Frequent Component Research Articles

QUINTAIS AGROFLORESTAIS: ESTRUTURA, COMPOSIÇÃO E ORGANIZAÇÃO SOCIOPRODUTIVA

Os quintais agroflorestais são representações de sistemas diversificados, fundamentados em conhecimentos tradicionais, sendo o manejo pautado em saberes agroecológicos, que abrangem o modo de vida do agricultor. Desse modo, o objetivo foi avaliar a estrutura, composição e a organização socioprodutiva de quintais agroflorestais em comunidades rurais do município de Igarapé Açu, Pará. O estudo foi realizado em dez quintais agroflorestais, localizados nas comunidades do Triângulo, São Jorge do Jabuti, Limão e Dezesseis, localizadas no município de Igarapé-Açu. A metodologia baseou-se em formulários, entrevistas semiestruturadas, técnica turnê guiada, bola de neve e observação direta. Constatou-se que os quintais agroflorestais eram compostos, principalmente, por espécies agrícolas, medicinais e florestais, com expressiva diversidade e distribuição desuniforme. O componente animal mais frequente foram as aves, mantidas com o intuito de assegurar a soberania e segurança alimentar das famílias.

Prognostic importance of deranged sodium level in critically ill patients: A systemic literature to review.

It is common upon admission or during stay at a hospital or intensive care unit (ICU) for patients to present with or acquire a serum sodium abnormality. Hyponatremia, serum sodium level less than 135 mmol/L, frequently associated with critical illnesses such as heart failure and liver cirrhosis, is an indicator of disease severity as well as a risk factor for poor prognosis. Hypernatremia, serum sodium level greater than 145 mmol/L, results due to any ailment disabling a patient's modality of thirst or the ability to relieve it once sensed. Hypernatremia has a more frequent iatrogenic component than hyponatremia. It can develop insidiously among patients through IV fluid administration of saline; both its presentation upon admission and development during stay is associated with mortality. Hyponatremia is associated with increased mortality and its treatment with morbidity as it carries a risk of overcorrection and consequently the development of central pontine myelinolysis. This review article covers the findings, and subsequent correlation between findings sought, of six articles catering to underscore the correlation between sodium disorders and prognosis of hospitalized or critically ill patients. PubMed search engine was utilized to select articles befitting the purpose of this review. Cumulatively, this review article substantiates the need to diligently evaluate and treat serum sodium disorders in hospitalized patients to achieve better prognosis.

A Child has a Right to Blood Transfusion Services in Nigeria, despite the Religious Status of the Parents or Guardians

Red blood cell transfusion is an important and frequent component of neonatal intensive care. Whereas blood and blood products transfusion can help a patient (child) recover from a serious illness, surgery or injury, because of the religious beliefs of some parents or guardians, a child may be denied the benefit of this life-saving service. Several legal statutes and precedents exist to protect the rights of children in need of life-saving blood transfusions where denied this opportunity to be transfused and survive. The awareness of these extant laws and statutes are critical for the empowerment of healthcare providers in the performance of their role within the provisions of the law and medical ethics.

A Clinical Profile of Metabolic Syndrome and Its Determinants among Police Officers in Bali

Introduction: Metabolic syndrome is defined as a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors which includes hyperglycemia, central obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia. This study aimed to describe the clinical profile of metabolic syndrome among police officers.
 Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among the police officers who performed the screening program at Bhayangkara Hospital Denpasar. The data was obtained by anamnesis, physical examination from anthropometric measurements and blood pressure, and laboratory findings. All data was computerized and analyzed using SPSS v.24. Criteria of metabolic syndrome was established using modified 3rd Adult Treatment Panel, International Diabetes Federation.
 Results: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome among the police officers who performed the screening program in the period of January-June 2019 was 68.7%. Males (87.3%) were found to be more frequent than females (12.7%), and the most prevalent age were ranging from 36-45 years old (62.7%). A significant association was found between the metabolic syndrome event and gender (OR=0.169, 95% CI=0.078-0.366, p-value <0.001).
 Conclusions: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome among the police officers was high, especially in male. The most frequent component of metabolic syndrome found in both male and female was central obesity. Association was found between metabolic syndrome and gender.

NONLINEAR METHOD FOR REAL-TIME WAVE FORCE RECONSTRUCTION ON A CYLINDER BY USING MEASURED WAVE ELEVATION

For a constructed offshore structure, wave force evaluation on its foundation in an intricate wave field will benefit the load data collection and structural safety monitoring. Then, the collected data can provide valuable references for similar structures constructed in the same ocean region in the future. A real-time wave force prediction can further contribute to the active control of the structural dynamic responses. According to the incident waves known or unknown, the wave force reconstruction issue can be divided into two categories. When the incident waves are known, the wave forces on the cylinder can be achieved by the theoretical methods or numerical methods. When the incident waves are unknown, researchers try to reconstruct the wave force indirectly. For a small-scale cylinder, researchers predicted the wave forces by using the Morison equation in random wave fields with measured data of wave elevation. These studies indicated a shortcut for determining the wave force on the cylinder by using the data of water surface elevation. However, the wave fields are assumed to be undisturbed by the structure in the mentioned studies. For a vertical larger-scale cylinder, Liu et al. (2018) established a prediction method to reconstruct wave force by using the recorded data of wave elevation around the cylinder. A linear method for the circular cylinder is provided that shows an excellent reconstruction of wave force for its dominant frequent components. However, reconstruction results showed that high frequency wave forces are underestimated and low frequency wave forces are overestimated, which means the linear method is incapable to predict the nonlinear wave forces on the structure. An improved method is built for reconstructing wave forces on a circular cylinder in the real-time. Two different algorithms, Fast Fourier Translation (FFT) and Recursive Least Squares (RLS), for real-time reconstruction are conducted. The present method can be applied for the data collection of wave loads on a constructed offshore structure.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/PYOuCNP8pgQ

The Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome in Ethiopian Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background The metabolic syndrome is a clustering of hyperglycemia/insulin resistance, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity which are risk factors for cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and stroke, and all-cause mortality. The burden of metabolic syndrome is emerging alarmingly in low- and middle-income countries such as Ethiopia; however, there is lack of comprehensive estimation. This study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Ethiopia. Methods This systematic review and meta-analysis included original articles of observational studies published in the English language. Searches were carried out in PubMed, Google Scholar, and Africa Journals from conception to August 2020. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Ethiopia. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic. Subgroup analysis was also conducted based on sex/gender and study subjects. Egger's test was used to assess publication bias. Results Electronic and gray literature search retrieved 942 potentially relevant papers. After removing duplicates and screening with eligibility criteria, twenty-eight cross-sectional studies were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Ethiopia was found to be 34.89% (95% CI: 26.77, 43.01) and 27.92% (95% CI: 21.32, 34.51) by using NCEP/ATP III and IDF criteria, respectively. The weighted pooled prevalence of metabolic syndrome was higher in females 36.74% (95% CI: 20.72, 52.75) and 34.09% (95% CI: 26.68, 41.50) compared to males 22.22% (95% CI: 14.89, 29.56) and 24.82% (95% CI: 18.34, 31.31) by using IDF and NCEP/ATP III criteria, respectively. Subgroup analysis based on the study subjects using NCEP/ATP III showed that the weighted pooled prevalence was 63.78%(95% CI: 56.17, 71.40), 44.55% (95% CI: 30.71, 52.38), 23.09% (95% CI: 19.74, 26.45), 20.83% (95% CI: 18.64, 23.01), and 18.45% (95% CI: 13.89, 23.01) among type 2 diabetes patients, hypertensive patients, psychiatric patients, HIV patients on HAART, and working adults, respectively. The most frequent metabolic syndrome components were low HDL-C 51.0% (95% CI: 42.4, 59.7) and hypertriglyceridemia 39.7% (95% CI: 32.8, 46.6). Conclusions The findings revealed an emerging high prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Ethiopia. Therefore, early intervention is required for the primary prevention of the occurrence of metabolic syndrome and the further reduction of the morbidity and mortality related to it.

Language as a Concept of Russian Aphoristics

The article describes aphoristics as an integral part of the language and culture studies reflecting the value system of the people's mentality diachronically and synchronically. Russian aphoristics has been preserving national identity, morale and values throughout centuries, for generations transferring cultural and historic memory of the people. However, aphoristics reflects not only unique, specific features of Russian culture and mentality but also demonstrates unanimity of the culture codes and the universal character of human values. The study specially focuses on the Russian aphoristics sphere of concepts whereas, possible to outline and depict dozens of concepts specified on the level of culture as well. The concept LANGUAGE represents one of the key concepts of the human cognitive system, hence it is widely and diversely exposed in the corpus of the Russian aphoristics of the 18th-21st centuries. In aphoristics, LANGUAGE emerges in different ways. In Russian aphoristics, the specification of the concept LANGUAGE has got an ambivalent nature. Here LANGUAGE is realized in the homonymic phraseo-semantic field being verbalized by means of the most frequent components of the core and periphery of the phraseo-semantic field: LANGUAGE (Russian language, native tongue), foreign LANGUAGE, word, parole, syllable, etc.

Myocardial Infarction in the ISCHEMIA Trial: Impact of Different Definitions on Incidence, Prognosis, and Treatment Comparisons.

In the ISCHEMIA trial (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches), an initial invasive strategy did not significantly reduce rates of cardiovascular events or all-cause mortality in comparison with a conservative strategy in patients with stable ischemic heart disease and moderate/severe myocardial ischemia. The most frequent component of composite cardiovascular end points was myocardial infarction (MI). ISCHEMIA prespecified that the primary and major secondary composite end points of the trial be analyzed using 2 MI definitions. For procedural MI, the primary MI definition used creatine kinase-MB as the preferred biomarker, whereas the secondary definition used cardiac troponin. Procedural thresholds were >5 times the upper reference level for percutaneous coronary intervention and >10 times for coronary artery bypass grafting. Procedural MI definitions included (1) a category of elevated biomarker only events with much higher biomarker thresholds, (2) new ST-segment depression of ≥1 mm for the primary and ≥0.5 mm for the secondary definition, and (3) new coronary dissections >National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grade 3. We compared MI type, frequency, and prognosis by treatment assignment using both MI definitions. Procedural MIs accounted for 20.1% of all MI events with the primary definition and 40.6% of all MI events with the secondary definition. Four-year MI rates in patients undergoing revascularization were more frequent with the invasive versus conservative strategy using the primary (2.7% versus 1.1%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.98 [95% CI, 1.87-4.73]) and secondary (8.2% versus 2.0%; adjusted HR, 5.04 [95% CI, 3.64-6.97]) MI definitions. Type 1 MIs were less frequent with the invasive versus conservative strategy using the primary (3.40% versus 6.89%; adjusted HR, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.41-0.69]; P<0.0001) and secondary (3.48% versus 6.89%; adjusted HR, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.41-0.69]; P<0.0001) definitions. The risk of subsequent cardiovascular death was higher after a type 1 MI than after no MI using the primary (adjusted HR, 3.38 [95% CI, 2.03-5.61]; P<0.001) or secondary MI definition (adjusted HR, 3.52 [2.11-5.88]; P<0.001). In ISCHEMIA, type 1 MI events using the primary and secondary definitions during 5-year follow-up were more frequent with an initial conservative strategy and associated with subsequent cardiovascular death. Procedural MI rates were greater in the invasive strategy and with the use of the secondary MI definition. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01471522.

Associations of metabolic syndrome in SLE

ObjectivesTo characterise the prevalence and associations of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a multiethnic cohort of patients with SLE.MethodsUsing a standardised protocol, baseline demographics, per visit disease activity (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus...

The Cardiac Fibroblast in heart failure – an inflammatory cell

Abstract Introduction Cardiac inflammation with subsequent remodeling of the extracellular matrix (ECM) with fibrosis formation is an important precursor of heart failure. In myocardial inflammation release of cytokines, such as TNF-α was previously linked to the development of fibrosis. However, their exact role in fibroblasts activation, leading to their transformation into myofibroblasts and ultimately fibrosis is unknown. Therefore, the purpose of this work was to study the secretome of isolated cardiac fibroblasts of heart failure patients in vitro. Methods and results Human cardiac fibroblasts were obtained from endomyocardial biopsies of patients with reduced ejection fraction. Secretome- and gene expression analysis was performed on TNF-α (10 ng/ml) and TGF-β (5 ng/ml) treated and untreated fibroblasts. The analysis of the secretome in cell culture supernatant of these fibroblasts was performed by nano-LC-ESI tandem mass spectrometry. Subsequently, RNA was isolated from fibroblasts and expression analysis was performed using affymetrix gene chips and verified for the stimulation experiments using TaqMan. The secretome and gene expression studies are constistent regarding the most frequent ECM components. The proteins involved in the construction of the ECM accounted for 56% of the total protein intensity. The fibronectin represented the largest proportion of ECM proteins (50%), with collagens accounting for 29% and MMPs and TIMPs for approximately 5% and a small proportion of cytokines. In the secretome as well as in the gene expression, Il-6 and Il-8 showed the highest proportion of cytokines and type I as well as type IV (each approx. 40%) of collagens. MMP2, MMP1 and TIMP1 accounted for the largest proportion of MMPs and TIMPs. Stimulation with TGF-β and TNF-α led to changes in the composition of the cytokines and ECM proteins. After the stimulation with TNF-α, the proportion of cytokines increased from 3.1% to 6.6%, while the proportion of ECM proteins decreased slightly. Accordingly, after stimulation with TGF-β a well-known inductor of fibrosis, the proportion of collagens and other matrix proteins increased, while the proportion of cytokines decreased slightly. Conclusion In this study, we identified the most abundant proteins of the ECM and demonstrated their expansion caused by TGF-β stimulation of fibroblasts. Surprisingly, TNF-α led to an increase of cytokines secreted by the fibroblasts with a minimal reduction of ECM proteins. Here, the differentiated regulation of the fibroblast in the transformation of the ECM could be seen. TNF-α stimulation demonstrated to increase gene expression of the cytokines in fibroblasts, which in turn maintain inflammation with chemotactic effect. Hence, cardiac fibroblasts seem to be supporting cells for cardiac inflammation. There seemed to be no pro-fibrotic effect. In this work we could show the pro-inflammatory role of the cardiac fibroblast upon inflammatory stimulation. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

The Status of Bile Acids and Farnesoid X Receptor in Brain and Liver of Rats with Thioacetamide-Induced Acute Liver Failure.

Acute liver failure (ALF) leads to neurological symptoms defined as hepatic encephalopathy (HE). Although accumulation of ammonia and neuroinflammation are generally accepted as main contributors to HE pathomechanism, a buildup of bile acids (BA) in the blood is a frequent component of liver injury in HE patients. Recent studies have identified the nuclear farnesoid X receptor (FXR) acting via small heterodimer partner (SHP) as a mediator of BA-induced effects in the brain of ALF animals. The present study investigated the status of the BA–FXR axis in the brain and the liver, including selective changes in pertinent genes in thioacetamide (TAA)-induced ALF in Sprague–Dawley rats. FXR was found in rat neurons, confirming earlier reports for mouse and human brain. BA accumulated in blood but not in the brain tissue. Expression of mRNAs coding for Fxr and Shp was reduced in the hippocampus and of Fxr mRNA also in the cerebellum. Changes in Fxr mRNA levels were not followed by changes in FXR protein. The results leave open the possibility that mobilization of the BA–FXR axis in the brain may not be necessarily pathognomonic to HE but may depend upon ALF-related confounding factors.

Identification of Factors Affecting the Deterioration Rate of Fresh-Cut Lettuce in Modified Atmosphere Packaging

Fresh-cut lettuce, stored in modified atmosphere packaging (MAP), is a frequent component of bagged salads. However, even in MAP, fresh-cut lettuce is highly perishable due to non-microbial deterioration manifested by tissue liquefaction. The present study investigated the effects of plant physiology, lettuce processing, storage conditions, and exogenous stimuli on the deterioration of fresh-cut lettuce stored in MAP. Tests were performed on genotypes with a known rate of deterioration after processing. Leaf maturity of slowly deteriorating cultivars was generally negatively correlated with the shelf life, i.e., younger leaves deteriorated more slowly than older leaves. Leaf maturity of rapidly deteriorating cultivars was positively correlated with the shelf life, i.e., younger leaves deteriorated more rapidly than older leaves. The deterioration rate increased with temperature. Larger salad pieces deteriorated slower than smaller pieces and pieces that had additional wounding. Packaged samples of smaller size (less tissue per MAP bag with a constant volume) usually had a slower deterioration rate than larger samples. Reduced humidity in MAP slowed the rate of deterioration, particularly for rapidly deteriorating cultivars. Ethanol and hexanal accelerated the deterioration process of all cultivars in a dose-dependent manner. Sanitization of lettuce with chlorine, or treatments with abscisic acid, methyl jasmonate, salicylic acid, melatonin, or calcium lactate, had no obvious effect on the deterioration rate at the tested concentrations. This work provides insights into factors that need to be optimized to slow the rate of physiological deterioration of fresh-cut salad and identifies the most suitable conditions to reveal genotypic differences among lettuces.

Distribution of cyclopoid copepods in different subterranean habitats (southern Poland)

Abstract The majority of Polish studies on freshwater cyclopoids focused on surface water fauna. There are relatively few data on copepods of subterranean waters. Thus, in our research, copepods were collected from 37 different, mostly groundwater-dependent habitats (i.e. caves, springs, wells, interstitial and overhead environments) over a period of five years between 2005 and 2010. A total of 22 species belonging to eight genera were found. Some species, previously not recorded or known only from a few sites in Poland, proved to be a frequent component of subterranean communities.

From adverse childhood experiences to wellbeing: Portfolios of resilience

Resilience has always been present across human history, as we have contended with the wide array of adversities. Resilience research has gained significantly increasing momentum as a core principle of the trauma-informed approach to service. Resilience research supports not only targeting psychopathology symptom reduction, but also recognizing a portfolio of resilience components to harness in youth interventions. The present discussion considers the innovative research work of Hamby and colleagues (2020) in terms of their portfolio of resilience model and current evidence for a dual-factor model of social support (social support seeking and social support receiving). Social support is a frequent intervention component, particularly in developing help-seeking skills, within youth programming. Their findings support this factorial approach that considers the giving-receiving experience, and how the four categories of Interconnected, Rebuffed, Tended, and Isolated may relate to differing resilience profiles. This research raises important questions for future work in terms of the fit between seeking and receiving that places the youth centrally in this consideration. Youths’ journey from trauma to resilience in a way that validates their portfolio of resilience assets, strengths, and potential is central to a trauma-informed approach to youth well-being, as well as how we negotiate youth rights with our developmental, clinical and health responsibilities.

Health reception policies for asylum-seeking and refugee children in the Nordic countries

Abstract Background Health reception policies of asylum seekers have become an important part of welfare policy in the Nordic countries. The reception phase seems to have important consequences for the asylum seekers' future health, and addressing health needs early on is instrumental in facilitating individual rehabilitation, integration, educational achievement and labour market participation. Offering health assessment upon arrival may not only benefit the individual but also the society at large. Methods The material used in the study was obtained through desk research and combines national laws, acts, regulations, policy documents, national guidelines, research papers and evaluation reports to outline and compare Nordic reception polices and policy development from 1980-2018. Results Health reception of asylum seekers has changed considerably over time and varies according to national and local policies of the receiving country. There have been significant differences across the Nordic countries both with respect to coverage and type of health assessments. However, findings suggest a common overarching focus on infectious disease control and acute healthcare needs. Infectious disease control still seems to be a major component of today's health reception, whereas mental health has been a less frequent component in the reception. Conclusions The Nordic countries share similarities and differences in their development and implementation of health reception policies. Health reception policies and initiatives in the Nordic countries have changed considerably over time in relation to several factors, including perceived risk of infectious diseases, number of asylum seekers, as well as economic, political and societal factors. Further research is needed on whether and how these policies are carried out in practice, and to explore the effects and outcomes of these policies.

Postembolization Syndrome after Prostatic Artery Embolization: A Systematic Review.

Postembolization syndrome (PES) is the most common side effect of vascular embolization of solid organs. The aim of this review was to determine the incidence of PES and its individual components after prostatic artery embolization (PAE). A systematic review with a pre-specified search strategy for PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library was performed according to PRISMA guidelines. Studies in English regarding PAE in humans with 10 or more participants were eligible for inclusion. No restrictions on participant demographics or PAE technique were imposed. The search returned 378 references, of which 32 studies with a total of 2116 patients met the inclusion criteria. The results for overall PES frequency and individual PES components were presented as median (interquartile range, (IQR)). Overall median PES frequency was 25.5% (12.5–45.8). The two most frequent individual PES components were dysuria/urethral burning and local pain, with a median frequency of 21.7% (13.8–33.3) and 20% (5.4–29.4), respectively. Most outcome measures were characterized by a marked lack of uniformity and inconsistency in reporting across studies. Development of a uniform reporting system would help the clinicians recognize and treat PES accordingly.

Novel Metal Auxiliary (Device) to Prevent Cross-contamination of Elastomeric Modules

Emerging and prevalent infectious pose a significant threat to all stakeholders in the orthodontic office, namely, treating orthodontists, clinical assistants, and the patients. Due diligence must be applied to prevent further transmission of disease and infections. The elastomeric modules are one of the most frequent components of the fixed appliance. This clinical aid puts forth a novel clinical tip to prevent cross-contamination of and from elastomeric modules.

Comparative performance of prognostics for remaining useful life of bearing

The frequent failure components in rotary machinery are the rolling element bearings as it is important for prognostics of rolling element bearings. In this study, the data-driven technique was used to develop the prognostic models based on particle swarm optimization techniques. These models apply to estimate the rolling element bearing degradation and predict remaining useful life. Initially, the fault features were extracted by processing the vibration signals through wavelet packet decomposition based on the intensifying impulsive characteristics and superiority of features. Health indicators evaluate from fault features. The prognostic models are developed with the following approaches: Gated recurrent neural network, classification and regression tree, and Autoregressive-Moving Average models. Performances of models are verified on the basis of error in prediction. To verify the suggested methodology, an experiment on normal and faulty bearings was conducted using a bearing test rig. Experimental results clarify that the prognostic algorithms predict bearing remaining useful life with significant robustness. Outperformance of the proposed method and conformation of degree of accuracy from results indicate that remaining useful life is conjectured as inference compared with the published literature.

Community Structure and Functional Role of Limber Pine (Pinus flexilis) in Treeline Communities in Rocky Mountain National Park

Research Highlights: Limber pine (Pinus flexilis) is abundant in some alpine treeline ecotone (ATE) communities east of the Continental Divide in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) and the Colorado Front Range. Limber pine may be able to colonize the ATE under changing climate aided by directed seed dispersal by Clark’s nutcrackers (Nucifraga columbiana). Cronartium ribicola, white pine blister rust, is a growing threat to limber pine and may affect its functional role within the ATE. Background and Objectives: The ATE is sensitive, worldwide, to increasing temperature. However, the predicted advance of treeline under a changing climate may be modified by tree species composition and interactions. We aimed to (1) examine the conifer species composition and relative abundances in treeline communities with limber pine; (2) assess which functional roles limber pine assumes in these communities—tree island initiator, tree island component, and/or solitary tree; and (3) determine whether limber pine’s occurrence as a tree island initiator can be predicted by its relative abundance as a solitary tree. Materials and Methods: We selected four study sites in RMNP above subalpine forest limber pine stands. We sampled the nearest tree island to each of forty random points in each study site as well as solitary tree plots. Results: Across study sites, limber pine comprised, on average, 76% of solitary trees and was significantly more abundant as a solitary tree than Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) or subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). Limber pine was a frequent component of multi-tree islands in three study sites, the major component in one study site, and dominated single-tree islands at two study sites. At three of four study sites, no species had significantly greater odds of being a tree island initiator. Limber pine was found less often as a tree island initiator than predicted from its relative abundance as a solitary tree, given the likely role of solitary trees in tree island formation.

Not seeing the carbon for the trees? Why area-based targets for establishing new woodlands can limit or underplay their climate change mitigation benefits

Area-based targets for afforestation are a frequent and prominent component of policy discourses on forestry, land use and climate change emissions abatement. Such targets imply an expected contribution of afforestation to the net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, yet the nature of afforestation undertaken and its geographical distribution means that there is considerable uncertainty over the eventual emission reductions outcomes. This uncertainty is reduced if the net carbon balance is calculated for all potential afforestation sites, considering climate, soil characteristics and the possible types of afforestation (species and management regimes). To quantify the range of possible emissions outcomes for area-based afforestation targets, a new spatial analysis method was implemented. This improved the integration of spatial data on antecedent land use with mapped outputs from forest models defining the suitability and productivity of eleven forestry management alternatives. This above ground carbon data was then integrated with outputs from the ECOSSE (Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils – Sequestration and Emissions) model which simulates the soil carbon dynamics. The maps and other model output visualisations combining above and below ground carbon highlight where net carbon surpluses and deficits are likely to occur, how long they persist after afforestation and their relationships with antecedent land use, soils, weather conditions and afforestation management strategies. Using more productive land classes delivers more net sequestration per hectare and could mean greater carbon storage than anticipated by emissions reduction plans. Extensive establishment of lower yielding trees on low-quality ground, with organo-mineral soils could, though, result in net emissions that persist for decades. From the spatial analysis, the range of possible outcomes for any target area of planting is substantial, meaning that outcomes are highly sensitive to policy and implementation decisions on the mix of forestry systems preferred and to spatial targeting or exclusions (both at regional and local scales). The paper highlights the importance of retaining the existing presumption against planting of deep peat areas, but also that additional incentives or constraints may be needed to achieve the aggregate rates of emission mitigation implied by policy commitments. Supplementary carbon storage tonnage targets for new forestry would introduce a floor for carbon sequestration outcomes, but would still allow for flexibility in achieving an appropriate balance in the trade-offs between carbon sequestration and the many other objectives that new woodlands are expected to deliver.