Foresight Approach Research Articles

Análise de variáveis estratégicas para o desenvolvimento da agropecuária da região do Pontal do Paranapanema

O objetivo do trabalho é identificar as atividades rurais com maior capacidade de geração de emprego e renda e as relações existentes entre o desenvolvimento científico e capacitação rural no Pontal do Paranapanema em horizonte temporal de 10 anos (2008-2018). Utilizou-se a abordagem Technological Foresight para a estruturação do levantamento prospectivo e métodos e técnicas de estatística multivariada na análise dos resultados. As informações foram levantadas em um painel estruturado com a participação de 50 especialistas da região. Os resultados demonstram que níveis de capacitação técnica, oferta de tecnologias e assistência técnica são variáveis que têm grande importância para geração de emprego e renda futura. Além disso, ações de transferência de tecnologia são prioritárias no curto prazo e as de P&D com capacitação técnica de produtores e trabalhadores rurais, no longo prazo. Destacaram-se, para a geração de empregos ao trabalhador rural, as atividades de produção relacionadas à agroindústria. Novas atividades como a heveicultura, eucalipto, caprinos, ovinos, integração lavoura-pecuária e plantas ornamentais foram consideradas importantes para a geração de renda.

Identifying future fields of standardisation: methodology and empirical experiences

The paper describes a methodology for standardisation foresight developed for the German Institute for Standardisation (DIN), to systematically identify innovative standardisation topics by involving the science and research community. Up to date, formal standardisation bodies have not undertaken systematic efforts to conduct these kinds of forecasting studies. This approach identifies future standardisation aspects in dynamic, innovative fields of technology by combining a computerised quantitative analysis of science and technology indicators (e.g., patent applications, scientific publications, etc.) and Delphi-based surveys. We first describe the function and economic effects of standards in the innovative process. Then, we introduce an indicator module to identify future fields of standardisation and combine this qualitative analysis with an online Delphi survey. To illustrate the general methodological approach, we exemplarily display major results on nanotechnology. We conclude by assessing the application of our standard foresight approach and its extensibility towards computer-aided information retrieval.

Cadeia produtiva de energia de biomassa na região do Planalto Sul de Santa Catarina: uma abordagem prospectiva

Objetivou-se, neste estudo, identificar e prospectar o comportamento futuro dos fatores críticos de desempenho da cadeia produtiva de energia a partir de biomassa de origem florestal, bem como as demandas de capacitação e de pesquisas. O estudo teve como área de abrangência os municípios da região de Lages, no Planalto Sul de Santa Catarina. Utilizou-se como metodologia a abordagem de prospecção foresight, desenvolvida através da projeção de especialistas com base no seu próprio conhecimento, mediante a aplicação de questionário Delphi, contemplando os elos da produção florestal e da indústria e a geração de energia. As principais conclusões foram: a) há disponibilidade de resíduos florestais para uso na geração de energia, sendo necessária a readequação do processo de colheita florestal; b) investimentos na qualificação de recursos humanos e em novas tecnologias nos processos industriais são requeridos para melhor aproveitar os recursos florestais; e c) tende a haver aumento do uso da biomassa de origem florestal para a produção de energia.

Tailoring Foresight to field specificities

The paper presents an approach at improving the impact of Foresight by systematically taking into account the characteristics of the targeted research and innovation (R&I) domains when designing a Foresight exercise. The paper addresses recent developments in Foresight theory and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives. The paper can be characterised as empirically based theory building. The theoretical framework is elaborated by applying it in two R&I fields: (i) GM plants and (ii) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. Hence, this research is expected to contribute improving the strategic processes of priority setting in techno-institutional arenas both on the national and international level. In particular it is suggested that the capability of Foresight to function as a systemic innovation policy instrument for enhancing innovation and learning capability could be improved substantially by tailoring the Foresight approach to the targeted innovation arena.

Technologies watch exercise: foresight approach enhanced with scientific publications and patents analysis

This paper presents a process that has been used by the authors to identify key technological threats and opportunities facing the UK aerospace industry. A group of experts, all of them members of the UK's National Advisory Committee for Aerospace Manufacturing (NACAM), selected six technology themes that were considered to be emerging/growing and would have an impact on aerospace manufacturing technologies. This study included benchmarking and foresight exercises. Based on the results of this study, a bibliometric approach has been used to examine the prioritisation of the selected technologies. The results indicate that most of the technologies ranked highly by the experts have proved to be emerging and of importance according publication and patents, with some exceptions. Overall, the consensus between the NACAM experts, patents and publications perspectives implies a high degree of confidence in the results.

How to solve a wicked problem? Furniture foresight case study

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to report on how foresight methods are being used to address a “wicked problem” for the global furniture industry: “What are we going to do in the furniture industry in high cost countries (HCC) to maintain our future competitiveness with respect to the competition coming from low cost countries?”Design/methodology/approachThis study explores one sectorial initiative, CEFFOR® (Furniture Foresight Centre, headquarters in Valencia, Spain), that attempts to mitigate the negative impact of globalisation on the competitiveness of the furniture industry in HCCs, by creating a vision of a preferable future through the use of a set of qualitative foresight tools (structural analysis, morphological analysis/field anomaly relaxation, and cross impact analysis) involving a worldwide expert panel.FindingsThis paper examines the set‐up phase of the CEFFOR initiative, and describes the main elements of the morphological space developed to profile possible future configurations of the global furniture industry. Future papers will report on further model development and the subsequent take‐up of this work.Practical implicationsThe approach used could be adapted to a variety of other industrial sectors. While this study examines a traditional industrial sector, there is no conceptual limitation on its use in other sectors, although such adaptation should clearly remain alert to the unique aspects of any industry.Originality/valueThe novelty of this initiative is the application of a normative foresight approach in a traditional industrial sector in order to generate a shared vision of a sustainable future, and to integrate this foresight approach with an existing business intelligence system.

Foresight and applied research for SMEs the case of a German Foundation

The paper describes the foresight approach performed for a German Foundation to identify the topics that are relevant for small- and medium-sized companies during the next 10?15 years to come. The process was clearly structured and was performed in a very short time (about ten months). It included two surveys (similar to the Delphi but with different 'questions'), clustering, interviews and workshops. The result of the process was a list and descriptions of topics for which a call for tender was formulated. Research institutions can react to this call and apply, but they are only financed if a company is also involved and spends some money on the research project. The first study was a test for the concept, the second study had more impact. Some recommendations are given for a better impact.

Rural Futures: Alternative Scenarios for French Rural Society to 2020

The foresight approach presented in this article is a contribution to a work programme set up by the French land planning agency (DATAR) on the theme‘Land planning for the France of 2020′. The future of rural space is a matter of concern because of the rapid economic polarization movement towards the metropolis and surroundings, observed over the last three decades. This movement threatens the viability of rural space. The foresight study is based on scenario building. Rural space is seen as a system that ensures various functions: residence, production, nature. Each function and the global context are considered as subsystems driven by a set of key variables. Combining the various modalities of any subsystem variables allows us to build partial scenarios. In turn, these partial scenarios are combined to design four global scenarios describing the possible futures of the French rural space:‘a generalized residential countryside', characterized by a marked increase in urban spread; 'sustainable towns and large farms', where rural areas are organized according to the interest of farmers;‘towards the nature countryside', a breaking scenario where the priority is to meet environmental challenges; and‘active and competitive rural areas', emphasizing the role of local productive systems. Policy makers have many choices and can shape the countryside's picture in the next decade.

The Expert Delphi: Methodology and Application in 'Technology Foresight' (Das ExpertInnen-Delphi: methodische Grundlagen und Anwendungsfeld 'Technology Foresight')

The Delphi method is basically a structured group process through which experts assess issues on which knowledge is uncertain and imperfect by nature. Delphi procedures are applied among others in the worldwide expanding field of Technology Foresight. The paper explains basic elements of the method and illustrates its use within the Austrian Technology Delphi. The innovative character of this application case is constituted by the following key features: a Foresight approach tailored to country-specific needs (selective, demand-, problem- and implementation-oriented); modification of the classical Delphi towards a 'Decision Delphi'; broader definition of relevant experts; and use of the 'Total Design Method' in the postal survey. The contribution elaborates on the translation of these design elements as well as on effects on response rates and also looks at wider impacts of the Delphi process.

A foresight framework for understanding the future of mobile commerce

The advent of the 3G world of mobile commerce has suffered from the wait‐and‐see mode over the last years. Existing barriers pose a challenge to all actors in the mobile commerce industry (MCI). Learning from the future and discovering a route to a desired future are keys to successful mobile commerce business. In this paper we argue that it is very important that all actors in the MCI use an industry foresight approach in order to discover a successful route to future markets. We present a framework for creating industry foresights and for understanding the future of mobile commerce. We focus on the mobile commerce industry as a whole and introduce two broad variables; (1) adoption and diffusion of mobile commerce products and services; and (2) the macro‐economic development trend. Based on these variables we build four foresight scenarios: Rapid‐Up, Rapid‐Down, Slow‐Down and Slow‐Up. On the basis of these four different scenarios we suggest some features of promising mobile commerce products and services. We are using information‐gathering agents in order to collect information for our analysis. The foresight framework will help all actors understand the future for m‐commerce.

The Austrian foresight programme: organisation and expert profile

Austria's first systematic Foresight programme, run between 1996 and 1998, is examined as an example of a Foresight approach in a small country. Practice of foresight is rather diverse among small countries, but approaches tend to be more selective in scope, tailored to more specific goals, and putting greater emphasis on demand aspects than in bigger countries. "Delphi Austria", built on a series of preparatory studies, expert panels, and two parallel Delphi exercises, reflects these characteristics including a number of methodologically innovative elements such as the combination of a Technology Foresight with a Society and Culture Foresight. The objectives and approach of this novel element in Technology Foresight is described and exemplary results are presented. Another innovative element which had been developed in the latest German Delphi study, a so-called mega-trends-section in Technology Foresight, is presented and used to examine the general attitudinal profile of the expert base. A summary and a view on the diffusion and implementation of the outcomes of "Delphi Austria" conclude the article.

Innopac millennium: Preparing libraries for the 21st century: A perspective and commitment

While most automation suppliers are willing to follow the technology trend and build products in order to stay current with market demand, the truly innovative and entrepreneurial company is setting expectations and providing forward‐thinking solutions for its customers. Blindly shifting all development resources into a client/server solution without fully understanding the longevity and future implications of the technology will ultimately lead to accelerated obsolescence, a short‐term customer base, and, finally, failure to forge long‐term partnerships with customers. Having almost 20 years of experience providing long‐term solutions and strong partnerships with its customers, the author believes that Innovative Interfaces has been able to look beyond the current technology and anticipate the needs of the future. A current example of the foresight and evolutionary approach to the introduction of new technology is demonstrated through Innovative's client/server architecture. To ensure that every INNOPAC customer has a system that can continue to grow and remain current into the next century, Innovative has introduced INNOPAC Millennium and is redefining client/server expectations.