How can the forest sector mitigate climate change in a changing climate? Case studies of boreal and northern temperate forests in eastern Canada

Abstract

Forest based climate mitigation emerged as a key component of the Paris Agreement, and thus requires robust science to reduce uncertainties related to such strategies. The aim of this study was to assess and compare the cumulative effects on carbon dynamics of forest management and climate change on boreal and northern temperate forest sector in eastern Canada for the 2020–2100 period. We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS-II and its extension Forest Carbon Succession, in conjunction with the Carbon Budget Model for Harvested Wood Products framework. We simulated the dynamics of forest composition and carbon flows from forest ecosystems to wood products and their substitution effect on markets under increasing climate forcing, according to a tonne-year approach. Simulations were conducted for a series of forest management scenarios based on realistic practices principally by clearcut in the boreal territory and continuous-cover forestry in the northern temperate one. These scenarios included: i) a business-as-usual scenario (BaU), representing the current management strategy, ii) increased harvesting by 6.3% to 13.9%, iii) increased conservation (i.e. reduced harvesting by 11.1% to 49.8%), iiii) and a scenario representing the natural evolution of the forest landscape (i.e. without any management activity). Our study revealed that increasing harvesting levels had contrasting effects on the mitigation potential in northern temperate (enhance net sequestration) and boreal forest sector (enhance net emissions) in comparison to the BaU from 2040 onwards, regardless of the future climate. Carbon storage in wood products and the substitution effect were not sufficient to offset carbon emissions from ecosystems. Moreover, climate change had a strong impact on the capacity of both landscapes to act as carbon sinks. Northern temperate landscapes became a net source of carbon over time due to their greater vulnerability to climate change than boreal landscapes. Our study highlights the need to consider the initial landscape characteristics in simulations to maximize the mitigation potential of alternative forest management strategies. The optimal management solution can be very different according to the characteristics of forest ecosystems. This opens the possibility of optimizing management for specific forest stands, with the objective of maximizing the mitigation potential of a given landscape.