Foresight Methods Research Articles

Applying foresight methods at the national level in the field of substance use: Experience from the DRUG-PREP project

Abstract This presentation will focus on the experience from the DRUG-PREP project. While foresight has been used in other sectors, its implementation in the drugs field has previously remained relatively limited. The application of foresight to the drugs sphere is important in recognition of the fast-changing and intersectional nature of drugs and addiction. At the European level, a futures exercise was organized by the EMCDDA (as of July 2024 the European Union Drugs Agency, EUDA) to explore the future of drugs at the European level until 2030. In this landscape, the DRUG-PREP project implemented foresight approaches at the national level, to support preparedness of national drug monitoring and response systems. The DRUG-PREP partners carried out individual national exercises in six countries: Belgium, Czechia, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Portugal. The link to policy was a key aspect of the project, with each country organising a national dialogue to directly engage policymakers. The presentation will focus on the Belgian research. Horizon Scanning was performed to identify trends and megatrends with potential implications on the national drugs ecosystem, through a literature review. An expert workshop was organized to validate the trends and explore their implications. Subsequently, a small scenario building exercise was organised to explore the consequences of a clearly defined ‘disruptor’: the ban on opium production in Afghanistan. Finally, a national dialogue allowed discussion with stakeholders on how foresight can be integrated more structurally in the drugs field in Belgium. A summary of the results will be presented. Policymakers across all levels (local, regional, federal) have been active participants in the foresight activities and workshops. The link to policymaking has been crystallized in the integration of foresight into the new Belgian National Drugs Strategy 2024-2025.

Application of the Foresight Method in the Educational Process of Higher Education

In conditions of increasing life expectancy, declining fertility, increased migration and other demographic changes, the Foresight method can help families and society prepare for new challenges and opportunities. For example, anticipating an increase in the number of elderly people may prompt the state to develop a support program for this category of the population, and forecasting an increase in migration may contribute to the development of integration programs for new immigrants. The Foresight method is relevant in the context of demographic changes, as it allows you to predict possible scenarios for the future development of the family and society based on the analysis of current data and trends. This will make it possible to make more informed decisions and develop new tools for the state to improve the demographic situation in the country. The Foresight method is also of great relevance in education, especially in the context of technological innovations. Thus, the purpose of the article is to study the demographic situation of the Russian Federation by the Foresight method in sociology classes. The authors believe that the interest in the Foresight method lies in the fact that it allows the students of the Faculty of Economics and Management of VSTU to develope strategic thinking and planning skills, to apply those in the field of demography as well as in their future professional activity. The article presents the results of a survey of first-year students of Volgograd State Technical University (VSTU) in relation to the demographic situation in the country. The positive and negative factors affecting the demographic situation are considered. Some measures to improve the demography of the Russian Federation are proposed. The proposed Foresight method in the educational process may be of interest to teachers and methodologists of higher education engaged in the development of new approaches to training students.

Foresight in EU policy‐making: Purpose, mindsets and methods

AbstractThis article examines the foundational principles and methodologies of foresight and their integration into EU policy‐making. It explores how foresight can improve policy analysis to create future‐ready, resilient decisions amid uncertainties. By synthesising empirical evidence and interpreting multifaceted issues through an interdisciplinary lens, foresight provides EU policymakers with tools to make informed decisions that remain adaptable in the face of unpredictability. The author argues that foresight, through comprehensive analysis of trends, uncertainties and potential challenges, can guide policymakers in forming future‐focused strategies. Key foresight methods emphasised include horizon scanning, systems analysis, stakeholder engagement and scenario planning. The article advocates a holistic policy approach, urging analysts to acknowledge biases and assumptions while integrating diverse perspectives. Concluding with a framework for responsible policy‐making, the article argues that foresight can shape evidence‐based, inclusive and transparent strategies, ensuring that the EU will be prepared for unpredictable futures.

The use of foresight to anticipate and prioritise innovation system failures: The case of machine learning in broadcasting in South Korea

This article reports on a study applying foresight methods to explore and anticipate innovation system failures in relation to a particular case sector, that of broadcasting in South Korea. Although previous studies of system failures have contributed to an in-depth understanding of innovation system as an analytical concept and provided the base of policy intervention, they have failed to capture different degrees of system failures and their changes in the process of sectoral transformation. Through the application of a sectoral innovation system foresight approach to the broadcasting sector in South Korea’s encounters with artificial intelligence (AI), a series of current and future priorities among nine system failures are identified. The shift of nine system failure priorities between current and five-year time points is captured: the highest priority of system failures moves from directionality failures to market structure failures. By applying a sectoral innovation system foresight approach, we advance theory on system failures and innovation systems. We show that the use of sectoral innovation system foresight approaches can productively be applied to the understanding of current and potential system failures.

Futures empathy for foresight research and practice

Foresight methods help us to think about the future and overcome a bias toward short-term thinking in decision making. However, many approaches to investigating the future tend to leave implicit how individuals involved in the interventions relate to the present and to the future in practice and over time. To address this gap, our study highlights the affordances of two methodologies —Scenario Planning and Future Design. In a pilot study combining these methods, we report the results of the novel hybridized approach applied in strategic planning workshops across four corporations. Initial reflections and learnings from the pilot case study and literature review helps to build understandings of the practical and theoretical workings of the methodological innovation. By investigating this combination of foresight methodologies, this research opens up new ways for thinking about futuring and proposes a theory of Futures Empathy. Futures Empathy harnesses a person’s capacity for empathy in a novel way by applying it toward a future context. It consists of an iterative double looping process between self and a not yet existent future. Through imagination and reflection, foresight methods that build Futures Empathy can enhance personal connection and integration with a longer time horizon, thus overcoming presentism. By proposing a theory of Futures Empathy, we hope to contribute to better present and future relating in practice and over time across a multitude of foresight interventions.

Integrating foresight and evaluation: The example of ParEvo

AbstractThis paper aims to encourage connections between the fields of program evaluation and foresight practice by describing the use of a web application ParEvo as an example of how foresight methods can incorporate evaluative thinking. It begins by introducing the field of foresight practice, along with its differences and commonalities with that of evaluation. It then introduces ParEvo.org and its uses to date, along with a detailed description of how a ParEvo exercise is implemented. An overview is also given of how different types of evaluation activities are built throughout the implementation process. Attention is then focused on three different types of embedded theories of change, and how they can be evaluated. The paper concludes with two observations about the breadth and depth of evaluative thinking present in ParEvo processes and the supporting platform. Some limitations are also acknowledged, arising from the rich nature of the outputs generated and the decentralized nature of the design and operation of ParEvo exercises.

Look to the future, evaluators: Why we should incorporate futures and foresight into building and evaluating theories of change

AbstractThis article makes the case that the traditional construction of theories of change fails to adequately interrogate blind spots about the volatility of our current moment, or consider alternative futures. To substantiate this assertion, the authors draw from their roles as participant‐observers in developing a futures and foresight practice at Democracy Fund, a foundation focused on supporting an “inclusive, multi‐racial democracy that is open, just, resilient, and trustworthy.” The authors provide an overview of whether and how Democracy Fund's practice, which is structured around understanding how a system might respond to sources of disruption, has helped the organization prepare for significant change within a system—and develop theories of change that remain relevant. Authors discuss how the future studies and foresight methods they have used, which include scenario planning and trend‐sensing, deserve more widespread use in the evaluation community, particularly when it comes to developing and evaluating theories of change.

Fusing foresight and futures thinking for a new transformative evaluation paradigm

AbstractThis paper explores the role and potential of foresight in evaluation practice in an increasingly uncertain and complex world. Evaluation designs, which have primarily focused on assessing past and present performance, are becoming less adequate for guiding organizations and strategies toward desired futures. Consequently, there is a pressing need for evaluations to adopt a more future‐focused approach. This article argues for the integration of foresight and futures thinking into evaluation methodologies to support transformative change and tackle the systemic challenges of our time. By drawing on an evaluation case study from the Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra, we demonstrate how applied foresight methods, including Horizon Scanning and a modified Delphi method, enhanced the evaluation process. These methods enabled a forward‐looking perspective essential for informing strategic decision‐making and programming. Specifically, the application of foresight methods in Sitra's evaluation supported assessing the relevance and timeliness of strategic choices, provided options for future programming, and deepened the understanding of complexities around ecological reconstruction and the operational environment. The paper contributes to the evolving discourse and practices on transformative evaluation by offering practical insights into the use of foresight methods, ultimately advocating for a paradigm shift toward more dynamic and future‐oriented evaluation practice.

Understanding and definition of scanning and monitoring of the future space in the context of the product engineering process

AbstractUsing foresight methods such as scenarios, possible futures can be described and anticipated. Needs and requirements as well as product properties can be derived from that, which is necessary to plan successful products for future customers. Changes that occur in the future development can be identified with monitoring and the expected future can be adjusted. A consistent understanding of the use of monitoring for the product engineering process does not exist and is developed in this paper. Thereby, monitoring is considered in the context of validation and located in iPeM.

Human-centred decision support for the common good: a combination of participatory foresight methods

ABSTRACT This paper explores innovative approaches to decision-making for the common good by addressing the challenges posed by participatory foresight techniques such as backcasting and the Delphi method. Our paper is a methodological evaluation of our research that focused on how a more sustainable future vision on the world of sports could replace the currently highly commodified industry that not so long ago had a clear function in providing a good life to humans. This paper aims to contribute to the decision support literature on how the combinations of participation and deliberation with different policy-oriented foresight methodologies entailing both lay and expert knowledge can advance the understanding of values that underpin common good decisions. At the same time, these processes can also uncover concrete actions and policy interventions that can transform current economic and social processes, moving them beyond the utilitarian logic of our realities.

Small countries facing the technological revolution: fostering synergies between economic complexity and foresight research

Purpose Although the significance of technological progress in economic development is well-established in theory and policy, it has remained challenging to agree upon shared priorities for strategies and policies. This paper aims to develop a model of how policymakers can develop effective and easy to communicate strategies for science, technology and economic development. Design/methodology/approach By integrating insights from economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature, a replicable research framework for analysing the opportunities and challenges of technological revolutions for small catching-up countries is developed. The authors highlight key lessons from piloting this framework for informing the strategy and policies for bioeconomy in Estonia towards 2030–2050. Findings The integration of economic complexity research with traditional foresight methods establishes a solid analytical basis for a data-driven analysis of the opportunities for industrial upgrading. The increase in the importance of regional alliances in the global economy calls for further advancement of the analytical toolbox. Integration of complexity, global value chains and export potential assessment approaches offers valuable direction for further research, as it enables discussion of the opportunities of moving towards more knowledge-intensive economic activities along with the opportunities for winning international market share. Originality/value The research merges insights from the economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature in a novel way and illustrates the applicability and priority-setting in a real-life setting.

STUDYING THE APPROACHES OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN FORESIGHT STUDIES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENCE AND GREEN TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADOPTING THEIR EXPERIENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF KAZAKHSTAN

This paper reviews the application of foresight methods in the field of science, especially in the development of green technologies in various European countries, with the aim of identifying the most suitable approaches for future use in Kazakhstan. The analysis shows that green technology forecasting promises to be an effective tool for managing sustainable development. Methods for forecasting green technologies are focused on a systematic approach and integrated solutions, taking into account the environment and social aspects. It is also important to consider both global and local environmental issues to gain a full understanding of future development trends. The article provides a comparison of the Dutch and Danish approaches. Green technology foresight research can play an important role at the national level, especially in integrating sustainability considerations into technology development and innovation processes. They also contribute to the development of more effective and sustainable development strategies for companies and government in Kazakhstan. These studies contribute to increasing environmental awareness and awareness in society regarding the importance of sustainable development. Technology forecasting values the use of Delphi surveys to provide a better understanding of possible future trends. The knowledge gained is the basis for developing strategic plans in the field of green technologies and ensuring sustainable development of the energy sector.

Stakeholders and Their Participation in Foresight Projects

With the expansion of the scope of foresight research, the role and importance of various participants in the relevant projects and the users of their results - stakeholders - simultaneously increase. Whereas previously a significant part of foresight projects were carried out with the involvement of professional experts, in many recent studies the circle of their participants is becoming more diverse and an increasing role belongs to members of the public and other potential beneficiaries. This article explores the theory and best practices of applying the stakeholder analysis method in foresight projects, and an attempt is made to systematically characterize this approach. The place and role of various stakeholders in foresight projects are considered, the main problems, opportunities, and recommendations for using the method are assessed, and the features of its application in conjunction with other foresight methods are characterized.

Developing strategic foresight for drug policy: trends, scenarios, and implications

Background This study utilized foresight analysis to project drug policy trends and challenges in Finland up to 2030. It aimed to develop scenarios and strategies for addressing critical issues and to explore alternative policy options. Methods A comprehensive methodology was employed, including scope analysis, horizon scanning, trend analysis, and scenario building along with the expert panels. This approach facilitated the identification and categorization of trends into mega-trends, emerging trends, and weak signals, ensuring a robust and inclusive analysis. Results Key findings include mega-trends, such as changing drug policies and rising economic burdens. Emerging trends highlight the increase in synthetic, polydrug, and prescription drug use, vulnerability in certain subgroups, and growing drug-related mortality. Weak signals point to the advent of online drug marketplaces and new treatment methods. Past foresight studies agree on market growth and policy inertia but diverge on resource allocation and older generation targeting. Conclusion Developed scenarios and strategies address issues like increasing drug prevalence, service gaps, and market diversification, advocating for integrated approaches in demand reduction, governance, law enforcement, environmental protection, and harm reduction services. This research highlights the significance of participatory foresight methods in shaping Finnish drug policy, offering valuable insights for future trajectories and affirming the importance of foresight in this field.

Mapping the future of public security, justice and the law enforcement

This article presents a thorough analysis of the evolution and future prospects in the field of public security, employing both bibliometric and prospective methods. The bibliometric analysis examines the historical development of research up to 2023, identifying patterns, main areas of study, and influential authors. This deep understanding of the past lays the groundwork for prospective analysis, which uses foresight methods to predict possible scenarios and emerging trends in public security. By combining these approaches, the study offers a comprehensive view of the past and future dynamics of the field. The results of the bibliometric analysis provide a solid understanding of the foundations upon which future research can be built. Through prospective analysis, the article explores potential future directions, critical challenges, and opportunities in the realm of public security.

УСЛОВИЯ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ ДИСКУРСИВНОЙ КОМПЕТЕНТНОСТИ БУДУЩЕГО CLIL-ПЕДАГОГА: ФОРСАЙТ – МЕТОД В ОБРАЗОВАНИИ

The article presents the results of a study of the formation of discursive competence of a future CLIL teacher based on the foresight method, as well as results describing the levels of its development in the test and control groups. The authors emphasize the importance and necessity of creating conditions for the formation of discursive competence of the future CLIL teacher, which is determined by its significance as one of the key components of intercultural communication. The conditions under which the formation of discursive competence will occur most effectively are identified and described: pedagogical conditions: the use of gamification techniques as a means of increasing motivation to study subjects in a foreign language; dialogization of the educational process; availability of methodological materials: “Methodological recommendations for developing the discursive competence of a future CLIL teacher”, as well as “Glossary of CLIL teacher terms (terminological collection)”; organizational and methodological conditions: teaching technologies, project activities, problem-based learning, analysis of specific situations (case analysis); methods and forms of training: frontal group paired individual practical training; teaching aids: audiovisual aids, educational and methodological support, technical aids. The purpose of the study was to theoretically substantiate and experimentally test the effectiveness of pedagogical conditions for the formation of discursive competence of a future CLIL teacher. The participants of the experiment are future CLIL teachers (71 2nd year pedagogical students) of the natural sciences and mathematical majors.

Exploring the future with PRO-SPECT: an evidence-based modular foresight approach

In the face of rapid technological advancements and unforeseen societal events, predicting the future of work proves challenging. Foresight, the exploration of potential futures, emerges as a valuable strategy to navigate labor market uncertainties. However, existing foresight methods often lack alignment with the goals prioritized by sectoral and organizational stakeholders. Addressing this gap, we introduce PRO-SPECT (PROfessional Sectoral perSPECTive), a modular foresight approach crafted through literature review, expert interviews, and workshops. Tailored to meet the needs of policymakers, organizations, and communities, PRO-SPECT consists of four key steps: Scope, Scan, Impact, and Perspective. This evidence-based approach aims to equip stakeholders with actionable insights for the future of work and beyond. This article provides a comprehensive overview of PRO-SPECT, encouraging further adoption and knowledge development in foresight practices.

Enabling gender and social inclusion in climate and agriculture policy and planning through foresight processes: assessing challenges and leverage points

ABSTRACT Scenario-guided foresight processes are increasingly used to engage a broad range of stakeholders in sharing knowledge, reflecting, and setting priorities to respond to present and future climate change related dynamics. They are particularly useful to inform agricultural policies and planning in the face of a changing climate. Such participatory approaches are key to integrating multidisciplinary expertise, perspectives, and viewpoints, and ensuring that the multi-faceted vulnerabilities and the development needs of diverse groups are addressed in the design, planning, and implementation of climate adaptation policy. However, in practice, ensuring meaningful participation in the policy process is far from straightforward. In this paper, we examine the integration of gender and social inclusion considerations in 15 scenario-guided foresight use cases across Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia to determine the ways in which gender and social inclusion dynamics were considered and integrated at different stages of scenario-guided planning processes. To inform the analysis, we use qualitative data from key informant interviews, interviewing scenario coordinators and a gender and social inclusion expert who was engaged in one of the cases; we also review associated reports and outputs. The results suggest that few scenario-guided planning processes centred gender and social inclusion considerations from an early stage and consistently throughout the interventions, translating often into low diversity of stakeholders and insufficient depth reached in the content produced. A number of common challenges are reported including time, budget, and human resource constraints, as well as existing power and institutional dynamics. The latter includes, for instance, low women’s representation in technical organizations or important hierarchical social norms structuring discussions. While the focus on the future can disrupt established modes of doing, the complexity of foresight methods can also undermine effective participation leading to important trade-offs. Innovations in the modes of engagement and parallel processes with diverse groups can be important leverage points for inclusion within policymaking processes.

Exploring occupational safety and health in future workscapes

Aims: The aim of this manuscript is to address the evolving dynamics of work, which are placing increasing demands on current occupational safety and health (OSH) protocols. It emphasizes the need for a more adaptable approach to ensure safe and efficient work environments. The primary objective is to introduce new frameworks capable of handling the uncertainties of the future in OSH.
 Methods: To tackle the challenges posed by the changing landscape of work, the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has adopted a strategic foresight approach. This approach is rooted in future studies and strategic planning, allowing NIOSH to anticipate future challenges in OSH. It involves creating well-structured and informed scenarios of potential futures, enabling organizations to prepare effectively for upcoming challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
 Results: This manuscript represents NIOSH's inaugural foray into strategic foresight. The results showcase the integration of strategic foresight methods to enhance institutional readiness in the realm of OSH. The study delves deep into the anticipated trajectories of OSH research and protocols, offering valuable insights into the future of OSH.
 Conclusion: In conclusion, the evolving nature of work necessitates a more adaptable approach to occupational safety and health. NIOSH's strategic foresight venture marks a significant step towards achieving this goal. By proactively preparing for future challenges and opportunities, organizations can ensure safer and more efficient work environments. This manuscript provides a foundation for enhancing institutional readiness and navigating the evolving landscape of OSH research and protocols.

Foresight in natural resource management: A case study in Australia

Accelerated impacts of climate change pose significant challenges for natural resource management (NRM), challenging traditional decision-making approaches. Foresight provides a range of suitable methods for informing NRM due to high uncertainty and complexity. Foresight processes are inherently political endeavours because they are used to allocate resources and engage in normative questions of what constitutes a desirable future. Existing empirical examples suggest that broader political and institutional settings may constrain foresight in NRM. However, to date, research has not explored the broader contexts that shape foresight processes. The paper draws on qualitative and quantitative data from an exploratory survey with 32 regional NRM organisations (NRMOs) across Australia. It develops an exploratory framework that situates foresight interventions within nested scales, to consider how broader socio-cultural, political and institutional contexts shape and constrain how NRMOs apply foresight and how its outcomes are taken up in decision-making. We have found that NRMOs are using a broad range of foresight methods with five categories of outcomes, including relationship building, knowledge generation and integration; capacity building; strategy development; and normative outcomes. We argue that increased attention to normative outcomes may support NRM to explicitly engage with the political dimensions of long-term planning. Despite this, the broader socio-cultural and environmental contexts create a challenging disjunct wherein foresight interventions face multiple constraints and tensions.