Low carbon energy model in West Papua

Abstract

West Papua is one of the Indonesian remaining forest frontiers expected to contribute greatly to countries’ climate commitments. Although fast economic growth in West Papua may results in high emission to the environment, especially in the energy sector. This study aimed to simulate the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) linked to Emission variables and integrate climate-smart development. The dynamic system model will integrate the influencing factors such as GRDP, capital, investment, and emission in West Papua. The modeling stage comprises of concept drafting, modeling, model simulation, and validation process. Powersim 10 is used to run the model. A causal loop diagram of the initial model scenario is formed of one variable is positive (reinforcing). Modeling results has been declared valid by the AME value of 4,96%. The implementation of NDC 41% in the economic sector will cut GRDP to approximately a half than business as usual GRDP. Based on the initial scenario, the model simulations indicate that the CO2 emission along the simulation period is defined to the year 2030, about 14,397,034,50 tonCO2/year on average. After the structural intervention is conducted, the CO2 emission decrease up to 25,6%, reducing emission according to NDC, 41% will correct the economy.