field of activity. So, the fuel price changes affected the costs and implicitly the profitability of the companies, but for the entities in the field of trade with petroleum products, the crisis was an opportunity to evolve and become stronger in the market.

Sentiment Analysis to Measure Public Trust in the Government Due to the Increase in Fuel Prices Using Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine

The study examines public sentiment on the government's fuel price policy using an experimental approach and Twitter data obtained through API scraping. It applies sentiment analysis methods like Naïve Bayes, SVM, and Majority Voting. SVM achieved 85% accuracy, excelling in identifying negative sentiments, while Majority Voting reached 70% by considering confidence levels. Naïve Bayes struggled with neutral sentiments. They are combining methods to enhance the understanding of public sentiments on fuel price changes. The study highlights sentiment analysis' effectiveness in gauging reactions to fuel policies, with SVM offering more profound insights into sentiments related to fuel price hikes. Challenges remain in identifying neutral sentiments due to social media text brevity. These findings underscore the contextual importance of interpreting sentiment analysis. Leveraging these insights, governments can understand public perceptions better and devise improved communication strategies for sensitive economic policies like fuel price hikes, fostering better government-citizen interactions. The study aims to guide stakeholders in comprehending public perspectives within public policy, emphasizing the relevance of sentiment analysis for policy evaluation.

Prediction of Petrol and Diesel Prices in Dar Es Salaam using ARIMA models

Purpose: The study aims to address the importance of predicting fuel prices due to their impact on the economy and welfare of people in Dar es Salaam city and regions in Tanzania.
 Design/Methodology/Approach: This study follows the quantitative research design by utilizing secondary data. The sample data consists of monthly petrol and diesel prices in Dar es Salaam from January 2015 to May 2023. The ARIMA model was employed to analyze the time series data with model identification, estimation, and verification steps performed using statistical techniques such as the ADF test, ACF, PACF, and AIC.
 Findings: The findings indicated that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model was the best-fitted model for forecasting both petrol and diesel prices in Dar es Salaam. The forecasted values for the next six months show that models demonstrated good performance in predicting petrol and diesel prices.
 Research Limitation/Implication: Some of the potential limitations of this study include the reliance on secondary data, the assumptions of stationarity and linearity in the ARIMA model, and the sensitivity of the forecast to future data. Also, the study focuses specifically on Dar es Salaam which may limit the generalizability of the findings in other regions.
 Social Implications: This study has significant social implications for residents of Dar es Salaam, offering insights for household budgeting, transportation planning, and predicting fuel price changes. It also informs social programs and subsidies, contributing to equitable and sustainable community development.
 Practical Implications: The study has practical implications for the stakeholders in the fuel industry, policymakers, and consumers in Dar es Salaam. The accurate prediction of petrol and diesel prices can assist consumers in making informed decisions regarding pricing, budgeting, and fuel consumption which helps to reduce the risk of fuel loss and optimize their fuel-related choices.
 Originality/Value: The novelty of this study is analyzing historical fuel price data in Dar es Salaam using ARIMA models. Through this approach, we identify trends, seasonality, and cyclical patterns unique to the region. This knowledge adds to the existing understanding of fuel price determinants in the local context.

Pengaruh Kenaikan Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak terhadap Pemilihan Moda Transportasi (Studi Kasus: Perkotaan Yogyakarta)

The increase in world oil prices has led to changes in the price of fuel oil (BBM) in Indonesia. The fuel price change policy impacts various sectors, including the transportation sector. Transportation is one of the basic human needs for moving from one place to another. Various factors are taken into consideration by the community in choosing the mode of transportation to be used. This study aims to analyze the impact of changes in fuel prices on preferences for transportation modes in urban Yogyakarta and to see how people's behaviour changes in mobility. The analytical method used in this research is descriptive and crosstab analysis. Descriptive analysis was used to identify the respondents' characteristics, the journey's characteristics, and the effect of rising fuel prices. Crosstab analysis is used to see the relationship between the characteristics of respondents and the choice of transportation mode before and after the fuel price increase. The data collection method was carried out by distributing questionnaires to the people of Yogyakarta. The choice of transportation mode when fuel oil increases does not change much, whereas in the scenario of changing fuel prices, there is a significant increase. This can be seen from the decrease in car users when there is an increase in the price of fuel oil, while the probability of motorcycle users when the fuel price rises until the fuel price is Rp 12,000 continues to increase, while when the fuel price is Rp 14,000 switch to using public transportation modes, namely the Trans Jogja bus. When the price of fuel oil increases, the frequency of primary trips does not change, while the frequency of secondary trips changes. Transportation costs incurred have increased, and the fuel used has changed; from the first, Pertamax switched to pertalite

Do car drivers respond differently to fuel price changes? Evidence from German household data

AbstractFor cutting down greenhouse gas emissions in road transport, core economic measures are relying on the response to increasing fuel prices—i.e., the fuel price elasticity. A focal point of the effectiveness of these measures is the heterogeneity in fuel price elasticities of different vehicle users. These effects were often neglected in the transport-related literature and were only incorporated recently. The results show, however, sometimes contradicting conclusions on influencing parameters such as income, region-type or household size. In this paper, we used a pooled OLS model estimated on a German refuelling diary data set and analysed the impact of various household level characteristics on fuel price elasticities through an analysis of interaction terms and their marginal effects. This analysis provides a cornerstone in this discussion on fuel price elasticities. We found out that the overall results contrast the existing literature by identifying heterogeneity in fuel price elasticities among German households for different socio-economic and regional characteristics. The results are highly relevant for policy modellers and for introducing effective policy measures for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in road transport.

Assessment of risks affecting the operational activities of the Amman bus rapid transit (BRT) system

In the first decade of the 21st century, bus rapid transit (BRT) became a significant transportation method. However, implementing a BRT system in developing countries involves many risks associated with its operational activities, whether political, technical, occupational, or financial. Therefore, a corresponding risk assessment is required, which consists in identifying, classifying, and analysing all risks in any project at each phase of project development. Most studies show that risk evaluations in the early stages refer to planning and implementation. However, little research has been conducted on the operation phase to determine the importance of studying risks at this phase. The current study aims to analyse risks affecting the main operating activities of Amman BRT system in Jordan. Thus, the risks associated with the Amman BRT project are highlighted by reviewing previous studies, resulting in 45 risk factors classified into five main groups of Amman BRT operational activities, including 17 categories. A survey was carried out by distributing a questionnaire to 177 respondents; 122 were returned, and 115 were accepted for analysis. The collected data were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Through analysing the questionnaire, the probability of occurrence and the risk impacts were calculated, yielding the relative importance index for each risk. To validate the analysed risks, external validation was carried out by interviewing seven experts in Amman BRT system operation. The key results obtained indicated eight significant risks affecting the Amman BRT system that need to be considered: fuel price change; work-related stress conditions; violence and harassment at work; accidents in the workplace due to breaking traffic rules; a lack of supporting infrastructure (rainwater drainage, a lack of emergency exits on the bus route); corruption and bribery; the involvement of too many multi-level decision- makers; and contract problems between the operator company and the government, where their relative importance indexes ranging from 20.7 to 15.2. The study contributes to the knowledge of this region of the world on this subject. Specifically, the case of BRTs is rare, and knowing which risks are affecting the main operational activities is critical. For future studies, mitigating these risk factors associated with the Amman BRT system is recommended via proper management.

Modelling the effects of fuel price changes on road traffic collisions in the European Union using panel data

Road deaths globally have steadily climbed in recent years with the increase in motorisation. Yet in many economically developed countries they have actually fallen. Explanations for this reduction include the role of improved vehicle and highway design, better enforcement and the impact of the economic downturn, whilst there is also some evidence that microeconomic factors like changes in road fuel prices could be contributing to this situation. This paper investigates the effects of fuel prices on road collision frequency in countries where fuel prices are relatively high. Monthly panel data from 28 EU member states from 2005 to 2018 was analysed for both petrol and diesel prices, and for fatalities, total injury collisions and total collisions using: 1) random effect negative binomial (RENB); and 2) population-averaged negative binomial using generalised estimating equations (GEE). The findings indicate that higher fuel prices lead to lower road traffic deaths, injury collisions and overall collisions across all 28 EU member states. Thus, for every 10 percent increase in fuel prices, there will be a 2.6 percent and 2.2 percent reduction in fatalities for petrol and diesel models, respectively. Similarly, total collisions fall by 1.4 percent for petrol and 1.2 for diesel models, and total casualties fall by 1.6 percent for petrol and 1.4 percent for diesel with every 10 percent rise in fuel price. These results could be due to drivers reducing speed to achieve better fuel efficiency and to people driving less to save money – in particular younger, riskier drivers – hence reducing exposure. These findings suggest that policies replacing petrol and diesel vehicles with alternative fuel sources over the next 20 years could have negative repercussions for road safety if not adequately considered.

Environmental consequences of fuel price shocks in China

This study investigates the environmental consequences of fuel price shocks, using a rich dataset from the Chinese megacity of Hangzhou. Our identification strategy is mainly aided by instrumenting fuel price using exogenous global oil prices. We find that a 10% increase in fuel price leads to a 10.29%–11.45% decrease in driving demand, reflected by road congestion index, and a 17.6%–20.27% decrease in industrial activities, measured by electricity consumption. The decreases in driving demand and industrial activities are indeed correlated with air quality improvement and decline in major pollutant concentrations. While the findings shed light on the short-term environmental outcomes of price-based measures, the negative effects of fuel price increases on industrial activities may generate undesirable impacts on macroeconomy in the long-term perspective. Despite ample evidence demonstrating that drivers respond to fuel price changes, considerably fewer studies investigate their environmental and economic consequences. This study addresses this gap in the literature and contributes to a better understanding of the effects of fuel price shocks on air pollution and economic activities.

ВПЛИВ ЦІНИ ПАЛЬНОГО НА СОБІВАРТІСТЬ ВИКОНАННЯ ПОЛЬОВИХ РОБІТ АГРАРНИМ ПІДПРИЄМСТВОМ: АНАЛІЗ ТА СТРАТЕГІЇ ОПТИМІЗАЦІЇ

As a result of the conducted research involving a wide range of agricultural machines with different numbers of bodies and, corresponding in terms of power, energy means of Soviet and foreign production, dependencies were obtained and the degree of influence of the cost of fuel on the total cost of cultivation of one hectare of field was determined. A comparison and analysis of the degree of change in the cost of agricultural work at the price of diesel fuel at the level of UAH 40/l and at the level of UAH 60/l was carried out, which showed that differences in the cost of processing between different machine units with an increase in the price of fuel become more noticeable, if their specific fuel consumption is not the same. At a fuel price of UAH 40/l, the discrepancy between MU 1 (YUMZ-6AKL + Europal 5 Lemken) and MU 5 (K-700A + Europal 9 Lemken) is 32%, and at a fuel price of UAH 60/l, this discrepancy increases to 43 %. Also, in this work, the main ways of optimizing the increased cost of field work, as a result of the increase in the price of fuel, were given and analyzed. From the above methods, an optimization method was chosen and studied in detail, the essence of which is to replace energy vehicles in the company's rolling stock from less energy-efficient models, mainly Soviet ones, to more energyefficient ones, mainly European and American ones. Cost optimization for the five upgraded machine units to be considered was in the range of 4.8 - 8.5%, and on average it was 6.5%. Under the condition of using the same agricultural machines and other parameters of the surrounding environment remaining unchanged, studies were conducted, as a result of which it was determined that due to the lower specific fuel consumption of foreign tractors, the degree of influence of fuel price changes on the total cost of agricultural work for them is significantly lower, and therefore an increase in the price of energy resources does not have such a strong impact on the profitability of an agricultural enterprise, whose fleet of energy equipment consists, for the most part, of foreign models, compared to an agricultural enterprise, whose fleet of energy equipment, for the most part, consists of Soviet and post-Soviet models. However, taking into account the importance of other optimization strategies, their implementation in combination with the replacement of less energy-efficient models of energy means will allow to achieve even more significant results in reducing the cost of field work in agriculture.

Fuel–food nexus in urban areas: evidence from Burkina Faso

ABSTRACT This study examines the transmission of fuel prices to food security among households with motorcycles in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, combining quantitative and behavioural analyses. The results indicate that approximately 61.3% of households were affected by food insecurity between 2018 and 2019. This share comprises those experiencing meagre forms of food insecurity (24.8%), moderate food insecurity (28.3%), and the most severely affected (8.2%). One of the chief reasons for food insecurity is households’ high reliance on motorcycles as a primary means of transportation. Low-income levels and unproductive rides can reinforce exposure to such vulnerability. Besides, households react differently and asymmetrically to fuel price changes. Reactions to hypothetical fluctuations in fuel prices suggest a positive association between gradual increases in fuel prices and food insecurity. Households’ exposure to food insecurity is further bolstered when the head is a female, non-salaried, less educated, of low income, or from a large household.

Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) of Gojek User Post Fuel Prices Changes

This study aims to examine the correlation between fuel prices and service tariffs towards customer satisfaction. This study is conducted at post fuel price changes. The sample of this study uses Simple Random Sampling as 86 respondents. The result shows that the biggest factor which gives much impact to customer satisfaction is service tariff variable. The study findings highlight the significant and positive of fuel prices and service tariffs towards consumer service or so-called customer satisfaction.

Investigation of the Relationship Between Fuel Prices and Fuel Consumption in Turkey

This study investigates the impact of fuel price changes on fuel demand in Turkey. The rise in global oil prices since the fourth quarter of 2021 has resulted in considerable increases in oil prices in countries that rely on foreign oil consumption. With the devaluation of the Turkish lira beginning the fourth quarter of 2021, the rise in oil prices reached a historical high in a very short period of time. This situation necessitates the presentation of a recent empirical study to the literature on whether oil consumption changes as a result of oil price fluctuations. Weekly data from 2014 to 2022 were analyzed for this purpose. The fuel expenditures of households with bank and credit cards were utilized as the dependent variable in the study to indicate fuel demand. The average of unleaded gasoline and diesel prices, car sales, car rental charges, and the nominal USD/TL rate are all considered independent factors. According to the analysis, an increase in the exchange rate and gasoline costs lowers the fuel price. The increase in expenses connected to car sales and rental, on the other hand, increases fuel costs.