Foreign Policymaking Research Articles

Role constellations and foreign policy: Brazil and Chile’s approaches towards the Belt and Road Initiative

ABSTRACT Following the inclusion of Latin America into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2018, countries in the region have formulated different responses to it. Some joined while others remain distant. Current BRI-related literature falls short of consistently explaining countries’ foreign policy decisions towards the BRI. In discerning the reasons why developing countries that are economically dependent on China joined the BRI or not, this article argues that countries’ different role constellations with China shape their foreign policy vis-à-vis the BRI. It contends that under a congruent role constellation – in which the conception of a cooperative role with China is congruent with other roles, foreign policymakers are inclined to form a benign perception of the BRI. This would inform deference to the BRI. Under a conflicting role constellation in which the conception of a cooperative role with China runs in conflict with other roles, foreign policymakers’ perception tends to be more ambiguous or malign about the BRI. Therefore, non-deference is adopted. This study focuses on Brazil and Chile’s enactment of different roles, and concludes that Brazil’s conflicting role constellation and Chile’s congruent role constellation have led them to formulate opposite approaches towards the BRI.

Domestic imperative of the Philippines’ South China Sea policy: personality-driven policymaking and constant shifts between China and the United States

This article aims to explain the oscillations of the Philippines’ South China Sea policy vis-à-vis China between accommodation and confrontation from 1991 to 2022. It argues that the Philippines’ personality-driven foreign policymaking was conducive to dramatic shifts in position on the South China Sea issue. The presidential system of government and patronage politics in the Philippines give the presidential inner circles considerable leeway to shape and reshape the country’s foreign policy. Despite being constrained by domestic socio-political conditions at a given time as well as the political and security thinking embedded in its domestic politics, individual Philippine presidents and/or the presidential circles managed the South China Sea issue vis-à-vis China and the United States in particular ways according to their different sets of personal beliefs, professional expertise, and practical experience. This explains why the power transitions in the Philippines often caused major shifts in its management of the South China Sea disputes over time.

US Policy Dilemmas in the Indo-Pacific

The Biden Administration in the United States is confronted with an acute dilemma in dealing with the rise of China as an assertive, aggressive and ambitious power in the global order. It seeks to preserve the economic benefits of maintaining good relations with China, yet is uncomfortable with the spread of Chinese influence across the world. This policy dilemma is not new for the US foreign policymakers and there are several instances of Washington’s dilemma in dealing with China in the post-World War II period. As the existing superpower United States and aspiring superpower China struggle to manage their relationship, the dilemmas faced by the US are likely to continue deep into the future. The complex interdependence marked by trade and investment relations, complex geopolitical imperatives and the need to prevent conflict escalation makes it difficult for Washington and Beijing to escape policy dilemmas.

Critical Annotations on Historical Documents: Methodological Possibilities for International Relations Research

This process note explicates the methodological intervention of maintaining fieldnotes on government documents and its significance for historically situated international relations (IR) research. For the most part, IR scholarship treats archival documents as the neutral preserve of the state, representing its coherent national interests. Building on discussions around critical methods within IR, I argue that there is a need to reflexively engage with the writing and curating practices of the state. This process note deploys the ethnographic hallmark of thick description within IR research through critical annotations on archival documents and other government publications on India’s eastern Himalayan borderlands between 1880 and 1965. These annotations encourage a granular reading of government documents and situate them within a larger context of their production, reception, archival memorialisation and subsequent access. I propose that critical annotations help us move beyond post-hoc analyses of foreign policy in terms of success and failure. Instead, in viewing IR theorising as ‘unfinished dictionaries of the international’, I argue that critical annotations challenge a unitary view of the state and facilitate a more nuanced analysis of foreign policymaking emphasising historical contingencies within which policies are articulated and enacted.

Future classrooms and ed-tech imaginaries. Notes from the Estonian pavilion at EXPO 2020 and beyond

ABSTRACT Estonia has since the liberation from the Soviet Union in 1991 successfully branded itself as a digital society and an education nation. This transformation builds on a sociotechnical imaginary where the progression of learning and the advancement of future citizens is postulated by a restructuring of the classroom through digital solutions. In this case study, we look at a prototype of a future classroom that was set up at the Estonian pavilion at the world fair EXPO 2020 in Dubai, as part of a nation branding process, promoting the nation’s educational system and prosperous ed-tech sector. The future classroom was promoted using slogans and futuristic visuals that targeted foreign investors and policy makers, in a way that suggested that the anticipated digital future already exists in Estonia, and therefore, is available for foreign investment, while at the same time connecting to a national and historical narrative of Estonia as part of the European cultural sphere.

Externalization of Indian federalism: Understanding the role of West Bengal and Tripura on India’s policy toward Bangladesh

ABSTRACT In a federal political system like India, the role of the federal units bordering the neighboring countries becomes crucial in foreign policy-making toward neighboring countries. It is expected that when similar political parties or coalition partners remain in power in both the center and the states, federal politics does not hinder policy-making toward neighboring countries. Moreover, foreign policy being a central subject, federal units any way reflect passive tendencies, especially in the case of governments with the same party affiliations. Both these simplifications are contested in this paper by citing instances of the role of West Bengal and Tripura, India’s two federal units bordering the neighboring country of Bangladesh, at different historical junctures, in which similar political parties in the center and the state resulted in more friction than when different political parties were in office in matters of India’s foreign policy-making toward Bangladesh. The paper argues that instead of federalization of foreign policy, where federal units have an influential role, this particular experience suggests an externalization of federalism, where an external variable (Bangladesh) influences internal federal dynamics to the extent that domestic electoral politics force the political parties of the two federal units to give importance to the neighboring country in taking positions on foreign policy-making. The immediate context of fifty years of the India-Bangladesh relationship and question about over-centralization during the latest phase of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) regime in India push the authors to take up Bangladesh as a case to contest the given of Indian federalism in foreign policy making.

The Gulf and its foreign policies

The nine states of the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula – Iran, Iraq, Yemen and the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – are bound together in a regional system but not a security community. Four major conflicts in the region since 1980 have contributed to a volatile set of relationships which feed into perceptions of risk, threat and interest, and have shaped the conduct of foreign, defence and security policy-making accordingly. Other factors, such as revolutionary upheaval, sectarian politics and the roles of non-state actors as well as external powers, have added to an already combustible mix and made it harder to reach consensus on key issues of foreign policy. This article examines the foreign policy landscape in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula and assesses a range of factors which determine the context in which measures are framed, formulated and implemented. There are two major parts to this article. An opening section argues that the myriad connections among the nine states together constitute a definable sub-regional complex, to adapt the concept developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Waever, and as evidenced by the patterns of conflict in recent decades, albeit one based on an imbalance of conventional forms of power in which three larger states coexist alongside five smaller ones with Yemen separate yet intimately linked. This leads into a second section which explores the many interconnections which have provided the contextual backdrop to the conduct of foreign policy-making in regional states over the past four decades, and which continue to resonate today. The article focuses throughout on the linkages between domestic and foreign policy and between perceptions of interest at national and regional levels as guiding factors for policy-makers in each of the states involved.

The Influence of International Law on Foreign Policymaking

This paper has encompassed the practices of foreign policies in relation to the international law as accorded in different international organizations validated by the members of nation-states. International law is a set of rules, principles, and standards which regulate the international relations between and among states. Foreign policy making refers to the formulations of the norms, values, and guidelines of how concerned sovereign states conduct their relations with other sovereign states. It is assumed that international law has been developing since the development of human society. In modern times international law has been developed based on the Code of Hammurabi, Magna Carta (1215), the Westphalia Treaty (24 October 1648), and dozens of modern international laws. The influence of international law in the formulation of the foreign policy of sovereign states started in ancient times. However, it became influential only after the development of the concept of the modern sovereign states. This study has focused on the influence of international law in the foreign policymaking of state. The particular sovereign states have their guidelines about their foreign policy. In addition, the particular state has its distinct conception of the domestication of international laws. Therefore, the influence of international law on the foreign policy of any sovereign state depends upon the process of domestication of international law by that particular state. In the modern era, most sovereign states are also state parties to international laws. Hence, the foreign policy of most modern states has been influenced by the international law. This study has focused on the influence of international law in the foreign policymaking of a sovereign state.

UNITED STATES FOREIGN INTERVENTIONS IN ITALY AND KOREA

The Communist victory in the Italian elections of April 1948, prompted fear to the American administration and U.S. foreign policy makers. The first numbered document issued by the National Security Council, NSC 1/1 of November 14th, 1947 warned that “The Italian Government, ideologically inclined toward Western democracy, is weak and is being subjected to continuous attack by a strong Communist Party.” The NSC recommended, in addition to public support for the beleaguered Italian government, a programme to “actively combat Communist propaganda in Italy by an effective U.S. information programme and by all other practicable means, including the use of undeclared funds.” President Truman approved NSC 1/1 on November 24th. On December 14th, the President signed NSC 4/A giving responsibility for “psychological warfare” to the CIA. A week later, the agency set up the Special Procedures Group (SPG), which laundered over $10 million from captured Axis funds for use in the Italian election campaign. This paper examines the United States foreign interventions in Italy and Korea dictated by the fear of the spread of Communism in Italy and Korea during the cold war.

More bark than bite? European digital sovereignty discourse and changes to the European Union’s external relations policy

ABSTRACT Despite the allure of ‘European digital sovereignty’ as an official European Union (EU) strategic objective, it remains unclear whether this discourse has driven concrete changes to EU external action policies, particularly those leveraging cyber instruments. This question is explored vis-à-vis three policies which have enabled the EU to pursue its digital sovereignty objectives in practice: the Cyber Diplomacy Toolbox, external capacity building (CCB) assistance initiatives, and the 5G Toolbox. Drawing upon extensive archival research and elite interviews, the paper finds that, while European digital sovereignty discourse influenced comprehensive changes for the 5G Toolbox process, it failed to drive policy changes to the Cyber Diplomacy Toolbox and external CCB assistance initiatives. To explore this variation, the paper considers institutional and ideational factors particular to EU external action over the 2017–2022 period. Overall, the study contributes both to contemporary debates about European digital sovereignty and its relationship to EU cyber instruments and longstanding work on EU foreign policymaking.

“El Principal Enemigo Nacional”: Revolutionary Guatemala's Response to Allied Policy toward German Presence in Latin America (1944–1952)

AbstractThis article examines the migration and expropriation policies of Guatemala's revolutionary governments toward Germans present in the country during the postwar years and the start of the Cold War. It reconstructs the challenges around the domestic and international articulations of their strategy. Revolutionary governments’ concerted efforts to confiscate valuable land and condition the return of German-Guatemalans classified as ‘dangerous’ can be interpreted as part of a cohesive plan to regain control of strategic domestic resources for future redistribution. It also reflects financial policies that have both electoral and financial purposes. The article is built around newly available judicial, legislative, and consular (France) Guatemalan sources, along with personal letters from Guatemala's top politicians, and complemented by Mexican, Chilean, Argentine, British, and US diplomatic documents. In methodological terms, this article shows the importance of articulating long-term processes, here the nineteenth-century German presence in Guatemala, in the context of historical junctures such as the end of World War II and the beginning of the Cold War. It also draws attention to the importance of analyzing events on domestic, regional and global scales to understand foreign policy-making. This article enriches an already complex set of global, regional, and domestic interactions of the postwar period, as well as the role of Guatemala during that time.

Dış Politikanın Uluslararası Öğrenci Hareketliliğindeki Rolü: Türkiye’nin Afrika Açılımı Örneği

This article examines the impact of foreign policy decisions, specifically the Africa Opening Policies, on international scholarship programs and student mobility from Africa to Türkiye. The background of Türkiye’s African policy is discussed, along with policies made by different governments. The article evaluates student exchanges and scholarships in bilateral agreements and regional cooperation between Türkiye and African countries. The central question is whether the openings in Turkey's African policy have had any effect on student mobility from Africa. To answer this question, the article uses international scholarship programs as an instrument in Turkish foreign policy in the context of the Africa Opening Policies as a single case study, which is designed to provide an in-depth understanding and contextualization of scholarship programs within foreign policymaking. Analyzing the policy documents from relevant institutions such as the Council of Higher Education, the Ministry of National Education, and the Presidency of Turks Abroad and Related Communities, the study uses process tracing methodology to show that foreign policy openings and desired relations with a particular country or region affect the design and priorities of international higher education programs. Thus, the article explores foreign policymaking as a driving factor in developing international student mobility in Türkiye.

From Transaction to Transformation: Explaining the Leadership Shift on EU Sanctions Policy Against Russia

The article examines the leadership shift toward the EU sanctions policy against Russia in context of ongoing reconsideration of status quo that was caused by full-scale Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The author draws attention to the transformation of the EU political leadership and their vision on the matter of foreign policy-making as a response to Russian aggression. Particular focus is put on the comparative analysis of competition outcomes between transactional and transformational viewpoints on sanction policy against Russia in years 2014–2021 and since February 2022.

Chinese Economic Statecraft in Southeast Asia and Its Uneven Impact in Laos and Cambodia

This paper examines how China has successfully translated its economic might into political clout in Laos and Cambodia. The country’s role as a major trading partner, foreign investor, and provider of aid to both countries has contributed substantially to their national development. This massive influx of Chinese investment and aid has also yielded positive results, as both countries have demonstrated a more accommodating attitude toward Beijing on a variety of issues. However, Chinese economic statecraft has had differing degrees of influence on the foreign policymaking of Laos and Cambodia, particularly with regard to their foreign policies toward Vietnam, a critical secondary state in Southeast Asia. While Cambodia has been less hesitant to bandwagon with China, Laos is still seeking to balance between China and Vietnam. This paper argues that Laos and Cambodia’s existing perceptions of Vietnam dictate in part how they respond to China’s economic inducements and affect the outcomes of Chinese economic statecraft.

The effects of presidential breakdowns on foreign policy in Latin America

AbstractPresidents and their ideologies have long been thought to be important explanatory variables in Latin American foreign policy, but little is known about how presidential breakdowns, a common form of leader change, affect foreign policy. I use a qualitative structured comparison to analyze the effects of nine presidential ousters on their successors’ foreign policies. I focus on cases in which the legitimacy of the process is in a gray zone, when narrative disputes are more likely to emerge. The findings indicate that incumbents politicize foreign policy when they use it to attain public support but accommodate it to congressional interests when they need support of Congress; meanwhile, international peers respond to presidential breakdowns according to their strategic and ideological rather than normative concerns. Even though Latin America is dominated by weak states, domestic politics, especially during crises, play a major role in explaining their foreign policies. Considering the role played by presidents in foreign policymaking, understanding this kind of presidential succession is essential.

Domestic politics and international competition: populism and the importance of understanding rhetoric

ABSTRACT How do ideology, foreign policy, and the international system interact with and shape one another? This paper examines the relationship between ideology and foreign policy in the United Kingdom, India, and China and finds three common threads. First, while ideology likely affects foreign policy formulation, the causal mechanisms involved are complex and not necessarily uniform across states. Second, destabilizing forces like populism are increasing around the world with the potential to disturb current conceptions of the international order. Finally, from a policy perspective, distinguishing between a state’s operational and symbolic rhetoric can reduce the likelihood of strategic miscalculation. With these commonalities in mind, we contend that foreign policymakers must approach other states understanding that each state’s domestic situation is unique and that while Sino-American competition looms large in American policymaking, it might not be the driving force behind other states’ foreign policy decisions. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Army, Department of Defense, or United States Government.

Sweden, NATO and the role of diasporas in foreign policy

Abstract When and how do diasporas influence the foreign policy of liberal democratic states? Few studies have sought to conceptualize how diasporas affect strategic bilateral relations between states. We argue that these non-state actors are an increasingly important factor in western liberal democratic societies, which challenge traditional theories of foreign policy. To explore when and how the transnational societal ties and interests of diaspora groups affect foreign and security relations between states, we develop a triadic analytical model of state–diaspora interactions and specify key contextual factors. To illustrate the dynamics at play, we analyse the influence of the Kurdish diaspora in Sweden on Turkish–Swedish bilateral relations in the wake of Sweden's decision to apply for full NATO membership. Our case-study builds on semi-structured interviews as well as news media sources, speeches and official documents. The study shows that the Kurdish diaspora demonstrates an independent role and an ability to shape the policy process due to the permeability of the political system. As a result, the policy-process is becoming more domesticated, thereby constraining the role of the executive. The article contributes important insights to policy-makers and diplomats on what impact transnational state–society relations can have on foreign policymaking.

Artificial Intelligence and its Impact in International Relations

In an era marked by remarkable technological advancements, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful force in the realm of International Relations. AI's adaptability, which includes automating the processes of foreign policy-making and improving predictive analytics, is swiftly reshaping the ways in which countries participate in international affairs. The impact of AI is notably observed in activities like data analysis, policy assessment, conflict resolution, cybersecurity, language translation, and disaster response, all of which streamline diplomatic activities and enhance communication. This article discusses how AI technology will shape the field of International Relations.

Coalition politics in German foreign policymaking

Coalition politics in German foreign policymaking

A Founding Role in Türkiye’s Africa Policy: The Action Plan for Opening to Africa

In direct proportion to the development of Türkiye’s relations with Africa, the number of studies on bilateral relations is also increasing. However, the Action Plan for Opening to Africa, which was prepared in 1998, is a milestone in Türkiye’s relations with Africa and has not been examined specifically and in-depth. This study aims to examine all aspects of the Action Plan for Opening to Africa, which plays a founding role in Türkiye’s Africa policy. In this context, the focus is on the content of the plan, the internal and external developments that brought it about, and the role of foreign policymakers who put these developments through the filter of their perception. To guide the analysis of these issues focused on in the study, role theory and documentary source screening based on Ministry of Foreign Affairs sources were used to examine the Action Plan. As a result of the study, it has been observed that the systemic conditions affecting Turkish foreign policy after the Cold War and the Action Plan put forward as a visionary foreign policy step by İsmail Cem, who served as the foreign minister, especially under the conditions of coalition governments, played a founding role in Türkiye’s relations with the continent.