Foreign Trade Research Articles

Comparative Analysis of Employment and Foreign Trade Data of Russia and Turkey by Year

This research aimed to compare the relationships between unemployment rates and foreign trade data of Türkiye and Russia. In the research, unemployment and foreign trade data from the Country Reports provided by the World Bank for Turkey and Russia were used for the years 2002-2023. Descriptive scanning and relational scanning analyses of the data were performed. The unemployment rate in Turkey had a 10.91±1.30 mean with a 9.21-14.03 range. In Russia, the unemployment rate mean was 5.99±1.41 with a 3.08-8.30 range. The export rate in Russia was significantly higher than Türkiye (p<0.05). Unemployment and import mean values were significantly higher in Türkiye (p<0.05). The correlation between unemployment and foreign trade was insignificant in Türkiye (p>0.05). The correlation between unemployment with export (r=0.554; p<0.01) and import (r=0.609; p<0.01) was significant for Russia. Although foreign trade is not directly associated with employment due to its relationship with finance and other sectors, foreign trade positively affects unemployment in Russia. In Turkey, unemployment is not significantly related to foreign trade.

Deconstruction of green product innovation drivers for regional export-oriented industrial enterprises in China: the product space perspective

Achieving green economic growth requires enterprises to develop and promote green products that balance environmental protection, intensive resource utilization, and sustainable development. However, under the externality assumption, the green market is often faced with the challenge of insufficient supply. Based on 2004–2018 panel data covering regional industrial enterprises in 30 provinces in China, this study empirically tests the composite driving mechanism of the effect of an increase in the regional green production capacity, organizational factors, and environmental policies on the green product innovation (GPI) of regional export-oriented industrial enterprises (REIEs). This study finds that the increase in regional green production capacity directly drives an improvement in REIEs’ GPI level, that the regional green technology level and degree of human capital accumulation are indirect driving channels between capacity increases and product innovation, and that environmental regulations and green credit have a positive moderating effect on the influence of increasing green production capacity on GPI. Further threshold regression analysis reveals that increasing green production capacity, foreign direct investment, digitization, and trade openness have an inverted U-shaped promoting effect on GPI and that the proportion of local government expenditure shows a diminishing marginal utility effect on GPI.

Effect of financial deepening and institutional factors on industrial value added: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This research evaluates the effect of financial deepening and institutional factors on industrial value. Africa, rich in natural resources, stands poised for resource-based industrialization, yet many nations continue to export raw materials with minimal processing. According to World Bank data, Sub-Saharan African countries have seen a decrease in industrial value added over the years. This decline is partly due to insufficient integration between agriculture and manufacturing. The primary factors in converting raw materials into finished products are labor and capital. While Africa is abundant in intellectual capital, it faces challenges with financial capital. Despite the critical role of financial development in enhancing industrial sectors, institutional factors also play a significant role. This study, which involved 38 Sub-Saharan African nations, analyzes the impact of financial development and institutional factors on industrial value added using multiple linear regression. The findings reveal that both financial development and institutional quality positively influence industrial value added, particularly highlighting the importance of bank capital adequacy, ATM availability, regulatory quality, corruption control, and governance. On the other hand, exchange rates, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and inflation all have a negative impact on industrial value added.

Euroization of the Economy and the Negative Impact of the Strengthening of the Local Currency on Exports and Other Economic Indicators in Albania

The Albanian economy is a small and open economy. As such, it is quickly influenced by the turbulence of the global, European, and regional economies. Economic theory emphasizes the link between the exchange rate, exports, the consumer price index, and the balance of foreign trade. The purpose of this article is to study the impact of the exchange rate, primarily at the export level, while also considering other economic factors within the framework of the overvaluation of the Albanian currency (ALL) against the currencies of partner countries, mainly the Euro. The overvaluation of the Albanian currency has led to discouraging exports and increasing imports, influencing the rise in the Consumer Price Index, meaning higher consumer prices. This is due to the fact that the Albanian economy is mainly dependent on imports. The empirical and econometric models used, along with the factors included in this study according to the hypotheses raised, are related to assessing the mutual relationships of the exchange rate with other economic factors for the time period 2018-2023.The results imply and depict the integrated relationship between the exchange rate and exports and other economic factors, as well as supporting the fact that the real exchange rate (RER) has deviated from its equilibrium level. The conclusions in this study confirm that an overvalued domestic currency has increased costs for operations conducted in the local currency ALL, reducing income for operations conducted in Euro and other currencies. This overvaluation of the domestic currency has resulted in losses for exporting companies, impacting the trade balance. Based on the findings in this study, it is crucial for financial institutions and policymakers to be consistent in monitoring the exchange rate, especially EUR/ALL, to improve the long-term relationships between the exchange rate, exports, and other economic factors.

How to Transform Congenital Disadvantage into New Momentum for Economic Development: Based on the Study of Dutch Foreign Trade

The Netherlands is an ancient trading country, and due to geographical constraints, it has been actively seeking business opportunities and resources. This paper examines how the Netherlands transformed its natural disadvantages into new drivers of economic development since the fifteenth century. The purpose of this paper is to better understand the dynamics and paths of economic development in the Netherlands. This paper takes the perspective of Dutch foreign trade, combines literature analysis and case study methods, and adopts the method of diachronic research. The results of the study show that the Netherlands has transformed its geographical limitations into a new driving force for economic development in the development of maritime power, commerce, and foreign investment. The innovation of this paper lies in the unique perspective. Starting from the economic development process of the Netherlands since the 15th century, it presents readers with a comprehensive and in-depth economic development process of the Netherlands.

Оптимизация деятельности таможенных органов Дальневосточного региона в условиях наращивания российско-китайского товарооборота

The article examines the current conditions of customs authorities in the Far Eastern region in the context of increasing foreign trade between Russia and China. It illustrates the results of the activities of the region’s customs authorities and highlights the main challenges. An assessment of state policy in the development of customs administration at the Russian-Chinese customs border is provided, existing problems are identified, and solutions are proposed.

Assessing the internationalization dynamics of emerging markets: a comprehensive analysis utilizing SWARA-WASPAS techniques

Purpose This paper aims to evaluate the internationalization of countries represented in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The evaluation considers high-technology product imports, foreign direct investments, research and development expenditures, patent and industrial design applications, exports and gross domestic product (GDP) data, representing production. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) method to assess and rank the criteria for evaluating emerging markets. Four academics who are authorities in the field of foreign trade were consulted to weigh the criteria. The Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) method, considered one of the most reliable and robust MCDM techniques, was then used to evaluate and rank the countries. Findings The findings obtained during the research process reveal the internationalization dynamics of these countries based on the indicators they possess. As a result, it is observed which countries achieve higher performance in the internationalization process based on relevant criteria. Originality/value This study is theoretically unique and valuable as it simultaneously offers the potential for development to macro-level international trade theories, such as the technologic deficit hypothesis, and meso-level internationalization theories, such as the Uppsala model. Additionally, integrated multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, which are not frequently used in cross-country studies, have been used, and the performance of emerging markets has been ranked. The findings obtained from this application distinguish the research from the existing literature by transforming it into a performance ranking rather than focusing on the antecedents or consequences of internationalization and their interactions.

From ‘Practical Application of Knowledge’ to ‘Academic Self-Awareness’: A Historical Examination of Knowledge Production in Chinese Middle East Studies

The knowledge production in Chinese Middle East studies boasts a long history. The article traces the evolution of Chinese scholarship on Middle East studies from ancient times to the present. Initially driven by the practical needs for imperial expansion and foreign trade, this scholarship focused on the academic tradition of the ‘practical application of knowledge.’ Over time, it evolved into a phase of academic self-awareness, characterized by a more systematic and independent approach to Middle East studies. This shift reflects broader changes in China’s foreign relations and academic priorities, with contemporary scholars emphasizing the development of an autonomous knowledge production system through various models, such as major-theme research, discipline-driven research, and integrated research. The article suggests that future research should adopt an ‘issue-driven’ model to enhance further the depth and autonomy of Chinese Middle East studies.

Economic development and foreign trade: a сomparative analysis of the United States and China

The article presents a comparative analysis of socio-economic and foreign trade relationships between the United States and the People's Republic of China, two leading countries of the world economy, which exert maximum influence on global processes in economics and politicsas well as in world trade, investment activities and scientific and technical sphere. Today, the rivalry between the two powers has also intensified in the monetary and financial aspect due to the growing importance and share of the yuan in international settlements and government reserves of many countries. This situation continues to worsen smoothly, often having a negative impact on other countries, including the Russian Federation. The purpose of the article is to explore the current state of the demographic situation, the dynamics of GDP and trade turnover of the two countries, to characterize the current situation and identify trends in its development in the medium term, which will make it possible to form the positions and policies of other subjects of the world economy to ensure their stability and balance their actions. The article concludes that both countries are currently experiencing a period of socio-economic and foreign trade turbulence, and its range has not yet shown a tendency to decrease. It is often the United States that acts as the source of this turbulence, trying to overcome the negative processes in its own economy. Therefore, it is important for third countries, for example, Russia, to take consistent measures to ensure national, including foreign economic, security. The methodological basis of the research is statistical, comparative, graphical analysis, the study of reports and archives, calculations based on data from open international statistical databases and official websites of international economic organizations, the main purpose of which is to study the economic indicators of the United States and the People's Republic of China. The study period covers 2012–2023.

Prospects for the economy and foreign trade of Ethiopia: fore cast estimates based on mathematical modeling

The article presents a forecast assessment of the development of the national economy and foreign trade of Ethiopia until 2030, calculated by the authors on the basis of a mathematical and systematic analysis of macroeconomic processes and methods of modeling these processes usingthe Box-Jenkins model (ARIMA). Estimation method: the exact maximum likelihood method. The topic seems relevant due to Ethiopia's accession to the BRICS alliance from 2024. Therefore, it is important to predict possible trends in Ethiopia's economic and foreign trade development, their significance for the country itself, as well as their impact on the economic dynamics of other BRICS countries and the association as a whole. The study is updated taking into account the continued increase in global volatility and the emergence of new threats, including in Africa. The subject is trends in the economic development of Ethiopia as a member of the BRICS. The purpose of the article is to develop a scientifically based forecast of the development of the economy and foreign trade of Ethiopia in the medium term. The article identifies potential threats to the development of the Ethiopian economy. The statistical basis of the study was mainly data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The results of the study can be used to understand the trends of socio-economic and foreign trade development of the country, adjust this development, as well as expand and enrich the theoretical concepts of the world economy. The research and author's calculations are based solely on the current circumstances and current realities, without taking into account any fundamental changes in the politics and economy of the country under study. The author's calculations and conclusions can be useful to economists, entrepreneurs, and researchers as a basis for their further practical and scientific activities.

Factors determining economic growth in Syria in 2014 – 2023 : macroeconomic analysis

The economy of Syria has been experiencing very strong and diverse pressure from Western countries on the national economy for a long period. Despite this, the country was able to survive and continues its development, although very unstable. In this regard, the issue of thefactors of the growth of the Syrian economy in the last decade, the problems and prospects for the development of the national economy and the foreign trade sector of the country, as well as the prospects for its cooperation with foreign partners, including at the regional level, remains relevant. The article shows that in the last decade, the Syrian economy has faced serious problems, including two new (external) factors – the global COVID-19 pandemic and the escalation of military tensions in the Middle East region, affecting both the territory (and the economy) of Syria. At the domestic socio-economic level, market volatility affects the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators (high instability of development, including in the field of per capita income, a significant degree of closure of the national economy – low indicators of the foreign trade quota with continued import dependence, a significant share of agriculture and low urbanization relative to other countries in the region), while high final consumption costs do not allow the country to ensure the necessary level of fixed capital accumulation for the development and diversification of the national economy. At the same time, Syria's economy remains one of the most diversified in the region, and the country does not face a high degree of food dependence like its regional neighbors. From this, the authors conclude that it is necessary and possible at this stage to intensify and escalate intraregional inter-Arab economic cooperation and trade as one of the tools to reduce existing risks.

Investigating The Validity of The Marshall-Lerner Principle and J-Curve Theory in Relation to Real Exchange Rates and Trade Imbalances: An Empirical Study of China's Economic Dynamics

According to traditional macroeconomic theory, meeting the Marshall-Lerner condition suggests that currency devaluation could positively impact the long-term trade balance. This implies that despite initial import cost increases, enhanced export competitiveness from a weaker currency eventually leads to trade balance improvements. However, short-term negative effects, known as the J-curve effect, may occur due to trade volume adjustments lagging currency devaluations. This study aims to assess the validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition in China's economy from 1995: Q1 to 2023: Q4 and evaluate the short-term J-curve effect's magnitude. Analyzing economic indicators and exchange rate fluctuations, the research confirms the validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition and supports the existence of the J-curve effect. These findings highlight the importance of nuanced currency policymaking for sustainable economic growth and stability, considering both short-term adjustments and long-term objectives. Key Words: Marshall-Lerner Condition, J Hypothesis, Foreign Trade.

Exploration and Research on the Development of Higher Vocational English Education in Guangxi

With the acceleration of economic development and globalization and the rapid development of China’s foreign economy, the position of English education in higher vocational education has become increasingly prominent. Particularly in the multi-ethnic and multi-cultural areas of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, higher vocational education undertakes the responsibility of talent export for the construction of the China-ASEAN foreign trade exchange platform. However, the current phenomena and problems existing in higher vocational English education in Guangxi need to be deeply discussed and solved. Therefore, this paper discusses the development ideas of English education mode in Guangxi higher vocational education and studies the feasibility suggestions, in order to provide a reference for the future development of higher vocational English education in Guangxi.

Development of russian-mongolian foreign trade relations in food industry

In the context of shifting trade emphasis to the East, Russia attaches great importance to the development of cooperation with the Asia-Pacific countries, where Mongolia is a key partner. The purpose of the article is to reveal global trade trends and identify key areas for the development of Russian-Mongolian foreign trade relations in the food industry. Having conducted a comprehensive analysis of the economic and political factors shaping bilateral trade, the article provides insights into the challenges and opportunities for expanding cooperation in the food sector. Global trend in the food market is that China a leader. China accounts for the largest share (35%) in Russia turnover also. Mongolian trade ties with Russia are becoming closer year by year. This was demonstrated by the official visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Mongolia in September 2024. We can observe that Mongolia closely cooperates with such a region of Russia as Buryatia. Through a detailed examination of trade patterns, regulatory frameworks, and market trends, the study uncovers areas of untapped potential and identifies barriers to optimal trade flow. Drawing on industry best practices and case studies from other global food trade partnerships, the paper offers a series of practical recommendations for stakeholders. These recommendations cover infrastructure development, promotion of cultural exchange, harmonization of legal and regulatory frameworks, absorption and use of technology to create a more robust and sustainable trade ecosystem.

Assessment of Prospects for Sustainable Cross‐Border Cooperation of the Russian Post‐Virgin Regions of the Urals and Siberia with the Republic of Kazakhstan

Aim. Comprehensive assessment of the stability of cross‐border cooperation between the Russian steppe regions of the Urals and Siberia and the Republic of Kazakhstan in the fields of foreign trade and migration. To achieve the goal, a model has been developed to assess the prospects for sustainable cross‐border interaction of the Russian steppe regions of the Urals and Siberia with the Republic of Kazakhstan.The research conducted using the methodology developed made it possible to identify the problems of cross‐border interaction of Russian steppe regions with the Republic of Kazakhstan. Against the background of a decrease in general mobility of the population of the Russian steppe regions, the share of those who left for the Republic of Kazakhstan among the total number of those who left abroad had a positive trend during the period analysed in the vast majority of steppe regions of the Russian Federation. In five of the eight regions considered, the interaction is characterized as "stable" and "steady", "unstable" interaction in the field of migration only in the Altai Territory.The Tyumen Region was the leader in terms of the share in the country's export‐import operations among the steppe regions of the Russian Federation for 2015–2021. In the period under review, foreign trade turnover had a stimulating effect on the economy of the Chelyabinsk region, the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Novosibirsk region. At the same time, the most active foreign trade activity with the Republic of Kazakhstan was observed in the Altai Territory and Omsk and Kurgan regions. Stable cross‐border cooperation in the field of foreign trade with the Republic of Kazakhstan is only in place in the Kurgan region.

The Impact of Trade Openness on the Industry Reality in Iraq for the Period (2004-2022)

Iraq is one of the prominent countries that used to have important industries and enjoyed consumer acceptance, competitiveness, and presence in regional and global markets. However, after 2003 and due to trade liberalization, there needed to be more in the structure of the Iraqi economy. This directly affected the reality of the Iraqi industrial sector, leading to the entry of goods and products from all over the world. With the increase in population and government expenditures, which relied on commodity imports to meet local needs, all aspects of industry in the country were eliminated. The importance of research lies in shedding light on the role of international trade (import and export) in global economies, highlighting the shortcomings in trade policy management, demonstrating the impact of trade openness on the industrial sector's contribution to economic development, and the need for realistic measures to rescue this vital sector from deterioration in Iraq. Moreover, the research problem is based on the direct negative impact of trade liberalization policy on the reality of the industrial sector in the country. Increased reliance on foreign sources to meet local economic needs is attributed to the production apparatus's deficiencies, backwardness, and stagnation, rendering it unable to meet total domestic demand. The research aims to shed light on the role of foreign trade in global economies and to clarify the shortcomings in trade policy management, as well as the extent of the impact of trade liberalization on the reality of the industrial sector in achieving economic development. The research found that the industrial sector in Iraq was negatively affected throughout the period (2004-2022) due to the compulsory trade liberalization policy, which led to the shutdown of factories and plants because of the low prices of imported goods. Paper type Research paper.

Public health emergencies and international trade in the context of global value chains: Evidence from COVID‐19 in China

AbstractIn recent years, there has been a notable increase in the frequency of public health emergencies (PHE), which pose a substantial threat to the global supply and demand equilibrium as well as the stability of the global value chains (GVC). The article takes the example of the COVID‐19 pandemic and utilises China's foreign trade monthly data spanning from 2018 to 2021 for an empirical analysis of how COVID‐19 affected China's import and export trade, as well as its participation in GVC collaborations. The findings are as follows: (1) The proliferation of COVID‐19 significantly and negatively impacted China's export trade, while its impact on China's import trade was insignificant. (2) The impact of the COVID‐19 on processing trade exports was more pronounced compared to general trade exports, highlighting the detrimental effect of the pandemic on GVC collaboration. (3) The adverse influence of the COVID‐19 on China's foreign trade and GVC cooperation primarily stemmed from its impact on international effective demand. (4) The pandemic exerted a more substantial negative effect on processing trade involving supplied materials with low production value added compared to processing trade involving imported materials with high value added. And it had a greater adverse impact on low‐tech products as opposed to high‐tech products, indicating that industries with higher value‐added and high‐tech products exhibited greater resilience in the face of trade disruptions by COVID‐19.

J-Curve For Indonesia’s Trade Balance with Non-Linier ARDL

The performance of Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (BOP), especially for the trade balance/current account, which recorded a surplus and adequate foreign exchange reserves, controlled political conditions, and attractive yields, can impact the exchange rate. This improvement in the exchange rate further encouraged the entry of foreign investors, which caused the Indonesian economy to continue to grow when the world experienced a financial crisis. This study analyzes asymmetric models to prove the Marshall Lerner Condition of Indonesia with trading partners. Using NARDL methods, this study uses monthly data from 2005 to 2021 from the International Federal Reserve (IFS), a data source for foreign trade activities. The result of this study is a J curve in Indonesia’s trade pattern with its trading partners, formed in the United States, Singapore, Vietnam, and Japan. For the nonlinear ARDL method, the J curve is formed in trading partners Netherlands, Germany, Korea, Singapore, United Kingdom, Vietnam, and Japan. The implementation of Indonesia’s exchange rate policy should be followed by a policy that can suppress the exchange rate against inflation because if this policy is not followed, it will not significantly impact Indonesia’s trade performance in the long run.

The role of transportation connectivity in Vietnam’s trade with ASEAN countries

This article focuses on studying how transportation connectivity affects Vietnam’s trade with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. By using a gravity model, the article applies fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) to analyze panel data on trade, GDP, tariffs, border effects, and indicators. The number represents Vietnam’s transport connectivity with ASEAN countries from 2004 to 2021. Research results show that transport connectivity hurts Vietnam’s trade with other countries. ASEAN. The article proposes solutions for the Government and Vietnamese export enterprises to promote intra-ASEAN trade in the direction of increasing the added value of Vietnam’s imported and exported goods within ASEAN countries and balancing between Developing intra-ASEAN and foreign trade.

Foreign Economic Activities of The Russian Federation: Contemporary Problems and Prospects

Modern conditions for the development of foreign economic activity of the Russian Federation are formed under the influence of many factors, including international sanctions, economic diversification, development of transport and digital infrastructure, as well as active international cooperation. In the context of global economic and political changes, the Russian Federation seeks to adapt and look for new opportunities to strengthen its position in the world market. The article identifies the features of the organization of foreign economic activity in the Russian Federation taking into account the sanctions pressure, in particular, reflects the features of the decline in foreign trade, limited access to international fi nance, difficulties in international settlements, change of trading partners, problems with technology imports, problems with logistics. The article analyzes the main problems faced by the Russian Federation in its foreign economic strategy. In the article, the author examines in detail the main problems faced by the Russian Federation in the formation of its foreign economic strategy, and within the framework of each problem, considers the prospects for its solution, taking into account the established development trends, such as: strengthening economic cooperation with Asian countries, in particular with China and India, as a strategic priority; the use of new technologies and innovations to increase the competitiveness of Russian goods in world markets; development of transport and logistics infrastructure to improve export opportunities. The article reflects the aspect of a comprehensive approach to solving current problems and implementing strategic tasks aimed at sustainable development of foreign economic activity of the Russian Federation in the long term.