Foreign Policy Decisions Research Articles

Contesting the West? Domestic Contestation in Bulgarian Foreign Policy From 2014 to 2022

Abstract This article addresses the evolution of Bulgarian foreign policy since the start of the Russian Ukrainian crisis of 2014 until 2022 through the prism of domestic contestation of foreign policy choices and decisions. The article reviews four key votes that took place during the period that related to NATO decisions and EU-related decisions towards the situation in Ukraine. This article raises three central questions. First: to what extent were Bulgarian foreign policy decisions related to NATO and the EU increasingly contested and politicized in domestic politics? Second: what is the impact of domestic political dynamics in terms of fragmentation, coalition building and role of smaller fringe extreme right political parties on the growing politicization and contestation of Bulgarian foreign policy towards NATO and the EU? Third: to what extent might such politicization and contestation question Bulgaria’s commitments to both NATO and the EU?

Afghanistan's Foreign Policy: The Second Period of Taliban Rule (2021- Up to Now)

This research has studied Afghanistan's foreign policy during the second term of the Taliban's rule (2021–present). Given the sensitivity and global reactions to the Taliban's rise to power, gaining legitimacy from the international community has been the Taliban's top priority. The main discussion in this research is the examination of the Taliban's performance in foreign policy over the past two years and the factors influencing this group's foreign policy decisions.

Explaining the Role of Domestic Factors in Shaping Foreign Policies: India and Pakistan in Comparative Perspective (2014-2020)

Since 2014, India's domestic and foreign policies have reflected violent religious fanaticism and hyper-nationalism. If elected to power, Modi often stated that India would pursue a tough stance against Pakistan and would put Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) directly under the control of the Indian central government. This did not paint a positive picture. Since 2014, India's primary goal in foreign policy has remained to encircle Pakistan on all of its borders and isolate it from the rest of the world. Nearly all of the world's superpowers and the Muslim nations have encouraged diplomatic relations with India. India strategically employs all of the regional nations and global powers it has close ties to fight Pakistan. Without any regional or international pressure, it unilaterally changed the special constitutional status of Indian-occupied Kashmir. The reactionary foreign policy of Pakistan, on the other hand, did not rely on pre-emptive measures to fight India's foreign policy, which is primarily built on plotting against Pakistan. India consistently takes advantage of Pakistan's weak and nebulous international policies. This study aims to give a detailed analysis of the elements, in particular the internal or domestic ones that were responsible for influencing foreign policy decision-making in India and Pakistan between 2014 and 2020. Using Allison’s models of foreign policy has identified the factors accountable for Pakistan's unproductive and responsive external policy in contrast to India's proactive and forceful external strategy. One of the crucial findings that this study identified is that the democratic system and political continuity in India are the significant elements providing a strong base for effective policy making and building strong institutions as compared to Pakistan where the absence of both these elements are contributing to institutional crisis as well as weak and passive decision making.

Development Cooperation and Dependency: An Analysis of Brazilian‐Spanish Cooperation in Latin America Between 2010 and 2018

Based on analysis of Brazilian‐Spanish cooperation in Latin America, this article aims to contribute to the discussion on whether South–South Cooperation (SSC) represents an alternative model with specific and differentiated objectives, or if it largely reproduces the constraints and interests traditionally associated with the North–South model, but with new institutions and actors. We start by analysing the main criticisms levelled at cooperation in the literature, emphasising the identification, review and comparison of the mechanisms of domination and dependency that derive from the bilateral and multilateral practices of traditional development cooperation. We then construct a synthetic dependency index to measure the ability of Spain and Brazil – as representative cases of North–South Cooperation (NSC) and SSC with Latin America – to influence the foreign trade, investment and foreign policy decisions of aid recipients, and to empirically contrast the lower level of verticality that much of the available literature assumes about SSC schemes. The empirical analysis suggests significant differences between NSC and SSC in terms of their ability to reproduce dependency patterns and validate the discourse that tends to identify the latter as an alternative cooperation model.

Key Concepts in the Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Comparative Examination Using Systemist Theory

The poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making incorporates the conditions surrounding foreign policy decisions, as well as the cognitive processes decision makers undergo en route to a choice. It argues that high-level decision makers, who routinely face stressful decision environments, engage in a two-stage decision process wherein they first employ cognitive-based, heuristic shortcuts in an attempt to simplify the decision task. In the second stage, once the decision task is more manageable, decision makers employ more analytic strategies in order to minimize risks and maximize rewards. Poliheuristic theory also posits that politics is the essence of decision and that decision makers will avoid choosing alternatives that hurt them politically. Using systemist theory, I compare two journal articles that use poliheuristic theory to explain foreign policy behavior and choices. More specifically, I compare Özdamar and Erciyas’s 2020 Foreign Policy Analysis article, which uses case study methods to analyze Turkish decisions during the crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974, with Redd’s 2002 Journal of Conflict Resolution article that uses experimental methods to analyze decision making in an advisory group setting. Systemism uses diagrams in a visual approach to explicate the relationships among various factors in any given theory. As such, systemism enables us to precisely examine how poliheuristic theory has evolved over nearly twenty years as well as compare what the different methodologies of case studies and experimental methods have to offer in explaining the foreign policy behavior of leaders and their advisers.

WHY DID RUSSIA INVADE UKRAINE? PLAUSIBLE THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS

This paper examines three major theoretical frameworks to explain Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine. It is argued that although the war caught many by surprise, it can still be explained by at least several International Relations theories. President Putin’s decision may be erroneous but it should be treated as rational.
 The purpose of this research is to suggest theoretical frameworks suitable for understanding and evaluating the key foreign policy and security decisions taken by the current Russian leadership. It is assumed that the moves and choices taken by the Kremlin, in particular on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resulted from the way decision-makers had perceived the threats and options of the time. It is also assumed that International Relations as a scientific discipline has relevant explanations and frameworks for dealing even with such seemingly irrational decisions like the one taken before the invasion. Political leaders are not going mad; they rather act within specific environments framed by available information and some basic theoretical assumptions.
 This article focuses on examining Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through the lenses of security dilemma, rational decision-making and power transition process. The author argues that each of these approaches can provide a coherent explanation of a strategic logic behind the decision to wage war. Moreover, by using each of these instruments it may be possible to assess Russia’s foreign and security policy beyond its Ukrainian direction, and also in a retrospect.
 An interstate war in a modern world is assumed to bear extremely high costs and generate high risks. Because of that, wars are so rare. But this does not imply that wars are impossible. At different levels and under certain conditions, launching a war may still seem to be the best course of action, in particular for revisionist states, even if it a choice between the bad and the worst.

Ideologeme of Justice and Anticolonial Discourse as Justification for Türkiey’s Foreign Policy

The article critically examines how Türkiey justifies its proactive foreign policy through the concept of justice. The study analyzes Turkish discourse, blending Islamic teachings with an anticolonial stance, to characterize the understanding of justice. Initially used to legitimize opposition against secular elites, justice now serves as a tool for global leadership, mediation in conflicts involving Muslims, and regional focus on post-Ottoman states. It counters political opponents, gains negotiating advantages in EU accession talks, supports aspirations for a UN Security Council seat, and extends military presence beyond the region. The study concludes that justice grants moral legitimacy to Türkiye’s foreign policy decisions, particularly resonating with Muslim audiences.Rooted in Islamist principles and an anticolonial discourse, Türkiye positions itself as a just leader opposing historical oppression by the West. The concept of justice is crucial in shaping Türkiye’s foreign policy, establishing its authority as a just and moral actor internationally. By leveraging justice, Türkiye aims to assert leadership, mediate conflicts, and prioritize historically significant regions. Understanding the ideologeme of justice provides insights into Türkiye’s strategic decision-making and its aspiration for a just and influential role globally.

A Study of India's Foreign Policy from the Perspective of National Identity

This paper explores how a country's national identity shapes its foreign policy. India's foreign policy in South Asia is used as a case study to illustrate this. India sees itself as a dominant power in the region and has pursued a regional order with itself at the center. This has led to more coercion of neighboring powers and cooperation with external powers to contain their growth. Understanding a country's national identity is crucial to comprehending its foreign policy decisions.

Introducing Myth to Foreign Policy Analysis: The Blair Poodle Myth and Its Impact on Constructions of the “Special Relationship”

Abstract This article introduces the concept of political myth to foreign policy analysis. It explains how myth can influence the construction of foreign policy events and decisions and creates a new lens that analysts can use to study this. To do that, this article draws upon conceptual literature on political myth to explain what myth is and how it shapes discursive constructions of the world. Adopting an interpretivist approach, it then uses the concept as a lens to analyze the impact that the Blair Poodle myth has had on the construction of the US–UK “special relationship” from 2002 to 2022 and considers how this has influenced the diplomatic behavior of five UK prime ministers. It finds that the myth has been integral to negative constructions of the “special relationship” over the past twenty years and has inspired political action, including protests, resignations, and more formal diplomatic engagement with the United States.

A “Savior of Isolation”: The Interrelationship between American Isolationism and the Idea of “Manifest Destiny” and Its Embodiment in Pre-World War I Diplomacy

Isolationist ideology made the United States at the beginning of its development more of an island encircled by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans than a New World. However, after the formation of the American nation, “Manifest Destiny” became deeply embedded in the national beliefs based on Protestant culture over time. The former laid the foundation for the American position on internal and external affairs, while the latter determined the way Americans interacted with the outside world. At least until they took center stage on the world stage after World War I, isolation seemed to be the golden rule for Americans. Did “manifest destiny” put an end to isolationism, or did isolationism give rise to “divine destiny”? Or did the two complement each other and finally play a role in specific foreign policy decisions? These are the questions that accompany the history of the establishment and development of the United States and are worth exploring.

The Conflicting Soviet Responses to the Lausanne Process (1922-1924)

The article examines the Soviet responses to the Lausanne Process, which took place from May to November 1923. The process involved the trial of Russian émigrés Moritz Conradi and Arkadii Polunin, who were accused of murdering Vatslav Vatslavovich Vorovskii, the Soviet representative in Italy and head of the delegation to the Lausanne Conference, on May 10, 1923. The acquittal of Conradi and Polunin by a Swiss jury on November 16, 1923, under the verdict of "not guilty," as they were seen as avenging victims of Soviet repression, had a significant impact on the Russian emigration. While the historiography increasingly recognizes the role of various Russian émigrés in turning the trial into a denunciation of Bolshevism, little is known about the Soviet government's response to Vorovskii's killing and the efforts of the People's Commissariat of Foreign Affairs (NKID) to participate in the legal proceedings. By analyzing unpublished letters written by Soviet government officials found in the Archive of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation and considering the international context of 1923, this study aligns with the historiographic trend that emphasizes collective leadership and institutional autonomy in Soviet foreign policy decisions following Lenin's increasing isolation in late 1922. The research demonstrates that when the Swiss government prevented the Soviet counterpart from participating as a legal party in the process, Moscow resorted to non-traditional foreign projections, which encompassed actions beyond formal diplomacy, and even involved non-communist actors to present the USSR in a positive and "objective" light at Lausanne. However, the bureaucratic complexities of the Soviet state hindered success in court. Thus, the handling of the Lausanne Process by the prosecution serves as an illustrative example of how post-Civil War Soviet institutions operated in relation to one another, characterized by intricate dynamics and an entrenched bureaucracy, far from the alleged "totalitarian" tendencies.

British ‘Guilt’ Concerning Anglo-New Zealand Relations and the Migration of Former IRA Detainees, 1970-1977

This article examines how Britain’s deteriorating relations with New Zealand in the early 1970s rendered the London government to accommodate the Wellington administration’s foreign policy decisions at the risk of exposing Britain’s contentious internal policy arrangements to the wider world. Britain’s decision in the late 1960s and early 1970s to withdraw her troops from Southeast Asia and to join the European Economic Community had a negative impact on her diplomatic relations with various Commonwealth partners, including her traditionally strong bond with New Zealand. This was evident in the increasing anti-British sentiment amongst the people of New Zealand and in the introduction of anti-British policies by the Wellington government in the early 1970s. Consequently, Britain actively sought to placate New Zealand’s feelings and to improve Anglo-New Zealand relations by agreeing to accommodate New Zealand Prime Minister Robert Muldoon’s policy of allowing former IRA detainees in Northern Ireland to emigrate to New Zealand, even though this meant that Britain’s controversial detention policy in Northern Ireland could be laid bare to global scrutiny. London’s high-risk decision to give unofficial advice to Wellington on the suitability of candidates for emigration had to be concealed in order to give the impression that the British government was not in any way involved in New Zealand’s decisions. Therefore, when questions were raised in the British Parliament over the question of London’s involvement in Muldoon’s scheme, the British government went so far as to mislead the Commons on the issue.

A Set of Dead-End and Development in the South China Sea: A 2-Level Game Analysis of the Philippines-China Arbitration Case

Being the heart of the Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia has seen numerous regional disputes over the years. One of which has remained a vocal point of dispute between the states in and outside the region, that is the South China Sea dispute. An interesting point of development in the South China Sea dispute can be pointed to the China-Philippines arbitration case. Such is the case as China, despite having its action in the waterway deemed illegal, simply brushed it off and remains insistant on its claim. Through incorporating the qualitative research method and relevant concepts like the 2 level game theory, the article seeks to explain why China made that decision. Along with that, the article also seeks to posit some regional implications that states in the region should take note of. In understanding the first issue, the 2 level game theory fits the bill as it allows the writers to learn the forces behind China’s eventual foreign policy decision. Here, China’s national interest along with its realization over its power standing plays a big part in the eventual outcome. For the latter, should China’s assertiveness be left with no proper response, it may endanger the region’s growth and stability. Not only that, it would also bring into the stage another global power like the US that would again take the spotlight from ASEAN and its member states. Against such consequences, it is important for ASEAN member states, both claimant and non-claimant, to align their view and approach towards the region’s perennial issue.

The Determinants and Outcomes of Foreign Policy Decision-Making and Public Opinion

The Determinants and Outcomes of Foreign Policy Decision-Making and Public Opinion

The Political Crisis in France 2022-2023: International Chaos of Burning Public Facility

This research aims to know the chaos phenomenon on Macron’s foreign policy agenda will not be affected by the protests. He is continuing with a planned trip to China, together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in the beginning of April. If his agenda is any indication, he will remain extremely involved in foreign policy in the weeks to come. France’s current instability might pave the way for populist and nationalist parties’ voting shares to grow further. This research used field observation and direct data. It is a euphemism to write that the far-right and the far-left party La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) have indicated that they wouldn’t support staunch French support for Ukraine. Although NUPES (a wide-ranging coalition of left-wing parties) shares major domestic policy goals, the parties diverge on foreign policy, particularly as it relates to Russia and Ukraine. Even if parliament plays a marginal role in foreign policy decision making in France, a new National Assembly could also decide to become more vocal and more vehemently question Paris’ current military, financial, humanitarian, and material support to Ukraine. A major issue in Europe right now is ensuring that European and trans-Atlantic unity on support to Ukraine is not only maintained but reinforced. If France were to weaken its support, that would have very serious consequences for internal European Union cohesion and the future of European security.

Science diplomacy from a nation-state’s perspective: a general framing and its application to Global South countries

Abstract Based on International Relations (IRs) grounding theories, this article outlines a realist-constructivist perspective in science diplomacy when assessing a nation-state’s foreign policy decision-making and behaviour. The proposed theoretical framing helps us evaluate existing practices of science diplomacy within the larger context of IRs and allows us to better understand the increasing role of science diplomacy and its potency in the foreign policy of emerging and developing countries. The proposed exploratory research methodology outlines the contours of a science diplomacy reading grid breaking it down into the categories of objectives, strategic drivers, and tools. The data collection and semi-structured interviews with high-ranking practitioners and experts allowed us to assess the meaning of science diplomacy as understood and implemented by Global South countries and to distinguish science diplomacy practices as oriented towards the satisfaction of domestic needs and international positioning.

The Impact of Mubarak's Personality Traits on Egypt's Foreign Policy Decision-Making

The Impact of Mubarak's Personality Traits on Egypt's Foreign Policy Decision-Making

EXPLORING CHINA’S RESPONSE TO THE ROHINGYA CRISIS: A LIBERAL PERSPECTIVE

This paper examines China's response to the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar from a theoretical perspective, drawing on both liberal and Asian cultural values. The study adopts a qualitative approach and employs document analysis to collect data. The findings suggest that China's response to the crisis can be explained by the liberal values of interdependence, cooperation, and institutionalism, which have guided China's peaceful and cooperative approach to resolving the conflict. However, the study also reveals the importance of Asian cultural values, particularly empathy and save-face, in shaping China's diplomatic behavior towards the crisis. The paper argues that China's response to the Rohingya crisis can be divided into three aspects: infrastructure investment, mediation between Myanmar and Bangladesh, and humanitarian assistance, all aimed at promoting collaboration and peace in the region. The study contributes to the understanding of the complexities involved in China's foreign policy decisions and provides insights into the role of cultural values in shaping international relations.

The “CNN Effect” and Its Influence on US Foreign Policy Decision-Making

The “CNN effect” is a term that has been used to describe the influence of 24-hour news coverage on foreign policy decision-making, particularly in the context of the United States. The term was coined in the early 1990s following the Gulf War, during which CNN's live coverage of the conflict was widely credited with shaping public opinion and influencing US foreign policy decisions. Since then, the concept of the “CNN effect” has been the subject of much debate and analysis in the field of media and foreign policy. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the 'CNN effect' on US foreign policy, with a specific focus on its role in shaping public opinion and influencing policy outcomes. Through a case study of US foreign policy initiatives in Somalia, this study analyzes the relationship between media coverage and policy decisions. The methodology used in this study involves conducting an in-depth analysis of media coverage and policy decisions in the selected cases. A combination of primary and secondary sources, including news reports, government documents, and academic literature, was used to develop a comprehensive understanding of the “CNN effect” on US foreign policy decision-making. The findings of this study suggest that the “CNN effect” is a real phenomenon that has had a significant influence on US foreign policy decision-making. Media coverage can create pressure on policymakers to take action by generating a sense of urgency and demand for response among the public and other stakeholders. In addition, media coverage can shape the international community's response to a crisis or conflict, which can further influence policymakers. However, the impact of media coverage on foreign policy decisions is complex and multifaceted, as decision-makers must balance the information presented in the media with other factors, such as strategic interests and long-term goals. This paper contributes to the understanding of the relationship between media coverage and foreign policy decision-making, highlighting the importance of considering the influence of media in policy outcomes. Understanding the “CNN effect” can inform the strategies of policymakers, journalists, and the general public in shaping the discourse and decisions of US foreign policy.
 
 Received: 05 May 2022 / Accepted: 18 May 2023 / Published: 20 May 2023

Connecting international and domestic dots: how conflict entanglement informs resolution and escalation

PurposeThis paper aims to seek to and understand how civil conflict and international claims inform one another. Does the existence of ongoing civil and international conflicts affect how a government addresses an international claim? The paper builds on existing literature that link international and domestic conflict. However, it suggests that the logic behind civil conflicts may be different from that for international ones as states decide how to deal with any one claim.Design/methodology/approachThe paper posits that states faced with domestic conflicts and additional international claims are more likely to seek to resolve an international claim than those without similar conflicts. It develops a series of hypotheses about the likelihood of claim escalation and peaceful settlement attempts and proceed to test them quantitatively using the Issue Correlates of War data combined with the uppsala conflict data program/peace research institute oslo Armed Conflict Data.FindingsOn the one hand, the paper finds support for the argument regarding the difficulty states are faced with when seeking to resolve multiple international claims. On the other hand, it finds that the presence of civil conflicts incentivizes states to resolve international claims either by force or peacefully, suggesting internal violence can both lead to diversionary behavior and attempts at conflict resolution.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings have important implications for work considering the complexity of domestic and international conflict linkages.Originality/valueWhile many studies of claim militarization and peaceful attempts focus on dyadic and international characteristics, this paper creates a more nuanced understanding of the complexities of this foreign policy decision process.