Factors determining economic growth in Syria in 2014 – 2023 : macroeconomic analysis

Abstract

The economy of Syria has been experiencing very strong and diverse pressure from Western countries on the national economy for a long period. Despite this, the country was able to survive and continues its development, although very unstable. In this regard, the issue of thefactors of the growth of the Syrian economy in the last decade, the problems and prospects for the development of the national economy and the foreign trade sector of the country, as well as the prospects for its cooperation with foreign partners, including at the regional level, remains relevant. The article shows that in the last decade, the Syrian economy has faced serious problems, including two new (external) factors – the global COVID-19 pandemic and the escalation of military tensions in the Middle East region, affecting both the territory (and the economy) of Syria. At the domestic socio-economic level, market volatility affects the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators (high instability of development, including in the field of per capita income, a significant degree of closure of the national economy – low indicators of the foreign trade quota with continued import dependence, a significant share of agriculture and low urbanization relative to other countries in the region), while high final consumption costs do not allow the country to ensure the necessary level of fixed capital accumulation for the development and diversification of the national economy. At the same time, Syria's economy remains one of the most diversified in the region, and the country does not face a high degree of food dependence like its regional neighbors. From this, the authors conclude that it is necessary and possible at this stage to intensify and escalate intraregional inter-Arab economic cooperation and trade as one of the tools to reduce existing risks.