Forward-looking View Research Articles

Time Layers or Time Regimes

In this article, I examine Koselleck’s vision on time layers and the forward-looking view they entail. According to me, both its future orientation and its division into time layers are debatable, given his Kantian approach to concepts and his misappropriation of the simultaneity of the non-simultaneous. My research is quite urgent since several authors are following in his footsteps. Hartog does this by distinguishing between three time regimes, the second being based on Koselleck’s future-oriented time. Lucian Hölscher prefers Koselleck’s empty time to an embodied one. Zoltán Boldizsár Simon and Marek Tamm started a project in 2021 called ‘Historical Futures,’ in which they propose a time regime that decouples the past and present from the future. They have concluded it with a plea for an open future. In this way they hope to have a better starting point for dealing with the issues of the Anthropocene. Unfortunately, all of them sharpen Reinhart Koselleck’s vision of a forward-looking time and thus also reinforce its shortcomings. Hartog’s time regimes would have been a better choice. Thinking ahead and disconnecting the past and present from the future cannot solve our current time out of joint. A more balanced view of time is a better way out.

Innovative Applications and Perspectives of Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy Technology in Biomedicine.

Surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) has become a revolutionary technique in the biomedical field, providing unparalleled sensitivity for the detection and characterization of biological samples. In this review, recent SERS innovations are comprehensively discussed, including advanced substrate materials, different SERS detection strategies, and multimodal approaches that combine SERS with other biotechnologies. Among them, the role of SERS in the accurate diagnosis of tumors is highlighted, which has promoted accurate molecular analysis and real-time monitoring of treatment effects. In addition, the growing potential of SERS in the treatment of chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and neurodegenerative diseases is discussed. Moreover, the integration with microfluidic chip systems for precise single-cell analysis is presented. To give a forward-looking view, the key challenges faced by SERS technology are also proposed, and possible solutions to overcome these obstacles are provided.

AJAD’s First Twenty Years: Evolving Knowledge and Practice in Asian Agriculture and Rural Development

This special 20th Anniversary Issue, with the theme “Asian Agriculture and Development in a Dynamic and Volatile Landscape of Demands, Peoples, and Risks,” features articles from three senior members of our Editorial Board, namely C. Peter Timmer, James Roumasset, and David Dawe, who take both a retrospective and forward-looking view at agriculture in Asia. Five more articles mainly authored by renowned experts complete the lineup in this special issue, tackling pressing issues that beset the agriculture and development landscape. All together, the eight articles are hoped to provide our readers and subscribers an engaging variety of relevant, useful and even practical knowledge to students, educators, researchers, practitioners, advocates, and policymakers alike. As AJAD looks to its next 20 years, we aim to cast an even wider net across the region to gather and share broader and deeper perspectives toward building a stronger knowledge base to propel agriculture and rural development in Asia and beyond, for the benefit of all.

Deservingness Belongs to the Past

AbstractIt has been suggested that people who will face hardship in the future may deserve our sympathies now. Similar intuitions can be adopted regarding the deservingness of jobs and scholarships, where andidates may be deserving now based on their expected future performance. To accommodate these intuitions, some have contended that desert is sometimes forward-looking. In this paper, I argue that it is a mistake to think of desert as forward-looking. The forward-looking view struggles to explain the deservingness of subjects that have conflicting desert-making features in the future, it requires that we accept asymmetries and exceptions in desert theory and that we commit to a form of moderate determinism. In response, I present a comparative approach that offers a unified framework for explaining forward-looking cases without the drawbacks associated with the forward-looking view.

الإنسان وبيئة الوسيط الرقمي: تأثير مواقع التواصل الاجتماعي على طرق تفكير وتعبير الإنسان

This paper seeks, using the interpretive philosophical approach, to look into the issue of the impact of digital media on human life and ways of thinking and expression. This paper aims to analyze this issue interpretatively and link it to historical transformations in the field of media ecology in order to adopt a forward-looking view instead of a numerical analysis of the available information. The issue, as this paper sees it, lacks the philosophical dimension to discuss the characteristics of social media and link changes that these social media have brought on humans with changes that humans have brought on various concepts such as culture, thought, and society. This paper concluded that social media are a different revolution in communication media. It changed the procedures of the communication process, bringing the margin groups into the position of the elites and returning the elites to a position that is close to the position of the margin groups. The margins have become the agent that determines the ways of building new social relationships and carries out the process of transforming from traditional relationships to digital relationships. Thus, concepts change and are shaped by a different perception (the margin group). By carefully reading the characteristics of three social media (Twitter, Facebook, and WhatsApp), three common characteristics and features emerged that shaped and influenced their users: openness, permanence and continuity, and changing concepts.

Do expectations of fossil fuel owners matter?

ABSTRACT To avoid the disastrous effects of climate change, a rapid and drastic transition toward a low-carbon society and economy is required. This transition imposes significant transitional losses on some agents given the benefits they can no longer realize. In economic terms, it leads to the stranding of their assets. This article investigates whether fossil fuel owners could refer to their expectations about the benefits of producing their reserves to justify transitional measures such as exemptions from new rules or financial compensations. It criticizes forward-looking views on the normative relevance of expectations and defends a backward-looking view, which justifies limited claims. It contends that states that are responsible for creating false expectations about regulatory stability should provide compensations to fossil fuel companies for the costs of relying on those expectations. States can be held responsible if they caused this expectation-related harm in a foreseeable and avoidable way, which is only the case if the expectation is reasonable and if they were not put under pressure by the lobbying activities of the fossil fuel industry.

Exploring AI media. Definitions, conceptual model, research agenda

ABSTRACT Given the rising interest in AI-generated and synthetic media, the goal is to synthesise trending topics on how AI technology and media operation converge. A review of 2727 records from 13 international academic/non-academic databases is analysed through topic modelling and data scanning for exploratory analysis. The interpretation of the results allows a proposal of the “AI media” concept framing social-news-artificial-fake-service media phenomena leading to an extended or AI mediatisation. This study identifies fundamental challenges including trust and ethics, privacy safeguards, and the sustainability of AI ecosystems. The proposed conceptual model, definitions, and research agenda contribute to a comprehensive understanding of this emerging field. The study supports academic inquiry and policymaking with precise terminology and a forward-looking view that also considers the hype around generative AI.

Reflections on Asset Pricing Factors: A Machine Learning-Based Perspective

In recent years, scholars have explored hundreds of asset pricing factors built upon the foundation of the Fama five-factor model, sparking widespread discussion in the academic community. Simultaneously, the advancement of machine learning techniques has brought innovation to asset pricing factors. This article provides an overview of typical asset pricing factors and the application of machine learning in pricing models. It begins by discussing the construction of new asset pricing factors and then delves into the innovations brought about by machine learning in asset pricing models. The diversity of factors increases the fit of asset pricing models but also presents corresponding challenges. The application of machine learning techniques addresses issues such as overfitting in pricing models, further enhancing model effectiveness. The primary value of this article lies in summarizing various perspectives on asset pricing factors in recent years, exploring the significant applications of machine learning in asset pricing models, and providing a forward-looking view on the development of asset pricing models.

Unveiling the multifaceted realm of human papillomavirus: a comprehensive exploration of biology, interactions, and advances in cancer management.

Human Papillomavirus (HPV), an extensive family of DNA viruses, manifests as a persistent global health challenge. Persistent HPV infection is now firmly established as a significant aetiological factor for a spectrum of malignancies. In this review, we examine the latest insights into HPV biology and its intricate relationship with the host. We delve into the complex dynamics of co-infections involving HPV alongside other viruses, such as HIV, EBV, and HSV, as well as the burgeoning role of the microbiome in cancer development. We also explore recent advancements in understanding the specific contributions of HPV in the development of various cancers, encompassing cancers of the anogenital region, head and neck, as well as breast, lung, and prostate. Moreover, we focus on the current preventive strategies, including vaccination and screening methods, and therapeutic interventions that range from traditional approaches like surgery and chemotherapy to emerging modalities such as targeted therapies and immunotherapies. Additionally, we provide a forward-looking view on the future directions of HPV research, highlighting potential areas of exploration to further our understanding and management of HPV and its associated cancers. Collectively, this review is positioned to deepen readers' understanding of HPV biology and its complex interplay with cancer biology. It presents innovative strategies for the prevention, management, and therapeutic intervention of HPV-associated malignancies.

Defending Guinevere: Re-reading William Morris’ “The Defence of Guenevere”

This essay examines how William Morris strategically defended Guinevere and her affair with Lancelot in his poetry “The Defence of Guenevere” within the cultural landscape of the nineteenth century. Instead of repeating the conventional reading of Queen Guinevere as a model of transgressive women fixed by the dichotomous good versus bad femininity, this essay more focuses on Guinevere’s various guises in order to contexualize Guinevere and her adultery in a broader sense of human nature. First, this essay explores how Morris portrayed a true picture of Guinevere, which was obscured and overshadowed by the dominant gender discourse of the time, by applying his anachronistic and unconventional literary device deviated from conventional social norm and literary style. Although Morris’ radical and unconventional Arthurian world failed to appeal the contemporaries, this essay argues that it was Morris’ subtle and ingenious way that reflected the nineteenth century culture as well as his forward-looking view of a potential shift in the status of women. Considering the fact that it was a critical period in the evolution of modern legal and cultural attitudes to the relation of women and sexuality, Morris was a more realistic observer describing Victorian anxieties about the conservative Victorian sexual discourse in his poetry.

Security challenges in cloud computing: A comprehensive analysis

The security issues surrounding cloud computing, a quickly developing technology that is now essential to both personal and business computing, are thoroughly examined in this study. Cloud computing presents serious security risks that require careful attention, despite its many advantages such as scalability, cost-effectiveness, and flexibility. In-depth discussions of a number of important security topics are covered in this paper, including network security, access control, data breaches, legal and regulatory framework compliance, and new threats and vulnerabilities. The paper illuminates the complexities of data and application security in the cloud environment by thoroughly examining these subjects. The study also looks at actual case studies to show how security breaches in cloud computing affect things and how to fix them. The study intends to offer insightful analyses of security challenges with practical implications by examining these cases and providing lessons learned from incidents that have happened in various cloud computing scenarios. Our comprehension of the complex nature of security threats and the tactics used to counter and mitigate them is improved by looking closely at these cases. This study looks into the potential benefits of cloud security enhancements from emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning, in addition to identifying existing challenges. The research investigates the potential benefits of these technologies in terms of automated security responses, adaptive access controls, and proactive threat detection. Cloud environments may be able to improve their security posture against new and sophisticated threats by utilizing the powers of AI and machine learning. Furthermore, by projecting future trends and challenges in cloud security, this paper offers a forward-looking view of the changing field. Comprehending these possible obstacles is crucial to creating proactive and flexible security approaches that can successfully tackle the ever-changing landscape of cloud computing. This paper's ultimate objective is to offer insightful information about practical approaches and industry best practices for safeguarding cloud environments. Organizations can navigate the complexity of the cloud landscape while protecting their data and applications from the ever-evolving threat landscape by striking a balance between the enormous potential of cloud computing and the necessity of maintaining strong security measures.

Artificial Intelligence in Credit Risk: A Literature Review

This study aimed to address the needs of using artificial intelligence (AI) by investors and industry players toquantify credit risk in a more forward-looking view instead of the traditional non-forward-looking methods.This is a literature review of nine studies on how applications of AI used to provide better forecast power, andwhether the results can be adequately understood by analysts who will need to make decisions based on AIcomputation. We use the keywords "artificial intelligence", "machine learning", and "credit risk" in googlescholar. Full text is obtained from Web of Science if unavailable as open-source documents. The consensus isquite consistent and positive. AI can provide better forecast power, and when used correctly, AI can increasethe acceptance for less privileged people to access credit, which is good for the overall economy. However,several key challenges remain to make this technology affordable, especially on how to reduce the complexityso that more people can learn how to configure, operate, and interpret the AI computation results. This studyis looking for consensus of how AI can help more accurate forecasting of forward-looking credit riskquantification.

The role of theory in researching and understanding human communication

Abstract Communication is a theory-driven discipline, but does it always need to be? This article raises questions related to the role of theory in communication science, with the goal of providing a thoughtful discussion about what theory is, why theory is (or is not) important, the role of exploration in theory development, what constitutes a theoretical contribution, and the current state of theory in the field. We describe communication researchers’ interest with theory by assessing the number of articles in the past decade of research that mention theory (nearly 80% of papers have attended to theory in some way). This article concludes with a forward-looking view of how scholars might think about theory in their work, why exploratory research should be valued more and not considered as conflicting with theory, and how conceptual clarity related to theoretical interests and contributions are imperative for human communication research.

Resilient banking: model-based assessment of business continuity policies on commercial banks

PurposeCommercial banks face several risks, including credit, liquidity, operational and disruptive risks. In addition to these risks that are challenging for banks to control and manage, crises and disasters can exert substantially more destructive shocks. These shocks can exacerbate internal risks and cause severe damage to the bank's performance, leading banks to bankruptcy and closure. This study aims to facilitate achieving resilient banking policies through a model-based assessment of business continuity management (BCM) policies.Design/methodology/approachBy applying a system dynamics (SD) methodology, a systemic model that includes a causal structure of the banking business is presented. To build a simulation model, data are collected from a commercial bank in Iran. By presenting the simulation model of the bank's business, the consequences of some given crises on the bank's performance are tested, and the effectiveness of risk and crisis management policies is evaluated. Vensim Personal Learning Edition (PLE) software is used to construct the simulation model.FindingsResults indicate that the current BCM policies do not show appropriate resilience in the face of various crises. Commercial banks cannot create sustainable value for the banks' shareholders despite the possibility of profitability, as the shareholders lack adequate resilience and soundness. These commercial banks do not have the appropriate resilience for the next pandemic after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Moreover, the robustness of the current banking business model is very fragile for the banking run crisis.Practical implicationsA forward-looking view of resilient banking can be obtained by combining liquidity coverage, stable funding, capital adequacy and insights from stress tests. Resilient banking requires a balanced combination of robustness, soundness and profitability.Originality/valueThe present study is a combination of bank business management, risk and resilience management and SD simulation. This approach can analyze and simulate the dynamics of bank resilience. Additionally, present of a decision support system (DSS) to analyze and simulate the outcomes of different crisis management policies and solutions is an innovative approach to developing effective and resilient banking policies.

Tumor Therapy Strategies Based on Microenvironment-specific Responsive Nanomaterials.

The tumor microenvironment (TME) is a complex and variable region characterized by hypoxia, low pH, high redox status, overexpression of enzymes, and high-ATP concentrations. In recent years, with the continuous in-depth study of nanomaterials, more and more TME-specific response nanomaterials have been used for tumor treatment. However, the complexity of the TME causes different types of responses with various strategies and mechanisms of action. Aiming to systematically demonstrate the recent advances in research on TME-responsive nanomaterials, this paper summarizes the characteristics of TME and outlines the strategies of different TME responses. Representative reaction types are illustrated and their merits and demerits are analyzed. Finally, we present forward-looking views on TME-response strategies for nanomaterials. We envisage that such emerging strategies for the treatment of cancer are expected to exhibit dramatic trans-clinical capabilities, demonstrating the extensive potential for the diagnosis and therapy of cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The Oilfield Service Company's Business Development Strategy towards a Sustainable Energy with Scenario Planning

Since the Paris Agreement where the countries in the world commit for the carbon emission reduction and net zero in 2050 or sooner, the energy transition has become the top topic in the energy sector. The oil-field services (OFS) industry is one of the business actors in the O&G supply chain with complex value chains, business structures, and models, and this research will explore scenario planning on the energy sector in Indonesia to have a forward-looking view of future O&G conditions in Indonesia including the energy transition which later became the key focal issue in this research. Scenarios are made based on the key driving factors and uncertainties that have been identified through the analysis of primary data from stakeholder interviews and secondary information from various literature studies. Furthermore, Scenarios are constructed based on how society responds to sustainable consumption and supporting infrastructures such as regulatory policies, the economic and investment environment, as well as technology and innovation. The four scenarios are (i) Empty Boat, (ii) Leaking Boat, (iii) Rocking the boat, and (iv) Rowing to Win. This research describes the implications, options, and strategies for each scenario which can then be taken into consideration by Green Bay Hornet Company (GBH) as an OFS company to enable proactive decisions and evaluate strategies to be resilient in each scenario. Reassessing the energy market, business conditions, and core competencies and how to expand and diversify technology, product, and service portfolios to renewable energy and decarbonizing initiatives in their operation is some of the strategies to expedite the transition in 2035.

The Hispanic International Seminar on Urban Form (ISUF-H). A platform for dialogue between urban planners and urban form researchers in Spanish-speaking countries

ABSTRACT This paper is aimed at introducing the readers of Planning Perspectives to the Hispanic International Seminar on Urban Form (ISUF-H), a network for urban studies from morphological perspectives in Spanish-speaking countries. The platform is framed within the context of the research carried out at ISUF and its relationships with other schools and traditions of urban forms. The paper considers the themes and approaches presented at the ISUF-H conferences in Toledo (2016), Zaragoza (2018), Guadalajara-Mexico (2019), Barcelona (2020) and San José-Costa Rica (2021). In general, the diversity and vitality of research in the Spanish language is confirmed with the emergence and renewal of the themes and methodologies of analysis and eclectic approaches – with those of architects and urban planners dominating over those of geographers and specialists from other disciplines; this, in turn, demonstrates that barriers in the multidisciplinary dialogue remain and are an important challenge. Retrospective views and diagnoses based on the analysis of urban forms coexist with forward-looking views that consider current urban processes. The challenges of the ISUF-H are, therefore, akin to those of the ISUF, but also complementary, since they acknowledge the need to promote inclusive and multidisciplinary views over sectorial ones and to expand the anglophone field to include research carried out in Spanish-speaking countries.

Chitosan Nanoparticles-Based Ionic Gelation Method: A Promising Candidate for Plant Disease Management.

By 2050, population growth and climate change will lead to increased demand for food and water. Nanoparticles (NPs), an advanced technology, can be applied to many areas of agriculture, including crop protection and growth enhancement, to build sustainable agricultural production. Ionic gelation method is a synthesis of microparticles or NPs, based on an electrostatic interaction between opposite charge types that contains at least one polymer under mechanical stirring conditions. NPs, which are commonly based on chitosan (CS), have been applied to many agricultural fields, including nanopesticides, nanofertilizers, and nanoherbicides. The CS-NP or CS-NPs-loaded active ingredients (Cu, saponin, harpin, Zn, hexaconazole, salicylic acid (SA), NPK, thiamine, silicon, and silver (Ag)) are effective in controlling plant diseases and enhancing plant growth, depending on the concentration and application method by direct and indirect mechanisms, and have attracted much attention in the last five years. Many crops have been evaluated in in vivo or in greenhouse conditions but only maize (CS-NP-loaded Cu, Zn, SA, and silicon) and soybean (CS-NP-loaded Cu) were tested for manage post flowering stalk rot, Curvularia leaf spot, and bacterial pustule disease in field condition. Since 2019, five of eight studies have been performed in field conditions that have shown interest in CS-NPs synthesized by the ionic gelation method. In this review, we summarized the current state of research and provided a forward-looking view of the use of CS-NPs in plant disease management.

Old Pedagogies for Wise Education: A Janussian Reflection on Universities

This paper presents a synthesis of time-honoured pedagogical approaches to develop wisdom suitable to address the urgent problem-solving requirement of the modern university. During these last 30 years, I have employed a range of critical, interpretivist, qualitative research methods to examine archival and archaeological evidence and conduct cross-cultural and often comparative and international case studies to study wisdom. My central concern has been to understand how teachers across diverse locations throughout history have learned to develop wisdom and how they have educated others to such understandings. As part of this work, I examined the modern university and its capacity to engage with local knowledge and wisdom. Over the course of analysis, I find that one of the constraints of scaling up institutions for learning wisdom into the now global model of the university is that universities have forgotten how to develop wisdom in the race towards industrialisation, colonisation, and neo-liberalism within the scientific paradigm. One of the early sacrifices of such scaling up was the ability of the university to preserve an intention to develop the wisdom of its students. Therefore, distant memory now is the ideation of wisdom that many societies and civilisations, and their institutions of higher learning, are in danger of forgetting the pedagogical pathway to do so. The paper begins with an examination of the long history of pedagogies for the development of wisdom. I then briefly discuss the methodological aspects of this paper and explain my key terms: information, knowledge and wisdom, followed by an examination of wisdom through the lens of the teaching and learning modalities of the Oral, Written, and Printing. My synthesis of wisdom artefacts and stories about pedagogy suggests that while wisdom is individually sensed, understood, and lived phenomenologically, its meaning is latent, socially agreed, and constrained in terms of how and if universities might cultivate its essential elements. Taking a Janussian backward- and forward-looking view, I propose a remembering and reconnecting approach to educating for wisdom through purposeful consideration of what we know about time-honoured pedagogies for teaching and learning wisdom, what are its current constraints, and what are its future opportunities in the university into the new postmodern, planetary, virtual education era.

Predicting sovereign credit ratings for portfolio stress testing

This paper analyses the relationship between macroeconomic and credit cycles. It is not a straightforward relationship, particularly in sovereign credit assessment. Modelling such a relationship requires blending scenario analysis and stress testing, together with dynamic modelling of macroeconomic and credit variables. The novelty of the presented approach is its ability to cross-pollinate machine learning and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation as part of a process that overcomes the challenges faced by risk managers. The result is a probabilistic forward-looking view of credit risk scenarios that can guide action. Sovereign credit ratings are expert opinions based on relevant macroeconomic, financial and policy information. We introduce a predictive machine learning model of sovereign credit ratings that lends itself naturally to MC simulations and stress testing. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) allows considering many variables simultaneously in a nonlinear fashion as candidates for predicting sovereign ratings. The portfolio stress testing capability comes in by augmenting the set of variables used in the MC simulations to include external shock variables common to the sovereigns in the portfolio, for example, relevant global commodity prices. The resulting rating distribution can be used to calculate different relevant risk metrics, including credit-sensitive measures of risk-weighted assets.