Fragility Assessment Research Articles

Risk Assessment of Overturning of Freestanding Non-Structural Building Contents in Buckling-Restrained Braced Frames

The increasing demand in structural engineering now extends beyond collapse prevention to encompass business continuity planning (BCP). In response, energy dissipation devices have garnered significant attention for building response control. Among these, buckling-restrained braces (BRBs) are particularly favored due to their stable hysteretic behavior and well-established design provisions. However, BCP also necessitates the prevention of furniture overturning—an area that remains quantitatively underexplored in the context of buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBFs). Addressing this gap, this research designs BRBFs using various design criteria and performs incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) with artificially generated seismic waves. The results are compared with previously developed fragility curves for furniture overturning under different BRB design conditions. The findings demonstrate that the fragility of furniture overturning can be mitigated by a natural frequency shift, which alters the threshold of critical peak floor acceleration. These results, combined with hazard curves obtained from various locations across Japan, quantify the mean annual frequency of furniture overturning. The study reveals that increased floor acceleration in stiffer BRBFs can lead to a 3.8-fold higher risk of furniture overturning compared to frames without BRBs. This heightened risk also arises from the greater hazards at shorter natural periods due to stricter response reduction demands. The probabilistic risk analysis, which integrates fragility and hazard assessments, provides deeper insights into the evaluation of BCP.

Seismic fragility assessment of eccentric gravity column-core tube structures subjected to pulse-like ground motions

The effects of pulse-like ground motion and structural eccentricity on the seismic fragility and anti-collapse behavior of the new gravity column-core tube structural system are investigated. Numerical models of the gravity column-core tube structure are first established employing the CANNY program and validated against the shaking table test results. Subsequently, reference symmetric gravity column-core tube structures with 10-, 20- and 30-stories are designed, and then their eccentric structures are established by changing the nodal mass distribution. Ten pulse-like and ten corresponding non-pulse-like ground motion records are selected as the seismic excitations. The seismic fragility and anti-collapse analysis of these eccentric structures are conducted. The results show that the pulse-like ground motion significantly affects the seismic response and fragility of the gravity column-core tube structures, with an apparently higher probability of exceeding the limit states (Pf) for the pulse cases than those for the non-pulse cases. With increasing eccentricity, the Pf shows an increasing trend. Besides, both the pulse-like ground motion and the increase of eccentricity lead to a decline in structural anti-collapse capacity. The results are expected to provide a reference for the seismic design of the new gravity column-core tube structures.

Seismic risk assessment of partially self-centering braced frames designed with multiple-objective-based method

Partially self-centering building structures are promising seismic resilient systems by balancing the reduction of residual deformations, nonstructural loss, and initial construction costs. This research seeks to establish a multiple-objective-design (MOD) approach for partially self-centering buckling restrained braced frames (PSBRBFs) and explore the risks associated with collapse, demolition, and nonstructural damage in PSBRBFs designed using the MOD approach. The peak displacement is set as an objective for achieving the desired collapse-prevention performance while the residual displacement is set as another objective to ensure the expected post-earthquake repairability. To this end, the step-by-step procedures of the MOD method are introduced based on the prediction models of peak and residual displacements of PSBRBFs. 6 building cases are designed with the MOD method. The dynamic results demonstrate that analyzed PSBRBFs can simultaneously achieve the targeted peak and residual displacements, validating the effectiveness of the MOD method. Seismic fragility assessments are conducted utilizing incremental dynamic analyses (IDAs) to investigate the influence of different performance objectives (i.e., different target peak and residual displacements) on the collapse, demolition, and nonstructural damage probabilities of PSBRBFs. And seismic risks of the designed PSBRBFs are investigated with the consideration of earthquake hazard risks. Results indicate that the demolition risks of the designed PSBRBFs are all larger than the corresponding collapse risks. Based on the analysis results, high PID and low RID design targets were recommended for practical applications to achieve excellent performance against demolition and comparable performance in avoiding collapse and nonstructural damage.

Seismic fragility assessment of reinforced concrete and post-tensioned slab-column connections - reliability-based formulations for storey drift limits

Seismic fragility assessment of reinforced concrete and post-tensioned slab-column connections - reliability-based formulations for storey drift limits

Environmental Fragility in Commercial Forest Plantations Aiming at Sustainable Management

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the environmental fragility of two landscapes in which there is a predominance of commercial forest plantations, with the aim of analyzing this fragility through multicriterial evaluation, focusing on the planning of forest roads. Theoretical Framework: The theory of environmental fragility, multi-criteria evaluation methods, and principles of landscape management stand out, providing a solid basis for understanding the context of the investigation. These frameworks are crucial for analyzing the impact of forest roads on environmental variables such as water dynamics, sediment production, and soil erodibility. The integration of these theories allows for a comprehensive assessment of environmental fragility, essential for effective forest planning and road maintenance in forested areas Method: The methodology adopted involves a multi-criteria evaluation approach to assess environmental fragility in forest landscapes. Key criteria, including slope, distance from water bodies, soil erodibility, and topographic humidity, were integrated to create fragility maps. Data were collected through geographical and environmental analysis, processed with spatial analysis tools, and supplemented by principal component analysis to identify influential criteria. This approach enabled a detailed assessment of forest roads' environmental impact, supporting informed decisions in road planning and landscape management. Results and Discussion: The results revealed notable variations in environmental fragility. The analysis of forest roads highlighted their varying impact on environmental fragility. These results are framed within the context of environmental fragility and multi-criteria evaluation, emphasizing the role of criteria such as slope, proximity to water bodies, soil erodibility, and topographic humidity in assessing landscape degradation. The study underscores the need for careful forest road planning to mitigate environmental impacts and promotes the use of comprehensive evaluation methods in sustainable landscape management. Research Implications: The practical and theoretical implications of this research are discussed, providing insights into how the results can be applied or influence practices in the field of forest management and environmental conservation. These implications could encompass forest road planning, sustainable landscape management, and the development of environmental policies aimed at mitigating the impact of infrastructure on natural ecosystems.The study's findings emphasize the need for incorporating multi-criteria evaluation methods into forest planning processes to identify and mitigate areas of high environmental fragility. This approach can guide decision-makers in prioritizing areas for road maintenance, rehabilitation, or even rerouting to minimize ecological damage. Furthermore, the research underscores the importance of integrating environmental fragility assessments into broader forest management strategies, enhancing the sustainability of commercial forestry operations while preserving essential ecosystem services. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by introducing an innovative application of multi-criteria evaluation in assessing environmental fragility within forest landscapes, specifically in the context of forest road planning. The research combines various environmental criteria into a comprehensive fragility map, offering a nuanced understanding of landscape vulnerability that is less commonly addressed in existing studies. Notably, this methodology focused on forest roads has not been previously explored in the literature, highlighting the unique contribution of this research to the field.The relevance and value of this research are evidenced by its potential to influence forest management practices, particularly in the sustainable planning and maintenance of forest roads.

Efficient finite element reliability analysis employing sequentially-updated surrogate model for fragility curve derivation

As the threat of natural disasters to structures intensifies, risk assessment of infrastructure has gained much importance. Fragility curves are essential tools in predicting disaster-related losses and making disaster mitigation decisions. In this paper, we propose a new method to efficiently derive accurate fragility curves for structures with high levels of nonlinearity or complexity, addressing the computational challenges of conventional finite element reliability analysis (FERA). To reduce the computational cost for calculating probability of failure in FERA, the proposed method utilizes the first-order reliability method (FORM). However, even with this approach, the computational cost of deriving the fragility curve may remain high; therefore, a surrogate model is used to further reduce costs. By training the surrogate model using the initial structural damage probabilities for a few hazard intensities, an optimal starting point can be calculated for the subsequent FORM analysis. During the fragility analysis, the surrogate model can be updated sequentially to increase the efficiency of FORM analysis continuously. In particular, the training process of the surrogate model requires no separate or additional finite element analysis because it is constructed using previous FERA results. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are tested using conventional FERA and Monte Carlo simulations through a hypothetical short-column example. In addition, fragility curves are derived through a bridge flood fragility assessment considering the scour and seismic vulnerability assessment of a buried gas pipeline considering soil-structure interactions. The derived fragility curves closely match those derived using the conventional FERA, and the computational costs are reduced by 36.54 % and 52.38 %, respectively, compared with the conventional FERA, confirming its cost-effectiveness.

Seismic correlation coefficient evaluation for the application of separation of variables approach in fragility assessment

Seismic correlation can affect seismic probabilistic risk assessment results when components within the system have similar dynamic characteristics. While the fragility assessment methodology is well established, researches to evaluate and apply seismic correlation in fragility are still in progress. In this study, the seismic correlation coefficient (SCC) was quantitatively analyzed based on fragility assessment methods. In order to evaluate the SCC of several random variables associated with structure response in fragility assessment, a numerical analysis model of the structure was constructed and statistical analysis of the numerical results was performed. The SCC of the floor responses of the structural model considering random variables was evaluated from two perspectives. The first perspective involved applying variables individually or simultaneously when performing probabilistic structural analysis. The second perspective aimed to assess whether simplification of the structural analysis model affects the SCC. For this purpose, SCCs were calculated for each method and applied to a simplified failure sequence model to compare the combined fragility curves. The results of this study demonstrate the applicability of separation of variables method to the evaluation and generalization of the SCC for random variables of the fragility curve.

Serviceability fragility assessment of non-seismically designed railway viaducts in Turkey under near-field and far-field earthquakes

While many railway viaducts still in use in Turkish railway networks are located on active fault zones that produced historical destructive earthquakes, they are not seismically designed in accordance to current standards. This study aims to provide a better understanding about the serviceability fragility of such systems by conducting detailed probability-based seismic assessments under near-field and far-field earthquakes. To achieve this, firstly, 3D finite element models of a range of selected viaducts in Turkey were generated based on their original design drawings. The developed FE models were validated by comparing the analytical modal frequencies with the results of in-situ dynamic tests involving a series of acceleration measurements. Nonlinear time history analyses were then carried out under 25 near-field and 25 far-field real three-component ground motion recordings to obtain the seismic response of each selected viaduct. Subsequently, probabilistic seismic demand models were defined using linear regression analysis to determine relationships between engineering demand parameters (EDPs) and ground motion intensity measures (IMs). Peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral acceleration at 1.0 s (Sa (1.0)) were used as the IM parameter, while the maximum lateral displacement of the bridge spans for different service velocities defined in the Eurocode was considered as the EDP at serviceability damage state. Finally, analytical fragility curves for all the selected railway viaducts were developed considering maximum damage probability for the IM levels. The results, in general, demonstrate the seismic vulnerability of the existing viaducts in Turkey. It is shown that while at low speed limits the viaducts exposed to far-field ground motions were more vulnerable than those under near-field ground motions, at high speed limits the viaducts subjected to near-field ground motions were more vulnerable. Also, it is seen that reinforced concrete and masonry viaducts are generally more vulnerable to earthquakes than the steel viaducts. The outcomes of this study should prove useful for the seismic risk assessment, loss estimation and rehabilitation of the railway transportation networks in future studies.

Seismic Fragility Assessment of Equipment in Nuclear Power Plant Structures Considering Nonlinear Hysteretic Behavior of Squat Walls

Accurate seismic risk assessment of structures necessitates precise fragility analysis. This study focuses on the seismic fragility assessment of equipment in nuclear power plant structures, particularly emphasizing the influence of nonlinear hysteretic behavior exhibited by squat walls. By developing and comparing linear and nonlinear models of reactor containment and auxiliary buildings within a nuclear power plant, this research elucidates the significant impact of nonlinear behaviors on the seismic response and subsequent fragility curves of associated equipment and systems. Utilizing a lumped-mass stick model, the study efficiently captures the characteristics of squat shear walls, facilitating the calculation of floor response spectra and fragility for nuclear facility structures. The impacts of pinching and degradation, inherent characteristics of a squat wall’s hysteresis under cyclic loading, were identified as significant. These include the shift and change in amplitude of the floor response’s peak, along with amplification in high-frequency domains. Fragility assessments, informed by seismic response analysis, indicate significant variations in fragility curve parameters based on equipment location and frequency. The findings question the effectiveness of traditional response factor methods and general regression techniques in accurately addressing the complex probabilistic seismic demands of equipment, thus highlighting the importance of using direct analysis for calculating fragility in situations with significant nonlinearity.

Collapse fragility analysis of historical masonry buildings considering in-plane and out-of-plane response of masonry walls.

This paper explores the seismic fragility assessment of historical masonry buildings in the context of performance-based earthquake engineering, using multiple-record incremental dynamic analyses (MR-IDA). The methodology is applied to two case studies, the first being a stiff monumental structure, and the second a tall and slender masonry building. Both case studies are modelled in the OpenSees software using three-dimensional macroelements that account for the in-plane (IP) and out-of-plane (OOP) response of masonry walls. Simultaneously, the numerical models account for the influence of non-linear connections in floor-to-wall interfaces and wall-to-wall interlocking. The record-to-record variability induced by the random nature of the ground motion is addressed through earthquake selection consistent with the variability of European hazard. Ground motion records are normalised at a uniform level of seismic intensity to be sequentially increased for the computation of IDA curves. Once IDA curves and fragility functions are derived, the failure results are thoroughly discussed. The fragility functions accounting for the uncertainties arising from the record-to-record variability are contrasted against the results of the seismic assessments affected by multiple sources of uncertainty in material and modelling parameters from a previous study. Finally, the fragility curves derived from the methodology presented herein are directly compared with fragility functions from probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA). Overall, IDA-based fragility functions are found to provide more conservative predictions than the ones obtained from the cloud-based approach using unscaled records.

Seismic fragility and resilience assessment of large‐span cable‐stayed bridges under multi‐support ground motions with non‐Gaussian characteristics

Seismic fragility and resilience assessment of large‐span cable‐stayed bridges under multi‐support ground motions with non‐Gaussian characteristics

Proposal of a Nonlinear Spring Model on Piping Support Structures for an Elasto-Plastic Response Analysis Method

Abstract In probabilistic risk assessment against earthquakes (seismic PRA) for nuclear power plants, the development of a realistic response analysis method for the fragility assessment of piping systems considering input seismic motions exceeding design assumptions is one of the important issues. Usually, piping systems exhibit complex three-dimensional shapes. The arrangement and stiffness of the piping support structures significantly affect the response characteristics of the entire piping system. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a realistic response analysis method of piping systems including piping support structures. In this study, a method for modeling the elasto-plastic hysteresis characteristics of piping support structures is developed to establish a seismic response analysis method of piping systems including piping support structures. First, we formulate an elatsto-plastic spring model that can express the elasto-plastic hysteresis characteristics of a piping support structure. Subsequently, we perform a simulation analysis for the loading test of a piping support structure using this model. As the analysis results and test results were in good agreement, we confirmed the effectiveness of the formulation of the model. The main contents, such as the formulation of the elasto-plastic spring model, the simulation analysis of the loading test, and the comparison between the analysis results and the test results, and the results of this study are reported in this paper.

Seismic fragility estimation through real-time hybrid simulation and surrogate-based multi-fidelity Monte Carlo predictor

The intricate dynamic responses of structures, particularly when confronted with uncertainty, poses significant challenges in constructing reliable analytical models, thus resulting in unreliable fragility assessment. This study presents an approach that integrates data-driven techniques with real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) to achieve reliable fragility analysis. RTHS data and imprecise surrogate models are fused using a multi-fidelity Monte Carlo predictor (MFMC), yielding unbiased estimations for parameters of fragility curve. The MFMC predictor can be considered as an optimized forecasting tool that harnesses the computational efficiency of low-fidelity simulations and the precision of high-fidelity experiments. RTHS is utilized for obtaining high-fidelity experimental data, part of which is leveraged to establish low-fidelity surrogate models, ultimately enabling multi-fidelity analysis through direct data-to-data analysis. A two-story steel moment-resisting frame equipped with self-centering viscous dampers is used as a proof-of-concept to demonstrate the proposed method. Structural and ground motion uncertainties are incorporated to reflect practical engineering environment. The low-fidelity Kriging models were built using portion of high-fidelity RTHS data. Simulation and experimental investigations were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach. The results suggest that the proposed method provides a promising tool for accurately evaluating seismic fragility, particularly when simulation-based methods are not feasible.

Development of Fragility Curves and Assessment of Mass Irregular Structures with Fixed Base and Base Isolated Under Multiple Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Structures are usually built to withstand the mainshock, aftershocks offer extra difficulties. Aftershocks frequently occur following an earthquake result in multiple earthquakes, therefore they are not isolated events. Due to damage advancement, and stiffness and strength deterioration, a damaged structure might collapse under a multiple earthquakes. Based to a probabilistic perspective, the current study investigates the effect of multiple earthquakes on the likelihood of buildings to collapse. This study’s primary objective is to determine how multiple earthquakes affect fixed- and base-isolated structures. In this context, recorded 14 single and 7 multiple earthquakes with various properties were used to examine and assess three-dimensional reinforced concreteframes with four-storey, having fixed base and isolated base. Dynamic analysis, of the three-dimensional structures are carried out in SAP2000. Fragility curves for fixed base and base isolated structures were produced using the incremental dynamic analysis approach. To find the effect of mass irregularity due to single and multiple earthquakes, mass irregularity is placed at every floor level in each structure. The results are compared in terms of floor displacements, floor accelerations, storey drift, base shear, residual displacement, and probability of collapse for fixed base and base isolated structures. The findings highlight the importance of analyzing the structures subjected to multiple earthquakes. The probability of collapse is reduced for mass irregular structures with base isolation in comparison with fixed base structures, when subjected to multiple earthquakes. The designer’s should select base isolation over the fixed base system when the building’s location may suffer multiple earthquakes more frequently.

Seismic performance assessment of stone masonry buildings: Efficacy of various strengthening elements

Post the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, various codes and guidelines were introduced and implemented to enhance the seismic resistance of masonry structures. These provisions encompass diverse seismic measures such as incorporating horizontal bands and vertical reinforcements to fortify structures against seismic forces. Nevertheless, a comprehensive investigation and validation of effectiveness of horizontal bands and vertical reinforcement on the performance of such buildings is still lacking. This paper addresses this gap by presenting the seismic fragility assessment of stone masonry buildings constructed with mud mortar (SMM) and cement mortar (SMC), with a case study involving three distinct building prototypes, presented in the catalogue by the Department of Urban Development and Building Construction (DUDBC), Nepal. The research evaluates the effectiveness of several strengthening components on the buildings' performance, making comparisons among four different scenarios: (a) RM (a reinforced model with all horizontal bands, vertical reinforcement, and through stones), (b) RM-WOV (a reinforced model excluding vertical reinforcement), (c) RM-WOV-St (a reinforced model excluding vertical reinforcement and stitches), and (d) URM (an unreinforced model lacking all horizontal bands, vertical reinforcement, and through stones). The cracking mechanisms reveals the importance of the horizontal bands and through stones. The fragility analysis performed for slight, moderate, extensive and collapse damage states shows that unreinforced models are more susceptible than their reinforced counterparts, irrespective of whether mud or cement mortar is used. The maximum reduction in probability of exceedance of collapse and extensive damage for SMM and SMC buildings with the introduction of horizontal bands at sill and lintel level together with through stones are around 82 % and 81 % respectively. This shows that horizontal bands at sill and lintel level play an important role in preventing the damage of the buildings. Furthermore, it is found that the effect of using vertical reinforcement and horizontal stitches is minimal in preventing the structural damage in cement mortar buildings. However, for mud mortar buildings, these measures have a noticeable effect.

Seismic performance assessment of a base-isolated hospital building subjected to February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye earthquakes (Mw 7.7 Pazarcık and Mw 7.6 Elbistan) and seismic fragility analysis considering different construction stages

The construction period of large structures such as hospitals can be prolonged due to complex construction processes. The behavior of frictional pendulum systems (FPSs) is strongly influenced by the seismic weight of the superstructure and the corresponding coefficient of friction. Therefore, the effects of the isolator behavior, which varies throughout the construction stages (CSs), on structural responses should be evaluated. Existing literature lacks adequate investigation into the behavior of isolated structures subjected to earthquakes during CSs. To address this gap, this paper investigates the structural performance of a base-isolated hospital building equipped with FPSs that experienced residual displacements during the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye earthquakes (Mw 7.7 Pazarcık and Mw 7.6 Elbistan). At the time of the earthquakes, the building was still under construction (65–70 % complete). In addition to the hospital building under consideration, there were three more hospital buildings equipped with FPSs under construction during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş-Türkiye earthquakes in Türkiye. The seismic behavior and residual displacements of the structure during this CS were evaluated and numeric results were validated with real data measured in the field. Moreover, fragility analyses were performed for different CSs of the hospital building to reveal the probabilities of damage for base-isolated buildings exposed to earthquakes at various CSs. For fragility assessment, damage states (slight, moderate, extensive, collapse) were defined and four damage measures were chosen. Thus, the extent to which construction stages affected which types of damage was determined. A total of 1296 nonlinear time-history analysis were conducted to obtain fragility curves for all CSs and damage measures considering lower bound, nominal, and upper bound values of isolators. Selected isolated hospital building showed vulnerability in maximum top floor acceleration (MTFA) and maximum isolator displacement (MID) damage measures, but resilience in maximum roof drift ratio (MRDR) and maximum inter-story drift ratio (MIDR) damage measures. For the design basis earthquake (DBE) level, the probability of reaching the extensive damage state was 5.25 % for the MID, 11.39 % for MTFA, and 0 % for MIDR and MRDR. Similarly, for the maximum considered earthquake (MCE) level, these values were determined as 34.09 % for MID, 43.42 % for MTFA, and 0 % for MIDR and MRDR. The analysis revealed that while the probability of damage to the base isolation system was not related to CSs, residual displacements increased as construction progressed. Collapse thresholds for MIDR and MRDR demand exceptionally severe seismic events. As construction progresses, probabilities of exceeding damage states increase for MIDR and MRDR, indicating heightened vulnerability.

Probabilistic curvature limit states of corroded circular RC bridge columns: Data-driven models and application to lifetime seismic fragility analyses

Reinforcement corrosion has been recognized as an influential factor in the seismic fragility, both demand and capacity models, of aging reinforced concrete (RC) bridges. For capacity models, accurate and applied prediction tools accounting for aging effects are yet to be well established. Current practices usually perform numerical analyses to obtain time-variant capacity models, which are time-consuming particularly when multi-source structural and environmental uncertainties are considered and sometimes even suffer computational non-convergence. To address these issues, this study leverages a rigorously optimized artificial neural network architecture to develop data-driven models for rapid estimates of probabilistic curvature capacity of corroded circular RC bridge columns with flexural failure modes. An extensive database of multi-level curvature limit states (i.e. slight, moderate, severe, and complete) is created through experimentally validated moment–curvature analyses. A new threshold for the moderate limit state is defined based on the strain of core concrete, rather than cover concrete, to account for the potential full erosion of the cover with drastic corrosion. The data-driven probabilistic capacity models are applied to aid the lifetime seismic fragility assessment of a typical highway bridge, where the spectral acceleration at 1.0 s (Sa-10), peak ground velocity (PGV), and Housner intensity (HI) are found consistently, for the first time, as optimal intensity measures for probabilistic demand modeling of RC columns with different extents of aging effects. For the ease of application, the database and code for the data-driven probabilistic capacity models are accessible at https://bit.ly/3uAa8EY .

Optimal intensity measures for seismic fragility assessment of corrosion-damaged RC bridge piers

Optimal intensity measures for seismic fragility assessment of corrosion-damaged RC bridge piers

Gaussian process regression driven rapid life-cycle based seismic fragility and risk assessment of laminated rubber bearings supported highway bridges subjected to multiple uncertainty sources

Structural attributes, corrosion of steel rebars in reinforced concrete (RC) columns, thermal oxidative aging of inherent rubber in laminated rubber bearings (LRBs), replacement of LRBs, and the time-dependent seismic hazard level at the bridge site are well recognized as the main factors that affect the accurate assessment of the seismic performance of RC bridges implemented with LRBs. However, the probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) and probabilistic structural capacity model (PSCM) of deteriorated bridge components may not exhibit homoscedastic log-linearity. And the expansion of seismic fragility surfaces and seismic risk curves in the temporal dimension requires a considerable computational cost on the nonlinear analysis, which regretfully has not been well addressed in current studies. To fill in this gap, this study proposes a life-cycle based seismic fragility and risk assessment framework for LRBs supported RC bridges considering deterioration mechanisms of bridge components during their life cycles demonstrated by a three-span LRBs supported highway bridge considering multiple uncertainties such as the replacement interval for LRBs. In this framework, Gaussian process regression (GPR) is employed to effectively construct the PSDM and PSCM of deteriorated bridge components, and then the time-dependent seismic fragility surfaces of bridge components and bridge system are established. Life-cycle based seismic risk analysis is conducted to quantify the coupled time-dependent effects of deterioration and site seismic hazard on a newly built bridge during its design service life and a deteriorated bridge within its remaining service life, respectively. Results indicate that GPR can successfully capture the nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity characteristics of PSDM and PSCM, leading to a significant reduced number of nonlinear analysis cases to generate the time-dependent seismic fragility surfaces and seismic risk curves. Consequently, the proposed framework using GPR can significantly improve the accuracy and efficiency of life-cycle based seismic performance assessment when uncertainties of structural attributes, deterioration progress and seismic hazard are taken into consideration.

Hierarchical and mixed uncertainty quantification for simulation-based structural seismic fragility analysis

Seismic fragility assessments (SFA) encompass significant uncertainties, including ground motions, materials, geometry, boundaries, and modeling, which impart inherent uncertainties to the fragility curve. Quantifying these uncertainties is essential for informed decision-making in earthquake disaster mitigation. This paper presents a hierarchical uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework for simulation-based SFA, which can address mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The framework comprises two levels: At Level 1, ground motion uncertainties are accounted for through record-to-record variation, while structural parameter uncertainties are captured using well-defined probability distributions. The quantification of uncertainty in seismic fragility is accomplished using mean and quantile fragility curves, representing the average outcome and the dispersion of structural fragility, respectively. Fuzziness is also introduced to enhance the objectivity of failure determination. Level 2 addresses uncertainties in the distribution hyper-parameters of structural variables through evidence theory, facilitating an understanding of their influence on the seismic fragility curve and quantifying uncertainty in mean and quantile fragility curves. This UQ framework builds upon the multivariate seismic fragility analysis method, integrating Kriging regression for seismic demand prediction and logistic regression for generating multivariate seismic fragility functions. The proposed framework is validated numerically on an existing three-span reinforced concrete continuous girder bridge, affirming its practical utility and reliability.