Impact of Foreign Reserves and Economic Growth on Money Supply: Evidence from the WAMZ Countries

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of foreign currency reserve and economic growth on money supply using panel data from five West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) member states from 2001-2019. The study employed the dynamic technique, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares (FMOLS and DOLS), and the static method (fixed effect model) for the robustness check. The long run results showed that foreign currency reserves (FCR) have a positive impact on money supply, implying that a one percent increase in FCR augments money supply (M2) by 2.87%, 0.44% and 0.08%, respectively, in the long run. Similarly, economic growth is associated with an increase in money supply in both models. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) estimation revealed a feedback association between foreign currency reserve and money supply. This means that foreign reserves and money supply are complementary. Conversely, a unidirectional causality moving from economic growth to M2 is observed, demonstrating that economic growth causes M2. This outcome is explained by the quantity theory of money (QTM) in which the velocity of money is a positive function of total money supply. As money circulates in the economy as a result of a surge in investments, this consequently increases money stock. Similarly, investment opportunities that are being exploited day-by-day explains the growing money stock (WAMI, 2018). Central banks should endeavor to monitor the expansionary influence of net foreign assets (NFA) on money supply growth in the WAMZ by establishing suitable methods to sterilize foreign exchange infusions into the economy.