Foreign Exchange Research Articles

The Spillover Effect of US Monetary Policy: A Literature Review

In an era of globalization, the interconnectedness of financial markets means that monetary policy decisions in one country, particularly the United States, can have significant global repercussions. This interconnectedness necessitates a deeper understanding of how US monetary policy influences economic conditions worldwide. This paper reviews the impact of US monetary policy through various channels on advanced and emerging countries differently. The research finds that US monetary policy involves an element of uncertainty. In advanced countries, this uncertainty primarily influences the term premium component of yields, whereas in emerging countries, it affects the expected component of yields. Furthermore, the impact of US monetary policy shocks varies with the business cycle, having a larger effect when growth is weak outside the US. Different channels of spillover include interest rate differentials, exchange rate movements, capital flows, financial market reactions, and changes in risk perception and sentiment. For advanced countries, significant impacts are seen in interest rate spillovers, exchange rate dynamics, financial market volatility, and global trade and economic growth. In emerging countries, the effects are pronounced in exchange rate channels, capital flows, financial stability, term premium, risk perception, and local monetary conditions. Solutions include strengthening financial regulation, diversifying economic structures, building foreign exchange reserves, managing capital flows, improving monetary policy frameworks, fostering regional cooperation, promoting long-term investment, and enhancing data transparency.

Tissue Culture of Oil Palm (Elaeis Guineensis Jacq): Techniques and Applications in Genetic Breeding

Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) has become a leading plantation crop in Indonesia because it can provide employment opportunities and contribute to the country's foreign exchange earnings. The productivity of palm oil always experiences fluctuations. Over the past four years, the highest productivity of palm oil was in 2020, amounting to 48,296.30 tons/ha. Efforts to increase palm oil productivity need to be continuously pursued considering the high consumer demand for oil. One of the efforts to increase palm oil productivity is to cultivate superior seed varieties. The type of superior seedlings can be obtained from tissue culture. The research method used is a qualitative descriptive method with a literature study technique. The purpose of this research is to understand the tissue culture process, the inhibiting and supporting factors of tissue culture, the advantages and disadvantages of tissue culture, and the opportunities and challenges of palm oil tissue culture. The research results show that tissue culture affects palm oil production because the seedlings produced through tissue culture have superior traits, and the supporting factors of the tissue culture technique are the type of media and the addition of appropriate growth regulators (ZPT).

PENGARUH TEKNOLOGI TERHADAP PERKEMBANGAN PASAR VALUTA ASING

Technological advances have significantly affected various economic sectors, including the foreign exchange (forex) market. This study aims to analyze the impact of technological developments on the dynamics and efficiency of the foreign exchange market by using descriptive qualitative methods. The results of the analysis show that the application of technologies such as algorithmic trading, blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), and mobile device-based trading applications have improved accessibility, transaction efficiency, as well as risk management capabilities in forex trading. Moreover, technology has also enabled market participants in emerging economies to participate more inclusively. However, the digitalization of forex trading also presents challenges, including increased market volatility, digital asset risk and cyber threats. The study identifies strategic measures such as diversification of foreign exchange reserves, strengthening financial regulations, and the use of derivative instruments as efforts to manage risks and maintain market stability. With continued optimization of technology, the foreign exchange market can serve as a more stable and efficient economic instrument in supporting international trade activities.

Pendekatan Moneter dalam Analisis Neraca Pembayaran Internasional: Teori dan Aplikasinya

The monetary approach in international balance of payments analysis offers a theoretical framework that emphasizes the role of money markets in determining a country's external balance. This approach is based on the principle that balance of payments imbalances reflect imbalances between the demand and supply of money in domestic and international markets. This article discusses the basic theory of the monetary approach, including the implications of changes in foreign exchange reserves, interest rate movements, and their impact on the exchange rate. In addition, this research explores the empirical application of the monetary approach in various global economic contexts. Case studies show how monetary policy influences balance of payments dynamics, exchange rate stability and capital flows. These findings provide strategic insights for economic policymakers to design policies that support macroeconomic stability while encouraging sustainable growth.

Exploring the Nexus between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns in Nepal: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Background: Investors and policymakers must understand how macroeconomic variables (MEVs) affect stock market behavior to maximize portfolios and maintain economic stability. Hence, it is crucial to establish a nexus between MEVs and stock market returns (SMRs). Objectives: This study seeks to assess the effects of MEV on SMRs in the long and short run. Methods: This paper analyzed the cointegrating relationship between MEVs and SMRs using a time series data set from 1994 to 2023. This study used the ARDL bounds testing approach. Results: The results confirm a cointegrating association between MEVs and SMRs in the Nepalese stock market. The error correction (ECT -1) term is significantly negative, suggesting a persistent correlation between the variables. The study also shows that interest rates negatively affect SMRs over time. Real GDP (LRGDP), inflation (LINFR), and exchange rate (LEXR) have negative but statistically insignificant associations with SMRs. However, the money supply (LMS) positively correlates with SMRs. Conclusion: The study’s findings provide practical advice for policymakers. For instance, lower interest rates increase the appeal of stocks by reducing the opportunity costs of holding bank deposits and credit costs. Therefore, policymakers are advised to maintain lower interest rates to cultivate a more appealing investment environment. Furthermore, policymakers should prioritize regulating inflation and preserving a robust foreign exchange rate to boost investors’ SMRs.

Intercropping Land Kale on Hypopodium Leftover Oil Palm Fronds Pruning

The horticultural consumption of land kale in Indonesia is still quite high due to its complete nutritional content. However, limited cultivation land is an obstacle to the production of land kale. On the other hand, Indonesia has a very large area of oil palm plantations because it is a superior commodity as a foreign exchange earner. But it is unfortunate that the output obtained is only oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB). Therefore, it is necessary to create an integrated agricultural model such as intercropping so that the output obtained is more and profitable economically and environmentally sustainable. Intercropping is a method of agricultural cultivation by planting two or more commodities in the same area to maximise land use and maximise productivity. Intercropping in oil palm is not carried out in producing crops (TM) due to constraints on cultivation land area. However, by using a new agricultural cultivation method, namely cultivation on the hypopodium of the remaining leaf pruning, oil palm producing plants (TM) can still be intercropped. Hypopodium is the tip or base of the leaf that connects to the plant stem. The hypopodium area that is already wide enough in producing plants (TM) can be used as a place for kale plant growth. In addition, the content of organic matter in the hypopodium can be used as a source of nutrients and as an organic substrate. This type of primary research with qualitative methods shows the results that the intercropping method of kale with oil palm on the hypopodium of the remaining pruning of oil palm leaves can be done so that the output out of the farm is more.

MODELING AND FORECASTING OF TOURISM INCOME: THE CASE OF TURKEY

This study aims to identify the optimal forecasting model for predicting Türkiye's tourism income, a crucial factor for economic planning and development. This study employs different forecasting techniques, including the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), the additive and multiplicative Holt-Winters methods, the Exponential Smoothing State Space (ETS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on the loess (STL)-ANN hybrid model and evaluates their performance. The methodology involves analyzing monthly tourism income data from January 2012 to December 2023, incorporating additional economic indicators such as the economic confidence index, number of visitors, consumer price index, industrial production index, and USD exchange rate, which serve as input for ANN models. The findings reveal that ANNs, particularly the model that incorporates tourism income alongside other economic indicators, outperform traditional models with the lowest Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) and Root Mean Squared Scaled Error (RMSSE). Specifically, the ANN model with additional predictors demonstrates the highest forecasting accuracy. These results suggest that advanced machine learning techniques provide superior predictive capabilities compared to traditional linear models. The study underscores the importance of integrating complex models to achieve more accurate forecasting, offering valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners in the tourism sector.

Determinants of Foreign Exchange Reserve of Emerging Economy: Time Series Evidence from Bangladesh

This paper contributes to existing literatures through investigating the elements influencing Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves covering the period from 1972 to 2023. In fact, this study analyzes the impact of several macroeconomic variables, including exports, imports, economic growth, trade balance, remittances, external debt, foreign direct investment (FDI), broad money, real interest rates, exchange rates, and trade openness, using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model on the foreign exchange reserves. The findings demonstrate that while trade balance, real interest rates, and trade openness show negative connections, exports, imports, economic growth, remittances, foreign debt, FDI, and broad money have major positive influence on the reserves. With a R2 value of 0.9877, the model shows a great explanatory power and indicates that the chosen variables almost completely explain the variance in foreign exchange reserves. Without the evidence of heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity, or autocorrelation, diagnostic tests validate the robustness of the model. The results highlight the need of keeping balanced trade policies and supporting favorable conditions for exports, remittances, and FDI to guarantee a steady buildup of foreign exchange reserves, thereby ensuring Bangladesh’s economic resilience and stability.

Study on the Historical Influence of Foreign Exchanges in the Tang Dynasty

As one of the dynasties with the most powerful national strength and wealthy social development in Chinese history, the Tang Dynasty's great and advanced culture drew numerous countries and nations to exchange and exchange. This essay will investigate the goal of international exchanges and their historical impact on the Tang Dynasty. This essay analyses the impact of the tributary system, political reconciliation, and sea trade on foreign exchange in the Tang Dynasty by consulting literature. The development of diplomats from other countries and the Confucian cultural circle in East Asia demonstrated that the Tang Dynasty wielded significant cultural influence in East Asia, bolstering the Tang Dynasty's international standing. The research findings demonstrate that the Tang Dynasty actively engaged in external exchanges, which helped to stabilise the border area and ensure internal stability, promote Tang culture exports outside, and increase the Tang Dynasty's international impact. Tang Dynasty overseas exchanges continue to have a significant impact on the globe today, inspiring the export and transmission of culture, international relations, and commercial and trade exchanges, as well as driving the acceleration and development of the globalisation process.

Research Paper on Role of FDI’s In Balancing the Balance of Payments

The global economy has experienced a significant transformation due to the increased flow of capital across borders. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has emerged as a primary form of international capital transfer, especially in developing economies. FDI involves investments by foreign entities, typically multinational corporations, which result in the creation of new equity or acquisition of control over existing businesses in the host country. This paper explores the role of FDI inflows in shaping the Balance of Payments (BoP) of India, focusing specifically on its impact on the Capital Account. The study covers the period from 1991 to 2015, during which India witnessed substantial liberalization, leading to increased foreign investment. The paper examines how FDI inflows affect India’s foreign exchange reserves, exchange rate stability, and its overall macroeconomic environment. The findings suggest that FDI plays a critical role in strengthening the Capital Account of the BoP, boosting foreign reserves, and supporting India’s financial stability. However, the study also identifies challenges related to the distribution of FDI inflows and their impact on the Current Account. This paper contributes to the understanding of the dynamics between FDI and BoP, providing insights for policymakers on managing FDI inflows for economic growth. Keywords: FDI, Balance of Payments, Capital Account, India, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Exchange Rate, Economic Growth.

Risk and return spillovers among developed and emerging market currencies

We develop a network model capturing the dynamic interactions among foreign exchange (FX) returns and realized risk measures for 20 developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) currencies. We show that DM currencies are more integrated within the network than EM currencies on average and tend to become more dependent on external conditions over time. Spillovers between DMs and EMs evolve more rapidly than spillovers within DMs and within EMs and are a major contributor to overall spillover dynamics. Auxiliary regressions reveal that the net DM-to-EM spillover comoves with global factors known to drive EM capital flows.

Analysis of Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility Based on the GARCH Model

At present, the foreign exchange rate is still an important factor affecting international trade transactions. Since 1990, when the yen first broke through the 150 yen mark, the yen has been depreciating continuously. At the end of April 2024, the yen fell to 158 yen to a dollar. According to research, the Fed's interest rate hike policy has impacted the yen's plunge. This paper takes this event as the starting point. It uses the GARCH model to analyze the financial time series of the dollar-yen exchange rate, to explore its volatility law, to bring certain reference significance to China's monetary policymakers. According to the empirical analysis, this paper concludes that the GARCH (1,1) model can better capture the volatility characteristics of this sequence.

Open Economy Macroeconomics: Developments in Theory and Policy Using the TOPSIS Methodology

Open economy macroeconomics examines the complex interplay between a nation's economic policies and global financial markets. This field of study addresses critical issues such as exchange rate determination, balance of payments, and the effects of trade and capital flows on a country's economic performance. The increased integration of economies through globalization has made it essential to understand how domestic economic policies, such as monetary and fiscal policies, interact with international economic environments. This paper explores the key concepts and models in open economy macroeconomics, including the Mundell-Fleming model, purchasing power parity, and the dynamics of exchange rate regimes. The study of open economy macroeconomics has gained prominence with the growing interconnectedness of global markets. Unlike a closed economy, where all economic transactions occur within national borders, an open economy engages in trade and financial transactions with other countries. This openness introduces new challenges and opportunities for policymakers, as domestic economic conditions are increasingly influenced by external factors such as foreign exchange rates, international trade agreements, and global capital flows. Open economy macroeconomics seeks to understand how these external factors affect key economic variables, such as output, inflation, and employment.The significance of studying open economy macroeconomics lies in its profound implications for both national and global economic stability and growth. As economies become increasingly interconnected, understanding the mechanisms by which international trade, capital flows, and exchange rates influence domestic economies is essential for effective policymaking. This field of study is particularly relevant in today’s world, where financial crises, trade wars, and global economic shocks can have ripple effects across borders, impacting nations' economic well-being regardless of their size or level of development.. Free Trade Agreements, Currency Pegging, Capital Controls, Trade Tariffs, Exchange Rate Floating. GDP Growth Rate (%),Trade Balance (Billion $), Inflation Rate (%),Unemployment Rate (%). The results indicate that Free Trade Agreements achieved the highest rank, while Capital Controls had the lowest rank being attained. The value of the dataset for Corporate Open Economy Macroeconomics according to the topsis Method, Integrated Pest Management achieves the highest ranking.

Pengaruh Fasilitas Wisata dan Harga Terhadap Kepuasaan Pengunjung di Destinasi Wisata Tahura Kabupaten Bandung

Tourism is a sector that plays an important role in increasing Indonesia's foreign exchange. Therefore, it is mandatory for the tourist destination sector to pay attention so that every visitor who has visited a tourist destination feels satisfied after visiting the tourist destination. The aim of this research is to determine the influence of tourist facilities and prices on visitor satisfaction at the Tahura destination, Bandung Regency. The design of this research is quantitative with the population being visitors from the Tahura tourist destination and data collection was obtained through distributing questionnaires using Google Form and distributed to visitors who visited the Tahura tourist destination, Bandung Regency using a purposive sampling technique, with predetermined characteristics. The sample of this research consisted of 100 respondents. The data analysis technique from this research uses the classic assumption test which consists of the normality test, multicollinearity test, heteroscedasticity test, and multiple linear regression. The data in this research was processed with the help of the IBM SPSS Statistics 25 for Windows application. The results of this research show that the variables of tourist facilities and prices have a significant effect on visitor satisfaction. In this research, the price variable has the greatest influence on the visitor satisfaction variable than other variables. It is hoped that this research will be useful for tourist destination managers so that they can maintain and improve tourist facilities. It is hoped that this research will be useful for the surrounding government so that they can pay attention to and improve the facilities and prices at the Tahura destination, Bandung Regency. It is hoped that this research will be useful for the Tourism Industry study program which will research Facilities. Tourism and Prices on Visitor Satisfaction, it is hoped that this research will be useful for researchers to develop tourist facilities in the Tahura destination, Bandung Regency.

Monetary Policy Reactions and Deficit Financing in Nigeria

The study used secondary data which was obtained from the World Bank development indicators and Central Bank Statistical Bulletin between 1981—2022. The Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) was adopted for regression analysis, the variables adopted as independent variables are Domestic debt financing, foreign debt financing, External Reserves, and Exchange rate while real gross domestic product (RGDP) is the dependent variable. The study revealed that both Exchange rate and foreign debt financing have no significant effect to economic growth in Nigeria while Domestic debt financing and external reserves have a significant effect to economic growth. The study therefore concluded that domestic debt financing and external reserves have an unstable effect in the economy (asymmetric effect), this is due to inconsistency in its application in the country. From the research undertaken, we recommend that domestic debt should be channeled into economic activities that will stimulate growth and increase productivity. There should be a deliberate attempt to monitor the usage of domestic debt to avoid capital flight. The government should put a stop on foreign debt financing because it doesn’t have an effect on the nation’s economy. There should be a deliberate plan to increase the external reserves since it serves as the critical channel of financing developmental programmes and augment deficits in most cases.

Pengaruh Kualitas Pelayanan, Citra Merek, Harga, dan Kualitas Produk Terhadap Loyalitas Pelanggan

One of the beverage products that has many fans in Indonesia is coffee. Coffee is one of Indonesia's leading plantation commodities that has an important role, especially as a source of foreign exchange, a provider of employment. Jokopi is one of the coffee shop brands that has a contemporary coffee drinking trend. With the tagline "telling and cultivating". The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of Brand Image, brand image, price and Service Quality simultaneously on customer loyalty. In this study, the research method used is a quantitative research method and in this study there are 30 to 500 samples, in addition, if the study will conduct an analysis with multivariate (correlation or multiple regression), then the number of sample members is at least 10 times the number of variables studied. The results of the test together (simultaneously) show that the variables of Service Quality, Brand Image, Price and Product Quality have an effect on Customer Loyalty, this can be proven by the results of F count 15.729 or a significance value of 0.000 <0.05.

Watershed development - present status and fisheries perspectives in Indian context

India encompasses a rich aquatic biodiversity, hosting vast arrays of freshwater, brackish water, and marine ecosystems. These unique landscapes harbor abundant fisheries resources, constituting primary protein sources and income channels for millions. Fisheries are an essential source of food security, livelihoods, employment generation, recreation, trade, and foreign exchange earnings worldwide. However, over exploitation, pollution, habitat destruction, climate change, invasive species, and other anthropogenic activities threaten fisheries resources' sustainability. Therefore, integrated approaches like watershed management can help restore and maintain aquatic ecosystem health, ensuring sustainable fish production while enhancing social welfare. This article explores the significance of watershed development in conserving fisheries resources and promoting their long-term viability.Watershed development plays a pivotal role in nurturing sustainable aquatic ecosystems and enhancing fisheries production in India. Amid intensified exploitative pressures coupled with changing climatic scenarios, watershed development emerges as an integral intervention toward sustainable fisheries conservation and management.Despite considerable progress made, certain constraints persist, necessitating targeted strategies for optimal outcomes. This article evaluates the current scenario, future possibilities, and viewpoints concerning watershed development vis-a-vis fisheries in India.. KEYWORDS :Watershed Development, Fisheries, India, Status, Prospects, Perspective

Масштабування українського бізнесу на європейський ринок

Based on the analysis of information sources on business scaling, enterprises were categorized by size and, in turn, by the type of activity of the enterprise. Initially, we analyzed information on Ukraine's cooperation with other countries. The analysis of statistics allows you to identify the countries that show the greatest demand for the products or services that your company produces. This will help you focus your marketing efforts and resources on the most profitable areas.Export statistics indicate the existence of trade barriers, such as duties, quotas, technical regulations, etc. We took into account business scaling strategies for international markets and selected scaling variations by content, in turn, we identified: franchising, branches, subsidiary, outsourcing, joint venture. The next step was to study the strategies of successful Ukrainian companies that have entered foreign markets. In particular, the following brands were identified: “Ruslan Baginsky, M-TAC, and Sandora. The factors that directly contributed to this are analyzed and general patterns and trends are identified. A capsule model of business scaling to the European market has been developed, which provides for the entry of a product into the European market with a 100% profit. This model will allow the company to minimize risks, optimize costs, and quickly adapt to changes in the environment. The European market has its own peculiarities when expanding your business, in particular: each EU country has its own laws and regulations governing business activities. This applies to technical regulations, tax legislation, and labor relations. The EU has a strong consumer protection system. This means that companies must be prepared for various types of claims and lawsuits. The creation of such a model will allow entrepreneurs to scale up virtually risk-free, which in turn will increase foreign exchange earnings and demonstrate a certain level of the country. By entering foreign markets, Ukrainian businesses will take a strategic step that will open up new opportunities for growth and development. Given the current factors, this model may well help entrepreneurs to scale up.

Foreign exchange intervention and capital flow measures under external tail risks

Foreign exchange intervention and capital flow measures under external tail risks

"Does Small-Scale Mining Contribute To The Economies Of Developing Countries?" The Case Of Ghana

The impact of small-scale mining in the economic growth and development of many mineral rich countries cannot be over emphasized. However, this has not received the desired attention and focuses over time as most host governments tend to focus more on the large-scale mining companies thereby, neglecting the salient role and contribution of Small-scale miners. This paper focuses on small-scale mining with particular reference to the Ghanaian mining sector which is largely driven by gold and diamonds. Small-scale mining in Ghana has immensely contributed to the GDP of the Ghanaian economy by creating jobs, alleviating poverty and earning foreign exchange revenue for the government. This paper evaluates whether or not small-scale mining contributes to the economy of Ghana.