Foreign Public Debt Research Articles

El impacto de la deuda externa pública sobre la inversión privada en México: un análisis de cointegración

Existe una relación de desplazamiento entre variables de política fiscal y el gasto privado. Se argumenta, por ejemplo, que el gasto público desincentiva a la inversión privada. Sin embargo, la evidencia formal indica que esta relación de desplazamiento no siempre se cumple. En particular, se ha mostrado que es posible encontrar una relación de complementariedad entre el gasto público y variables reales del sector privado, como el consumo y la inversión, en el largo plazo. En este trabajo analizamos la dinámica estocástica de corto y de largo plazo de la inversión privada y la deuda externa pública en México, una variable que ha sido poco utilizada como proxy del gasto público. Por medio de la estimación de un modelo de corrección de error, derivamos resultados consistentes con los encontrados en la literatura reciente. Esto es, identificamos que, mientras que la deuda pública externa exhibe una relación inversa con la inversión privada en el corto plazo, esta relación se invierte en horizontes amplios.

Foreign Debt and Economic Development

This paper characterizes the optimal path of foreign public debt that can support politically unanimous (Pareto welfare improving) economic growth under uncertainty. The feasibility of the plan depends on whether the maintenance of political consensus in the debtor country requires additional loans that are high relative to the country’s outstanding debt. If a program is feasible, then the creditors will have an incentive to preserve political support for the plan, in case of adverse developments, by offering debt relief. Unlike the certainty case, where only total debt matters, uncertainty makes also the timing of debt repayments critical for economic development.

Capital Inflows to Hungary in 1995–96 and the Accompanying Policy Responses

In order to analyze the composition and effects of, and the policy responses to, capital inflows to Hungary during 1995–96, we present an analytical framework that emphasizes the distinction between net capital flows to the private and public sectors (the latter includes the government and the central bank). This distinction is essential in Hungary's case, because figures for overall net inflows conceal the fact that huge net capital inflows to the private sector were accompanied by large repayments of foreign public debt, covered by significant privatization revenues. We present indicators of the domestic monetary impact of net capital inflows in order to analyze the magnitude, costs, and effects of sterilization. We note that extensive sterilization and the use of privatization revenues for public debt repayment largely explain why capital inflows to Hungary did not have significant effects on the real economy or on domestic monetary aggregates in the period reviewed.

Small States in Big Trouble: State Reorganization in Australia, Denmark, New Zealand, and Sweden in the 1980s

In Australia, Denmark, New Zealand, and Sweden in the 1980s, coalitions of politicians, fiscal bureaucrats, and capital and labor in sectors exposed to international competition allied to transform the largest single nontradables sector in their society: the state, particularly the welfare state. They exposed state personnel and agencies to market pressures and competition to reduce the cost of welfare and other state services. The impetus for change came from rising foreign public and private debt. Rising public debt levels and expensive welfare states interacted to create a tax wedge between employers' wage costs and workers' received wages. This undercut international competitiveness, worsening current account deficits and leading to more foreign debt accumulation. Two factors explain variation in the degree of reorganization in each country: differences in their electoral and constitutional regimes; and the willingness of left parties to risk splitting their core constituencies. Introduction of market pressures is an effort to go beyond the liberalization of the economy common in industrial countries during the 1980s, and both to institutionalize limits to welfare spending and to change the nature of statesociety relations, away from corporatist forms of interest intermediation. In short, not just less state, but a different state.

Testing Alternative Conceptions of the Relationship between Direct Foreign Investment and External Debt in Poor Countries

This article examines the relationship between direct foreign investment and external public debt accumulation in Third World states. Four basic connections between foreign investment and debt are examined. The first sees debt as resulting from the repatriation of profits by foreign investors. The second sees debt as a product of the effects of foreign investment on growth in the host state. The third posits that foreign investment leads to debt due to its impact on the host's terms of trade. Finally, a large foreign presence is regarded as creating greater debt by producing the desire to counterbalance the role played by foreigners. The results suggest that repatriation does lead to greater debt and that this effect is associated with investments in the manufacturing sector.

Un exemple de modélisation et de prévision en Afrique

As requested by the economic administrations of some African countries, the OFCE Econometric Department was led to build and finalize short and medium term forecasting models different from those currently used in the developed countries. This paper presents the model built for the Planning Agency and the Ministry of Economy and Finance of the gabonese Republic. The first part develops a few methodological points on the modelling associated with the building of the economic budget. The second one presents the « MEGA » model main characteristics (Modèle de l'Economie gabonaise). This model features two major specifics. On the one hand, it includes not only national accounts but also public finance (in budget item), balance of payments as well as internal and foreign public debt. On the other hand, three means of State Account loops can be considered : the adjustment can be made either on public investment, or foreign debt or on the Treasury. Studying the growth of the Gabonese Economy over the past 5 years, shows that the functioning of the model with endogeneous public investment traces the observed behaviour rather closely.

The Foreign Public Debt of China.

The Foreign Public Debt of China.

The Foreign Public Debt of China

The Foreign Public Debt of China

State Loans in Their Relation to International Policy

The Argentine Republic, like all America, was deeply moved by the military steps taken by England, Germany and Italy in the month of December, 1902, against Venezuela for the settlement of claims of various sorts. Among these claims, arising some from special contracts and others from material injuries sustained by the subjects of the nations mentioned in the revolutionary commotions and civil wars of the unfortunate Republic, was made to figure the collection of the deferred interest on the foreign public debt, outstanding in the form of bonds issued by the Venezuelan government for the construction of railways and other public works. The coercive measures adopted assumed at one time a character of extreme violence, the Powers going so far as to seize the Venezuelan fleet, bombard the cities of La Guerra, Puerto Cabello and Maracaibo and establish a rigorous blockade of the coast.It was at this moment of veritable consternation for America that the Argentine Republic sent to its Minister in Washington the note of December 29, 1902, that has given rise to most important controversies and debates, which now, after the lapse of so long an interval, are far from exhausted.