Foreign Reserves Research Articles

Foreign Reserve Management and U.S. Money Market Liquidity: A Cost of Exorbitant Privilege

Foreign Reserve Management and U.S. Money Market Liquidity: A Cost of Exorbitant Privilege

Determinants of International Reserves in Nigeria

Over the past decades, nations have accumulated international reserves to leverage foreign counterparts or protect themselves against external shocks resulting from integration. The factors identified by researchers as contributing to international reserve accumulation, however, have primarily been market factors. This study sets out to identify some distinct factors of the Nigerian economy. This is accomplished using annual data from 1970 to 2016. Several econometric methods, including the unit root test and Granger causality, were applied to test two hypotheses. The results showed substantial long-run correlations between the variables examined. Thus, the Error Correction Methodology (ECM) was used to investigate short-term and long-term relationships. Findings reveal that the accumulation of foreign reserves was significantly influenced in the long run only by aggregate exports EXPT and trade openness OPN since both variables were statistically significant at 5 percent. At the specified beak-point, there was an important structural change. Finally, Nigeria’s level of international reserves was significantly impacted by the quality of its institutions. Thus, the study recommends that policymakers maintain the current exchange rate regime in order to ensure world competitiveness. The research also suggested that the government take steps to improve and build strong institutions in order to promote transparency and accountability.

A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation

This paper proposes a theory of foreign reserves as macroprudential policy. We study an open economy model of financial crises, in which pecuniary externalities lead to overborrowing, and show that by accumulating international reserves, the government can achieve the constrained-efficient allocation. The optimal reserve accumulation policy leans against the wind and significantly reduces the exposure to financial crises. The theory is consistent with the joint dynamics of private and official capital flows, both over time and in the cross section, and can quantitatively account for the recent upward trend in international reserves.

Foreign Reserves Management and Original Sin

Foreign Reserves Management and Original Sin

The Effect of Public Debt on Foreign Reserves in Iraq for the Period from 2003-2019: An Econometrics Analysis

This research focus on the Econometrics analysis on the public debt on foreign reserves in Iraq for the period from 2003-2019. This has economic consequences that the economy will bear sooner or later. As a result of Iraq

Emerging Markets Interest Rates, International Reserves and Net Foreign Assets

AbstractIn the context of a managed float regime, we adopt the portfolio balance view to show the effects of the net foreign assets of an economy and its gross international reserves level on interest rate differentials. We argue that the interest rate differential can be explained by three components, where the components are the expected depreciation of the domestic currency, a default risk premium, and a portfolio balance premium. Our theoretical analysis suggests that the interest differential is a convex function of the level of gross international reserves. In particular, the differential and gross reserves are inversely related at low levels of reserves, but positively at higher levels. We evaluate our framework for the case of Lebanon. We find that the differential is inversely related to both net foreign assets and gross international reserves. These findings are then confirmed with data from Indonesia and Mexico.

Role of Workers’ Remittances in Export Performance of Nepal: Gravity Modelling Approach

Role of workers’ remittance seems to be an imperative part of Nepalese economy for about two decades. The remittances inflow has supported to maintain the foreign reserves at the national level and consumption in household level. This paper investigates the role of remittances in export performance of Nepal employing the gravity modelling approach using annual data for the period of 26 years, from year 1993 to 2018. First, we document the scenario of remittances and export nexus, then conduct an econometric estimation for the exports flows from Nepal to its trading partners. The major finding indicates that the remittances have a statistically significant negative impact on export performance, which is largely impacted by the size of the trading partner’s economy as indicated by the estimation’s results. The study suggests for an urgent attention from policy makers to make the remittance in favor of exports by developing the export strategies. In this regard, a special focus on exporting to the rich economies may be a good way to boost the export performance of Nepal.

Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves of the European Central Bank

The aim of the article is to analyze the foreign exchange reserves of the European Central Bank and the methods of their modern management. As a result of the study, it was proven that when implementing foreign reserve management policy, the European Central Bank and national central banks should pursue the objectives of the current monetary policy for future generations. Foreign exchange reserves are a special good that only the current generation and the current government cannot use. The character of the article implies different research methods: analysis of the sources of law, legal dogmatic, comparative dogmatic method. The analysis carried out as part of the study indicates that management of foreign exchange reserves of ECB has an impact on intergenerational justice.

The Erosion of Foreign Reserves Among the Motives of the Sale Window, the Coverage of Import Requirements, and the Decline in the Financial Resources Cycle in Iraq for the Period (2014-2018)

The Erosion of Foreign Reserves Among the Motives of the Sale Window, the Coverage of Import Requirements, and the Decline in the Financial Resources Cycle in Iraq for the Period (2014-2018)

Impact of Foreign Reserves and Economic Growth on Money Supply: Evidence from the WAMZ Countries

This paper analyzes the impact of foreign currency reserve and economic growth on money supply using panel data from five West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) member states from 2001-2019. The study employed the dynamic technique, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares (FMOLS and DOLS), and the static method (fixed effect model) for the robustness check. The long run results showed that foreign currency reserves (FCR) have a positive impact on money supply, implying that a one percent increase in FCR augments money supply (M2) by 2.87%, 0.44% and 0.08%, respectively, in the long run. Similarly, economic growth is associated with an increase in money supply in both models. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) estimation revealed a feedback association between foreign currency reserve and money supply. This means that foreign reserves and money supply are complementary. Conversely, a unidirectional causality moving from economic growth to M2 is observed, demonstrating that economic growth causes M2. This outcome is explained by the quantity theory of money (QTM) in which the velocity of money is a positive function of total money supply. As money circulates in the economy as a result of a surge in investments, this consequently increases money stock. Similarly, investment opportunities that are being exploited day-by-day explains the growing money stock (WAMI, 2018). Central banks should endeavor to monitor the expansionary influence of net foreign assets (NFA) on money supply growth in the WAMZ by establishing suitable methods to sterilize foreign exchange infusions into the economy.

Foreign Reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq and its Influence on Foreign Investment Flows (Applied Research in the Period 2004 - 2019)

The importance of research results from its analysis of a major economic variable, which is foreign investment in an unstable environment that has not been witnessed by any country in the world. And because the research is applied, it has used real data on the work of the Central Bank of Iraq. Therefore, the results they will obtain are concrete results, And the problem of research may therefore be summarized by the following question: Has the Central Bank of Iraq been able to contribute to attracting foreign investment via its foreign reserves?. To prove the main premise of the research, “there is a significant statistical relationship between the Central Bank of Iraq's foreign exchange reserves and foreign investment” the standard quantitative approach has been applied, and the research reached several conclusions, The relationship between the Iraqi Central Bank's foreign assets and foreign investment is positive, and this fits into the theoretical details of the research, which reflects the success of the goal of accumulating such reserves, especially since they increased in the period under discussion, It also reflects the success of the Central Bank of Iraq in managing these assets.

The Actual Independence of the Governors of the Central Bank of Iraq and its Effects on Inflation for the Period 2003-2017

This research presents indicators that were used In estimating the independence of the Central Bank of Iraq, which distinguish between the law independence (de jure autonomy) and the actual independence (de facto autonomy) for the three central bank governors for the period 2003-2017, through the turnover rate index of governors (TOR). The research also provides a new indicator of the turnover rate of members in the executive authority in Iraq for the same period, and the effects on inflation. The study also outlines a set of behavioral indicators ​​for governors that highlight the effects of actual independence on inflation.
 The main findings of the research were that the actual independence, in terms of the turnover rate index, gradually decreased for the research period, but the behavioral indicators of the governors showed that they maintain price stability. Therefore, the study presents evidence on the effect of the actual independence on inflation, because of the control of the exchange rate through the foreign currency auction and the decline of foreign reserves.

Deficit financing approaches and the Nigerian sector’s output

This study examined the effect of deficit financing on Sectorial Output in Nigeria from 1986–2020. The independent variable in the study is deficit financing measured by domestic debt, foreign debt, budget deficit, and Foreign exchange reserve while the dependent variable in the study is Sectorial Output measured by Manufacturing Sector and Services Sector Output. Accordingly, the two models support the ARDL Methodology since they reported mixed integration. The study found that domestic debt has a positive significant effect on Sectorial Output in Nigeria. More so, Foreign Debt has a negative insignificant effect on Manufacturing Sector Output. However, it has a significant effect on the Services Sector Output in Nigeria. Again, the study found that Budget Deficit exerted a positive significant effect on Manufacturing Sector Output. However, it exerted a negative insignificant effect on Services Sector Output. While Foreign Reserve exerted a negative insignificant effect on Manufacturing Sector Output, Foreign Reserve had mixed effects on Services Sector Output; such effect tends to be statistically significant only in the short run. Lastly, the both inflation rate and the interest rate have a mixed effect on Sectorial Output.

The Families’ Behavior in Consuming Imported Goods and its Relationship to the Trade Deficit in the Iraqi Economy

The Iraqi families ’behaviors in consuming imported goods have affected the treatment or reduction of the severe imbalance between the trade balance deficit and the government budget deficit. furthermore, these consumer behaviors have become an obstacle to the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies (monetary, financial, and commercial) in treating the problem of depletion of foreign reserves and the ineffectiveness of the interest rate and exchange activating bank credit and the prevailing of current spending over investment. Thus decreasing the tax base and the inflexibility of government revenue sources and commodity dumping, and the continuing impact of these economic imbalances (which were created by the accumulation of ineffective economic policies and programs) has led to the inefficiency of treatment and targeted and measures to find solutions to these imbalances and then Activating the local economy. That requires understanding household behaviors in consuming imported goods and identifying the factors affecting these consumer behaviors, which required a survey of (1000) families that included several realistic and hypothetical indicators to determine the general trend and understand these behaviors and then come out with conclusions that contribute to treating the imbalances Economical at its root.

Empirical determinants of exchange-rate volatility: evidence from selected Asian economies

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the empirical determinants of exchange-rate volatility (ERV) in selected Asian economies, namely, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. Specifically, it examines how the volatility of foreign reserves, government spending, industrial production, gold prices and terms of trade affect monthly ERV during the examined period.Design/methodology/approachThe authors carry out the empirical analysis by using monthly data for the period January 1997–March 2019. First, the volatility of the underlying variables is measured based on the conditional variances obtained by estimating the univariate (generalized) autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [(G)ARCH] model for each variable during the study period. Next, the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH)-Lagrange multiplier test is applied to ensure that there are no remaining ARCH effects in the residuals. Finally, the multivariate autoregressive-moving average-GARCH (1, 1) models are estimated to examine whether and how the volatility of the underlying variables affects ERV.FindingsThe results reveal that the current period volatility of exchange rates is significantly affected by ERV in the previous period in all selected countries. The results also indicate that the volatilities of the underlying macroeconomic variables are quite differently related to ERV in examined Asian countries. Foreign-reserve volatility (VFXRES) has negative and significant impacts on ERV in Bangladesh, China and Malaysia. Government-spending volatility is negatively related to ERV in India, whereas it is positively related to ERV in all other examined countries. The results also suggest that although terms-of-trade volatility reduces ERV in both Bangladesh and Pakistan, it amplifies ERV in the remaining examined countries. However, gold-price volatility (VGOLDP) significantly, positively contributes to ERV in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia. On the contrary, the higher volatility in industrial production (VIPI) results in lower ERV in Indonesia and Pakistan, whereas it increases ERV in China, India and Malaysia.Practical implicationsThe findings have several important policy implications. First, the findings suggest that both Bangladesh and Malaysia should keep an adequate level of foreign reserves to stabilize their foreign exchange rates. Second, as government-spending volatility has a vital role in determining ERV, it is necessary to bring sustainability and continuity in government expenditures. Bangladesh and Pakistan can stabilize their foreign exchange rates by making exports more competitive, viable and accessible.Originality/valueThis paper significantly contributes to the existing literature by exploring how the behavior of unexpected variations in the factors determining exchange rates affects ERV in selected Asia countries. Most of the published studies have examined the determinants of exchange rates by considering the macroeconomic variables at their levels. Departing from the existing studies, this paper significantly relates the volatility (second moment) of exchange rate determinants to the behavior of ERV. Further, this paper provides firsthand empirical evidence on this issue for the selected Asian economies.

Economic Scar Tissue of COVID-19 Puzzle: An Analysis, Evidence and Suggestion on Global Perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic has instigated tremendous human and economic hardship around the world. Using meta-literature and time series analysis, we conduct both synthesis and empirical analysis to investigate particularly the economic perspectives of COVID-19 across several financial systems: (a) Asian market, (b) European market, (c) American market and (d) Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) market. The critical review of the leading business and finance journals of ISI-WOS summarizes that the outburst of COVID-19 mercilessly affects global economies; however, the end phase of the systematic cascading effect has not clearly folded yet. The probable reasons of economic downturn are productivity reduction, labour immobility, undue job loss, scarcity of employment opportunities, discontinuation of supply chain, declining foreign exports, investment uncertainty, adverse clientele effect, etc. However, after analysing the pre- and during COVID effect on foreign reserve and remittance, we identify an inconclusive finding: (a) bullish trend, (e.g., the USA, Canada, Mexico, Japan, India, Bangladesh and Singapore); (b) bearish trend, (e.g., the UK, Sri-Lanka, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Italy and Brazil). Our time series analysis between pre- and during COVID-19 also documents the economic mystery that although the overall economic growth has gone down, foreign reserve and remittance have increased gradually across several economies. Overall, the current global situation demands systematic, well-targeted and aggressive fiscal-monetary stimulus initiatives. Therefore, this study offers theoretical, empirical and policy-oriented academic novelty with the possible suggestions and dynamic strategies to circumvent COVID-19 adverse effects.

Assessing Banking and Currency Crisis Risk in Small States

To complement the early warning signals literature, we study the determinants of banking and currency crises for small states and currency boards. Building on the crisis dataset by Laeven and Valencia (2020), we estimate a binominal logit model to identify the determinants of crises, and as a case study, we apply our models to the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). Our findings largely confirm past studies’ results that both external and domestic fundamentals matter in predicting crisis likelihood, but we find that small states and fixed exchange rate regimes are more sensitive to these fundamentals, compared to larger economies. Our empirical results also suggest that for currency board economies, keeping a high level of the foreign reserve cover—the “backing ratio” defined as official foreign reserves as a share of central bank demand liabilities—is critical to reduce the likelihood of both banking and currency crises. The backing ratio is particularly important during years of global economic downturn.

Carry Trade, Exchange Rates, and the Balance-of-Payments

Abstract This paper presents a partial equilibrium model that integrates interest rate arbitrage with the balance-of-payments constraint to determine the real exchange rate. The sequential logic is the following: (i) carry-trade determines the term premium, with the spot rate showing greater volatility than the forward rate, (ii) uncovered interest rate parity determines the spot rate based on the real exchange rate consistent with a financial constraint, defined as a stable ratio of foreign reserves to foreign debt; and (iii) the trade balance consistent with the financial constraint determines the long-run real exchange rate for a given ratio of domestic to foreign income.

Empirical Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market: Evidence from India

This study investigates the relationship between the Indian stock market price behaviour and macroeconomic variables. The proxy for the Indian stock market is the BSESENSEX while Foreign Reserve, Exchange Rate (Indian vs. US Dollar) and CPI are proxies for the macroeconomic variables. The Johansen Cointegration Test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly data collected from websites of Reserve Bank of India and Bombay Stock Exchange within the time period of January 2000 and February 2020 have been applied. We observe a contradiction between the results of trace statistics and the maximal eigenvalue of the Johansen Cointegration. The -trace statistics of cointegration allude to the long-run association between the Indian stock market and its constituent macroeconomic variables. The VECM is then applied to examine the long-run and short-run causalities and the results reveal the same. This study has profound implications for investors to diversify their portfolio, considering the impact of the constituent selected macroeconomic variables in the short run and long run. JEL Codes: B22, J11, R53

Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria

This study examines the effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomics Performance in Nigeria from 1980-2019. The variables of interest include External Debt, Reserves, Exchange Rate, External Debt Servicing and Government Expenditure were analyzed using co-integration, auto-redistribution lag model (ARDL) and Granger Causality test to understand the long and short run relationship between the variables. Result revealed that there is a unidirectional relationship between foreign reserves and the exchange rate. Exchange rate Granger causes foreign reserves in Nigeria, while foreign reserves do not granger cause exchange rate Granger. This means that as the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates, it always has an impact on Nigeria's foreign reserves. The study recommends among other thing that the government should ensure that the country's foreign reserves are used and managed efficiently. This is because it has been established that foreign reserves have a beneficial impact on macroeconomic performance and stimulate economic growth both of which help to enhance the Nigerian economy.