The El Niño Southern Oscillation Recharge Oscillator with the Stochastic Forcing of Long-Term Memory

Abstract

The influence of the fast-varying variables that have a long-term memory on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated by adding a fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (FOU) process stochastic noise on the simple recharge oscillator (RO) model. The FOU process noise converges to zero very slowly with a negative power law. The corresponding non-zero ensemble mean during the integration period can exert a pronounced influence on the ensemble-mean dynamics of the RO model. The state-dependent noise, also called the multiplicative noise, can present its influence by reducing the relaxation coefficient and by introducing periodic external forcing. The decreasing relaxation coefficient can enhance the oscillation amplitude and shorten the oscillation period. The forced frequency is close to the natural frequency. The two mechanisms together can further amplify the amplitude and shorten the period, compared with the state-independent noise or additive noise, which only exhibits its influence by introducing non-periodic external forcing. These two mechanisms explicitly elucidate the influence of the stochastic forcing on the ensemble-mean dynamics of the RO model. It provides comprehensive knowledge to better understand the interaction between the fast-varying stochastic forcing and the slow-varying deterministic system and deserves further investigation.