Foreign Policy Decisions Research Articles

Historical analogies, traumatic past and responses to the war in Ukraine

Abstract This article examines the use of historical analogies by political leaders during foreign policy crises. Specifically, we focus on the German, Polish and Czech leaderships' reactions to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and investigate the historical analogies which leaders invoked to justify their responses to Russia's aggression. The existing scholarship recognizes the importance of historical analogies in foreign policy decision-making, but the literature focuses predominantly on several high-profile analogies (i.e. the Munich Agreement or the Vietnam War) and lacks comparative perspective. We employ a dual-method approach that combines qualitative coding with semantic network analysis, and conduct a comparative analysis of the full spectrum of analogies used by Polish, Czech and German policy-makers. We find that politicians did not focus on a single overarching analogy, but employed a wide array of historical references. We also find that even though the countries' policies largely aligned and that their leaders often invoked the same events, the meaning of analogies and the signals they sent differed substantially across cases. Analysing the full spectrum of analogies demonstrates that justifications for supporting Ukraine were shaped more by these states' own historical traumas than by their sympathy for Ukraine, support for international law, or desire to uphold the rules-based international order.

Nepal’s Geostrategic Location: Realist Imperatives on Foreign Policy

Realist imperatives in foreign policy emphasize the pursuit of national interests, power balance, and pragmatic decision-making in an anarchic international system. This study aims to analyze Nepal's foreign policy through a realist perspective, focusing on its historical evolution, challenges, and opportunities. An exploratory research design is employed, using secondary data from peer-reviewed journals, historical records, academic books, policy reports, and governmental publications. The publication period of the sources ranges between 1963 and 2023. The study finds that Nepal’s foreign policy decisions are significantly influenced by its geopolitical position and the need to balance relationships with neighboring powers India and China. The implication of this study is that realist theory provides a valuable framework for understanding how small states like Nepal navigate complex international dynamics to safeguard their national interests.

The Self and the Other: Individual Emotions and Ontological Security in Turkish Foreign Policy

Emotions and ontological security open up one of the latest avenues in International Relations (IR). An increasing number of interdisciplinary approaches have been engaging in emotions and ontological security, for example, foreign policy analysis. However, academic research is scarce concerning the triangulation of emotions, foreign policy, and individual ontological security. Driven by the gap in the literature, the study analyzes how Turkey’s foreign policy decisions influence individual existentialism in terms of ontological security during the AKP era. A subsidiary question addresses how Turkey’s foreign policy decisions adjust/affect individual emotions towards its most engaged and interacted countries. Based on Ontological Security Theory (OST), the study has conducted 20 interviews. The questions cover Turkey’s foreign policy milestones: the start of the EU accession negotiations, the “one minute incident,” the Mavi Marmara incident, and the Arab Uprisings and the Syrian Civil War. The questions aim to reveal people’s emotional reactions to and descriptions of such events. The interview transcripts are analyzed in a Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) context. Through CDA, the individuals’ perceptions of risk, threat, and danger are analyzed to seek the determinants of growing existential uncertainty in tandem with significant foreign policy decisions of the AKP government. This study finds that foreign policy decisions in Turkey impact individuals’ emotions based on key events. Through the case of Turkey, the study contributes to the emerging literature on emotions and ontological security by studying the dimensions between foreign policy and individual insecurities and emotions.

THE CHURCH HIERARCHY REACTION TO THE CAPTURE OF KAZAN (BASED ON HISTORICAL SOURCES)

Based on the historical literary monuments about the capture of Kazan and the letters of Metropolitan Macarius, the paper analyses the role of the Orthodox Church during the conquest of Kazan. The Church hierarchy, represented by Metropolitan Macarius, expressed support for the military campaign of Tsar Ivan. The Church blessed the Tsar and the army for the battle, prayed for victory, positioning itself as a moral authority. The article shows that the analysis of sources does not provide any reasons for assertions about the significant influence of Church representatives on Tsar Ivan in terms of his foreign policy decisions, in particular on the issue of the campaign against Kazan. The Church participation was expressed (in the political aspect) in the formulation of the religious and ideological justification of the Kazan campaign, which was perceived as the defense of the Orthodox faith from the Muslims.

Losing the Pacific to the Anglosphere: AUKUS and New Zealand’s regional engagement

ABSTRACT New Zealand's potential involvement in AUKUS poses a generational foreign policy decision, engaging competing commitments to Pacific and Anglosphere-centred security. This discussion paper identifies implications for New Zealand's regional engagement, and its previous independent, nuclear-free, and Pacific-led policy approaches. It suggests that the Blue Pacific narrative and Indo-Pacific Strategy are irreconcilable and that AUKUS involvement would undermine support for Pacific priorities of climate, development, and disarmament. We should not underplay what is at stake. New Zealand risks losing the Pacific to the Anglosphere.

ESTABLISHMENT OF THE CONCEPT OF PUBLIC DIPLOMACY IN MODERN SCIENTIFIC DISCOURSE: THE ROLE OF PARADIPLOMACY

The article reveals the essence of the concept of public diplomacy and a retrospective of its formation in the current scientific discourse. It is noted that the field of US public diplomacy is quite actively researched by modern scientists. It is shown that the term “public diplomacy” should be understood as the activity of various actors, both governmental and non-governmental, which is intended to explain to the foreign public the foreign policy pursued by the country and to encourage this or that state to make its foreign policy decisions in the direction that is beneficial to the given actor . It has been established that the concept of “cultural diplomacy” is narrower than the concept of “public diplomacy”, which should be understood as a set of activities carried out by both central and foreign bodies of external relations of the state with the aim of researching the attitude and informing the foreign public. as well as establishing contacts abroad, with the aim of improving the state’s image and achieving national interests. So, in the United States of America, there is no separation of “cultural diplomacy” from “public diplomacy”. The concept of paradiplomacy is also considered as a tool of activity of subnational actors in the international arena and components of diplomatic communication processes taking place in the modern world. It has been proven that paradiplomacy is an integral part of modern international relations along with public diplomacy and cultural diplomacy.

Foreign Policy and Public Support for War: New Experimental Evidence

ABSTRACT This paper investigates how foreign policy decisions shape US public support for military intervention on behalf of a state that is under attack. In particular, we consider two key questions. First, does a defender’s foreign policy behavior shape the public’s willingness to defend it? Second, what impact do US “hands-tying” policies, including alliance treaties, public threats, and tripwire forces, have on public support? We use a survey experiment to shed new light on these questions. Our experiment indicates that defender foreign policy matters; the public is more likely to support defenders that have contributed to previous US military operations, and less likely to support defenders that provoked their attackers. We also find that US hands-tying policies have a significant effect on public opinion. Interestingly, these impacts are statistically indistinguishable from one another; no one hands-tying policy is superior as a means of bolstering public demand for war.

Emotions in EU foreign policy – when and how do they matter?

ABSTRACT Despite the increasing importance of emotions in explaining political behaviour, the study of emotions in EU policies and politics remains still very limited. The core objective of this special issue is to fill this gap by shedding light on the role of ‘emotions’ in EU foreign policy and to launch a call to EU foreign policy scholars for taking emotions seriously. By analysing multiple foreign policy cases across different geographies and by elucidating the plurality of emotions expressed by the EU, the contributions to this special issue show how and when emotions bear an impact on the EU’s foreign policy decisions and actions in the cases of international norm violations by external actors. The introduction sets the framework for analysing different roles that emotions might play in EU foreign policy by introducing enabling and constraining mechanisms, whereby the EU’s emotional expressions lead to action/inaction through its institutionalised appraisal process.

Role conceptions and diplomatic behaviours: comparing Japan and South Korea in the South China Sea

ABSTRACT The South China Sea is a region marked by overlapping territorial claims and escalating tensions among various nations. Unlike claimant states, whose direct territorial interests significantly shape their foreign policy decisions, non-claimant states possess a broader range of diplomatic options. This article examines the contrasting diplomatic behaviours of non-claimant regional states in the South China Sea disputes. Through a comparative case study of Japan and South Korea, it argues that the divergent responses of these two middle powers largely stem from the roles they assume within the policy arena. Japan, as an assertive actor driven by a sense of obligation, has actively taken positions on disputed events to demonstrate its presence. Conversely, South Korea, adopting the role of a detached observer, has exercised caution and maintained a low profile, aiming to avoid potential diplomatic costs. The findings highlight the significance of ideational factors in influencing regional states’ responses to security challenges. Furthermore, this study contributes to role theory research by introducing a new term for further study and by demonstrating the tangible effects of role conceptions on state behaviour in specific policy contexts.

Group emotions and their role in EU foreign policy: a social relational model on how emotions travel between EU member states

ABSTRACT EU foreign policy is highly dependent on EU member states, but we still lack a coherent conceptual framework that does justice to the interdependences and co-constitutive relations between EU countries. Building on relational theory and social psychology, we develop a social relational model about group emotions in the Council that conceptualises under what conditions emotions play a role in EU foreign policy decision-making. We formulate scope conditions detailing when the performance of emotions might allow member states to accumulate relational power (e.g. process power), which can in turn allow for the emergence of group emotions and even drive policy changes. Most notably, we shed light on group dynamics within the Council, determining if and how group emotions inform the EU´s policy response to norm contestation. Our framework helps understand why processes of emotional appraisal, contagion, and emergence might sometimes help propel the EU into action, whereas other times they seem to have little or no effect.

Internationalisation of a Mayor: Sadiq Khan’s Involvement in the Brexit Process

After his re-election as the mayor of London, Khan underlined “the scars of Brexit” that are not healed yet. His political stance against leaving the EU has formed a critical interference of Khan in a foreign policy decision of national government. In the light of the literature on internationalisation of non-central government, this study aims to explain Khan’s “actorness” in the aftermath of Brexit referendum by utilizing Hocking’s (1999) theoretical framework. Dimensions of the mayor’s involvement in the Brexit process are explained under the categories of initiators, channels and targets; yet a new grouping titled voices proposed by this study would complete the whole picture of analysis. The press releases derived from the official website of London government constitute the basis of research material.

Balancing Act: India's 'Look West' Policy in the Context of Saudi-Iran Rivalry

India's Look West policy was initiated by Manmohan Singh, but Narendra Modi successfully implemented it in 2014. To establish friendly relations with Middle Eastern countries of oil-rich nations. During the Cold War period, India and Arab countries did not have a good relationship because India was part of the non-aligned countries and another problem was the Kashmiri issue and Pakistan Arab countries were diversifying their economy and finding new opportunities and challenges which impacted their foreign policy India and west Asia had cultural roots and trade linkages from ancient times The main objective of India look West policy to improve cultivate a good relationship with GCC countries and Israel and Iran. Saudi Arabia and Iran both are strategic partners to India and advancing it interests in energy security, economic integration, and strategic partnership to avoid conflict between these two countries. by using this opportunity, India wants to leverage the economic interest and maintain their influence in this region .the presence of the Indian diaspora in Gulf countries particularly in Saudi Arabia adds complexity which impacts foreign policy decisions. The US sanctions on Iran and the growing influence of China in Iran and Saudi Arabia became a challenge to India to maintain their sphere of influence in this region, but also to improve diplomatic relationships with Gulf countries.

The Post-Pandemic World and the Foreign Policy Imperatives

Considering the destructive and disruptive potential of pathogens, this research identifies new lessons and policy imperatives in the governance of future scenarios of pandemics. Although foreign policy players and other critical stakeholders are beginning to recognise the values of global health in foreign policy thinking and decision-making, there are still major gaps in pandemic response, particularly as the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed. To plug the observed gaps, this paper calls attention to three political / foreign policy priorities. First, critical actors must enhance their preparedness for future pandemics by building massive health infrastructure, supersizing the health corps, and investing in programmes that will aid their capacity to predict a health emergency before it occurs. Second, foreign policy professionals must prioritize humanity over high politics in global pandemic response. Third, foreign policy actors must place adequate focus on migration health going into the future.

Egyptian Foreign Policy and the Nile River: A Historical Analysis

Egypt has been one of the most significant countries in the Nile Basin in terms of the hydropolitics of the Nile River. Since Egypt is downstream and Ethiopia is an upstream country having main sources of the Nile waters in the basin, Egyptian water utilization has been highly dependent on the water resources that come from the Ethiopian highlands. Since Ethiopia lacked the financial and economic capacity to effectively utilize the Nile River, Egypt has been the leading exploiting country of the Nile waters. However, the Ethiopians’ infrastructural projects, such as the construction of hydroelectric dams, have been considered a national security threat by the Egyptian foreign policy decision-makers. Therefore, the developments in the Nile River and Egyptian water security have been chief foreign policy concerns for Egypt. In this context, this study mainly addresses the role of the Nile River in Egyptian foreign policy based on international, regional, and domestic factors. Deploying the descriptive qualitative method, it analyses how the dam constructions and developments regarding water sharing and distribution in the Nile Basin have shaped Egypt’s foreign policy throughout the historical process. It utilizes primary and secondary resources such as the original texts of the historical agreements, official statements, memoirs, and related books and articles in the literature.

THE ROLE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN MAKING FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS IN THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN WAR

The article considers the application of the artificial intelligence systems as a new tool in making foreign policy decision. The content of the concept of artificial intelligence is studied, the scope of the use of artificial intelligence systems in everyday life and in international relations is studied. It can be noted that AI, as a progressive and rapidly developing technology, has a large set of tools that help people make decisions and increase the efficiency of their work, for example, save time and spent resources to achieve a particular result. With the development of technology, more and more machines with artificial intelligence are used in various areas of life. For example, the field of medicine, mechanical engineering, data analysis, public administration and politics - all these fields are actively developing with using of artificial intelligence technologies. Special attention is paid to how artificial intelligence affects in making decision, event forecasting, and automation of data analysis. The use of artificial intelligence systems in international diplomacy was analyzed. Attention is focused on the weak and strong sides and what risks this technology can carry for foreign policy decisions. The given statistical data show how artificial intelligence is treated in Ukraine. Based on the research, it can be concluded that for the widespread use of artificial intelligence, it is necessary to develop convenient and transparent rules and algorithms, norms for the using of technology and its interaction with people. Summarizing the discussed topic, we will come to the conclusion that artificial intelligence will soon become a powerful tool in international relations, diplomacy, and in other areas of our life, which will bring benefit and a real threat. But in order for the benefit to be greater, it is necessary that the people who will use artificial intelligence be trained and knowledgeable in the technology.

Actors and structures in international relations. The US, the EU, and West Africa: from indifference and development to promotion of security

ABSTRACT It is an old debate in social science, what is most influential, actors or structures? The paper resumes the discussion by concretely asking, how can the radical policy shift towards West Africa in the wake of the terrorist attacks on the US in September 11, 2001, be explained by applying an agency-structure approach? The article applies a theoretical framework combining neo-classical realist thinking with the reasoning found in historical institutionalism. Concepts like path dependency and critical juncture are helpful. The roles and priorities of the core foreign policy actors in the United States and in the European Union are discussed before the article identifies international and domestic structures that might constrain the role and influence of the relevant foreign policy decision-makers. It is concluded that neither international nor domestic structures represented strong obstacles to the foreign policy decision makers’ ambitions to implement radical policy changes towards West Africa.

The Factor of Multinational Companies in International Relations: The Case of the USA and China

In this study, the historical development of multinational corporations, which have held significant positions in both the global economy and international relations since their inception, is examined, along with the roles they have played in intergovernmental relations. The aim of the study is to reach a conclusion by conducting an analysis of the content found in the literature and examining the findings and data through a content analysis method. In parallel, this study attempts to reach its conclusions by examining the regional policies of the United States and China alongside the activities of multinational corporations in the region. Additionally, the study provides examples of the impact of multinational corporations on international relations by considering high-impact capacity actors such as Apple, Huawei, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, ZTE, and SMIC. Moreover, this study attempts to understand the positions of these actors in the struggle for hegemony by comparing them through the SWOT analysis method. Comprehensive research and findings indicate that multinational corporations still play a significant role in international relations today. These corporations serve not only as negotiation tools and sources of sanctions for nation-states but also play an active role in shaping the strategic and covert foreign policy decisions of states, contributing to their direction. Therefore, this study aims to understand how effective multinational corporations are in the world and in the context of international relations, where the United States and China stand in the struggle for hegemony, and the consequences they have on the political system.

New Book on the History of Soviet-Vietnamese Relations

It is a review of the monograph by prof. I.N. Selivanov, dedicated to the influence of the “Yugoslav” and “Albanian” factors on the formation and development of Soviet-Vietnamese relations in the second half of the 1940s – early 1980s. The events in question played an important role in the history of the international communist and labor movement. The author also touches on such an important problem as the specifics of interstate relations within the “camp of socialism” during the period in which I.V. Stalin, N.S. Khrushchev and L.I. Brezhnev was in power in the Soviet Union. The book consists of three main parts, which reveal various aspects of relations between the USSR and Vietnam with Yugoslavia and Albania. A separate section is devoted to consideration of the processes of making foreign policy decisions in the Soviet Union. Each section of the book is provided with a thematic list of sources and illustrations.

Some conceptual models of foreign policy decision-making based on historical examples

The article analyses four conceptual models of assessing foreign policy decision-making with relevant examples of application from the history of international relations. The study, in particular, examines the behaviorist model, which links changes in the actions of a specific country in the global arena with the peculiarities of the psychological profi le of a single high-ranking representative of state power. The article also addresses the cognitivist model of bounded rationality, which assumes that the decision-maker at the political level is limited in his or her thinking functions, may lack some necessary information, and almost always feels pressure from the external social environment. The study also explains how the incrementalist model works. Its proponents are convinced that a country's development, including its geopolitical position, is primarily infl uenced by confl ict between diff erent authorities who bargain with each other but eventually come to a mutually acceptable agreement. Finally, the article provides information on the model of comprehensive rationality, in which players with individual interests are guided by the desire to maximise benefits and minimise risks when making decisions, including in the field of foreign policy.

Appraisal of Public Opinion in Foreign Policy Making: Nigeria and United States of America as a Focal Point

Public opinion plays an unprecedented role in foreign policy making in Africa as well as in other advanced and sophisticated nations in the international system. However, in the United States of America and Nigeria, empirical evidence shows that public opinion has little or no significant effects on foreign policy decision-making. Several reasons abound for this, some of these reasons are the unwillingness of the political elites to embrace transparency, accountability, and inclusive governance. The study therefore examines the views of scholars on the role of public opinion in foreign policy making in the United States of America and Nigeria. The secondary source of data collection was adopted, data include archival materials, periodical publications, books, and the internet. Most of these materials were sourced through an extensive use of specialized library facilities of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA). The research is descriptive and analytical. The study recommends that the American and Nigerian governments should encourage public opinion in foreign policy making. The researcher also recommend that scholars of International Relations should focus in their research on the role of Government in allowing the input of the public in both domestic and international politics. Keywords: Public Opinion, Foreign Policy, policy, United States of America, Nigeria.