Alternative Forest Management Research Articles

Non-industrial Private Forest Owners’ Knowledge and Forest Management Preferences Regarding Forest Damage in Northern Sweden

In northern Sweden, large forest areas are affected by extensive damage caused by moose, fungi, beetle and other biological pests. For non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners this leads to large losses of value, not only in economic terms but also in the form of loss of biodiversity and amenity values. Therefore, several research projects are underway to develop new silvicultural methods and other measures to reduce damage. However, a successful implementation of these will often depend on the willingness and knowledge of the forest owners. The objective of this study was, therefore, to elucidate NIPF owners’ knowledge about forest damage and their preferences regarding forest management alternatives that potentially could mitigate the damage situation. Data were collected through a questionnaire that was distributed to a random sample of 1,177 NIPF owners in northern Sweden, and the response rate was 31% (n = 368). The results show that 19% of the NIPF owners did not know the current damage situation in their own forest. In addition, NIPF owners judged that their knowledge to identify damage themselves is quite limited, except for damage caused by moose. Regarding future management options, many were positive towards avoiding clear-cuts in suitable areas, while many were negative towards implementing alternative tree species such as larch and lodgepole pine. The study concludes that there is a clear need to inform and educate NIPF owners about forest damage, but also that there will be challenges in reaching all types of owners.

Potential of Carbon Offsets to Promote the Management of Capercaillie Lekking Sites in Finnish Forests

Competition between the economic and natural assets of forests is emphasised in capercaillie lekking sites, which are often located within production forests. In this study, we assessed the potential use of carbon offsets as income for the management of capercaillie lekking sites. We ran simulations and optimisations for two alternative forest management scenarios in ten forest holdings located in five different regions of Finland. The size of each forest holding was approximately 30 hectares, of which 5 hectares was included in a lekking site. The basic scenario followed forest management recommendations, and the carbon sequestration scenario aimed to enhance biodiversity maintenance in a way that enabled carbon offsets to be obtained for the lekking site. We found that the decrease in revenue from timber sales was generally so small that the income from carbon offsets provided an economically better choice. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of carbon sequestration did not seem to be restricted to a specific location. The approach we introduced can be utilised in future decision making in the forestry sector to promote the coordination of nature management and forestry. Moreover, carbon pools should be considered more comprehensively in future research.

Individual tree basal area increment models suitable for different stand structures in Finland

Forest growth models employed in Fennoscandia have been generally targeted at rotation forestry (RF) stands, relying on age as a key predictor. Uneven aged, irregular stands, such as the ones managed with continuous cover forestry, are becoming of increasingly common. New models suited for all kind of management approaches (i.e., age-independent) have been developed in Fennoscandia. Although the ongoing climate change is projected to strongly affect tree growth in boreal regions, climatic variables included in current models are usually restricted to temperature sum averages with simple links.The objectives of our research were: 1) fitting a new age independent empirical tree basal area increment model (B2023) with inclusion of additional climatic variables for the main Nordic tree species (Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birches); 2) using independent data to validate both the new model and other two age-independent published empirical models (P2013, P2021); and 3) investigating the sensitivity of growth predictions of all the empirical models to climate change.Our results showed that the new model B2023 was as accurate as P2013 when independently validated. Both models performed well in different forest structures and management alternatives (namely rotation forestry, continuous cover forestry, two-storied stands, and old-growth natural forests), although with few differences, and on average slightly better than P2021. At plot level, the new model B2023 showed slight underprediction for the overstorey pine layer in continuous cover forestry and two-storied stands. The predicted climate change scenarios increased simulated growth in all models, although P2021 showed very high values for spruce. We failed to include additional climatic variables than temperature sum in B2023, thus not improving much its accuracy under historical data, nor its sensitivity to future climate.Concluding, the individual tree models here presented can be applied to a wide range of forest structures and managements in Fennoscandia. For long-term simulation scenarios, different approaches to improve the climate sensitivity of empirical, individual tree model should be explored.

Is it more important to increase carbon sequestration, biodiversity, or jobs? A case study of citizens' preferences for forest policy in Finland

Forest management plays an important role in mitigating the most serious threats to the well-being of current and future generations: climate change and biodiversity loss. We examine citizens' preferences for alternative forest management policy goals, including the provision of carbon sinks, biodiversity, and forest sector jobs, using a discrete choice experiment in Finland. We explore preference heterogeneity using latent class multinomial logit models finding the highest willingness to pay for biodiversity-oriented forest policy. Comparing three forest policy scenarios, focusing on “Biodiversity,” “Climate,” or “Bioeconomy,” citizens preferred the overall environmental goals over economic ones. We observe considerable heterogeneity in respondents' preferences identifying five latent preference classes. The results provide valuable background information on citizens' values and preferences on tradeoffs built into future revisions of forest policy.

Analysis of the Vigor of Pinus hartwegii Lindl. along an Altitudinal Gradient Using UAV Multispectral Images: Evidence of Forest Decline Possibly Associated with Climatic Change

Future climate forecasts predict major changes that will have negative impacts on the distribution, abundance, and dynamics of forest ecosystems. In Mexico, there is evidence of symptoms of massive forest decline; however, there is no consensus in terms of attributing these symptoms to climate change. This study aimed to provide evidence of forest decline possibly associated with climatic change in the highland pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) populations of the Nevado de Toluca Flora and Fauna Protection Area. Using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) equipped with multispectral sensors, the study applied digital photogrammetry techniques, automated tree crown detection algorithms, and calculation of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and leaf chlorophyll index (LCI) to assess forest health across an altitudinal transect (from 3300 m to the timberline at 4040 m elevation). Climate analysis was conducted with TerraClimate data using mean annual temperature (MAT), April temperature, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the studied altitudinal transect and its xeric limit. We found that lower altitude populations had significantly higher stress levels, indicating forest decline phenomena, while intermediate altitude populations showed greater vigor of the detected trees. Statistically significant differences in the NDVI and LCI values along the altitudinal gradient provided evidence of forest decline in terms of forest vigor and productivity, with the greatest disturbance found at the lower altitude of the examined forest species. The analysis of the climatic data revealed an increase in April temperature +1.4 °C of the xeric limit of the transect (low altitude) when comparing the reference period, 1961–1990 (mean: 12.17 °C), with the decade prior to our study (2011–2020; mean: 13.57 °C). This would be equivalent to an upward shift in elevation of 280 m of the xeric limit. In addition, the PDSI analysis revealed that droughts are becoming increasingly intense at a rate of 0.06 PDSI units per decade, with greater intensity in the last five years. These findings highlight the negative impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems and the urgent need for alternative forest management and conservation practices to increase resilience and adaptation in the temperate forests of Mexico. This study sets a precedent for further research to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems and the development of sustainable management practices.

Assessing the Effects of Different Harvesting Practices on the Forestry Sector’s Climate Benefits Potential: A Stand Level Theoretical Study in an Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

The contribution of the forest sector to climate change mitigation needs to rely on optimal strategies that include forest management, wood supply, wood product disposal, and replacement of GHG-intensive materials and energy sources. Our study aimed to assess the impact of alternative forest management practices applied at the stand scale on the capacity of the forest sector to reduce its radiative forcing, using the boreal forests of eastern Canada as a case study. We simulated management of a balsam fir–white birch stand over a sixty-year period and determined the sectorial carbon and radiative forcing budget for a reference scenario (no harvest) and for nineteen clearcut and partial cut alternatives. The results suggest that logging may not significantly reduce carbon emissions compared to a preservation practice and does not yield any climate benefits in terms of radiative forcing. In a context for which the substitution effect of wood products on markets is expected to be limited, the mitigation potential of a scenario is mostly driven by the capacity of the forest ecosystem carbon sink to compensate for the substantial CO2 and CH4 emissions from wood product decay in landfills. The improved assessment of carbon emission temporality, incorporation of ecosystem carbon dynamics, and improved consideration of substitution and the decay of wood products are essential in the development of any forest management strategy. Neglecting these elements can lead to misconceptions and prevent informed mitigation decisions.

Cost-efficient forest management for safeguarding Siberian flying squirrel (Pteromys volans) habitats in Central Finland

ABSTRACT Protection of vulnerable species often creates conflicts between land use and conservation management. Particularly challenging is the case of Siberian flying squirrel (SFS; Pteromys volans). SFS favours mature forest habitats, which are often the target for logging, and therefore its protection causes opportunity costs. In our analysis a regional case study was applied as a platform to create alternative forest management scenarios. These scenarios aimed to maintain and improve SFS habitats with varying magnitudes, from no action in SFS habitat improvement to increasing the amount of suitable habitat for SFS. Stand projections for each forest management scenario were modelled with the Motti stand simulator, and the simulated stand structures were further analyzed using specific indexes with Geographic Information System (GIS) methodologies and tools to predict potential nesting and feeding habitats and connectivity for SFS. Connectivity between habitats was assessed with a Least Cost Path analysis. The results showed that some forest management scenarios were more cost-efficient than others in maintaining habitat suitability and connectivity for SFS. Further, with adjusted cutting removals (due to restrictions other than SFS habitat related, mainly recreation) an additional hectare suitable for SFS habitat was considerably more cost-efficient than without the adjustment.

Assessing well-being in forest dependent communities: A case study of Gunung Tebu Forest Reserve, Terengganu

Forest ecosystem services provide wide range of benefits not only to the environment and economy but also to the social aspect. For generations local communities had received benefits from forest ecosystem services to sustain their livelihood, where over 2.4 billion people all over the world still depend on forest ecosystem for food, source of raw water, medicines and also income generation. Which made the forest become fundamental to the livelihoods and well-being of the people, especially for those who live within and adjacent of forest boundaries. These people are called “forest-dependent communities”. A case study in 2022 was conducted to assess the well-being of forest dependent communities specifically at Gunung Tebu Forest Reserve, Terengganu. The study employed few data collections (including rapid rural appraisal, focus group discussion and household survey) among peripheral communities from seven (7) villages. The primary data for social survey were collected from 700 households by using structured questionnaire. The results show the respondents’ average income was RM2,920/month with 10.6% of forest dependency. Other than that, the poverty level of these communities may increase up to 20%, if the income from the forest is eliminated. Therefore, the exploration and implementation of alternative forest management such as social forestry practices are important to ensure the needs for conservation and development is balanced especially at Gunung Tebu, Terengganu.

Trade-Offs between Economic Gains and Carbon Stocks across a Range of Management Alternatives in Boreal Forests

Boreal forests, storing approximately half of the global forest carbon (C), are key to the global C cycle and climate regulation. The sustainability of C stocks is adversely impacted by forest management. However, the economic gain–C stock relationship across forest management alternatives and diverse C pools remain unclear. Using empirical data, we examined the relationships between economic gains and total ecosystem C in response to the changes in rotation age and overstorey composition in boreal forests. We found that total ecosystem C increased initially, reached a maximum, and declined thereafter with increasing economic gains. The relationships between economic gains and C stocks of live biomass, deadwood, forest floor, and mineral soil followed similar trends with total ecosystem C. Path analysis showed that both rotation age and overstorey composition simultaneously drove economic gains and C stocks that led to their trade-off relationship. We further indicated that maximum economic gains (USD 5000/ha) could lead to approximately 40% loss of total ecosystem C, while the maximum total ecosystem C (320 Mg/ha) could be attained when giving up 50% of economic gains. These results provide broad guides for forest managers and decision-makers towards balancing economic and C objectives in forest management by integrating into a forest carbon market.

Assessing the effects of Close-to-Nature Forestry on forest birds in the eastern United States: A case study and way forward

Over the last half-century, North American forest birds have experienced staggering declines, while at the same time, many metrics indicate that North American forest health has improved. While the United States has been recognised for global leadership in innovation and research in forestry, the negative impacts of high-severity harvesting methods and forest fragmentation are sometimes overlooked, and a dearth of research studies exist that assess the impacts of lower-severity forestry practices on birds. Globally, some regions are pursuing markedly different forestry practices, and one example is Europe’s Close-To-Nature Forestry (CTNF) that protects forest canopies. Historically, CTNF methods have not been promoted to help avian abundance or diversity; however, forest bird populations in Europe have increased 7% over the last two decades, and we posit whether similar forest management approaches in the eastern USA could benefit North American birds. Therefore, we sought to 1) assess the effects of forest structural characteristics on avian species richness in a CTNF-managed forest in the eastern USA; 2) compare our results to county-level eBird data to identify the challenges of assessing the impacts of forestry practices on birds at landscape scales; 3) highlight the ambiguities in current forest management guidelines for improving avian habitats in the USA and 4) suggest long-term direction for evaluating the impacts of alternative forest management practices on birds. Our case study provides preliminary evidence that CTNF-managed forests may support diverse birds of high conservation value that are normally drawn to different forest management extremes. We also provide recommendations for utilising eBird data to assess alternative forest management strategies at landscape scales and a synthesised look at the forest management guidelines provided by many of the major players in American ornithology. While there may be multiple reasons for forest bird declines noted in the past 50 years in North America, long-standing forest management practices and policies should not be overlooked.

Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) applied to evaluating the forest management approaches

The study mainly aims at looking into the disparities in beneficiary’s socio-economic status between the areas without implementation of forestry plans and the areas where forestry plans had initially been available even though they have recently been terminated as well. Babol Roud forestry plan is located in Lafoor forest area in the Babol County, the Mazandaran Province, Northeast Iran. This research was divided into three steps: first of all, by making use of Cochran’s formula, we identified the number of participants. Later on, the Delphi method was employed in order to determine criteria and subcriteria through the questionnaires. From then on, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) was used to quantify the criteria that were weighted by experts’ viewpoints through the planned questionnaires. By adopting the Fuzzy Forests method, we found out that the economic, environmental, social and managerial criteria are most prominent. Forestry project staff’s income was in the highest relative weight (0.23) based on participant’s viewpoint. Most of the participants in the study did not give their consent to the forestry plan suspension due to the inevitably forthcoming economic and environmental problems ahead. Instead, they strongly underlined the need to go into immediate action such as revising the former plans as well as constant stream of close attention to the plan execution details of the ongoing process. Eventually, developing a new policy and using alternative forest management strategies that would meet the needs of all various stakeholders have been recommended.

Nordic forest management towards climate change mitigation: time dynamic temperature change impacts of wood product systems including substitution effects

Climate change mitigation trade-offs between increasing harvests to exploit substitution effects versus accumulating forest carbon sequestration complicate recommendations for climate beneficial forest management. Here, a time dynamic assessment ascertains climate change mitigation potential from different rotation forest management alternatives across three Swedish regions integrating the forest decision support system Heureka RegWise with a wood product model using life cycle assessment data. The objective is to increase understanding on the climate effects of varying the forest management. Across all regions, prolonging rotations by 20% leads on average to the largest additional net climate benefit until 2050 in both, saved emissions and temperature cooling, while decreasing harvests by 20% leads to the cumulatively largest net climate benefits past 2050. In contrast, increasing harvests or decreasing the rotation period accordingly provokes temporally alternating net emissions, or slight net emission, respectively, regardless of a changing market displacement factor. However, future forest calamities might compromise potential additional temperature cooling from forests, while substitution effects, despite probable prospective decreases, require additional thorough and time explicit assessments, to provide more robust policy consultation.

The Unseen Effects of Deforestation: Biophysical Effects on Climate

Climate policy has thus far focused solely on carbon stocks and sequestration to evaluate the potential of forests to mitigate global warming. These factors are used to assess the impacts of different drivers of deforestation and forest degradation as well as alternative forest management. However, when forest cover, structure and composition change, shifts in biophysical processes (the water and energy balances) may enhance or diminish the climate effects of carbon released from forest aboveground biomass. The net climate impact of carbon effects and biophysical effects determines outcomes for forest and agricultural species as well as the humans who depend on them. Evaluating the net impact is complicated by the disparate spatio-temporal scales at which they operate. Here we review the biophysical mechanisms by which forests influence climate and synthesize recent work on the biophysical climate forcing of forests across latitudes. We then combine published data on the biophysical effects of deforestation on climate by latitude with a new analysis of the climate impact of the CO2 in forest aboveground biomass by latitude to quantitatively assess how these processes combine to shape local and global climate. We find that tropical deforestation leads to strong net global warming as a result of both CO2 and biophysical effects. From the tropics to a point between 30°N and 40°N, biophysical cooling by standing forests is both local and global, adding to the global cooling effect of CO2 sequestered by forests. In the mid-latitudes up to 50°N, deforestation leads to modest net global warming as warming from released forest carbon outweighs a small opposing biophysical cooling. Beyond 50°N large scale deforestation leads to a net global cooling due to the dominance of biophysical processes (particularly increased albedo) over warming from CO2 released. Locally at all latitudes, forest biophysical impacts far outweigh CO2 effects, promoting local climate stability by reducing extreme temperatures in all seasons and times of day. The importance of forests for both global climate change mitigation and local adaptation by human and non-human species is not adequately captured by current carbon-centric metrics, particularly in the context of future climate warming.

Impacts of Forest Management on Forest Bird Occurrence Patterns—A Case Study in Central Europe

The global increase in demand for wood products, calls for a more sustainable management of forests to optimize both the production of wood and the conservation of forest biodiversity. In this paper, we evaluate the status and future trends of forest birds in Central European forests, assuming different forest management scenarios that to a varying degree respond to the demand for wood production. To this end, we use niche models (Boosted Regression Trees and Generalized Linear Models) to model the responses of 15 forest bird species to predictors related to forest stand (e.g., stand volume of specific tree species) and landscape structure (e.g., percentage cover), and to climate (bioclimatic variables). We then define five distinct forest management scenarios, ranging from set-aside to productivity-driven scenarios, project them 100 years into the future, and apply our niche models into these scenarios to assess the birds’ responses to different forest management alternatives. Our models show that the species’ responses to management vary reflecting differences in their ecological niches, and consequently, no single management practice can benefit all species if applied across the whole landscape. Thus, we conclude that in order to promote the overall forest bird species richness in the study region, it is necessary to manage the forests in a multi-functional way, e.g., by spatially optimizing the management practices in the landscape.

Interpreting wind damage risk\u2013how multifunctional forest management impacts standing timber at risk of wind felling

Landscape multifunctionality, a widely accepted challenge for boreal forests, aims to simultaneously provide timber, non-timber ecosystem services, and shelter for biodiversity. However, multifunctionality requires the use of novel forest management regimes optimally combined over the landscape, and an increased share of sets asides. It remains unclear how this combination will shape stand vulnerability to wind disturbances and exposed timber volume. We combined forest growth simulations and multi-objective optimization to create alternative landscape level forest management scenarios. Management choices were restricted to 1) rotation forestry, 2) continuous cover forestry, and 3) all regimes allowed over a harvest intensity gradient from completely set aside landscapes to maximal economic gain. Estimates for the stands’ structural and environmental characteristics were used to predict the stand level wind damage probability. We evaluated averaged wind-exposed standing timber volume and changing forest structure under management scenarios. Intensive rotation forestry reduced tree heights and wind damage risk, but also reduced landscape multifunctionality. Conversely, continuous cover forestry maintained multifunctionality but increased wind damage probability due to taller trees and higher thinning frequency. Overall, continuous cover forestry lowers the total volume of wind exposed timber at any given time compared with rotation forestry. Nevertheless, a selective application of rotation forestry contributes to high economic gains and increases landscape heterogeneity. A combination of management approaches across landscapes provides an efficient way to reduce the amount of wind-exposed timber volume while also increasing habitat for vertebrate and non-vertebrate species and satisfying high timber demands.

Forest benefits and willingness to pay for sustainable forest management

The Desa'a forest in Tigray is a national forest priority area managed by the government. Government authorities grant access to local communities as the forest is the source of income for many households. To allow the forest provide such economic needs and ecological functions, its sustainability needs to be ensured. We studied the effect of a demand-relevant economic attribute and two policy–relevant ecological attributes to examine preference for alternative forest management mechanisms. We find positive preference for the supply of forest products and soil and water conservation. Marginal WTP is higher for the most sustainable levels, indicating households' preference to forest management mechanisms that ensure supply of forest products for longer periods and significantly reduce soil erosion and water loss. On the other hand, observed heterogeneity implies differences in preferences and tradeoffs between economic benefits (forest products) and ecological improvements (soil and water conservation). Overall, the positive preference for these important attributes emanates both from realizations of economic benefits and ecological services from the forest, suggesting the importance of incorporating such competing preferences (interests and needs) in forest management plans.

Risk Aversion and Timber Harvest Strategies: A Case Study of Nonindustrial Private Forest Management in Louisiana

Forest owners face many challenges regarding forest management due to the long period from planting to harvest. Along with the economic and environmental factors that influence management actions, the owners' attitude to risk plays a crucial role in forest management decisions. This study shows that understanding the effects of the owner's risk preference for management actions is an important step to form an effective forest policy. The objectives of the study are to (1) assess the economic advantage of forest management alternatives over a range of risk aversion coefficients and (2) determine the financial incentive (risk premium) corresponding to a forest owners' risk attitude. We implemented the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function framework to evaluate a set of fertilization, herbicide, and thinning management alternatives at mid-rotation loblolly pine plantations in Louisiana. Results from this study indicate that forest owner's risk preference affects their decision to select management actions. Financial incentives are substantially different for specific management alternatives between risk-neutral and risk-averse forest owners. The results can guide forest policy development where agencies can modify financial assistance programs to improve the adoption of management actions.

The management costs of alternative forest management strategies in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Wildfires play an important ecological role in fire-adapted landscapes throughout California. However, there is a growing awareness that large wildfires in increasingly populated areas incur costs that may not be acceptable to society. Various forest management strategies have been proposed that seek to reduce the prevalence and severity of wildfires in areas where these costs are high. In this study we estimate the financial costs of various hypothetical forest management scenarios in the Lake Tahoe West landscape of Northern California. The objective of the study was to quantify trade-offs and cost constraints that would affect the feasibility of each scenario. The scenarios ranged from minimal forest management to several options for more intensive fuels management that relied to varying degrees on thinning and prescribed burning. We assessed stand-level costs associated with thinning, prescribed burn management, and timber and biomass transport, as well as revenues from timber and energy chips sold. Using modeled fire occurrence and severity metrics, we also used historical wildfire data to estimate plausible fire suppression costs. Our findings suggest that increased forest management, through the use of either hand/mechanical treatments or prescribed fire, can reduce fire suppression costs relative to recent practices by more than US$400,000 per year. These more intensive management scenarios differ in their cost-effectiveness. Scenarios that increase the use of prescribed fire appear to be the more cost-effective management interventions available with annual costs roughly half as much as a scenario focused on increased hand and mechanical thinning. The results are useful for understanding the financial implications of modifying forest management practices designed to lower the private and social costs of wildfire in the region.

How can the forest sector mitigate climate change in a changing climate? Case studies of boreal and northern temperate forests in eastern Canada

Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement, and thus requires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies. The aim of this study was to assess and compare the cumulative effects on carbon dynamics of forest management and climate change on boreal and northern temperate forest sector in eastern Canada for the 2020–2100 period. We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS-II and its extension Forest Carbon Succession, in conjunction with the Carbon Budget Model for Harvested Wood Products framework. We simulated the dynamics of forest composition and carbon flows from forest ecosystems to wood products and their substitution effect on markets under increasing climate forcing, according to a tonne-year approach. Simulations were conducted for a series of forest management scenarios based on realistic practices principally by clearcut in the boreal territory and continuous-cover forestry in the northern temperate one. These scenarios included: i) a business-as-usual scenario (BaU), representing the current management strategy, ii) increased harvesting by 6.3% to 13.9%, iii) increased conservation (i.e. reduced harvesting by 11.1% to 49.8%), iiii) and a scenario representing the natural evolution of the forest landscape (i.e. without any management activity). Our study revealed that increasing harvesting levels had contrasting effects on the mitigation potential in northern temperate (enhance net sequestration) and boreal forest sector (enhance net emissions) in comparison to the BaU from 2040 onwards, regardless of the future climate. Carbon storage in wood products and the substitution effect were not sufficient to offset carbon emissions from ecosystems. Moreover, climate change had a strong impact on the capacity of both landscapes to act as carbon sinks. Northern temperate landscapes became a net source of carbon over time due to their greater vulnerability to climate change than boreal landscapes. Our study highlights the need to consider the initial landscape characteristics in simulations to maximize the mitigation potential of alternative forest management strategies. The optimal management solution can be very different according to the characteristics of forest ecosystems. This opens the possibility of optimizing management for specific forest stands, with the objective of maximizing the mitigation potential of a given landscape.

Comparing smoke emissions and impacts under alternative forest management regimes

Smoke from wildfires has become a growing public health issue around the world but especially in western North America and California. At the same time, managers and scientists recommend thinning and intentional use of wildland fires to restore forest health and reduce smoke from poorly controlled wildfires. Because of the changing climate and management paradigms, the evaluation of smoke impacts needs to shift evaluations from the scale of individual fire events to long-term fire regimes and regional impacts under different management strategies. To confront this challenge, we integrated three widely used modeling tools to analyze smoke impacts across different management scenarios within a future of changing climate. We applied this multi-stage framework to a case study analysis in the Lake Tahoe basin, in which managers proposed scenarios that involved varying levels of hand- and mechanical-thinning treatments and prescribed fires. We began by using the LANDIS-II model to project daily emissions of fine particulate matter from wildland fires under various climate and management scenarios over a century. We also modeled dispersion and health impacts based upon individual wildfire events selected to be representative of different management scenarios. For those events, we modeled smoke conveyance to downwind communities from representative future fires using the BlueSky smoke dispersion model. Lastly, we estimated human health impacts resulting from the modeled smoke using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP model. Our results suggest that emissions from wildfires will substantially increase in future decades; however, increased levels of forest thinning could substantially reduce those emissions and harmful health impacts from large wildfires. We also found that increased use of prescribed burning could reduce the health impacts associated with large wildfires but would also increase the frequency of low levels of emissions. Furthermore, the modeling results suggested that individual prescribed fires could have substantial health impacts if dispersion conditions are unfavorable. Our results suggest that increased management is likely to yield important benefits given expected increases in wildfire activity associated with climate change. However, there remain many challenges to projecting the effects of alternative management regimes, especially ones that involve substantial increases in intentional burning.