Foresight Approach Research Articles

Towards a customized foresight model on “disaster risk management” in developing countries

PurposeThe human efforts to be prepared better for the future challenges of natural disasters go back ages. Natural disasters occur when a natural event, such as an earthquake, triggers the social vulnerability. These natural disasters kill thousands of people worldwide annually and cause economic losses in millions of dollars. Moreover, the global cost of natural disasters has increased substantially, and mega-disasters occur when the need for recovery truly becomes national or international. There are several trends in nature and society, which suggest that this pattern may continue, with mega-disasters occurring more frequently in the future. In the past 100 years, the number of disasters and the number of people affected by these disasters have exponentially up surged. Thus, there is no other way to improve preparedness in a meaningful or diverse future-oriented manner.Design/methodology/approachThis paper focuses on how to design and customize a conceptual foresight model in “disaster risk management” in Iran, and offers an executive model to help decision-makers in disaster management, through which an appropriate practical framework for the implementation of foresight has been developed.FindingThe model has presented a possible framework for implementing a foresight practice within the context of disaster management. This paper particularly addresses different elements of a customized model, developed through a substantial literature review and comparative study for defining the suitable model in the disaster management context. The final model is validated using two rounds of the Delphi method, with the participation of national disaster management experts, practitioners and scientists.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough the whole model could be used all around the world, the main source of data validating the proposed model is limited to the expert’s opinions in a developing country (I. R. Iran.) and the geographical conditions of Iran are considered as a core of attention in response to natural disasters. Based on the indicators for choosing Delphi participants and experts, only 43 qualified experts are selected to validate the model. The main focus of this research is on natural disasters issues.Practical implicationsThis study showed that while there has been a scattered global effort to recognize the increasing uncertainties in diverse disciplines, very little work in academic foresight has been undertaken to identify how it could be implemented. In particular, a series of factors in foresight processes is identified based on the comparative study and some additional elements are added to precisely identify the disaster management context and the most suitable model for national foresight implementation in disaster management.Originality/valueThe main value of this research paper is to clarify the exact relationship between the two interdisciplinary fields; the relationship between the key concepts of “futures studies” and “disaster management” has been thoroughly established. Also, a specific conceptual model for enriching the “pre-foresight” stage and selecting a proper “foresight approach” in “disaster management” is provided. This model has been validated through two rounds of the Delphi method. Finally, a cumulative framework of foresight patterns that includes the new model is presented to be applied in areas especially related to “natural disaster management”.

Using Foresight to Gain a Local Perspective on the Future of Ecosystem Services in a Mountain Protected Area in Peru

Ecosystem services in the mountainous Salinas and Aguada Blanca National Reserve in Peru are under pressure, and perspectives on possible solutions depend on the different stakeholders' understanding of these services and their interests in them. We describe the application of the foresight approach to integrate various stakeholders' perspectives on the future of ecosystem services in the reserve. Ultimately, the purpose of this approach is to achieve an inclusive and viable plan for conservation and management of existing resources. The participatory analysis provided local people's perceptions of bofedal (wetland) and tolar (shrubland) ecosystem services, as well as their assessment of likely scenarios for the future. We identified 2 important factors in the hypotheses the local people provided: extreme events such as water scarcity and drought, and participation of the private sector in water distribution. Participants estimated that water storage and fuel for cooking were likely to have the strongest effects on current and future ecosystem services. Based on this, we jointly developed hypotheses using a stepwise approach and used software to calculate probabilities in a systematic way and produce a series of scenarios. The likelihood of these scenarios was also assessed by groups of stakeholders, yielding 5 scenarios for consideration in designing management plans. Future scenarios are highly dependent on proper management of the bofedal. We conclude that foresight helps to involve local people better in the process of developing viable strategies for the future of the reserve and for the conservation of the natural resources that it harbors.

Collaborative open foresight - A new approach for inspiring discontinuous and sustainability-oriented innovations

Disruptive changes (e.g. new technologies, services, and business models) present a variety of opportunities and risks for companies. They can contribute significantly not only to economic success but also to greater sustainability. Nevertheless, it is not a trivial task for established companies to recognize the potential of disruptive changes and to implement innovations in time. In this context, foresight and openness are proposed as promising approaches. This paper investigates the collaborative open foresight approach for inspiring discontinuous and sustainability-oriented innovations. The results of a longitudinal case study involving two companies show that the participants especially value that collaborative open foresight (1) fosters out-of-the-box thinking (2) supports breaking away from path dependency, and (3) increases the potential of innovations. Most importantly, the joint discussion and analysis of future developments (4) help to generate new insights regarding the opportunities and risks of the disruptive changes identified as well as their potential for discontinuous and sustainability-oriented innovations. It was particularly noteworthy that both companies recognized a significant value-added of collaborative open foresight compared to their previous foresight projects, so far conducted individually, but only one of the two companies could transfer the project's outcome to innovation projects.

Research on The Application of Foresight in The Development of Strategies and Policies for Management of Natural Resources and Environment in Vietnam

Vietnam is facing serious environmental and resource issues that directly affect the community. Therefore, in the current context, management must have immediate and long-term orientations in the formulation of strategies and policies, so that, we need to do well the forecasting work. In contrast to the closed approach of traditional forecasting approach, the foresight approach is seen as a way of communicating, exchanging and negotiating among different parts of society, thereby discovering scientific, economic, cultural and social value contributes to the general society in the future, while integrating in the process of forecasting issues to be discussed, evaluated, analyzed and proposed. The Vietnamese policy has not now achieved the desired effect. Thus, foresight can be considered as a new approach to support forecasting in the development of the sector strategy for natural resources and environment.
 The paper focuses on some of the world's foresight approaches and attempts to answer two questions: (i) How does this approach be used in the development of the strategy? (ii) Applicability in forecasting strategies and policy formulation in Vietnam. Answers to these two questions will provide recommendations so that be able to apply this approach for the development of the strategy and policy on natural resources and the environment in Vietnam.

A N, P, C, and water flows metabolism study in a peri-urban territory in France: The case-study of the Saclay plateau

Facing environmental issues, such as excess of nitrogen in the biosphere, water eutrophication, carbon emission in the atmosphere or hydrological impacts, peri-urban areas are not receiving as much attention as urban areas. In this research, we focus on a French peri-urban area in the Parisian region, the Saclay plateau. Following the territorial ecology approach, we consider this territory as a system organizing agricultural, food and waste flows, and we have analyzed the metabolism of this territory through its N, C, P and water flows. The results show first that the metabolism of the Saclay plateau is largely open, i.e. the main flows are input and output flows, and internal flows are small or nonexistent. This is particularly the case for nitrogen and phosphorus flows. The same findings hold for carbon flows although primary production and respiration play the major role in the carbon metabolism. Besides the uncertainty of the available data, water flows also reveal a clear uncoupling between compartments of the system. The analysis of these material flow budgets reveals the high potential for reconnections of the different flows, mainly due to the presence of large areas of agricultural land and a large population. Implementation of biowaste recovery, recovery of human excreta at source, as well as rain recovery systems, could help to realize this potential provided that environmental and sanitary risks can be effectively managed. Developing a foresight approach based on scenarios of territorial metabolism can assist in the building process of a territorial project in periurban areas.

Urban Growth Dynamics and Modelling Using Remote Sensing Data and Multivariate Statistical Techniques

In this article, sprawl area of impervious surfaces and their spatial and temporal variability have been studied for Pune city over a period of 19 years, i.e. 1992–2011. Statistical techniques and image classification approach have been adopted to quantify the urban sprawl and its spatial and temporal characteristics. For this purpose, satellite images were obtained from various sensors, viz. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus. To establish the relationship between urban sprawl and its causative factors, multivariate statistical technique has been used. The determinants of causal factors of urban sprawl such as population, α-population density, β-population density, workforce engaged in secondary and tertiary sectors, road density, and gender gap in literacy collectively explain the 93.09% variation in urban growth. The result also depicts that incessant growth in the built-up area in Pune city has surpassed the rate of population growth. From 1992 to 2011, population in the region grew by 75.40% while the amount of built-up land grew by 227.3%, i.e. more than three times the rate of population growth. To understand the future urban growth of Pune city, a foresight approach is being developed that allows long-term projections. This depicts that by the year 2051, the built-up area in the municipal limits would rise to 212.27 sq. km, which may be nearly 50.0% more than that in 2011 (141.50 sq. km). The vegetative areas, open spaces and areas around the highways are expected to become major targets for urban sprawl due to further increase in the pressure on land.

The organization activity: A foresight approach of theoretical knowledge evolution in management science

This paper aims to look at the evolution of knowledge in management science, in its dynamic and its relation with the notions of activity and resource, as well as the impact of the general model (input data, processing, output data) used by information processing theories. In this logic, we try to show how the activity approach offers new perspectives, both in terms of the main orientations in resource-based theory (“competence-based management”, “knowledge based view”, “dynamic capabilities”) than on epistemological and foresight plans.

Innovation system foresight and systemic innovation for the overseas countries and territories

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe through innovation system foresight and systemic innovation approach to address key systemic issues of European Union (EU) Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs) concerning the sustainable development and economic resilience: the authors highlight the need for a systemic approach to innovation policy for the sustainable islands’ growth.Design/methodology/approachThis research focuses on a multiple case study of selected OCTs, members of the Association of the OCTs. Specifically, this paper illustrates the foresight approach implemented in six OCTs in the context of the Territorial Strategies for Innovation project funded by the 10th European Development Fund.FindingsThe focus is on innovation system foresight and systemic innovation: the authors argue that key innovation elements of the individual OCTs can be used as crucial components of an emerging innovation system while this specific type of foresight can assist the governments of respective OCTs in the selection and design of specific instruments in relation to the formulation of their innovation strategies and policies.Originality/valueThis paper is based on work undertaken by the Territorial Strategies for Innovation project team during a three-year period dedicated to supporting the governments of OCTs both in defining and in implementing their innovation strategies. Its main contribution is to develop the concept of innovation system foresight and systemic innovation for the OCTs. The work presented here is considered to be of value by highlighting specific innovation elements for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth in OCTs.

A proposal of a new foresight platform considering of sustainable development goals

The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) has conducted foresight activities for decades. In recent years, the speed of social change has increased and the complexity in politics and economics has also increased. As such, it has become difficult to look forward appropriate in a timely manner using only conventional methods, and thus the development of various methods is encouraged. Conversely, the formation of a sustainable society faces many difficulties on the international front and many goals for global issues have been set. However, efforts and results for sustainable development are not necessarily desirable. In this study, we examined whether we could effectively solve social problems by combining the development of a foresight approach with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). First, we reviewed the concepts of sustainable development. Next, we examined the target of SDGs appropriately to convert our foresight activities. Finally, we propose a future public platform (FPP) for scenario planning in foresight. As a result, we found the importance of considering the SDGs in foresight. We also examined the concept of sustainable development, considering how to integrate the SDGs into foresight, and propose the FPP with SDGs. This FPP effectively involves five SDG targets and appears to be highly executable. Though the system of FPP has a certain difficulty, we could exchange information among experts who are studying SDGs and foresight. Thus, as a case study of connections between foresight and SDGs, it would be helpful for other countries.

Restructuring performance prediction with a rebalanced and clustered support vector machine

AbstractThis paper discusses whether asset restructuring can improve firm performance over decades. Variation in the stock price or the financial ratio is used as the dependent variable of either short‐ or long‐term effectiveness to evaluate the variance both before and after asset restructuring. The result is varied. It is necessary to develop a foresight approach for the mixed situation. This work pioneers to forecast effectiveness of asset restructuring with a rebalanced and clustered support vector machine (RCS). The profitability variation 1 year before and after asset restructuring is used as the dependent variable. The current financial indicators of the year of asset restructuring are used as independent variables. Specially treated listed companies are used as research samples, as they frequently adopt asset restructuring. In modeling, the skew distribution of samples achieving and failing to achieve performance improvement with asset restructuring is handled with rebalancing. The similar experienced knowledge of asset restructuring to the current asset restructuring is filtered out with clustering. With the help from rebalancing and clustering, a support vector machine is constructed for prediction, together with other forecasting models of multivariate discriminant analysis, logistic regression, probit regression, and case‐based reasoning. These models' standalone modes are used as benchmarks. The empirical results demonstrate the applicability of the RCS for forecasting effectiveness of asset restructuring.

The Foresight Approach to Researching Innovative Activity in High-tech Businesses

The current stage of Russia’s development has compelled its authorities, business community and researchers alike to show interest in Foresight research for solving complex problems. These problems include attempts to evaluate innovation that could have a strong impact on the country’s economy in the short and long term and on a macro-, meso- and micro level. This study analyses the use of foresight methods in public administration and the most dynamically developing sector of the economy, technology. It also proposes a foresight approach to researching innovation.

Envisioning future innovative experimental ecosystems through the foresight approach. Case: Design Factory

Change makers are visionaries who wish to bring change to their respective fields. As technological change is accelerating, it is relevant to consider, how the way and what we teach can evolve with the future to remain meaningful and pioneering. Design Factory at Aalto University, as an innovative experimental ecosystem with interdisciplinary principles and new teaching methodologies has been successful in and at the forefront in educating the students to be change-makers. The paper presents a case study of holistically anticipating plausible futures for innovative experimental ecosystems utilizing a foresight approach. We analyze how the ways of working, spaces, and teaching methods of one such ecosystem, Design Factory at Aalto University in Finland, could support students learning in the year 20 × 6 {x = 2, 3}. We present the process of drawing virtual lines that connect trends, future drivers, visions, and scenarios using a contemporary approach that fuses qualitative and quantitative methods. The results from the study are six future scenarios for the Design Factory, that have implications for innovation ecosystems in general. These results are expected to further foster or trigger new research and development experiments, directions for building radical environments, new teaching methods and ways of working.

How do companies envisage the future? Functional foresight approaches

Abstract The main aim of the paper is to present the synthesis of the results of methodological analysis conducted on examples of foresight projects executed in chosen companies representing four companies type: small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), nonprofit- organization, international corporations and consulting companies as well as to posit functional approach for the implementation of foresight research within organizations. The empirical part of the study is based on the qualitative approach. A multiple case study methodology is employed. The research objects are sixteen companies experienced in foresight research. The first part of the paper gives an overview of definitions of corporate foresight and the analysis of background that have influence on the conducting of foresight in large multinational companies on one side and SMEs on the other side. In the field of the theory of foresight research, the study demonstrates that there are different motivations for foresight introduction as well as different organizational structure of teams conducting the activities and the approaches that they use. In the practical perspective, the study and a detailed functional foresight approach proposed by authors could be valuable for SMEs who consider implementing foresight research into their strategic planning processes.

Reflections on disruptive energy innovation in urban retrofitting: Methodology, practice and policy

Retrofitting cities provides major challenges for decision-makers and planners seeking to provide strategic management of urban transitions. Recognising the implications of disruptive innovations for the urban energy sector is key to understanding how transition management can be operationalised. This also requires an integrated urban foresight approach to engage with city stakeholders in exploring the construction of socio-technical urban retrofit processes across a variety of scales and domains

A dynamic and adaptive scenario approach for formulating science & technology policy

PurposeDynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. The purpose of this paper is to provide a dynamic and adaptive Foresight approach as required by the fast-changing global landscape.Design/methodology/approachThe scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on science and technology (S&T) development in Russia.FindingsThe flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility.Practical implicationsThe scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for Foresight exercises at all levels of governance, including national, international, regional and corporate.Originality/valueA novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of S&T policy with an illustrative case study.

Narrative foresight in technical organizations: epistemological and methodological contributions from a practice of scenario method in Argentina

The following paper explores the experience of narrative Foresight applied to the use of the scenario method in Argentina in the light of the contributions of critical Future Studies concerning the narrative dimension in the last years. This research is specifically focused on analyzing applications of the scenario method in an institute of technology development in Argentina (“Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria”) using the causal layered analysis as a method of examination and adopting the narrative Foresight approach. We analyze how the narrative approach permeates the scenario method in the process of development, thus increasing the potential usefulness and impact of the method. Moreover, we also reflect on the utility of this approach in order to increase the strategic vision of complex organizations which are shaped, to a great extent, by linear schemes of thought where the empiric dimension of reality operates with a value of truth.

Making spatial development scenario for south of Bushehr province, Iran, based on strategic foresight

In recent years, the science of foresight has been entered into planning activities by urban and regional planners and this science has impacted on planning activities. This study discusses spatial development in the south of Bushehr province using the foresight approach. The general aim of this research is to compile scenarios for the development of the mentioned study area which comprises the southern part of Bushehr province including four counties of Dayyer, Jam, Kangan and Asaluyeh. The main reason for selecting this region is their direct impressibility by major changes in the country’s oil and gas industry. This research has extremely made use of the Delphi and cross-impact analysis methods to develop foresight scenarios. Using the Delphi method, 30 initial factors were identified in the economic, political-security, linkages, science and technology, manufacturing, natural, social, infrastructural and residential issues and then the cross-impact matrix was used to investigate the impact of factors on each other. In the next step, the ranking of direct and indirect factors was determined by Micmac software and on this basis, the final refining in the selection of drivers was done. In the final stage, axes of future scenarios were presented and then the future scenarios were drawn. Results of this research indicate that two main drivers namely Iran’s international relations and energy resources are the main axes of scenarios. These two drivers have more uncertainty and higher importance than other factors and the results in four scenarios showing the possibility of each situation’s occurrence.

Strategic Early Warning System for the French milk market: A graph theoretical approach to foresee volatility

This paper presents a new approach for developing a Strategic Early Warning System aiming to better detect and interpret weak signals. We chose the milk market as a case study, in line with the recent call from the EU Commission for governance tools which help to better address such highly volatile markets. Furthermore, on the first of April 2015, the new Common Agricultural Policy ended quotas for milk, which led to a milk crisis in the EU. Thus, we collaborated with milk experts to get their inputs for a new model to analyse the competitive environment. Consequently, we constructed graphs to represent the major factors that affect the milk industry and the relationships between them. We obtained several network measures for this social network, such as centrality and density. Some factors appear to have the largest major influence on all the other graph elements, while others strongly interact in cliques. Any detected changes in any of these factors will automatically impact the others. Therefore, scanning ones competitive environment can allow an organisation to get an early warning to help it avoid an issue (as much as possible) and/or seize an opportunity before its competitors. We conclude that Strategic Early Warning Systems as a corporate foresight approach utilising graph theory can strengthen the governance of markets.

On 'green governance'

The 'greening' of a host of concepts and the like brings into focus the conceptual and practical implications of this rhetoric. It is based upon a consideration of environmental issues related to economic and social imperatives, largely epitomised by the concept of sustainable development, which influences the discourses and political projects outlined at the various Earth Summits, for example. 'Green governance', as part of the multifaceted scope of sustainable development, is based on a foresight, strategic and participatory approach to the sustainable management of natural resources, particularly in developing countries. It also suggests a bottom-up approach from the local to the global. The text breaks down as follows: we first note that the essence of governance is to provide a mode of coordination and proceed to analyse what it is. Next we examine the concept of 'green governance' and present it as a method of government, and finally conclude with the normative character of the concept.

Present and Future of the Production: Integrating Lean Management into Corporate Foresight

The present paper describes a combined approach to corporate Foresight and lean management. When companies implement lean management, they are often faced with a broad range of barriers such as top-management resistance, slow response to market change, etc. Due to the shift to new technological paradigm (Industry 4.0) planning horizon gradually changes. To overcome the new challenges at the company level, we propose to use the combined approach foresight and lean management. It will allow companies to set goals not only for a period of 10-15 years, but also to bring all the details to the operational level, therefore every employee will aware of in which direction the company is moving. Based on a review of theoretical and methodological approaches and the investigation of the implementation experience of lean management and Foresight approach taking into account conditions of trends in Industry 4.0, human and time resources. The present paper intends to provide the conceptual basic for testing the developed model later.