Forest Frontier Research Articles

Rural Roads Are Paving the Way for Land-Use Intensification in the Uplands of Laos

Road expansion has played a prominent role in the agrarian transition that marked the integration of swidden-based farming systems into the market economy in Southeast Asia. Rural roads deeply altered the landscape and livelihood structures by allowing the penetration of boom crops such as hybrid maize in remote territories. In this article, we investigate the impact of rural road developments on livelihoods in northern Laos through a longitudinal study conducted over a period of 15 years in a forest frontier. We studied adaptive management strategies of local stakeholders through the combination of individual surveys, focus group discussions, participatory mapping and remote-sensing approaches. The study revealed the short-term benefits of the maize feeder roads on poverty alleviation and rural development, but also the negative long-term effects on agroecosystem health and agricultural productivity related to unsustainable land use. Lessons learnt about the mechanisms of agricultural intensification helped understanding the constraints faced by external interventions promoting sustainable land management practices. When negotiated by local communities for their own interest, roads may provide livelihood-enhancing opportunities through access to external resources, rather than undermining them.

Low carbon energy model in West Papua

West Papua is one of the Indonesian remaining forest frontiers expected to contribute greatly to countries’ climate commitments. Although fast economic growth in West Papua may results in high emission to the environment, especially in the energy sector. This study aimed to simulate the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) linked to Emission variables and integrate climate-smart development. The dynamic system model will integrate the influencing factors such as GRDP, capital, investment, and emission in West Papua. The modeling stage comprises of concept drafting, modeling, model simulation, and validation process. Powersim 10 is used to run the model. A causal loop diagram of the initial model scenario is formed of one variable is positive (reinforcing). Modeling results has been declared valid by the AME value of 4,96%. The implementation of NDC 41% in the economic sector will cut GRDP to approximately a half than business as usual GRDP. Based on the initial scenario, the model simulations indicate that the CO2 emission along the simulation period is defined to the year 2030, about 14,397,034,50 tonCO2/year on average. After the structural intervention is conducted, the CO2 emission decrease up to 25,6%, reducing emission according to NDC, 41% will correct the economy.

Year-to-year ecosystem services supply in conservation contexts in north-eastern Madagascar: Trade-offs between global demands and local needs

Tropical mountain forest frontier landscapes are increasingly target of protected areas (PAs) implementation, in many cases to secure the supply of globally demanded ecosystem services (ES). However, whether PAs manage to achieve their objectives is not always clear, nor are the implications of PA establishment for the supply of ES relevant for local populations. To address these knowledge gaps, we assess the year-to-year supply of six stakeholder-relevant ES across ES categories in two forest frontier, mountainous landscapes in the periphery of PAs in north-eastern Madagascar. As ES most relevant to local populations, we assess food crops production, flood control and bequest value. As globally-demanded ES, we evaluate export cash crops production, global climate regulation and existence value. Our results suggest that PA implementation managed to stem on-going losses of global climate regulation and existence value, but at the expense of also driving decreases in food crops production and bequest value supply to local populations. While our findings are encouraging for global conservation objectives, they also highlight the stark costs local populations might incur under PA establishment, and thus the need to assure that local livelihoods and well-being, including cultural dimensions, are not undermined by conservation interventions.

Which Socio-economic Conditions Drive the Selection of Agroforestry at the Forest Frontier?

Models are essential to assess the socio-economic credentials of new agroforestry systems. In this study, we showcase robust optimisation as a tool to evaluate agroforestry’s potential to meet farmers’ multiple goals. Our modelling approach has three parts. First, we use a discrete land-use model to evaluate two agroforestry systems (alley cropping and silvopasture) and conventional land uses against five socio-economic objectives, focusing on the forest frontier in eastern Panama. Next, we couple the land-use model with robust optimisation, to determine the mix of land uses (farm portfolio) that minimises trade-offs between the five objectives. Here we consider uncertainty to simulate the land-use decisions of a risk-averse farmer. Finally, we assess how the type and amount of agroforestry included in the optimal land-use portfolio changes under different environmental, socio-economic and political scenarios, to explore the conditions that may make agroforestry more attractive for farmers. We identify silvopasture as a promising land use for meeting farmers’ goals, especially for farms with less productive soils. The additional labour demand compared to conventional pasture, however, may prove an important barrier to adoption for farms facing acute labour shortages. The selection of agroforestry responded strongly to changes in investment costs and timber prices, suggesting that cost-sharing arrangements and tax incentives could be effective strategies to enhance adoption. We found alley cropping to be less compatible with farmers’ risk aversion, but this agroforestry system may still be a desirable complement to the land-use portfolio, especially for farmers who are more profit-oriented and tolerant of risk.

GGE biplot-based genetic selection to guide interspecific crossing in Corymbia spp.

ABSTRACT Tree breeders are prioritizing the increase of the interspecific diversity in the breeding programs due to the pronounced environmental changes, and expansion of the forest frontier to less productive areas. In this scenario, there is a growing interest for species of the genus Corymbia due to their good growth, resistance to biotic and abiotic factors, and industrial properties. Also, Corymbia spp. can cross with each other, generating interspecific hybrids. However, there are great difficulties on defining the best crosses. Thus, the objectives of this study were to evaluate the genetic variability of 64 progenies of Corymbia maculata and 64 progenies of Corymbia torelliana and to use the GGE biplot method to point the most appropriated crosses to broad and specific environments in order to generate stable and productive interspecific hybrids of C. maculata and C. torelliana. The GGE biplot was an efficient method for evaluating the genetic variability between progenies, for visualizing the genotype by environment interaction pattern and for identifying the best crosses in order to generate interspecific hybrids of the species. By adopting a selection intensity of 10%, the recommended progenies to generate interspecific hybrids for the Aracruz municipality (ARA) were 10, 40, 49, 64, 20, 9 and 47 of C. maculata and 24, 56, 41, 64, 43, 31 and 12 of C. torelliana. For Tres Lagoas municipality (TLA), the recommended progenies were 11, 17, 1, 48, 7, 63 and 21 of C. maculata and 42, 46, 61, 44, 10, 63 and 28 of C. torelliana.

The potential of agroforestry concessions to stabilize Amazonian forest frontiers: a case study on the economic and environmental robustness of informally settled small-scale cocoa farmers in Peru

Agroforestry Concessions, foreseen by the new Peruvian Forest Law, anticipate integrating thousands of small-scale farmers encroached on public forest land into the formal economy, to strengthen local livelihoods, stimulate land restoration, and halt deforestation. But, there are contrasting opinions regarding the potential of agroforestry and land tenure security to create economically and environmentally robust livelihoods. To better understand the relevance of this potential, this study analyses the economic and environmental robustness of 118 informally settled small-scale cocoa farmers in three districts in the Peruvian Amazon. The study shows that the vast majority of these farmers faced serious obstacles to overcome. Less than 20 % of the households have managed to establish economically robust livelihoods on a robust natural production basis. Farm size, specialization in cocoa, and participation in associations positively influenced the economic performance of the households but had little effect on the quality of natural resource management and on the capacity to conserve forests. To harness the potential of cocoa farming requires long-term support well adapted to local specificities. The legal recognition of sustainable land-use practices on public forest land is a meaningful step. To effectively address deforestation, however, requires broader integrated approaches that go far beyond the promotion of sustainable land-uses.

Quantifying local ecosystem service outcomes by modelling their supply, demand and flow in Myanmar’s forest frontier landscape

ABSTRACT In complex tropical forest frontier landscapes, ecosystem service (ES) models are essential tools to test impacts of different land schemes on people. Considering several factors of supply, demand and flow and focusing on local stakeholders, we developed nine ES models using Bayesian networks and applied them in different land scenarios in Myanmar’s Tanintharyi Region. We found land use and tenure as well as demand for specific products to be the key factors determining final ES outcomes. While forested lands have high regulating and overall balanced ES bundles, mixed agricultural lands provide subsistence and commercial products as well as better environmental education opportunities. By contrast, commercial agricultural concessions strongly limit ES outcomes for local communities. As our models reveal more distinct impacts of land policy scenarios in a homogeneous setting, where demand is better accounted for, we recommend their use for spatially explicit analyses of forest frontier landscapes.

Eucalyptus expansion in Brazil: Energy yield in new forest frontiers

An expansion of planted Eucalyptus spp. forests can supply an important part of society's demand for biofuels. To do so, a diversity of genetic materials field-grown under seasonal drought stress, different soil type and technological wood qualities have to be evaluated in new forest frontiers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the yield and wood characteristics of five Eucalyptus spp. clones in a field experiment with regard to E. urophylla x E. grandis, E. resinifera x E. grandis, E. pellita x E. grandis, E. urophylla x E. camaldulensis, and E. urophylla species/hybrids at three sites in the Midwest region of Brazil, considered a new forest frontier in the country. The experiments were installed in the cities of Catalão, Luziânia, and Corumbá, Goiás state, Brazil. The mean annual increment (MAI) was calculated, trees were cut and wood samples were obtained five years after installing the experiment to determine the wood basic density, higher heating value, energy density, dry mass, and energy yield. The energy yield and wood characteristics of Eucalyptus spp. were influenced by genotype (clone), environment (site), and interaction (genotype x environment) at different intensity levels. The clone with E. camaldulensis genes presented good performance (MAI) under adverse conditions (Corumbá) and the wood basic density of this clone may be less affected by environmental variations when compared to the other clones and species/hybrids evaluated in this study. The C1 clone (E. urophylla x E. grandis) was the most suitable for large-scale forest implantation in the Corumbá region. The C2 clone (E. resinifera x E. grandis) results showed it to be the most suitable for Catalão, while the best clones for Luziânia were C1 and C2. This study can be used as an indication for choosing the best eucalyptus for new areas (new forest frontiers) with similar edaphoclimatic conditions.

The impact of oil palm on rural livelihoods and tropical forest landscapes in Latin America

Abstract Does oil palm boost agricultural growth and reduce rural poverty, or is it a threat to rural livelihoods and tropical forest landscapes? This paper introduces a Special Issue on this question, focusing on Latin America. It reviews available literature and data for countries where oil palm either covers large areas (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Honduras) or has recently expanded (Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico, Peru), and presents evidence from nine case studies (including Nicaragua). Combining political economy with a livelihood approach, this article discusses how dissimilar policies supporting oil palm combined with contrasting agrarian change dynamics, market structures, and institutional arrangements driving rural inclusion (and exclusion) in oil palm production have resulted in a variety of expansion trajectories (ranging from smallholder-to plantation-based, plus mixed forms in between) and outcomes across the region. Main findings show that rural livelihoods and landscapes are most threatened where industrial plantations predominate, particularly in weakly governed forest frontiers, while oil palm is beneficial where policies guarantee land access and support smallholders. However, policies that are beneficial to smallholders do not preclude conflicts between oil palm smallholders (often migrant settlers) and forest-dependent (indigenous and Afro-descendant) communities opposing this industry.

Mixed Effectiveness of REDD+ Subnational Initiatives after 10 Years of Interventions on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Since 2010, the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) mechanism has been implemented in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, a biodiversity hotspot with persistent deforestation problems. We apply the before-after-control-intervention approach and quasi-experimental methods to evaluate the effectiveness of REDD+ interventions in reducing deforestation at municipal (meso) and community (micro) scales. Difference-in-differences regression and propensity score matching did not show an overall reduction in forest cover loss from REDD+ projects at both scales. However, Synthetic Control Method (SCM) analyses demonstrated mixed REDD+ effectiveness among intervened municipalities and communities. Funding agencies and number of REDD+ projects intervening in a municipality or community did not appear to affect REDD+ outcomes. However, cattle production and commercial agriculture land uses tended to impede REDD+ effectiveness. Cases of communities with important forestry enterprises exemplified reduced forest cover loss but not when cattle production was present. Communities and municipalities with negative REDD+ outcomes were notable along the southern region bordering Guatemala and Belize, a remote forest frontier fraught with illegal activities and socio-environmental conflicts. We hypothesize that strengthening community governance and organizational capacity results in REDD+ effectiveness. The observed successes and problems in intervened communities deserve closer examination for REDD+ future planning and development of strategies on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Dinâmica espaço-temporal da extração seletiva de madeiras no estado de Mato Grosso entre 1992 e 2016

A extração seletiva de madeiras é uma atividade florestal que inclui a exploração de um grupo de espécies florestais em florestas nativas, normalmente as de maior valor ou interesse comercial. A extração seletiva de madeiras pode ser executada legalmente, em áreas de manejo e de exploração florestal para desmatamentos autorizados ou, ilegalmente, em situações não autorizadas, que ocorrem de forma predatória. No presente estudo, a dinâmica espaço-temporal da extração seletiva de madeiras no estado de Mato Grosso foi avaliada a partir de uma série temporal (de 1992 a 2016) de dados de florestas exploradas seletivamente detectadas, usando dados de sensoriamento remoto. A interpretação visual e a classificação semiautomática de imagens Landsat foram utilizadas para detectar as florestas alteradas por atividades de extração seletiva de madeiras na área de estudo. Com base nos presentes resultados, estimou-se que 41.926 km2 de florestas nativas foram exploradas ao menos uma vez entre 1992 e 2016 em Mato Grosso, com área média anual de 1.747 km2. As florestas exploradas seletivamente e detectadas com distúrbios persistentes ou recorrentes foram mais frequentes nos anos mais recentes desta análise. A maioria das florestas exploradas seletivamente na área e no período de estudo não foram desmatadas até 2016. Esse fato indica que a extração seletiva de madeiras consiste em um fenômeno desagregado do desmatamento no estado de Mato Grosso. Observou-se que uma média de 18 km2.ano-1 e 268,18 km2.ano-1 de florestas foram exploradas seletivamente dentro de Unidades de Conservação e Terras Indígenas, respectivamente, entre 1992 e 2016. As atividades de extração seletiva não apresentaram tendências significativas de aumento ou redução dentro de áreas protegidas no período analisado. As áreas de exploração seletiva de madeira foram persistentemente detectadas nos antigos polos madeireiros localizados na região centro-norte do Estado com, possivelmente, novos ciclos de corte nas áreas manejadas. Mais recentemente, a extração seletiva se expandiu à última fronteira florestal nativa no noroeste do estado de Mato Grosso. Finalmente, concluiu-se que a exploração madeireira impacta grande extensão de florestas nativas anualmente no estado de Mato Grosso e, por isso, precisa ser devidamente considerada e monitorada pelos órgãos ambientais devido aos seus potenciais impactos nas florestas e para apoiar a definição de políticas públicas para garantir a sustentabilidade da produção florestal futura naquele Estado.

How Much Agroforestry Is Needed to Achieve Multifunctional Landscapes at the Forest Frontier?—Coupling Expert Opinion with Robust Goal Programming

Agroforestry has been promoted as a key forest landscape restoration (FLR) option to restore ecosystem services in degraded tropical landscapes. We investigated the share and type of agroforestry selected in an optimized landscape, accounting for a mosaic of alternative forest landscape restoration options (reforestation and natural succession) and forest and common agricultural land-uses. We extend previous studies on multi-objective robust optimization and the analytic hierarchy process by a systematic sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of incorporating agroforestry into a landscape. This approach accounts for multiple objectives concurrently, yet data and computational requirements are relatively low. Our results show that experts from different backgrounds perceive agroforestry (i.e., alley cropping and silvopasture) very positively. Inclusion of large shares of agroforestry (41% share of landscape) in the FLR mix enhanced simulated ecosystem service provision. Our results demonstrate that landscapes with high shares of agroforestry may also comprise of high shares of natural forest. However, landscapes dominated by single agroforestry systems showed lower landscape multifunctionality than heterogeneous landscapes. In the ongoing effort to create sustainable landscapes, our approach contributes to an understanding of interrelations between land-covers and uncertain provisions of ecosystem services in circumstances with scarce data.

Exploring patterns of forest governance quality: Insights from forest frontier communities in Zambia’s Miombo ecoregion

Good forest governance is a prerequisite for sustainable forest management and the successful implementation of initiatives that aim to reduce deforestation and forest degradation. The necessity for good governance is high in Zambia’s Miombo ecoregion, which is characterised by persistent deforestation that also threatens forest-dependent livelihoods. Zambia has adopted policies and initiatives to improve forest governance. We use the Governance of Forests Initiatives (GFI) indicator framework from the World Resource Institute in 24 communities in the Miombo ecoregion to examine Zambia’s status in this respect. The Wilcoxon rank test is applied to compare the de facto governance performance between different arrangements with differing tenures and restrictions to forest access and use. We employ factor analysis to test the applicability of the GFI framework based on community perceptions and cluster analysis to examine whether patterns of community clusters reflect the governance structure of the provincial local government administration. Comparative results show low mean scores for governance indicators, which do not differ significantly between arrangements. This indicates a weak de facto forest governance performance across arrangements, specifically characterised by an inadequate enforcement of rules and restrictions on use, insufficient institutional financial, human and technical capacities and unsatisfactory participatory land use planning and forest policy-making processes. We recommend support for financial and technical institutional capacities combined with coordination mechanisms to permit the satisfactory enforcement of forest rules. Frequent monitoring, apprehension and graduated sanctions are proposed as part of the rule enforcement procedures. Stringent de jure requirements coupled with capacity building for participatory land use planning and public policy participation also need to be adopted. This would also contribute towards achieving targets for Zambia’s climate change response strategy, national development plan 2017–2021 and REDD + preparedness phase. The factor analysis largely confirms the GFI framework’s suitability for governance analysis on the ground since factors generally mirror GFI indicators. However, because de facto governance processes sometimes do not precisely reflect thematic areas of the framework, we warn against the use of single indicators to exclusively represent a thematic area. Similarly, specific attention has to be paid to customary rules and institutions when applying the GFI framework because compared to the framework, the respective aspects are more clearly differentiated on the ground. Cluster analysis reveals a high variability of governance processes within and across provinces. Decentralization measures should take into account clusters that may in some cases follow administrative levels or in other cases go beyond the established administrative boundaries. Specifically, initiatives to integrate customary structures into the decentralized governance structure should take these regional differences into account.

Keragaman Kupu-kupu Pemakan Buah Busuk di Perbatasan Zona Rehabilitasi Taman Nasional Gunung Ciremai Kecamatan Cigugur, Kuningan

Butterflies can be classified based on their feed sources into a nectar-feeding and frugivorous butterfly. Frugiforus butterflies are very sensitive to environmental changes. Furthermore, they are easy to be observed by using a simple sampling method. The research on the diversity of frugivorous butterflies was carried out in the rehabilitation zone of the Ciremai Mountain National Park (TNGC) Region Cigugur, Kuningan. The purpose of this study was to obtain information about the diversity of frugivorous butterflies in the rehabilitation zone of TNGC Region Cigugur, Kuningan, as an indicator of land fragmentation and improve the management of TNGC in the use of natural resources, especially for research activities. Butterflies were sampled using a survey method with purposive sampling using bait traps with rotten bananas as bait. Research locations were in the frontier of the rehabilitation area, Cigugur, Kuningan, West Java, perpendicular to the forest frontier along 200 m, which is at a distance of 0-50 m, 50-100 m, 100-150 m, and 150-200 m. The results showed that the diversity of frugivorous butterfly was relatively high with the discovery of 11 types of butterflies from 1 family Nymphalidae.

From global drivers to local land-use change: understanding the northern Laos rubber boom

Crop booms in forest frontiers are a major contributor to land conversion and deforestation. In this study, we investigate the smallholder-driven northern Laos rubber boom in two case study areas (CSAs) with different speed and intensity of rubber expansion. We assess the relative importance of market, contextual, and behavioral factors in fostering or hindering the conversion of forest to rubber plantations. We develop a Bayesian network (BN) model of land-use change based on household surveys, expert interviews, market price data, and land use maps covering the period 2000–2017. We use regression analysis to inform the structure of the BN, compare model results, and analyze time-varying effects. The BN and regression models incorporate perceived price signals as a combination of market price and local price knowledge, and local self-reinforcing imitation dynamics as a combination of aggregate rubber conversion and imitation behavior elicited in the survey. Results show that deforestation was lower in strictly protected areas but not in forests with lesser protection status. Imitation had a large effect on rubber uptake in both areas. In the CSA that experienced the most intensive spread of rubber, price signals transmitted through social networks had a significant impact, especially throughout the stage of rapid expansion. Rubber expansion continued in both areas during periods of descending prices mainly because of increased cash availability and access to inputs. Our research sheds light on the underlying dynamics of crop booms and contributes to the understanding of agricultural expansion processes.

Diversity of cattle raising systems and its effects over forest regrowth in a core region of cattle production in the Brazilian Amazon

Roughly 60% of all deforested lands in the Brazilian Amazon are covered with pastures, putting cattle raising in evidence as a major driver of deforestation and also of forests’ regrowth. Still, the role of cattle raising diversity in the landscape dynamics of this region remains poorly understood. To contribute to this discussion, we combined data from semi-structured interviews and quantitative spatially explicit methods to characterize and spatialize cattle raising systems and explore the effects of this diversity over secondary vegetation between 2004 and 2014 in Pará, a hotspot of deforestation and core region of cattle production. We quantified the use of different pasture management strategies to classify small- and large-scale operations into systems with high or low impact against pastures’ degradation. High-impact systems were mapped in regions with consolidated infrastructure and high accumulated deforestation, where they expanded. On the contrary, low-impact systems were more widespread and found near forest frontiers, shrinking over time. High-impact systems had less secondary vegetation, while under low-impact systems, as a result of strategies with little or no effect against degradation, the historical pattern of concentration of this cover prevailed. Better infrastructure and access to markets as well as higher accumulated deforestation are underlying conditions related to the emergence of intensification and, as it is still unclear whether intensification is indeed capable of sparing land, the expansion of intensive cattle raising systems has the potential to configure landscapes with reduced forested areas, either primary or secondary.

A goal programming approach to evaluate agroforestry systems in Eastern Panama

Agroforestry is hypothesised to increase ecological and economic functions of farms. Yet it is unclear if and how much agroforestry should be embedded in diversified farming systems to satisfy farmers' needs while potentially enhancing environmental services. To address this research gap we use a mathematical programming model to investigate the role of different agroforestry systems in hypothetical farm portfolios that reduce trade-offs between farmers' goals. Our approach is innovative because it simultaneously considers multiple objectives and the effect of land-use diversification within a farm, is based on knowledge and perceptions of local farmers, and accounts for heterogeneity in farmer judgement. We test the model in a forest frontier region in Eastern Panama, using data from farmer interviews. Farmers evaluated conventional land uses and two agroforestry systems (silvopasture and alley cropping) against 10 pre-defined socio-economic and ecological objectives. First we determined the optimal farm land-use composition that reduces trade-offs between the 10 objectives. The model selects the mix of land uses that secures the best worst-case performance across all objectives, when considering uncertainty in the ability of each land use to achieve each objective (which we quantify by the variability in farmer opinion). Agroforestry dominates the optimised farm portfolio, which comprises 60% silvopasture, 39% forest and 1% plantation. This land-use portfolio, however, deviates strongly from the current land use of farmers, which is 59% pasture, 26% crops, 14% forest and 1% plantation. In a second step we explore the implicit objectives driving farmers' current land-use decisions. We find that immediate-term needs related to food security and liquidity best explain farmers' current land-use portfolio; optimising for these objectives produces a land-use portfolio comprising 60% pasture and 40% crops, which is similar to the current land use. This suggests that increasing agroforestry adoption in the study area will require systems that provide early and frequent returns and allow for ongoing crop production, to better satisfy farmers’ cash flow and household consumption needs.

Unmasking secondary vegetation dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon

Secondary vegetation (SV) from land abandonment is a common transition phase between agricultural uses following tropical deforestation. The impact of SV on carbon sequestration and habitat fragmentation across tropical forest frontiers therefore depends on SV dynamics and demographics. Here, we used time series of annual MapBiomas land cover data to generate the first estimates of SV extent, age, and net carbon uptake in the Brazilian Amazon between 1985 and 2017. SV increased over time, totaling 12 Mha in 2017, 44% of which was ≤5 years old. Between 1988 and 2017, 19.6 Mha of SV was cleared, adding 45.5% to the area of primary deforestation detected by the Brazilian monitoring system (PRODES). Rates of SV loss have exceeded PRODES deforestation since 2011. Based on the age and extent of gains and losses, SV was a small net carbon sink during this period (8.9 Tg C yr−1). As SV is not formally protected by national environmental legislation or monitored by PRODES, long-term benefits from SV in the Brazilian Amazon remain uncertain.

Capabilities Under Telecoupling: Human Well-Being Between Cash Crops and Protected Areas in North-Eastern Madagascar

Global change processes are increasing their pace and reach, leading to telecoupled situations, where distant factors come to outpace local determinants of land use change. Often, these dynamics drive agricultural intensification processes, with as yet unclear implications for the well-being of human populations living in the areas affected. This study explores how two key telecoupling dynamics affect local well-being in the biodiversity hotspot of Madagascar. It focuses on forest frontier landscapes, which are undergoing processes of agricultural intensification as a consequence of distant factors. Concretely, we look at how the recent establishment of two, largely externally funded, terrestrial protected areas, Masoala National Park and Makira Natural Park, and the ongoing price boom for two export cash crops, vanilla and clove, have influenced the well-being of local populations in the country’s north-east. We present data from eight focus group discussions conducted in four villages located on the periphery of the two protected areas. Drawing on the ‘capabilities approach’, we identify the key components of the local understanding of well-being, lay out the interconnections between these components, and explore how the two telecoupling processes explored affect well-being dynamics. Our findings reveal that well-being components present bundle characteristics, where increases or decreases in one component lead to parallel increases or decreases in a set of them. We further ascertain that telecoupling processes might lead to trade-offs between well-being components. These findings highlight the need for a holistic understanding of human well-being when planning protected areas, and when designing governance mechanisms to steer local landscapes under intense cash crop price fluctuations towards sustainable outcomes.

Participatory Bayesian network modeling to understand driving factors of land-use change decisions: insights from two case studies in northeast Madagascar

ABSTRACTForest frontiers worldwide reveal trade-offs that are key in mitigating global change. In the forest frontiers of northeast Madagascar, land-use changes result from decisions made by smallholder farmers. In the past, subsistence needs led to increasing shifting cultivation, resulting in forest degradation and deforestation. This study focuses on investigating the role of locally determined factors in land-use change decisions in the forest frontier context. Therefore, we developed a Bayesian network-based land-use decision model that represents the causalities between factors influencing land-use decisions and takes into account local decision-makers’ knowledge. The approach is applied in two comparative case studies in northeast Madagascar. Results show that farmers mostly aim at extending the cultivation of cash crops. These results and the causal mechanisms disentangled for the forest frontier of northeast Madagascar help understand change mechanisms and hence, support decision-making to attain the Sustainable Development Goals.