Foreign Policymaking Research Articles

Western diplomacy and state access to capital

What determines government access to capital? Conventional explanations of state credit access rest on tenuous assumptions and fail to fully elucidate market behavior seen in recent years. This article argues that investors evaluate governments based on their diplomatic ties to the West. Specifically, diplomacy with major Western powers serves as a heuristic which signals to market actors that the debtor state is a trustworthy borrower with low default risk. Focusing on in-person diplomacy with the United States, I construct a new data set, the United States Economic Diplomacy (USED) Data, which codes over 5,000 meetings between the US President, US Treasury Secretary, and high-level foreign policymakers from 1990 to 2016. Among a sample of 110 countries, the statistical results uncover evidence of a significant but conditional “Western advantage” in sovereign bond markets. Greater diplomatic ties to the United States are associated with higher volumes of bond issuance. This advantage, however, manifests itself primarily when global capital is scarce and reverses as lower global interest rates incentivize greater risk-taking among investors.

Struggle for the Legacy: Sino-India Rivalry over Energy Sources in the Indian Ocean

Global economic power has shifted from the Atlantic waters to the Indo-Pacific waters. China and India are robust rising powers competing for ultimate regional and global politico-economic opportunities. Energy has become a common factor for both nations, leading to overlapping spheres of influence, strategic responses, and national interests. This article addresses the puzzle of the absence of military confrontations over the issues of energy sources in circumstances that carry enormous potential for conflict. This study aims to contribute to filling the research gap in interpreting the rivalry between China and India over energy resources. The analysis extends through an eclectic approach, incorporating assorted through assorted debates from different realist thought strands. It treats the theories of international relations as emphasising the structure of international relations. However, there is a complex interplay with the perceptions of those structures by the foreign policymakers of a country. The tentative hypothesis of this study has been that “energy rivalry between rising military powers in the Indian Ocean has increased tension, though not to the extent of violent confrontation”. They bargain for regional hegemony, but a deterrent effect prevents an armed conflict between two rising powers. The findings suggest that the tentative hypothesis is supported by substantial evidence regarding energy-based rivalry. Amidst aspiration to dominate, especially over security and energy affairs, neither China nor India would entrench towards a “Mutually Assured Destruction” (MAD). Besides acquiring defensive and offensive military capabilities, they are also concerned with diversifying its energy policies, including land routes for energy supply. The possibility of mutually assured destruction provides an incentive for deterrence, preventing violent confrontation over energy issue in the Indian Ocean.

Australian foreign policy, the media and responses to mass atrocities

ABSTRACT This paper begins to put together a thus-far missing picture of the dynamics between Australian public opinion, media and foreign policy responses to genocide and other mass atrocities, in the Asia-Pacific and further afield. It examines key factors likely to influence these relationships, focusing on the role and significance of normative-ideational imperatives, such as Australian values and notions of ‘good international citizenship’ in Australia's foreign policymaking. To assess the centrality of these imperatives for the public and their implications for foreign policy, an exploratory study is conducted of Australian mainstream media's coverage of the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar during 2016–2017. The findings point to striking normative omissions in the media's coverage and public and official deliberations over Australia's policy responses to the crisis. The essay discusses potential explanations for these omissions and highlights themes for further research arising from the study. These relate to the influence of political party bipartisanship on Australia's foreign policies, the importance of middle powers cooperation for international atrocity prevention, and the extent to which a focus on refugee intake and humanitarian aid might have substituted for discussions of more direct ways Australia could assist in halting the violence itself.

Explaining populist securitization and Rodrigo Duterte's anti-establishment Philippine foreign policy

Abstract To the surprise of many, populist leader Rodrigo Duterte instigated major shifts in Philippine foreign policy. His antagonism against the United States and European Union, fascination towards the revisionist Russia and China, and disdain for international law and institutions were viewed as significant departures from the nation's orthodox stances. Drawing on Moffitt and Tormey's conception of populism as a political style, and Buzan, Wæver and de Wilde's securitization theory, we develop and test the populist securitization framework in the context of Duterte's foreign policy-making. We argue that populist performances are securitizing acts comprised of distinctly populist performative repertoires used by political leaders to frame and execute an ‘anti-establishment’ foreign policy with sufficient level of audience consent. Using discursive interpretative analysis, we examine the impacts of Duterte's populist securitization of the liberal West as a threat to Philippine sovereignty. We find that while populist performances function as securitizing acts that can reorient established foreign policy positions and biases, such performances lead to uncertainty and erosion of credibility amid institutional fragmentation and domestic political distractions. Thus, the sustainability of populist performances on foreign policy depends on reconciling the tensions and overlaps between the populist leader's varying audiences and their mass constituencies.

Do populists escalate international disputes?

Abstract Among the potentially most consequential effects of populism is its impact on countries' international conflict behaviour. However, empirical evidence about populists' approach to international disputes is inconclusive. We develop a theoretical framework focused on mobilization and personalization, which we argue are particularly relevant characteristics of populist foreign policy-making. We hypothesize that, on a conflict–cooperation continuum, a country's approach to a bilateral dispute will become more conflictive under a populist government if that dispute is strongly used for domestic political mobilization, and if decision-making on that issue is highly personalized. Conversely, foreign policy will not become more conflictive in cases of weak mobilization and personalization. We carry out in-depth qualitative within-case comparisons of non-populist and populist governments' policies in Bolivia (2002–2019), India (2004–2022), and the Philippines (2010–2022), focusing on two selected bilateral disputes per country. Drawing on a broad range of sources, including 71 expert interviews conducted in the three countries, we find that populists in power escalate international disputes if they strongly use foreign policy issues for domestic mobilization and, at the same time, strongly personalize decision-making. This finding nuances existing assessments about the effect of populism on foreign policy change.

The effects of global populism: assessing the populist impact on international affairs

Abstract With the global rise to power of populist leaders over the past decade, research on populism, including its international implications, has flourished. However, we still lack a nuanced understanding of the international effects of this new populist wave. The special section that this article introduces seeks to bridge this gap by systematically examining three types of international effects of populism. One group of contributions addresses the impact of populism on the processes of foreign policy-making in countries governed by populists (politics). Another group focuses on effects in terms of foreign policy agenda and its substantive outcomes (policies). A third group of contributions studies the impact of populism on states' stances towards international institutions (international polity). This introduction proposes a theoretical framework that takes into account the existent diversity among populist governments, specifically addressing how the more or less authoritarian character of populism explains variations in international outcomes across politics, policies and polities. A better understanding of these varied characters and effects can contribute new insights to lively debates about the potential challenges posed by populism and populists in the contemporary international order, and the prospects for mitigation.

Iran’s axis of resistance through the lens of ontological security

Unlike traditional approaches that analyse an actor’s foreign policy by focusing on the search for physical security and material interests, ontological security advocates a more nuanced approach that considers identity politics, regime security, issues of legitimacy, and emotional motives. This article aims to examine Iran’s Axis of Resistance from the perspective of ontological security, without rescinding the possibility of power struggles or ideological motivations in influencing Iran’s foreign policymaking process. This study posits that the Axis of Resistance embodies a profound meaning and overarching significance for Iran that transcends mere considerations of physical security or sectarian-­ideological inclinations. The pursuit of the Axis of Resistance by Iran serves to provide the regime with ontological security, achieved through the utilisation of national narratives, the establishment of routines, concerns pertaining to domestic order, and the incorporation of emotional underpinnings of the Islamic regime. The existential significance that Iran ascribes to the Axis of Resistance is of crucial importance in maintaining this paradigm, despite all its costs.

Holistic Pragmatism: the Chinese Approach on International Relations

Different geographical environments produce different histories, cultures, civilizations, philosophies, and mentalities, all of which have an enormous impact on their decision-making and foreign policy-making. Thousands of years of social norms and tradition have shaped Chinese people's holistic and pragmatic thinking and approach, determining China's policymakers' objective and overall approach to state governance and international relations. Above all, China, as a civilizational state that has been unified for thousands of years, distinguishes itself from the Western nation-states formed in modern times through continuous wars and peace treaties. Consequently, China has formed different perceptions and interpretations of national and international affairs, and distinct approaches and decision-making processes in terms of inter-state and international interactions and conflict management. By studying various dimensions of Chinese history, culture and philosophy, as well as analyzing its foreign policy-making and active participation in global affairs, this study argues that holistic pragmatism has pervaded China's domestic and foreign policy-making, influencing Chinese policymakers’ decision-making and people's thinking habits. This highlights the necessity to broaden the academic scope of international relations to encompass diverse geographical, cultural and historical perspectives, thereby providing a more comprehensive and profound understanding of international relations in our interconnected world.

Ideological dynamics in Ghana’s foreign policy: exploring the interplay between macro-ideologies and contextual ideas

ABSTRACT This article contributes to the evolving approaches that demonstrate the adaptability and everydayness of ideologies by exploring how contextual approaches can respond to the nuances of the ideology – foreign policy nexus in the African context and allow for a systematic comparative analysis. Drawing on Jonathan Maynard’s ideology-conflict thesis, Michael Freeden’s ideological morphology, and Marius Ostrowski’s comparative ideological morphology, it challenges the non-ideology thesis in African politics, arguing that the issue lies in the limitation of approaches, not the absence of ideology in foreign policymaking. The article demonstrates this by analyzing Ghana’s economic diplomacy, an area widely seen as non-ideological, across three administrations – Nkrumah, Rawlings and Kufuor. Applying the Ideological Contextualization Framework to the Ghanaian case, I argue that the varieties of Ghanaian nationalism characterized by its historically evolving components partly explain Ghana’s economic diplomacy. While the analysis in this article aims to further enhance the bid to see ideologies as phenomena that are ‘necessary, normal, and [which] facilitate (and reflect) political action’, 1 it is a call for further empirical application of contextual frameworks. It also demonstrates the potential of ideology to open analytical spaces for a better understanding of the dynamics of agency and dependency in Africa’s international relations.

“Making Democracy Safe for the World”: Kenneth Waltz on Realism, Democracy, and War

Abstract This paper reevaluates the history of how some anti-war realists have assessed the relationship between democracy and armed conflict. To do so, I turn to a central realist figure: Kenneth Waltz. Drawing on newly available archival sources and his published work, I explore Waltz’s shifting relationship with American democracy, foreign policymaking, and war. I focus on his career-long anti-war commitments, tracing his foreign policy engagements over the half century of his academic career. Early on, Waltz argued in favor of American democracy as a source of adaptive, effective foreign policy. Gradually, however, his views shifted. After the Cold War and especially after 9/11, his anti-war beliefs and belief in democratic foreign policymaking came increasingly into tension. He moved from defending American democratic foreign policymaking to calling for structural constraints from without. We see this in Waltz’s late-life endorsement of the Iranian nuclear program, which was motivated not just by his well-known optimism about proliferation, but also by the hope that an Iranian nuclear arsenal would deter American intervention in the Middle East. Waltz’s experience has implications both for how we read his body of work and for how we understand realist attempts to shape foreign policy.

“Winning the Peace”: The Role of International Peace Settlements in the Creation of World Orders – A “Geopolitical Marxist” Perspective

For the discipline of International Relations (IR), the study of International Peace Settlements (IPS) for the organization of postwar international orders has thus far primarily been the purview of realist, liberal, and constructivist approaches. To date, Marxist approaches have tended to either ignore the significance of IPS in the formation of new global orders or have been inscribed into longer-term overarching processes – namely, the reified consequences of the development of capitalism. These proclivities have had the unwelcome effect of subsuming the role historical agents have played in the devising of international ordering strategies under preordained universal “laws of motion” and downplaying the broader efficacy of foreign policymaking in the building of world order. This paper proposes to rectify this Marxist lacuna by highlighting how adopting an approach that elaborates on the principles of Geopolitical Marxism (GPM) in IR can overcome these shortcomings. The paper argues that a radical historicist methodology for analysing these important world-historical junctures retrieves the significance of contextualized agency within the historical materialist tradition and overcomes the issues beholden to structuralist Marxist approaches.

THE INTERSECTION OF RELIGION AND PAKISTAN'S FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS: A COMPREHENSIVE STUDY

This research paper outlines a framework for understanding and analyzing the influence of religion on foreign policy in the context of the 'post-secular' shift in internationa l relations. As religion becomes progressively relevant to statecraft and foreign policymaking, its impact varies significantly across various states. The primary aim of this research is to examine the influence of religion on the foreign policy choices of Pakistan and to compare these influenc e s with those affecting India's foreign policy. By exploring these dynamics, the research seeks to uncover the possible implications for Pakistan and to identify how Pakistan can leverage religion as a tool of soft power in its statecraft methods. Furthermore, this study aims to contribute to the broader discourse on the role of religion in global politics, providing insights that could inform diplomatic strategies and international relations theory. Ultimately, the findings could help policymakers understand the nuanced ways in which religious factors shape internationa l interactions and state behavior.

Stability Maintenance and the ‘Three Evils’: Framing China’s Role in Central Asia

ABSTRACT This article analyzes 430 security-related press releases from meetings between officials from China and the Central Asian republics between 1991 to January 2023 to examine how its threat perceptions have evolved. First, China’s focus on the Three Evil Forces (terrorism, extremism, separatism) has won its support and cooperation from regimes across the region. Second, China has advanced a number of new security concepts over the years, most recently the Global Security Initiative. Each of these concepts, as well as frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and China + Central Asia, advance China’s vision of a multipolar world order in which universal values are replaced with adherence to state sovereignty and cultural relativism. This article argues that China’s securitized approach to regional foreign policy-making has helped coordinate local responses to disparate challenges while granting them political buy-in and support to mobilize state resources to promote regime stability.

4 - China in Africa with New Approach of Media Development

Mass media has not only changed the mode of information-sharing but has also changed the mode of policy, foreign policy-making and people-to- people contact in being used as a means of soft power. This paper focuses on Chinese investment in the media sector of African countries and explores what motivates China’s huge investments in the African media landscape. The study is descriptive, based on primary and secondary sources of literature. Methodologically, it uses qualitative research through content analysis of ‘soft power politics’ and ‘public diplomacy’ theories. China’s media development assistance in Africa is a manifestation of the Chinese strategy of soft power politics and the application of public diplomacy. This study claims that China’s media development assistance programme is helping Africa to develop its media infrastructure, techniques of broadcasting and cultural exchanges, which influence African public opinion and offer media content that is entirely different from Western-dominated media groups. In return, this helps China to promote a positive image and win the hearts and minds of people on the African continent.

INDONESIA'S FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE TOWARDS ROHINGYA ETHNIC ASYLUM SEEKERS IN 2015: A Foreign Policy Change Perspective

In 2015, Indonesia was shocked by the landing of a foreign ship containing Rohingya refugees in Aceh province. Not only Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand also experienced the same incident. The refugees came to obtain temporary asylum due to the country's conflict, which threatened the survival of the Rohingya tribe in Myanmar. Indonesia's rejection gave rise to various reactions from within and outside the country. Responding to this, Indonesia finally accepted the existence of Rohingya refugees by also signing the Joint Statement Ministerial Meeting on Irregular Movement of People in Southeast Asia. These foreign policy changes will be examined further using the Foreign Policy Change theory to determine the factors influencing foreign policy-makers in deciding their foreign policy. This research will use explanatory-qualitative methods to analyze Indonesia's momentum in taking windows of opportunity toward the Joint Statement Ministerial Meeting on Irregular Movement of People in Southeast Asia.

‘What gives you the right?’ Foreign policymakers’ perceptions of the legitimacy of sanctions against democratic breakdown in Venezuela (2014–2019)

Drawing on contemporary debates on legitimacy and contestation in international relations, the article offers a novel analytical framework to study processes of legitimation and delegitimation of international sanctions. We apply the framework to analyse foreign policymakers’ evaluations of the legitimacy of the sanctions imposed by states and international organisations against Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela. The content analysis of evaluative statements shows that (de)legitimation processes focus mostly on who has the right to enforce sanctions and reveals differentiated legitimacy evaluations of multilateral versus unilateral enforcers, as well as of different types of international organisations. Sanctions imposed by multilateral senders and with a restricted impact on targeted individuals are evaluated as more legitimate than unilateral sanctions with a wider scope. We argue that the study of the (de)legitimation of sanctions may have important implications not only for enhancing compliance, but especially for transforming international sanctions into a legitimate mechanism of global governance.

Strategy Is Only Partly an Illusion: “Relative Foresight” as an Objective Standard for Evaluating Foreign Policy Competence

Abstract Foreign policymakers must grapple with complexity, uncertainty, and subjectivity. These challenges raise the possibility that “strategy is an illusion”: that there is no reliable method for assessing skill at managing international politics. By contrast, we show that researchers can objectively evaluate a critical component of foreign policy competence using a standard we call “relative foresight,” defined as decision-makers’ ability to anticipate consequences of their choices as compared to alternative views based on similar information. Relative foresight can be measured without relying on value judgments or subjective probabilities. By contrast, other common frameworks for gauging foreign policy competence, such as comparing leaders’ behavior to the rational actor model or assessing procedural rationality, almost always leave room for reasonable disagreement. We demonstrate that relative foresight provides a useful tool for evaluating major foreign policy choices through case studies of Barack Obama’s decisions regarding the Afghan Surge and the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound. Our framework has broad implications for research on normative, prescriptive, and descriptive dimensions of foreign policy analysis.

China’s rise and the United States’ response: implications for the global order and New Zealand/Aotearoa. Part II: The US response, emergence of a multi-polar order, and New Zealand/Aotearoa foreign policy-making

ABSTRACT China’s rise is reconfiguring the global order as it develops into the world’s second most powerful nation-state and becomes an increasingly serious threat to US global hegemony. In Part Two of this article, the US response to China’s rising economic, geopolitical, and military power is analysed with a focus on Obama’s ‘pivot towards Asia’, Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, and Biden’s comprehensive strategy to ‘out-compete’ China. These developments have important implications for Aotearoa as governments walk a tight rope between increasing economic dependence on China and traditional security, military, and diplomatic relationships with Australia, the UK, and the US. In contrast to realist analyses of New Zealand’s foreign policy responses, which are largely anti-China and advocate closer ties to the US, this article is equally critical of both imperialist powers, and argues for a shift towards non-alignment and neutrality in future conflicts.

EU delegations as intermediaries of perceptions of the EU: A view from the MENA region

ABSTRACT The European Commission in its 2015 study on the perceptions of the EU acknowledged that mutual perceptions held by actors in the international arena affect their expectations about the other’s behaviour and hereby guide the interpretation of the other’s actions. Knowledge of how and what image of the MENA countries and of the EU is conveyed by country delegations is important for understanding whether the information that influences EU foreign policy-making is representative, and of whom. EU delegations are an acknowledged source of knowledge that feed into EU policymaking, and proposals have even been made for strengthening their role. Based on interviews with heads of delegations/Ambassadors in 2021, four interlinked categories of concerns affecting the perceptions of the EU are identified: historical legacy; knowledge about and expectations towards the Union; competing values and aims; and the EU’s internal policy inconsistencies. The findings in the interviews are contextualized through an analysis of previous research on the perceptions of the EU. Further, the article discusses the role of delegations in EU policy-making and invites to take a critical view of Ambassadors´ ‘perceptions of the perceptions of the EU’.

More than Putin: managed pluralism in Russia's foreign policy

Abstract The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine took most experts by surprise, but before the war, there were numerous voices in the Russian public debate calling for much tougher policies towards Ukraine and the West than the ones pursued by the government. This article challenges explanations that prioritize external factors or focus solely on President Putin and shows that examining opposition, state media and government discourses is necessary to understand Russia's foreign policy properly. The article contends that the concept of managed pluralism (defined by Harley Balzer in 2003), which has not yet been used in the analysis of Moscow's international behaviour, is a useful tool that can address the gap in the literature and shed light on important mechanisms behind Russia's foreign policy-making. Consequently, the article reveals mechanisms that, by allowing certain voices while eliminating others, steer Russia's foreign policy in a specific direction, which in this case made the invasion of Ukraine possible. Finally, it indicates that observing actors admitted to the public debate and their propositions may be a clue to the direction of Russia's future foreign policy. More broadly, this article points to policy implications and theoretical benefits of managed pluralism for our understanding of other states' foreign policies.