The war in Ukraine, the EU’s geopolitical awakening and implications for the “contested neighbourhood”

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article looks at how the Russian invasion has reshaped the EU's Eastern neighbourhood policy and subsequently how has the new policy affected the strategies of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. We systematically review policy responses to the war of the EU and the countries of the EU-Russia contested neighbourhood and identify new patterns in foreign policy behavior of these states and key domestic policy changes. We specifically highlight the shift in two key attributes of the EU's foreign policy, which has traditionally defined its neighbourhood policy: its relations with Russia and the inclusiveness of the EaP countries in the European project. We make two arguments: first, the crisis and new risks in the region has created a demand and opened a geopolitical dimension to the EU neighbourhood policy, which required Brussels to fill a hard security vacuum in its own policies in the neighbourhood, which invoked an application of new instruments to deter Moscow and support EU's Eastern allies. Second, the crisis contributes to even faster erosion of the post-Soviet space and a new regional fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Finally, the question of sustainability of these changes and their effect on the EU as an actor remains open.