Domestic imperative of the Philippines’ South China Sea policy: personality-driven policymaking and constant shifts between China and the United States

Abstract

This article aims to explain the oscillations of the Philippines’ South China Sea policy vis-à-vis China between accommodation and confrontation from 1991 to 2022. It argues that the Philippines’ personality-driven foreign policymaking was conducive to dramatic shifts in position on the South China Sea issue. The presidential system of government and patronage politics in the Philippines give the presidential inner circles considerable leeway to shape and reshape the country’s foreign policy. Despite being constrained by domestic socio-political conditions at a given time as well as the political and security thinking embedded in its domestic politics, individual Philippine presidents and/or the presidential circles managed the South China Sea issue vis-à-vis China and the United States in particular ways according to their different sets of personal beliefs, professional expertise, and practical experience. This explains why the power transitions in the Philippines often caused major shifts in its management of the South China Sea disputes over time.