Foreign Policy Behavior Research Articles

The Foreign Policy Behaviour of the Nationalist Action Party in Türkiye: Aspirations, Actions, and Limitations

The Foreign Policy Behaviour of the Nationalist Action Party in Türkiye: Aspirations, Actions, and Limitations

Assessing Japan’s Taiwan Policy: Systemic Clarity, Political Survival and Bureaucratic Prudence

ABSTRACT What are the patterns of Japan’s foreign policy behavior toward Taiwan in the post-Cold War era? It is generally taken for granted that the origin of Japan’s foreign policy to Taiwan has been derived from a unitary strategic calculation related to East Asian international politics and its maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region. This conventional interpretation is insufficient. While external pressure and states’ relative material capabilities within the structure of the international system are crucial in explaining Japan’s policy toward Taiwan, interpretations based solely on the system level of analysis fail to provide a persuasive explanation of Japan’s foreign policy behavior. By conducting three case studies in 2006, 2019 and 2021 through the theoretical lens of neoclassical realism and empirical investigation based on primary and secondary Japanese-language sources, this article argues that Japan’s Taiwan policy has been shaped by the combination of three factors: the degree of systemic clarity at the international level, the Japanese prime minister’s political survival and bureaucratic prudence over the Taiwan issue at the domestic level. Since 2021, Japan has adopted a subtle approach to Taiwan, driven more by a defensive and precautionary response to the heightened sense of crisis across the Taiwan Strait.

Foreign Policy and Public Support for War: New Experimental Evidence

ABSTRACT This paper investigates how foreign policy decisions shape US public support for military intervention on behalf of a state that is under attack. In particular, we consider two key questions. First, does a defender’s foreign policy behavior shape the public’s willingness to defend it? Second, what impact do US “hands-tying” policies, including alliance treaties, public threats, and tripwire forces, have on public support? We use a survey experiment to shed new light on these questions. Our experiment indicates that defender foreign policy matters; the public is more likely to support defenders that have contributed to previous US military operations, and less likely to support defenders that provoked their attackers. We also find that US hands-tying policies have a significant effect on public opinion. Interestingly, these impacts are statistically indistinguishable from one another; no one hands-tying policy is superior as a means of bolstering public demand for war.

Responding to the crisis: Japan’s changing foreign policy and ODA to Ukraine (2014–2023)

The Russian aggression on Ukraine (2022) has marked a significant critical juncture for Japan’s foreign and security policies, and Japanese government has deployed a multitude of political, economic/financial, and limited military measures to support Ukraine. The article investigates a less-explored aspect of Japan’s foreign policy change in the post-2022 crisis setting, namely the development assistance provided to Ukraine. The manuscript discusses this subject from a long-term perspective, exploring the trends in—and directionality of—Japanese development assistance to Ukraine in the context of Japan’s evolving role in the international community between 2014 and 2023. It utilises a role theoretical approach to explore the frictions between the ambitious proactive contributor to peace national role conception promoted by PM Abe Shinzō (2012–2020) and the issue-specific role conceptions guiding Japan’s foreign policy behaviour towards Russia that shaped Japan’s response to the Ukraine-Russia tensions. The article elucidates how the fluctuations in Japanese ODA flows to Ukraine may contribute to our understanding of role conflict and how it was managed, as well as the rebalancing of and changes in Japanese foreign policy that have been occurring since 2022 under PM Kishida Fumio’s leadership.

Does Leadership Matter? Ahmadinejad, Rouhani, and the Change in Iranian Foreign Policy

Following Rouhani's victory in the 2013 presidential elections, Iran's foreign policy (IFP) underwent significant changes after over a decade under Ahmadinejad. To date, only a few academic studies have attempted to incorporate a specific individual-level theory into their respective analyses, even though a large body of literature contends that leadership change is the decisive factor in differences in Iran's policy towards the US and the EU. This study analyzes the leadership styles of Ahmadinejad and Rouhani to reveal the possible impact of decision-maker personalities on foreign policy, and to develop an account of the moderation in IFP. Accordingly, it asks, “How does leadership style influence IFP towards the 'Western world'?" Theoretically, the study benefits from Hermann’s ‘Leadership Trait Analysis’ to find out the impact of leaders’ personalities on foreign policy behaviors of states. Empirically, it analyzes both presidents’ spontaneously selected political speeches, consisting of their answers in interviews and press conferences. Methodologically, the study utilizes the software Profiler Plus to assess individual traits of leaders. Interpreting leadership trait scores of two presidents, the study concludes that certain leadership features allow the construction of foreign policies that are more moderate.

‘Crawling dissatisfaction’: understanding China’s bilateral approach towards South China Sea disputes

ABSTRACT China’s foreign policy behaviour has been highly scrutinized in the last decade. Its foreign policy approach towards neighbouring countries is no exception. Scholars have mostly focused on China’s hard, soft, or ‘dual’ approach to explaining Beijing’s current foreign behaviours corresponding to the South China Sea dispute. However, specific studies on China’s bilateral approach remain understudied, while understanding regarding this matter might result in a better perspective towards regional peace and stability. This paper, thus, has two aims: firstly, it goes beyond rationalist perspectives in understanding China’s bilateral approach; secondly, it provides an explanation of why China chose this approach. It is, therefore, argued that China’s bilateral approach is vastly influenced by Chinese strategic culture as an effort to seek stability. It, moreover, also argues that China’s bilateral approach is not a mere an image of its soft diplomatic approach but more deeply it is a practice of its dissatisfaction towards the liberal order embraced by ASEAN. By choosing a bilateral approach, while formally maintaining multilateralism, China ‘crawlingly’ promotes a non-liberal approach towards ASEAN.

Do leaders really matter? The failure of ambitions in Turkish foreign policy

The field of international relations is recently witnessing an inflation of attention toward political leaders and personalities. Yet, while political leaders mattered to understand foreign policy behaviors, the question is how much they do and under what conditions. This article argues that how leaders and personalities affect foreign policy is up to the variables that can be analyzed at the state and international levels. To illustrate this argument, I use the example of two strong, influential, and revisionist Turkish leaders: Turgut Özal and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The results point out that the main determinative on Turkish foreign policy on these leaders’ period is not their personality as argued. Instead, the main variables we should analyze are the presence domestic and international constraints such as dominant foreign policy actors, economic capacity, political polarization, and international conjunctures.

INFLUENCE OF NEO-OTTOMANISM TRADITIONS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF RUSSIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS: THEORY AND PRACTICE

The article examines the problems of the current state of Russian-Turkish relations through the analysis of the theoretical and methodological apparatus of neo-Ottomanism (new Ottomanism) as a foreign policy tradition, which, from the author’s point of view, today occupies one of the leading places in the foreign policy course of the current government of R.T. Erdogan. The complexity and uncertainty of this phenomenon require the use of specialized analysis methods: a system-structural analysis of the foreign policy of states (developed by the corresponding MGIMO school), a scientific approach within the framework of FPA (foreign policy analysis), separate tools for analyzing the strategic culture and foreign policy institutions of Ankara (according to the methodology of G. Almond and S. Verba). According to the author, for the current foreign policy of Ankara, the tradition of neo-Ottomanism is system-forming due to its ideological saturation of the initial ideological foundation. At the same time, the ambiguity of its interpretations lays down an expansive interpretation of Turkey’s foreign policy behavior in the international arena, which is fraught with problems and conflicts for Moscow’s foreign policy in realizing its interests in areas of international politics that cross Ankara.

The Case for an Expressive Logic of Action

Abstract How can scholars theorize about phenomena like the eroding support, within the West, for the liberal democratic practices that once defined the post-1945 international order? Cumulative evidence shows that resentment toward out-groups shapes public attitudes toward issues like immigration and globalization, bolstering support for isolationist foreign policies in Western democracies. Yet, these findings contrast with the logics of action—based on means-end calculations, shared norms, practices, or habit—that IR scholars use to develop theory. Because existing logics provide a limited vocabulary to theorize about group processes with crucial symbolic and affective features, an important dimension of foreign policy behavior remains undertheorized. In this article, I draw on multi-disciplinary research to develop an expressive logic of action, whereby political behavior expresses an actor's social identification. Based on this logic, group attachment provides a compelling motivation for political behavior, whose activation depends on an interaction between issue framing and psychological dispositions. By focusing on the distinctive features of expressive behavior and specifying the mechanisms behind this behavior, an expressive logic encourages theory development and refinement across domains.

Brahmins and Balance of Power: Re-Reading A.P. Rana's Imperatives of Non-Alignment

Abstract In this article, I revisit a modern classic, a book that is often cited but rarely analyzed: A.P. Rana's Imperatives of Non-Alignment. Appearing in 1976, the book was a culmination of decade-long work and claimed to be the first attempt at IR theory from India. Rana was indeed from the first generation of scholars who engaged deeply with International Relation (IR) theory, and the book drew on a range of, sometimes contradictory, theoretical perspectives from Systems Theory to Realism to English School to Hindu Social Theory. In this intervention, I analyze this book and the corpus of Rana's writings with an attempt to contribute to two themes within IR. First, I show how caste plays a prominent role in Rana's thinking about Indian strategies of foreign policy behavior. His analysis makes a case for seeing nonalignment as a historical continuation of a Brahminical mode of balancing. Consequently, this article is also an effort to place caste as a central category of IR theorization from India. Secondly, I discuss the specific ways in which Rana's realism adapted to its Cold War context and advanced a redemptive vision of realism.

The war in Ukraine, the EU’s geopolitical awakening and implications for the “contested neighbourhood”

ABSTRACT This article looks at how the Russian invasion has reshaped the EU's Eastern neighbourhood policy and subsequently how has the new policy affected the strategies of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. We systematically review policy responses to the war of the EU and the countries of the EU-Russia contested neighbourhood and identify new patterns in foreign policy behavior of these states and key domestic policy changes. We specifically highlight the shift in two key attributes of the EU's foreign policy, which has traditionally defined its neighbourhood policy: its relations with Russia and the inclusiveness of the EaP countries in the European project. We make two arguments: first, the crisis and new risks in the region has created a demand and opened a geopolitical dimension to the EU neighbourhood policy, which required Brussels to fill a hard security vacuum in its own policies in the neighbourhood, which invoked an application of new instruments to deter Moscow and support EU's Eastern allies. Second, the crisis contributes to even faster erosion of the post-Soviet space and a new regional fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Finally, the question of sustainability of these changes and their effect on the EU as an actor remains open.

Sino-U.S. Strategic Competition in the Asia-Pacific: Omnidirectional Hedging of Traditional Middle Powers

The strategic landscape of the Asia-Pacific is now shaped by the competition between China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the United States’ Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy. The Sino-U.S. strategic competition has greatly impacted the strategic outlook and foreign policies of middle powers in the region. This paper argues that the Asia-Pacific middle powers are functioning along the lines of omnidirectional hedging which is relatively a new concept in the IR discourse. Omnidirectional hedging entails maximisation of strategic space and avoiding entrapment in the great power rivalry through diplomatic, economic and security diversification. Through qualitative analysis, this research observes that the traditional middle powers ─ Japan, India, and Australia ─ are now largely focusing on multilateralism, minilateral alliances, free trade agreements, infrastructure investments, maritime security cooperation and new defence agreements. Such a foreign policy behaviour is paving way for a closely knitted middle-power network in the region to prevent great powers from engaging in direct confrontation which would threaten regional peace and stability.

The changing foreign policy dynamics of GCC States: a study through the lens of positive interdependence

Foreign policy behaviour of the GCC members is changing. The countries are embracing discussion and diplomacy rather than focusing on contention and opposition. They are looking beyond traditional partners and are diversifying their support base within the region as well as outside while expressing interest in being part of multilateral institutions. GCC countries have recognised that securing economic interests is of paramount interest and political leverages and geo-political maneuverings are secondary in the changing world and to that end are engaging with the Asian, African and Latin American economies. Further the countries have understood the significance of non-traditional issues of energy, food, water and environment security along with waste management. The paper is an attempt to study this shift through the lens of positive interdependence. Embracing positive interdependence, the states focus on mutual dependence with an intention to achieve growth and prosperity and propagating one’s national interests without intending to sabotage the interests of the other party.

Articulation of Indonesia's Bebas-Aktif Foreign Policy in Responding Russia-Ukraine Conflict

This study is about Indonesia's foreign policy in responding to the Russian and Ukrainian conflict. The war in Ukraine has attracted wide attention and influenced many country's foreign policy, including Indonesia as one of the middle powers in Asia. The conflict has sharpened the bipolarization between Ukraine supported by Western countries and Russia itself. It presents serious challenges for Indonesia, which has long been known as a neutral and non-aligned country. Under the free-active foreign policy doctrine, Indonesia is facing serious challenges to take a firm stance on the Russian-Ukrainian war and continuing its leadership in the G20 and ASEAN. Therefore, this study seeks to analyze Indonesia's foreign policy behavior and its country's role it has built in dealing with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. By using role theory of foreign policy analysis and qualitative research methods especially textual analysis, this study finds that Indonesia displays three faces of foreign policy toward Russia-Ukraine war. First, steadfast commitment and respect to international law and the UN Charter, especially sovereignty and territorial integrity; Second, articulate free-active foreign policy attitude that integrates two opposing blocks; Third, pursue foreign policy that is advantageous for domestic interests and economic gains.

South Caucasus in the Phase of Russian-Ukrainian War: New Security Challenges and Possible Scenarios for Development

The paper mainly examines the economic, political and military situation in the South Caucasus after the start of Russian-Ukrainian war. In the paper we are focused on the question of what kind of consequences does the Russian-Ukrainian war has on the countries of the South Caucasus. Relying on the analytical-forecasting approach, we also are trying to forecast what developments can be expected in this region. On this regard we especially look onto the facts from Armenia’s perspective. Of course, the discussion of the situation in Georgia and Azerbaijan was also under our great attention, because we also had set a task to compare the processes that took place in the three countries of the region.
 The modernity of the topic can be measured, first of all, by its global political significance: Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to be on the top of world political processes. On the other hand, it is actual when studying political and economic processes in the post-Soviet territory. By and large, as a result, the South Caucasus is a part of the European and Middle Eastern security sphere, or at least has an important role in them. Therefore, the ongoing developments in this region are not local and may also affect the European, Middle Eastern and the processes also in other regions.
 Russian-Ukrainian conflict has affected on foreign policy behavior of the Southern Caucasus countries. The region is now under the turbulence zone, so we are not aware from being faced by new challenges and security issues. Since we have highly evaluated the impact of the conflict on the countries of the region, we have also tried to make certain predictions regarding possible future development scenarios, which could be as recommendations for foreign policy decision making structures of Armenia.

Nepal’s Foreign Policy: Challenges and Prospects

Nepal has undergone tremendous changes since it became republic in 2008. With the promulgation of the new Constitution drafted by the elected people’s representatives in 2015, Nepal has continued to engage with nations beyond India and China. This paper focuses on the foreign policy behavior and strategy of small states in the international system. Further, it explains the behavior and strategies employed by those states by examining several concepts and historic facts and applying them in the context of Nepal. The article states that geo-strategic situation and non-alignment stance of nepal that try to maintain and extend bilateral relations with the immediate neighbors and other actors in the international system, and further integrates them into regional and international frameworks to secure its survival.

Foreign policy and citizens’ ontological security: An experimental approach

Ontological security theory posits that states seek to provide their citizens not just physical but also cognitive security, mostly through routinised foreign policy practices that reinforce notions of the national Self. Several studies established this theoretical assertion at the individual level, using various qualitative methods. This study adds to the literature by taking an experimental approach to provide further empirical support. It develops a novel index for the measurement of foreign policy behaviour’s effect on individual citizens’ ontological security and employs it in a survey experiment. The experiment examines whether Jewish-Israelis experience change in their sense of ontological security due to their state’s deviation from its long-standing offensive–defensive security doctrine. The findings demonstrate that citizens indeed form an attachment to their state’s foreign policy practices and that deviation from them can impair their sense of ontological security. This suggests that seemingly rational, strategically warranted policies might sometimes bear unexpected costs for policymakers.

Tendencje behawioralne w polityce zagranicznej Turcji w okresie rządów Partii Sprawiedliwości i Rozwoju

Behavioral trends in Turkish foreign policy during the rule of the Justice and Development Party Turkey’s foreign policy behavior in a given period can be understood by examining the ruling party and domestic relations, the interests and composition of the governing coalition and prevalent international dynamics. The aim of the article is to show, that paradigmatic shifts in foreign policy and the drivers of Turkey’s quest for autonomous policy space can be understood as an outcome of interrelated transformations at global, regional and domestic levels. After 2010, Turkish foreign policy was marked by a period of „autonomization”, in which the ruling party decided to fill the geopolitical vacuum created in the region after the failure of negotiations with the European Union in the gradual withdrawal of the United States from the local diplomatic chessboard.

Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies

This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.

Explaining Canada’s Unsurprising Response to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, 2022–2023

This study argues that Canada’s foreign policy behavior has remained predictably unchanged in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Historically, Canada’s foreign policy has been directed by external considerations, specifically a liberal international order, multilateralism, key allies, and the United States. These orientations have determined Canadian foreign policy for generations. They guide Canada’s foreign policy decision-making but are sometimes contradictory. In the case of Ukraine in 2022, however, these orientations aligned perfectly, allowing the Justin Trudeau government to participate in international efforts to support Ukraine without controversy. This paper surveys four major external orientations and one domestic orientation before describing the country’s contributions to international efforts to support Ukraine. It concludes with a discussion about the troubling implications of a foreign policy that is tightly linked to external consideration: the costs of exit and the fundamental purpose of Canada’s foreign policy in the first place.