Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Research Articles

PSD and Cross-PSD of Responses of Seven Classes of Fractional Vibrations Driven by fGn, fBm, Fractional OU Process, and von Kármán Process

This paper gives its contributions in four stages. First, we propose the analytical expressions of power spectrum density (PSD) responses and cross-PSD responses to seven classes of fractional vibrators driven by fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). Second, we put forward the analytical expressions of PSD and cross-PSD responses to seven classes of fractional vibrators excited by fractional Brownian motion (fBm). Third, we present the analytical expressions of PSD and cross-PSD responses to seven classes of fractional vibrators driven by the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Fourth, we bring forward the analytical expressions of PSD and cross-PSD responses to seven classes of fractional vibrators excited by the von Kármán process. We show that the statistical dependences of the responses to seven classes of fractional vibrators follow those of the excitation of fGn, fBm, the OU process, or the von Kármán process. We also demonstrate the obvious effects of fractional orders on the responses to seven classes of fractional vibrations. In addition, we newly introduce class VII fractional vibrators, their frequency transfer function, and their impulse response in this research.

Fractional stochastic volatility model

This article introduces a discrete‐time fractional stochastic volatility model (FSV) based on fractional Gaussian noise. The new model includes the standard stochastic volatility model as a special case and has the same limit as the fractional integrated stochastic volatility (FISV) model, which is the continuous‐time fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. A simulated maximum likelihood method, which maximizes the time‐domain log‐likelihood function calculated by the importance sampling technique, and a frequency‐domain quasi maximum likelihood method (or quasi Whittle) are employed to estimate the model parameters. Simulation studies suggest that, while both estimation methods can accurately estimate the model, the simulated maximum likelihood method outperforms the quasi Whittle method. As an illustration, we fit the FSV and FISV models with the proposed estimation techniques to the S&P 500 composite index over a sample period spanning 45 years.

Global attracting set of stochastic differential equations with unbounded delay driven by fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process

Abstract In this paper, we have studied stochastic differential equations with unbounded delay in fractional power spaces perturbed by fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process Y H , ξ ⁢ ( t ) {{Y^{H,\xi}}(t)} with H ∈ ( 1 2 , 1 ) {H\in(\frac{1}{2},1)} . Subsequently, the existence and uniqueness of mild solution of the considered equation have been proved with fixed-point theorem. Finally, we obtain the global attracting set of the considered equations by some stochastic analysis and inequality technique.

Variance and volatility swaps and options under the exponential fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model

Considering the fair strike values of variance and volatility swaps, we use a stochastic volatility model in which the log volatility is given by a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with two versions; a stationary version and a version with a deterministic initial value. Under these versions, the fair strike formulas are obtained in exact form for variance swaps and approximated fair strike formulas are derived for volatility swaps based on the fact that an aggregation of log-normal variables is well-approximated by shifted log-normal or log-normal distribution. In addition, we obtain two approximate pricing formulas for European options on the realized variance and volatility. The accuracy and robustness of the approximated fair strike formulas are examined via Monte-Carlo computations. We conduct calibration experiments to show that the Hurst exponent and the mean-reversion property of the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process are able to produce various shapes resembling the market term-structures of variance swaps when they are put together.

Ergodic criterion of a random diffusivity model.

The random diffusivity, initially proposed to explain Brownian yet non-Gaussian diffusion, has garnered significant attention due to its capacity not only for elucidating the internal physical mechanism of non-Gaussian diffusion, but also for establishing an analytical framework to characterize particle motion in complex environments. In this paper, based on the correlation function C(t_{1},t_{2})=〈D(t_{1})D(t_{2})〉 of random diffusivity D(t), we quantitatively propose a general criterion of determining the ergodic property of the Langevin equationwith the arbitrary random diffusivity D(t). Due to the critical role of correlation function C(t_{1},t_{2}), we derive the criterion for the two cases with stationary diffusivity or nonstationary diffusivity, respectively. By utilizing the quantitative criterion, we can directly judge the ergodic properties of the random diffusivity model based on the correlation function C(t_{1},t_{2}) of random diffusivity D(t). Several typical diffusivities, including the common square of the Brownian motion and of the (fractional) Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, are found to contribute to different ergodic properties, which validates our proposed criterion built on the correlation function C(t_{1},t_{2}).

The El Niño Southern Oscillation Recharge Oscillator with the Stochastic Forcing of Long-Term Memory

The influence of the fast-varying variables that have a long-term memory on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated by adding a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (FOU) process stochastic noise on the simple recharge oscillator (RO) model. The FOU process noise converges to zero very slowly with a negative power law. The corresponding non-zero ensemble mean during the integration period can exert a pronounced influence on the ensemble-mean dynamics of the RO model. The state-dependent noise, also called the multiplicative noise, can present its influence by reducing the relaxation coefficient and by introducing periodic external forcing. The decreasing relaxation coefficient can enhance the oscillation amplitude and shorten the oscillation period. The forced frequency is close to the natural frequency. The two mechanisms together can further amplify the amplitude and shorten the period, compared with the state-independent noise or additive noise, which only exhibits its influence by introducing non-periodic external forcing. These two mechanisms explicitly elucidate the influence of the stochastic forcing on the ensemble-mean dynamics of the RO model. It provides comprehensive knowledge to better understand the interaction between the fast-varying stochastic forcing and the slow-varying deterministic system and deserves further investigation.

The long time behavior of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with linear self-repelling drift

The long time behavior of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with linear self-repelling drift

Quantile estimation in fractional Levy Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes

First we study estimation of the drift parameter in the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process whose marginal distribution is Student t-distribution. We obtain Spearman’s correlation based estimator, quantile estimator and Brownian excursion based estimator of the drift parameter. Then we study method of moments estimator and quantile estimator in fractional inverse Gaussian and fractional gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.

Moderate Deviations for Parameter Estimation in the Fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes with Periodic Mean

Moderate Deviations for Parameter Estimation in the Fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes with Periodic Mean

Asymptotically efficient estimation of Ergodic rough fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process under continuous observations

Asymptotically efficient estimation of Ergodic rough fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process under continuous observations

Statistical inference in discretely observed fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes

In this paper, we develop a two-stage method for estimating all the unknown parameters in the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model from discrete observations. The estimation procedure is built upon the marriage of the power variation and the minimum contrast estimation. In the first stage, the Hurst coefficient is estimated by the increment Bernoulli statistic and the volatility parameter is estimated by power variations. The asymptotic theory of the proposed estimators in the diffusion term are established under an in-fill asymptotic scheme. In the second stage, two drift parameters are estimated based on the minimum contrast estimation. Their asymptotic theory are analyzed via use of a double asymptotic scheme. The results from Monte Carlo studies illustrate that the proposed estimators have reasonable finite sample properties. An empirical illustration based on realized volatility indicates that the realized volatility is rough.

Parameter estimation of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process based on quadratic variation.

Modern experiments routinely produce extensive data of the diffusive dynamics of tracer particles in a large range of systems. Often, the measured diffusion turns out to deviate from the laws of Brownian motion, i.e., it is anomalous. Considerable effort has been put in conceiving methods to extract the exact parameters underlying the diffusive dynamics. Mostly, this has been done for unconfined motion of the tracer particle. Here, we consider the case when the particle is confined by an external harmonic potential, e.g., in an optical trap. The anomalous particle dynamics is described by the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which we establish new estimators for the parameters. Specifically, by calculating the empirical quadratic variation of a single trajectory, we are able to recover the subordination process governing the particle motion and use it as a basis for the parameter estimation. The statistical properties of the estimators are evaluated from simulations.

APPROXIMATE PRICING OF DERIVATIVES UNDER FRACTIONAL STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL

AbstractThis paper examines the issue of derivative pricing within the framework of a fractional stochastic volatility model. We present a deterministic partial differential equation system to derive an approximate expression for the derivative price. The proposed approach allows for the stochastic volatility to be expressed as a composition of deterministic functions of time and a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We apply this method to the European option pricing under the fractional Stein–Stein volatility model, demonstrating its feasibility and reliability through numerical simulations. Our numerical simulations also illustrate the impact of the parameters in the fractional stochastic volatility model on the option price.

Nonlinear biases in the roughness of a Fractional Stochastic Regularity Model

A Multifractional Process with Random Exponent (MPRE) is used to model the dynamics of log-prices in a financial market. Under this assumption, we show that the Hurst-Hölder exponent of the MPRE follows the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process which in the Fractional Stochastic Volatility Model of Comte and Renault (1998) describes the dynamics of the log-volatility. We provide evidence that several biases of the estimation procedures can generate artificial rough volatility in surrogated as well as real financial data.

Short-Time Asymptotics for Non-Self-Similar Stochastic Volatility Models

We provide a short-time large deviation principle (LDP) for stochastic volatility models, where the volatility is expressed as a function of a Volterra process. This LDP does not require strict self-similarity assumptions on the Volterra process. For this reason, we are able to apply such an LDP to two notable examples of non-self-similar rough volatility models: models where the volatility is given as a function of a log-modulated fractional Brownian motion (Bayer, C., F. Harang, and P. Pigato. 2021. “Log-Modulated Rough Stochastic Volatility Models.” SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics 12 (3): 1257–1284), and models where it is given as a function of a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (fOU) process (Gatheral, J., T. Jaisson, and M. Rosenbaum. 2018. “Volatility is Rough.” Quantitative Finance 18 (6): 933–949). In both cases, we derive consequences for short-maturity European option prices implied volatility surfaces and implied volatility skew. In the fOU case, we also discuss moderate deviations pricing and simulation results.

Kolmogorov bounds in the CLT of the LSE for Gaussian Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes

In this paper, we consider the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process defined as solution to the equation [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is a Gaussian process with stationary increments, whereas [Formula: see text] is unknown parameter to be estimated. We provide an upper bound in Kolmogorov distance for normal approximation of the least squares estimator [Formula: see text] of the drift parameter [Formula: see text] on the basis of the continuous observation [Formula: see text], as [Formula: see text]. Our approach is based on some novel estimates involving a combination of Malliavin calculus and Stein’s method for normal approximation. We apply our result to fractional OU processes of the first kind, and improved the upper bound of the Kolmogorov distance for the LSE [Formula: see text] provided by [Y. Chen, N. Kuang and Y. Li, Berry–Esseen bound for the parameter estimation of fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes, Stoch. Dyn. 20(4) (2020) 2050023; Y. Chen and Y. Li, Berry–Esseen bound for the parameter estimation of fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with the hurst parameter [Formula: see text], Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 50(13) (2021) 2996–3013], respectively, in the cases [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. We also apply our approach to fractional OU processes of the second kind.

On the Kolmogorov Distance for the Least Squares Estimator in the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

The paper shows that the distribution of the normalized least squares estimator of the drift parameter in the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process observed over [0, T] converges to the standard normal distribution with an uniform optimal error bound of the order O(T −1/2) for 0.5 ≤ H ≤ 0.63 and of the order O(T4H-3) for 0.63 < H < 0.75 where H is the Hurst exponent of the fractional Brownian motion driving the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. For the normalized quasi-least squares estimator, the error bound is of the order O(T−1/4) for 0.5 ≤ H ≤ 0.69 and of the order O(T4H−3) for 0.69 < H < 0.75.

Hypotheses Testing in Nonergodic Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Models

We obtain explicit form of fine large deviation theorems for the log-likelihood ratio in testing models with fractional nonergodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with Hurst parameter more than half and get explicit rates of decrease of the error probabilities of Neyman-Pearson, Bayes and minimax tests.

Evaluation of integrals with fractional Brownian motion for different Hurst indices

In this paper, we will evaluate integrals that define the conditional expectation, variance and characteristic function of stochastic processes with respect to fractional Brownian motion (fBm) for all relevant Hurst indices, i.e. . Particularly, the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (fOU) process gives rise to highly nontrivial integration formulas that need careful analysis when considering the whole range of Hurst indices. We will show that the classical technique of analytic continuation, from complex analysis, provides a way of extending the domain of validity of an integral from to the larger domain . Numerical experiments for different Hurst indices confirm the robustness and efficiency of the integral formulations presented. Moreover, we provide accurate and highly efficient financial option pricing results for processes that are related to the fOU process, with the help of Fourier cosine expansions.

Multi-mixed fractional Brownian motions and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes

The so-called multi-mixed fractional Brownian motions (mmfBm) and multi-mixed fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (mmfOU) processes are studied. These processes are constructed by mixing by superimposing or mixing (infinitely many) independent fractional Brownian motions (fBm) and fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes (fOU), respectively. Their existence as ${L^{2}}$ processes is proved, and their path properties, viz. long-range and short-range dependence, Hölder continuity, p-variation, and conditional full support, are studied.