Fragile Contexts Research Articles

Deliberative forums in fragile contexts: Challenges from the field

What does it actually take to run a deliberative mini-public (DMP)? This article unmasks the taken-for-granted assumptions of one of the most popular democratic innovations in the past decade by applying their design features in fragile political contexts. Drawing on 3 years of fieldwork in communities recovering from armed conflict and police brutality in the Philippines, we identify foundational challenges to DMPs in relation to their core design features: sortition and long-form deliberation. Our goal in documenting these challenges is not to devalue DMPs but to spotlight limitations that cannot be overcome despite the best intentions. In so doing, this article hopes to advance an honest conversation about what these DMPs can reasonably achieve, as well as the harms they can potentially cause, especially in societies where precarity is the norm rather than the exception.

Futuring Fragility: Embracing uncertainty, identifying opportunity, unlocking development

AbstractMotivationClose to a third of the world's population and more than 80% of people living in extreme poverty live in contexts of fragility. With agencies such as the OECD and UNDP conceiving of such places in terms of multiple and serious risks, the framing has come to be one of pathology: fragile contexts are defined by deficits with respect to idealized governance and sustainable development goals. In consequence, development options are locked into managing risks—confining opportunities to develop potential.PurposeCan strategic foresight unlock the development potential of fragile societies?Approach and methodsBecause there is still little documentation of foresight initiatives in contexts of fragility, the approach here is theoretical and conceptual. We draw on literature from the fields of fragility, foresight, and cognition, as well as insights from expert exchanges and roundtables.FindingsIt is uncertainty, not risk, that lies at the heart of fragility—an insight that challenges standard decision‐making. With the latter being based on analogical reasoning, it cannot be logically applied under conditions of uncertainty. If, instead, we adopt an heuristic for decision‐making that acknowledges uncertainty to not only entail risk but also opportunity, strategic foresight is well‐placed to help revive development.Policy ImplicationsFirst, fragility has to be reframed to acknowledge the centrality of uncertainty, not risk, in approaching fragility. Whilst evidence from the past is important, scrutinizing past paradigms and envisioning different futures is crucial.Second, strategic foresight can help uncover fragile societies’ capacities and potential. It can help shift from analyses dominated by a concern with lacks and deficits, to analyses which seek relative strengths and opportunities. Just as strong states are not strong in every respect, fragile states may have more to offer than meets the eye.Third, debates need to be more open, less ideologically laden. Dominant thinking on fragility is rife with seemingly imperturbable underpinnings: for example, the mantra that “without peace there can be no development, and without development there can be no peace.” While such propositions contain some truth, treating them as absolute and universally applicable, limits both thinking and policy options. Strategic foresight is well placed to provide a fresh view on fragility.

Forum: Infrastructure

It was Europe’s wake up call: the news reported that a huge gas pipeline running across the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany had exploded (Oltermann 2022). The explosion caused a release of gas and ruptured the pipeline, abruptly stopping the flow of gas. In the aftermath of the Russian attack and war on Ukraine, we have seen time and again how infrastructure becomes the main stage for power struggles and politics (infrastructure destroyed for various reasons) on the one hand, and how today’s infrastructures scale up to a global level and then back down to local arenas, affecting the lives of millions of people, on the other. While the pipeline explosion is only one recent example of the impact and mobilisation of infrastructures in today’s fragile global context, it well illustrates the ways in which infrastructures create and dismantle relationships, politics, connections, and disconnections, sometimes on a massive scale.

Impact of transport superiority on ecosystem health in arid regions: A case study of southern Xinjiang, China

The increasingly improved transportation infrastructure network is the prerequisite and foundation for driving regional development. Scientifically investigating the mechanisms by which the transport superiority degree (TSD) in arid regions affects the health of ecosystems holds significant practical value and importance for ecosystem protection and regional sustainable development. This study investigates the impact of the TSD on the Ecosystem Health Levels (EHL) in Southern Xinjiang, China, an area characterized by its arid climate and ecological vulnerability. Arid regions, such as Southern Xinjiang, often face unique ecological challenges, including water scarcity, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss, which can be exacerbated by human activities including transportation infrastructure development. By leveraging multi-source remote sensing data, this research aims to uncover the intricate dynamics between TSD and EHL in such a fragile ecological context. The findings of this study are critical for understanding the balance between infrastructural development and environmental conservation in arid regions and provide valuable insights for sustainable planning and policy-making in similar ecological settings. The research results show the following: (1) Over the study period, county-scale TSD in southern Xinjiang generally increased, while the conditions of EHL deteriorated, with higher EHL in the eastern counties than in the western counties. (2) Bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals a significant spatial dependency between county-scale TSD and EHL, with primary relationship types being LH (Low TSD − High EHL) and HL (High TSD − Low EHL). (3) Spatial regression model results indicate that an increase in TSD leads to the deterioration of county-scale EHL, and during the study period, it was observed that the interference of TSD on EHL gradually weakened.

Can Military Become an Accountable Humanitarian Actor?: Perception of Humanitarian Norms and Modus Operandi of the ROK Army and Japan Self Defense Force

Purpose: The study aims to investigate the extent to which these military entities, the ROK Army (ROKA) and the Japan Self Defense Forces (JSDF) perceive humanitarian norms and operational guidelines as accountable humanitarian actors.
 Originality: Given that the role of military in offshore humanitarian action has become both prominent and complex, understanding the sensitization of these organizations to key humanitarian principles is a critical facet of assessing their capacity to engage in relief operations in an ethical and legitimate manner.
 Methodology: The survey with structured questionnaires was administered to 104 officers from the ROKA and 101 veteran officers from the JSDF including focus group interviews. Independent sample t-tests were conducted to identify differences in perceptions between the two groups, utilizing SPSS 25 as the analytical tool.
 Result: Both the ROKA and the JSDF demonstrated a relatively high level of awareness and commitment to humanitarian principles, though variations in perception were observed. Notably, differences emerged in their perceptions of guidelines for the use of military assets in humanitarian operations, with the ROKA exhibiting a comparatively higher level of perception in certain areas. The JSDF, on the other hand, showed higher levels of perception regarding the impacts of complex humanitarian emergencies, particularly natural disasters.
 Conclusions and Implication: These findings underscore the need for tailored training of humanitarian action, and transparent communication and coordination strategies with civilian agencies to enhance their effectiveness in addressing humanitarian crises in fragile contexts.

Criminal governance and public resources: The case of paramilitaries and health care provision in Colombia

Non-state armed actors can shape provision of public goods by impeding provision, becoming providers themselves, or taking control of the means for provision. While the literature is prolific at analyzing the former two channels, the third one is underexplored. How does criminal governance affect public goods provisioning via state capture? And do these dynamics facilitate the survival of non-state armed groups? This paper seeks to answer these questions. I argue that institutional cooptation by non-state armed actors (NSAs) affects public goods provisioning negatively in contexts of institutional decentralization. In these circumstances, public resource transfers can strengthen rather than weaken NSAs. To test my argument, I analyze the Colombian case, where criminal insurgencies took control of and diverted public health funds toward their pockets. Using data on health care providers, as well as the presence of NSAs at the municipal level, I show via two-way fixed effects models that municipalities experiencing paramilitary cooptation see a decrease in public health care provision. Similarly, public resource transfers decrease paramilitary demobilizations. This has important implications for the evaluation of decentralization as a strategy for political stabilization, peacekeeping, and development in fragile contexts, as well as for understanding the impact of public spending in strengthening rather than weakening NSAs.

Improving global value chain governance: Empowering women through third-party interventions within institutionally fragile contexts

Promoting women's empowerment in institutionally fragile contexts has been overlooked in global value chain (GVC) analysis, despite the recognition of its importance by UN SDG 5. Building on GVC governance and feminist institutional theories, we evaluate three aspects of an intervention led by an international non-governmental organization to empower women within socially and economically fragile environments. Using a unique dataset collected between 2018 and 2020 from 2,143 individuals in artisanal mining communities, our findings show that the intervention that promotes economic incentives and facilitates female leadership is positively related to women's inclusion and some empowerment indicators, yet its self-sustainability remains difficult within these challenging contexts.

Introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in humanitarian and fragile contexts: Perspectives from stakeholders in four African countries

ABSTRACT Childhood pneumonia causes a significant burden of preventable child morbidity and mortality in Chad, Guinea, Somalia/Somaliland, and South Sudan. Leaders from these countries have committed to reducing this burden and are preparing to introduce the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into their immunization programs. To support long-term sustainability for expected PCV introductions in settings afflicted by prolonged humanitarian crises this research explores national stakeholders’ perspectives on contextual factors that may influence optimal vaccine implementation. This qualitative study used purposive sampling to identify and interview stakeholders involved in vaccine decision-making. Interview transcripts were analyzed through the framework method, an approach involving charting data into pre-populated matrices. Findings from interviews with 16 key informants from government, partner organizations, and international health agencies fit within the following four overarching themes: (1) population-level vulnerabilities to pneumonia, exacerbated by climatic risks and low levels of maternal education; (2) disease burden and the interest in enhancing surveillance to monitor vaccine impact and integrate disease control efforts; (3) policy processes, including formalizing vaccine decision-making; and (4) vaccine implementation preparation, including the conduct of robust communication campaigns, training, and cold chain upgrades. This research explores perspectives from leaders in these countries which are at pivotal moments in their journeys toward introducing PCV. Widespread commitment among leaders, in addition to financial support, will facilitate vaccine introduction. Further, fostering a shared understanding among partners about context-specific determinants of program success will help build tailored implementation strategies for each country.

Identifying the COVID-19 Transmission Channels on Poverty and Food Security in Refugee-Hosting Districts of Uganda

It is well documented that COVID-19 increased poverty and food insecurity all over the world, especially in fragile contexts. However, it is still unclear how its effects were transmitted to these two outcomes. This paper aims to identify the mechanisms through which COVID-19 affected poverty and food insecurity in refugee-hosting districts in Uganda. We use path analysis with household fixed effects to identify the main pathways, differentiating between refugee and host households, and considering the heterogeneity among them in terms of income source (agricultural vs. non-agricultural households), and market position (food net-buyers vs. net-sellers vs. self-sufficient households). The analysis shows that COVID-19 significantly affected labour participation and increased food value chain disruption, increasing poverty and food insecurity. Refugees have been affected more than hosts by the COVID-19 direct and indirect effects. Host households could benefit from the increase in food prices, while refugees were mainly affected by the effect on the labour market. As expected, net-buyers are the group most affected by food value chain disruption and, along with non-agricultural households, the ones that were most affected in terms of food security.

Assessing Vaccination Delivery Strategies for Zero-Dose and Under-Immunized Children in the Fragile Context of Somalia.

Somalia is one of 20 countries in the world with the highest numbers of zero-dose children. This study aims to identify who and where zero-dose and under-vaccinated children are and what the existing vaccine delivery strategies to reach zero-dose children in Somalia are. This qualitative study was conducted in three geographically diverse regions of Somalia (rural/remote, nomadic/pastoralists, IDPs, and urban poor population), with government officials and NGO staff (n = 17), and with vaccinators and community members (n = 52). The data were analyzed using the GAVI Vaccine Alliance IRMMA framework. Nomadic populations, internally displaced persons, and populations living in remote and Al-shabaab-controlled areas are three vulnerable and neglected populations with a high proportion of zero-dose children. Despite the contextual heterogeneity of these population groups, the lack of targeted, population-specific strategies and meaningful engagement of local communities in the planning and implementation of immunization services is problematic in effectively reaching zero-dose children. This is, to our knowledge, the first study that examines vaccination strategies for zero-dose and under-vaccinated populations in the fragile context of Somalia. Evidence on populations at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases and barriers to vital vaccination services remain critical and urgent, especially in a country like Somalia with complex health system challenges.

Political economy of sub-national fragility and armed conflict in Northwest Nigeria

ABSTRACT Insecurity in Nigeria’s Northwest region is fast deteriorating due to armed conflict emanating from the activities of jihadist terrorist groups, armed bandits, and other organised criminal gangs. This has claimed the lives of thousands, and displaced many others, resulting in a humanitarian crisis. While previous studies have highlighted the triggers and drivers of armed conflict in fragile states such as poverty, inequality, unemployment, poor governance, weak institutions, and climate change to mention a few, as well as the important role of the nation-state in providing safety and security for its citizens, little attention has been given to the relationship between sub-national fragility and armed conflict. This research draws attention to the less obvious ‘hidden enablers’ of armed conflict within the context of sub-national fragility, and how it inhibits their institutional capacities to guarantee the social welfare and security of their citizens. The absence of which contributes to the deteriorating insecurity situation in Nigeria’s troubled Northwest region. These include the debt crisis and declining internally generated revenue affecting the sub-national states. The research therefore advances the argument on sub-national fragility, by examining how it contributes to manifestations of armed conflict, and its implications for peace and security in Nigeria’s Northwest region.

Development of online teaching expertise in fragile and conflict-affected contexts

What we know about the development of online teaching expertise during the COVID-19 pandemic is scarce. Current research has concentrated primarily on the obstacles encountered by university teachers, leaving a significant gap in our understanding of the strategies they employ not only to survive but to flourish in online teaching. Furthermore, there is a significant bias toward Western perspectives in existing research and it remains unclear whether Western theories of expertise development are relevant in deprived, fragile, and conflict-affected contexts. The current study set out to explore how university teachers developed their online teaching expertise during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Palestinian context. Narrative episode interviews were conducted with 16 university teachers working at a Palestinian higher education institution in Gaza city. Thematic analysis revealed five themes of online teaching expertise development: domain, mechanisms, motives, consequences, and emotions. Implications for practitioners and administrators are discussed together with future research directions.

MNE nonmarket strategy in a changing world: Complexities, varieties, and a values-based approach

Burgeoning complexity and variability in the political and social contexts in which multinational enterprises (MNEs) operate has led to increased research on MNE nonmarket strategy. This focus is enhanced by ethical concerns about the nonmarket practices of big business, particularly in institutionally fragile or nascent market contexts. In this introduction to our special issue on the complexities and varieties of nonmarket strategy, we review the extant research on MNE nonmarket strategy, specifically on corporate political activity and corporate social responsibility. Our review suggests that to address the complexities related to nonmarket strategy in a changing international context, corporate stewardship is inadequate and MNEs must adopt a more authentic and culturally embedded values-based nonmarket strategy approach, which can contribute to long-term advantage. Subsequently, we introduce and synthesize the papers in our special issue and present a research agenda for furthering scholarship on values-based nonmarket strategy.

From Green to Red: New Energy Projects and Violent Conflict in Fragile Contexts

From Green to Red: New Energy Projects and Violent Conflict in Fragile Contexts

How do higher degree research students and supervisors navigate ethics‐in‐practice for educational research in sensitive or ‘fragile’ contexts?

AbstractThe past decade has seen increased attention paid to the ethical complexities of educational research undertaken in sensitive or ‘fragile’ settings, where trauma, marginalisation and socio‐political precarity are prevalent. Yet, despite increased awareness of micro‐ethical issues encountered in the field, there is limited research that engages with these issues from the perspective of higher degree research (HDR) students, and few studies that focus on supervisory practices to promote micro‐ethical reflexivity. Here, we draw on interviews with HDR students and supervisors researching in the fragile context of forced migration and related settings of conflict and crisis, exploring issues of gendered violence, sexuality, cultural and linguistic marginalisation, and mental and physical well‐being, to explore their experiences with micro‐ethical complexities in fieldwork. We consider student and supervisor sense of preparedness to engage reflexively with micro‐ethical challenges and identify key supports for navigating ethics‐related dilemmas. Importantly, in exploring gaps in extant supports, we consider issues of individual, collective and institutional responsibility regarding HDR student and supervisor engagement with micro‐ethics, posing key questions about duty of care for novice researchers working in fragile or sensitive contexts.

Reading and designing the forests: notes for a sustainable reconfiguration of the metropolitan territories

In this historical moment, the awareness of the ecological emergency involves simplistic debates around trees, forests, woodlands, and in general on greening projects as the best way to improve environmental qualities of cities, peri-urban fringes and fragile contexts. Despite their impact on the modification of territories, the forest's plantation practices remain mostly detached from territorial and landscape planning disciplines. Understanding the forests as a component of a complex ecosystem should be the fundamental base to develop sustainable designing actions, and studying the vegetal strata can give important indications about ongoing long- term spatial dynamics: how to read these traces and how to manage them for further sustainable reconfiguration of the territories?

Effectiveness of Trade Union Strategies in Primary, Secondary and Technical Education of the Democratic Republic of Congo

In Democratic Republic of Congo, the State’s limited powers compels it to engage in permanent discussions with vested interests. On basis of fieldwork, this article analyzes how interactions unfold between actors in the primary, secondary and technical education sector, with a particular focus on trade unions and government. It relies therefore on the concept of strategy and asks whether the trade union strategies are effective. It finds that the political, economic and social context significantly influence trade union claims and strategies, the effectiveness thereof, and the overall professional relations in the sector. Accordingly, the strategies must be constantly adapted to the changing contexts and professional relations. By emphasizing the central role played by vested interests in fragile state contexts, the article contributes to a better understanding of policymaking processes in Democratic Republic of Congo.

Benefits and risks: Views of humanitarian organizations in Lebanon on corporate assistance.

Compounding humanitarian and political crises within and across countries have been met with shrinking public resources for coordination, recovery, and mitigation. This resource constrained humanitarian environment presents opportunities for multinational corporations to supplement budgets and actively participate in new markets through connecting with humanitarian work. Given the well-established influence of corporations on public health, an assessment of industry funding to humanitarian assistance is necessary especially in the fragile context of Lebanon with a substantial refugee population and multiple compounding crises. This paper examines three aspects of corporate assistance in humanitarian crises in Lebanon. It investigates the modality of corporate assistance to humanitarian agencies, the extent to which humanitarian agency staff are aware of implications of this assistance along with any ethical considerations related to it, and both the risks and benefits for corporations and people. This study explores the views of 14 local and international humanitarian agencies in Lebanon) through in-depth interviews conducted between 2020 and 2022. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and subject to thematic analysis. All agencies participating in the study provided social and health assistance as well as education, vocational training, and other services to refugees or Lebanese. Findings indicate that the majority of them receive corporate funding in varying amounts and in-kind contributions to support various projects. Despite imposed conditions by the corporations, such as posting logos and stories, the agencies perceived the benefits of partnering, mentioning financial assistance in time of need, and flexible agendas that outweigh the risks of conflicts of interest of corporate branding on the populations they serve. Benefits to the corporations themselves relate to corporate social responsibility, increased market reach and visibility. Challenges in partnering with for-profits include ethical considerations and programmatic issues, however no guidelines were reported to exist to detect corporate conflicts of interest, instead most of the agencies rely on their value systems for screening.

Humanitarian vs Pandemic Responses: Vulnerable Groups among Rohingyas in Bangladesh

The Rohingya diaspora is a politically sensitive humanitarian crisis for Bangladesh. The current Covid-19 pandemic poses a range of governance, demographic, and environmental policy challenges in an already fragile context. The ongoing situation combined with the pandemic requires a rethinking of humanitarian strategies to tackle the double burden of crises – humanitarian and pandemic. Drawing together evidence and experience from a mixed method participatory action research conducted among Rohingya refugees and the host community in Bangladesh, this article highlights the importance of the institutional readiness of research organisations to produce contextual interventions and targeted approaches in pandemic and humanitarian response for diverse communities. The article also reflects on the strategies researchers applied to create a knowledge network between researchers and implementers, which not only informed the study design and its selection of most vulnerable groups but also worked towards producing knowledge fit for purpose, where critical evidence was shared with key decision makers and policymakers.

Social Instability in Fragile State Context: Exploring the Dynamics Between Syrian Refugees and the Lebanese Host Community in Lebanon

Lebanon has always been an unstable and challenging country. With or without refugees, politics in Lebanon is subject to different internal, regional, and international dynamics that affect the country’s fragile political, security, economic, and social stability. To better understand social instability in Lebanon, this article sheds light on the role of Syrian refugees in diminishing or otherwise of Lebanon’s political, security, and social stability. Taking into consideration the historical role of refugees—especially Syrians—in affecting social stability and the whole political system in an already fragile and almost failed state, the article will also rely on the existing literature on the relationships and interactions between host communities and refugees. This contribution will rely on a qualitative approach to explore the relations and drivers of tensions between Lebanese host communities and the Syrian refugees, highlighting the differences in perceptions and the main sources of strains. In particular, the article will investigate the policies and aid schemes of the international community, mainly United Nations organizations and international nongovernmental organizations, in fostering or otherwise of the tension between the Lebanese host community and the Syrian refugees.