Food Trade Patterns Research Articles

Revealing the nexus profile of agricultural water–land–food–GHG flows in China

Revealing the nexus between agricultural water, land, and greenhouse gases (GHGs) associated with food trade is important for the harmonious development of agricultural resource elements and the guarantee of food security. In this study, we develop a water-land-food-GHG (WLFG) nexus to portray the virtual water, virtual land, and embodied GHG transfers associated with the food trade considering China’s three major food crops (rice, wheat, and maize) by combing environmentally-extended multi-region input-output model with Penman-Monteith equation, crop coefficient method, and IPCC coefficient method. The WLFG coupling coordination relationship was further explored for proposing policy recommendations on the synergy optimization of WLFG. The results showed source structure similarities between crop water requirements and agricultural GHG, with virtual water, land and embodied GHG flows related to the food trade patterns. In 2017, China's total virtual water, virtual land, and embodied GHG transfer flows were 376.85 billion m3, 88.17 million ha, and 391.89 Mt CO2-eq respectively, increasing by 28.42%, 33.25%, and 55.2% compared to 2007. Overall, China’s average WLFG coupling coordination rises slightly on both supply and demand side. This study provides guidance for the synergistic management and sustainable development of agricultural WLFG nexus system.

Process analysis and mitigation strategies for wetland degradation caused by increasing agricultural water demand: an ecology–economy nexus perspective

BackgroundFarmland expansion has played a major role in wetland degradation in Heilongjiang Province, China in recent decades. Farmland expansion increases the demands for water, thereby affecting wetland water cycles, and promoting the shrinkage of wetland areas and degradation of ecosystem functions. As an open system, agricultural production is limited by both ecological and socioeconomic conditions. However, our understanding of wetland degradation caused by farmland expansion from the perspective of the ecology–economy nexus is limited.MethodsA correlation between farmland expansion and agricultural economic activities was established, and wetland degradation driven by agroeconomic activities was inversely derived using a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) analysis. We developed an ecology–economy nexus framework to explore the ecological process of the area and water demand tradeoffs between wetland degradation and farmland expansion, the economic process of wetland degradation driven by food consumption, and the nexus between the two processes. We finally explored strategies to mitigate wetland degradation due to increased agricultural water demand.ResultsFarmland expansion contributed to 93.76% of the total degraded wetland area. There was a significant negative correlation between wetland area and the water consumption for crop production, but no significant correlation between wetland area and the ecological footprint of croplands. The direct wetland degradation caused by local final demand accounted for 63.02%, while the indirect degradation caused by non-local final demand accounted for 36.98%. Hebei, Shandong, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Shanghai were the top five provinces contributing to indirect wetland degradation in Heilongjiang. Our findings indicated that a mixed scenario combining water footprint reduction per unit yield with food export reduction could maximize wetland restoration while reducing local farmland–wetland competition for water.ConclusionsOur research highlights the effects of economic processes in the agricultural sector on wetland degradation, and showed that the adjustment of food trade patterns can effectively promote wetland restoration.

How taste proximity affects consumer quality valuation of imported varieties: Evidence from the French food sector

AbstractConsumer tastes vary by country and influence food trade patterns. While previous literature highlights different cultural elements as either trade promoters or barriers, divergences in consumer tastes may also generate differences in the perception of the quality of products. As a consequence, consumer taste in destination countries is likely to affect the demand for imported products in a different manner according to the origin and the quality of products imported. Based on firm‐product level data on French exports, this study analyses how differences in taste proximity with French consumers across destination markets affect the export revenues of vertically differentiated varieties. To identify taste proximity, we rely on data gathered from TripAdvisor on the type of cuisine offered in restaurants all over the world. The results of this study suggest that quality of French products is more strongly appreciated and consumers are more willing to spend on high‐quality products in countries with a taste similar to that of French consumers.

Research on Global Grain Trade Network Pattern and Its Driving Factors

Trading systems are essential in promoting global food security. With the growing proportion of global food consumption obtained through international trade, the global food trade pattern has become increasingly complex over recent years. This study constructed a weighted global grain network using the trade data of 196 countries in 2000 and 2018 to explore the structure and evolution based on the complex network theory. We established that the global grain network was scale-free. There was significant heterogeneity among nodes, and the heterogeneity of the out-degree was greater than that of the in-degree. The global grain network has a significant core-periphery structure, with the United States, Japan, Mexico, Egypt, South Korea, and Colombia as the core countries. Thereafter, by applying the quadratic assignment procedure model to explore the driving factors of the global grain network, we established that geographical distance had a positive impact on the food trade patterns in 2000 and 2018. This differs from the classical gravity model theory. Furthermore, grain trade had significant “boundary effects”; economic gaps, resource endowment, and regional free trade agreements had a positive impact on the evolution of the grain trade network, whereas cultural similarity and political differences had a negative impact on the grain trade network pattern.

Evolution of Global Food Trade Patterns and Its Implications for Food Security Based on Complex Network Analysis.

Global food trade is an integral part of the food system, and plays an important role in food security. Based on complex network analyses, this paper analyzed the global food trade network (FTN) and its evolution from 1992 to 2018. The results show that: (1) food trade relations have increased and global FTN is increasingly complex, efficient, and tighter. (2) Global food trade communities have become more stable and the trade network has evolved from “unipolar” to “multipolar”. (3) Over the nearly 30-year period, the core exporting countries have been stable and concentrated, while the core importing countries are relatively dispersed. The increasingly complex food trade network improves food availability and nutritional diversity; however, the food trade system, led by several large countries, has increased the vulnerability of some countries’ food systems and brings about unsafe factors, such as global natural disasters and political instability. It is supposed to establish a food security community to protect the global food trade market, address multiple risks, and promote global food security.

Analysis of Trade Patterns and Duration: Evidence from Food Industry in the OECD countries

This study conducts Kaplan-Meier survival estimates on food trade patterns among the OECD countries and explores whether different survival conditions exist in different t rade patterns of food sub-industries. By applying the extended Cox proportional hazard model, this study examines the effects of consumption on the survival rate for horizontal intra-industry trade pattern at the SITC four-digits level. Our findings show an important policy implication that the stability of horizontal intra-industry trade on the survival duration is driven by consumption in food industry among the OECD countries. Therefore, we suggest that policies should encourage the support of the horizontal intra-industry trade within the food industry to avoid unstable durations of trade in the global supply chain caused by the severe employment adjustments associated with traditional comparative advantage.

Dining out as cultural trade

Perceptions of Anglo-American dominance in movie and music trade motivate restrictions on cultural trade. Yet, the market for another cultural good, food at restaurants, is roughly ten times larger than the markets for music and film. Using TripAdvisor data on restaurant cuisines, along with Euromonitor data on overall and fast-food expenditure, this paper calculates implicit trade patterns in global cuisines for 52 destination countries. We obtain four results. First, the pattern of cuisine trade resembles the “gravity” patterns in physically traded products. Second, after accounting gravity factors, the most popular cuisines are Italian, Japanese, Chinese, Indian, and American. Third, excluding fast food, the largest net exporters of their cuisines are the Italians and the Japanese, while the largest net importers are the USA—with a 2015 deficit of over $140 billion—followed by Brazil, China, and the UK. With fast food included, the US deficit shrinks to $55 billion but remains the largest net importer along with China and, to a lesser extent, the UK and Brazil. Fourth, cuisine trade patterns more closely resemble migration patterns than patterns of food trade or patterns arising from the extent of arable land in origin countries. Cuisine trade patterns run starkly counter to the audiovisual patterns that have motivated concern about Anglo-American cultural dominance.

China’s flexible overseas food strategy: food trade and agricultural investment between Southeast Asia and China in 1990–2015

ABSTRACTUsing the UN Comtrade database and multiple sources of agricultural investment data, this paper outlines the emerging patterns of food trade and agricultural investment between Southeast Asian countries and China. The paper shows that China has adopted a flexible overseas food strategy. First, China has increased food export and shifted its food trade with Southeast Asia from a dependent relationship towards a complementary relationship at the regional level in recent years. Second, China tends to adapt to the existing conditions of food production and trade in Southeast Asian countries instead of fundamentally altering them. Finally, Chinese overseas agricultural investment is less driven by domestic food demand but more oriented for profit making, and this gives it flexibility in diversifying investment. An adequate understanding of China’s flexible food strategy in bilateral and multilateral relationships holds implications for global food security.

The Concept of Caloric Unequal Exchange and Its Relevance for Food System Analysis: The Ecuador Case Study

The impact of food production patterns and food supply upon consumption patterns is usually explained by economies of scale and affordability. Less attention is given to food trade patterns and global insertion of economies affecting dietary changes. This paper contributes to the discussion using the concept of caloric unequal exchange that defines the deterioration of terms of trade in food in units of calories and complements studies on unequal exchange and ecologically unequal exchange. A new perspective to food systems’ analysis is achieved by using this concept. This paper uses the case study of Ecuador to exemplify its potentiality. Exports and imports to and from Ecuador are analyzed for the period 1988 through 2013 in volume, value, and calories, for different groups of products. The conclusion is that Ecuador is increasingly helping to feed the world, at a caloric cost that is decreasing over time. There is a deterioration of the terms of trade of traded food in terms of calories for Ecuador of more than 250% between 1986 and 2013.

Balancing water resource conservation and food security in China

China's economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources, and rich foods will deepen the challenge of sustainably feeding the population and balancing agricultural and environmental policies. We combine a hydrologic model with an economic model to project China's future food trade patterns and embedded water resources by 2030 and to analyze the effects of targeted irrigation reductions on this system, notably on national agricultural water consumption and food self-sufficiency. We simulate interprovincial and international food trade with a general equilibrium welfare model and a linear programming optimization, and we obtain province-level estimates of commodities' virtual water content with a hydrologic model. We find that reducing irrigated land in regions highly dependent on scarce river flow and nonrenewable groundwater resources, such as Inner Mongolia and the greater Beijing area, can improve the efficiency of agriculture and trade regarding water resources. It can also avoid significant consumption of irrigation water across China (up to 14.8 km(3)/y, reduction by 14%), while incurring relatively small decreases in national food self-sufficiency (e.g., by 3% for wheat). Other researchers found that a national, rather than local, water policy would have similar effects on food production but would only reduce irrigation water consumption by 5%.

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF POLICY RESTRICTIONS ON WATER WITHDRAWALS FROM SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND SOURCES

The appropriation of water for economic activities is limited by regional surface and underground endowments, and symptoms of environmentally unsustainable withdrawals are already visible in many regions of the world. In this paper we investigate the economic implications of water policy imposing source- and region-specific restrictions on water withdrawals taking the Mexican economy as a case study. We use an inter-regional input–output model of Mexico's hydro-economic regions to allocate production subject to the availability of water and other factors of production. Water sustainability requires a reduction of 7.5 km3/yr of groundwater withdrawals, which is compensated by an increase of 3.4 km3/yr of surface water, an expansion onto an additional 1.4 million hectares of rainfed land, and modifications in subnational patterns of food trade. This framework for evaluating scenarios describing sustainability-oriented water policies is readily applicable to other regions.

Feeding humanity through global food trade

AbstractThe recent intensification of international trade has led to a globalization of food commodities and to an increased disconnection between human populations and the land and water resources that support them through crop and livestock production. Several countries are not self‐sufficient and depend on imports from other regions. Despite the recognized importance of the role of trade in global and regional food security, the societal reliance on domestic production and international trade remains poorly quantified. Here we investigate the global patterns of food trade and evaluate the dependency of food security on imports. We investigate the relationship existing between the trade of food calories and the virtual transfer of water used for their production. We show how the amount of food calories traded in the international market has more than doubled between 1986 and 2009, while the number of links in the trade network has increased by more than 50%. Likewise, global food production has increased by more than 50% in the same period, providing an amount of food that is overall sufficient to support the global population at a rate of 2700–3000 kcal per person per day. About 23% of the food produced for human consumption is traded internationally. The water use efficiency of food trade (i.e., food calories produced per unit volume of water used) has declined in the last few decades. The water use efficiency of food production overall increases with the countries' affluence; this trend is likely due to the use of more advanced technology.

Aflatoxin Regulations in a Network of Global Maize Trade

Worldwide, food supplies often contain unavoidable contaminants, many of which adversely affect health and hence are subject to regulations of maximum tolerable levels in food. These regulations differ from nation to nation, and may affect patterns of food trade. We soughtto determine whether there is an association between nations' food safety regulations and global food trade patterns, with implications for public health and policymaking. We developed a network model of maize trade around the world. From maize import/export data for 217 nations from 2000–2009, we calculated basic statistics on volumes of trade; then examined how regulations of aflatoxin, a common contaminant of maize, are similar or different between pairs of nations engaging in significant amounts of maize trade. Globally, market segregation appears to occur among clusters of nations. The United States is at the center of one cluster; European countries make up another cluster with hardly any maize trade with the US; and Argentina, Brazil, and China export maize all over the world. Pairs of nations trading large amounts of maize have very similar aflatoxin regulations: nations with strict standards tend to trade maize with each other, while nations with more relaxed standards tend to trade maize with each other. Rarely among the top pairs of maize-trading nations do total aflatoxin standards (standards based on the sum of the levels of aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2) differ by more than 5 µg/kg. These results suggest that, globally, separate maize trading communities emerge; and nations tend to trade with other nations that have very similar food safety standards.

The institutional determinants of bilateral Agricultural and food trade

The paper investigates the effects of the institutional determinants on trade in agricultural and food products among the OECD countries using a gravity model approach. We focus on the impact of the quality of governance and the similarity of institutions in explaining variation in bilateral agricultural and food trade patterns. Results confirmed the separate effects for the institutional similarity and the institutional quality on trade patterns. The institutional similarity has positive and significant impact on trade in a similar institutional framework for agricultural, but less for food products. The institutional quality has significant positive impact on trade in both agricultural and food products for importing countries.

Water scarcity and food trade in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries

This study investigates food trade patterns in relation to water resources availability in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMED). Examinations show that most of these countries have a high dependence on the import of water intensive crops – cereal, vegetable oil and sugar, in the domestic food supply. The region as a whole is marginally a net exporter of fruits and vegetables, while variations are substantial across countries. Multi-variable regression analyses show that intensification of water scarcity is an important factor in explaining the increase in food import in the SEMED countries during the past two decades. It also finds that while GDP per capita has a strong influence on the level of food import in a country, its impact on changes in the import during the same period is rather modest. No significant relationship is found between the trade of fruits and vegetables and water resources availability. The projection on food import with respect to the decline in per capita water resources availability results in an increase of 40%, 39% and 14%, respectively, for cereal, vegetable oil and sugar by 2020 in the region, holding other factors constant. The European Union (EU) is the major food trade partner of the SEMED countries, except for cereal. About 70% of the fruit export and 55% of the vegetable export of the region currently go to the EU market. Expanding the export of fruits and vegetables is conducive to improving the value of water use in the SEMED countries. However, the expansion is constrained partly by the barriers in the destination markets, notably the EU.

Food Safety and Trade: Winners and Losers in a Non-Harmonized World

Food safety and the trade-off between precaution and increased agricultural exports are at the forefront of policy debate. Moreover, how international standards are set for food safety, can have a profound effect on export prospects for the least developed countries. This study examines the impact of adopting international food safety standards and harmonization of standards on global food trade patterns. The paper estimates the effect of aflatoxin standards in 15 importing (4 developing) countries on expor ts from 31 (21 developing ) countries. We estimate that world exports would rise by $38.8 billion if an international standard (Codex) were adopted, compared to the current divergent national standards in place.

Polycentric Integrated Assessment

Transitions towards sustainability will require major changes in today’s socio-economic systems. Such changes cannot be brought about by conventional policy measures. We advocate a new approach of a polycentric understanding of policy making that invokes instances of social learning at different levels of societal organization. The notion of polycentric involves the integration of different levels of human choice and geographical domains. The spatial component involves the sequence local – regional – national – global. It involves the combination of different types of human choice at different levels of societal organization (e.g., legal regulations, taxes, subsidies, local initiatives). Trying to understand what is the impact of dealing with diverse ‘‘global change phenomena’’ at diverse levels of organization will require new approaches to deal with human agency. Agent based modeling and its application in participatory settings is a novel promising approach to deal with such choice problems [1]. The importance of such scaling issues are explored for the problem of climate change and water resource management. Whereas water issues have primarily been approached from a regional, even local perspective, the climate problem has been addressed in the first place at the global scale with a global scientific and policy process (IPCC, Kyoto protocol). Regarding climate change one has increasingly recognized the importance of addressing the topic at the regional scale. Most choices will be made at the regional scale and will invoke short-term decisions that are not directly related to climate change. Regarding water resource management, patterns of regional water scarcity may be compensated by complementary patterns of food trade leading to major transfers of virtual water at the global scale. In both cases the coupling of different scales in space, organization and time poses major challenges for integrated assessment.