Food System Model Research Articles

A model for sustainable development: Advancing digital food retailing

The technological revolution has driven food retail towards self-service technologies (SSTs). The supermarket concept thrived due to consumer convenience and direct food access. This qualitative study explored the modernization of food retail through new technologies, focusing on Canadian stakeholders’ perceptions. Using a grounded theory approach, it aimed to create a sustainable digital food system model addressing social and moral food access aspects. Findings revealed that digitalization in food retail is driven by economic motives and stakeholders’ desire for collaboration and partnership to support food access.

Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?

With rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply–demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia’s food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges.

A nutritional modelling framework for inclusion in a Norwegian food system model

The aim of this study was to apply a comprehensive mathematical model designed to assess the current and future availability of food, as well as the resulting nutrient availability and intake, in the context of the Norwegian population. The model explores various scenarios, including self-sufficiency levels for food supply and impacts on nutrition recommendations. A food mass balance charting production, import, export, feed, seed, and consumer allocation in the Norwegian food system provided insights into the nutrients available to the population. The analysis included a comparison with two versions of the Nordic Nutrient Recommendations (NNR)1, with the latest version recommending substantial changes in food consumption compared to current dietary patterns in Norway. The nutrient analysis compared the food mass to Matvaretabellen2 and was supplemented with data from the United Nations World Population Prospects3 and the Food and Agriculture Organisation/World Health Organisation/United Nations4 report to ensure comprehensive nutrient analysis. Micronutrient gaps were observed in Iodine (94% of the target intake) and Vitamin D (46% of the target intake), while saturated-fatty acids slightly exceeded the recommended requirements (107% of the upper limit) based on the current baseline scenario. The updated NNR4 recommends changes to specific food categories, namely fruits, vegetables, nuts, and seeds. A secondary scenario testing compared against the updated NNR found that increasing the availability of the supply of these groups does not result in any new nutrient gaps, demonstrating the feasibility of addressing the issue on a national supply basis. These approach offers a mathematical-modelling based tool that can be used to provide information for a national food system. Leveraging the model’s capacity to simulate various scenarios, informed decisions to optimise self-sufficiency levels and align food supply with recommended nutritional guidelines can be made. To improve the model, higher data resolution and clearer categorisation of food groups are required which can then be linked into a more complete national food system. The mathematical model presented in this study provides a framework for understanding of food and nutrient availability in Norway. By identifying critical nutrient gaps and potential solutions, this research contributes knowledge for a healthier and sustainable food future for the nation.

Land-free bioenergy from circular agroecology—a diverse option space and trade-offs

Bioenergy from energy crops is a source of negative emissions and carbon-neutral fuels in many 1.5/2 ∘C IPCC pathways. This may compete with other land uses. In contrast, ancillary biomass like by-products and waste is not primarily grown for energy and thus without land/food/feed competition. Here, we examine the availability and environmental impacts of ancillary bioenergy from agricultural sources under 190 circular agroecological strategies using the global food-system model SOLm for the year 2050. We find that there is a diverse option space for the future food and energy system to meet both global warming targets (1.5 ∘C) and food system sustainability (medium to highly organic) – a similar range of ancillary bioenergy global potential (55–65 EJ)from very different food systems (50%–75% organic agriculture and various levels of waste and concentrate feeding reduction). We find three trade-offs between food system sustainability and ancillary bioenergy provision. First, there is a clear trade-off between nutrient recycling and negative emissions potential. 1.4–2.6 GTCO2eq of negative emissions supplied through ancillary bioenergy with carbon capture and storage comes at the cost of nutrient deficits and resulting incompatibility with even a medium degree of organic farming. Second, reducing feed from croplands increases the ancillary bioenergy production with low shares of organic agriculture and reduces it for high shares. Third, food waste reduction reduces ancillary bioenergy provision. Hence, the sustainable transformation of the food system towards a less animal-based diet and waste reduction may conflict with a higher ancillary bioenergy provision, especially when the organic share is high as well. The policy implication of our results is that ancillary bioenergy can provide a similar range of future bioenergy as foreseen in IPCC AR6 illustrative pathways (±10% ) without additional land use or compromising food availability. However, higher ancillary bioenergy provision or additional negative emissions compete with food system sustainability; hence, we recommend policymakers consider aligning energy system planning with the compatibility of sustainable food systems simultaneously.

Regional economic assessment of a novel place-based model for sustainable food systems

Several actions from both the environmental and human viewpoints have already been made to meet the sustainability goals targeted at food systems. Still, new place-based ideas to improve sustainability are needed. Agroecological symbiosis (AES), a novel food system model, is an example of a suggested system-level change to attain sustainability targets; it is a symbiosis of food production and processing using renewable energy that uses its own feedstock. AES has already been found advantageous from the ecological and biophysical viewpoints, but a regional economic evaluation of the model is still lacking. Thus, the aim of our paper is to assess the regional economic impact of a possible systemic change in the food system using the network of agroecological symbiosis (NAES) as an example. We applied scenarios representing different ways of moving towards envisioned NAES models in Mäntsälä, Finland, and a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the regional economic impact. According to our results, both regional economy and employment would increase, and the regional production base would diversify with NAES implementation applied to the region, but the extent of the benefits varies between scenarios. The scenario that includes change in both public and private food demand, production of bioenergy and utilization of by-products would cause the largest impacts. However, realizing NAES requires investments that may influence the actual implementation of such models. Nonetheless, a change towards NAES can promote an economically and spatially just transition to sustainability, as NAES seems to be economically most beneficial for rural areas.

Analysis of global nutrient gaps and their potential to be closed through redistribution and increased supply.

Global food systems are crucial for sustaining life on Earth. Although estimates suggest that the current production system can provide enough food and nutrients for everyone, equitable distribution remains challenging. Understanding global nutrient distribution is vital for addressing disparities and creating effective solutions for the present and future. This study analyzes global nutrient supply changes to address inadequacies in certain populations using the existing DELTA Model®, which uses aggregates of global food production to estimate nutrient adequacy. By examining the 2020 global food commodity and nutrient distribution, we project future food production in 2050 needs to ensure global adequate nutrition. Our findings reveal that while some nutrients appear to be adequately supplied on a global scale, many countries face national insufficiencies (% supply below the population reference intake) in essential vitamins and minerals, such as vitamins A, B12, B2, potassium, and iron. Closing these gaps will require significant increases in nutrient supply. For example, despite global protein supply surpassing basic needs for the 2050 population, significant shortages persist in many countries due to distribution variations. A 1% increase in global protein supply, specifically targeting countries with insufficiencies, could address the observed 2020 gaps. However, without consumption pattern changes, a 26% increase in global protein production is required by 2050 due to population growth. In this study, a methodology was developed, applying multi-decade linear convergence to sufficiency values at the country level. This approach facilitates a more realistic assessment of future needs within global food system models, such as the DELTA Model®, transitioning from idealized production scenarios to realistic projections. In summary, our study emphasizes understanding global nutrient distribution and adjusting minimum global nutrient supply targets to tackle country-level inequality. Incorporating these insights into global food balance models can improve projections and guide policy decisions for sustainable, healthy diets worldwide.

A cost-consequence analysis of a menu intervention in early childhood education and care

Abstract Achieving a more climate-friendly, healthy, and sustainable food system that follows the principles of the green economy requires a revision of the current practices in Finland. The early childhood education and care (ECEC) provides a potentially fruitful platform for a systemic change. This study assessed the costs and consequences of a menu intervention as part of the FoodStep-project that aims to develop a novel food system model in ECEC. A randomized controlled study was carried out in 23 ECEC centers to investigate the health, climate, and economic impacts of a novel food system model that was co-created together with the municipality decision makers and professionals in food catering and ECEC. A menu-level cost-consequence analysis was performed to summarize information on the costs and the several essential consequences. Bottom-up micro-costing using data from municipal food services was applied to assess the costs. Differences in nutritional supply in relation to national ECEC meal recommendations and climate impact between existing and new diets were assessed. According to preliminary results, the moderate menu modifications resulted in a slight decrease in mean daily meal costs (breakfast, lunch, snack). A substantial increase in the supply of vegetables, legumes, and poultry was observed, while the servings of red meat decreased notably. New diets did not remove the observed imbalances in energy supply from different sources at the baseline nor the excess supply of salt, however, the overall energy supply was found to be sufficient within both menus. Menu changes resulted in a notable decrease in the unfavorable climate impacts compared with the baseline menus. The implemented changes improved the dietary quality of the menus and decreased the negative climate impact with a modest decrease in costs. Despite the promising results, further analysis of the intervention's cost-effectiveness is required to assess the potential of the novel food system model. Key messages • The implemented changes improved the dietary quality of the menus and decreased the negative climate impact with a modest decrease in costs. • The intervention shows potential for a wider application with the aim of achieving a more climate-friendly, healthy, and sustainable food system.

Model-based scenarios for achieving net negative emissions in the food system

Most climate mitigation scenarios point to a combination of GHG emission reductions and CO2removal for avoiding the most dangerous climate change impacts this century. The global food system is responsible for ~1/3 of GHG emissions and thus plays an important role in reaching emission targets. Consumers, technology innovation, industry, and agricultural practices offer various degrees of opportunity to reduce emissions and remove CO2. However, a question remains as to whether food system transformation can achieve net negative emissions (i.e., where GHG sinks exceed sources sector wide) and what the capacity of the different levers may be. We use a global food system model to explore the influence of consumer choice, climate-smart agro-industrial technologies, and food waste reductions for achieving net negative emissions for the year 2050. We analyze an array of scenarios under the conditions of full yield gap closures and caloric demands in a world with 10 billion people. Our results reveal a high-end capacity of 33 gigatonnes of net negative emissions per annum via complete food system transformation, which assumes full global deployment of behavioral-, management- and technology-based interventions. The most promising technologies for achieving net negative emissions include hydrogen-powered fertilizer production, livestock feeds, organic and inorganic soil amendments, agroforestry, and sustainable seafood harvesting practices. On the consumer side, adopting flexitarian diets cannot achieve full decarbonization of the food system but has the potential to increase the magnitude of net negative emissions when combined with technology scale-up. GHG reductions ascribed to a mixture of technology deployment and dietary shifts emerge for many different countries, with areas of high ruminant production and non-intensive agricultural systems showing the greatest per capita benefits. This analysis highlights potential for future food systems to achieve net negative emissions using multifaceted “cradle-to-grave” and “land-to-sea” emission reduction strategies that embrace emerging climate-smart agro-industrial technologies.

Turn‐key research in food processing and manufacturing for reducing the impact of climate change

SummaryThis study addresses the critical need to report original and current findings on the global food system's ability to meet the growing natural resource demands of an estimated 9 billion global population. The objective is to provide guidance for researchers in developing strategies to reduce climate change risks in the food and beverage supply. To achieve this, we propose integrating innovative industry insights and digital applications into existing food system models as industrial demonstrators. Our research encompasses six impactful themes, demonstrating effective delivery methodologies. We highlight that human‐centred activities and practices, often overlooked in sustainability assessments, hinder improved security and sustainability in the food system. Through our work, we showcase how smarter food production processes, along with active citizen engagement, can achieve desired outcomes outlined in frameworks, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. A crucial aspect is the development of Internet of Things (IoT) platforms, integrating workforce practices into manufacturing activities, and driving the necessary cultural changes for a sustainable food system. This study illuminates challenges faced by the global food system and provides actionable insights and methodologies to guide researchers and industry stakeholders in creating a more sustainable and secure future for food production and consumption.

Global Challenges and Barriers to Sustainable Economic Growth in the Agribusiness Sector

The paper presents four main megatrends of global economic development: 1) changes in value chains, 2) development of a new food system model, 3) redistribution of value chains in the agribusiness sector, 4) growing influence of large companies and individual countries on the global agrifood system. The aim of the paper is to investigate the macroeconomic global and national challenges of agro-industrial development that affect the sustainable development of the sector. Based on these megatrends and using a dialectical method, the authors have considered the main global and national challenges in agricultural development. They highlighted the following: demographic growth and hunger; resource scarcity and the crisis of the AIS 3.0 model; ethical risks and limitations; natural and climatic changes; recycling, recycling and valorisation of waste; political instability; challenges of innovative development. It is shown that identification of the main challenges facing the development of domestic agribusiness sector is the primary basis for the formulation of strategic development objectives of the agrarian sector. The global challenges identified in the paper represent the basis for the development of economic policy in the agribusiness sector, including the Russian agrifood policy, the development of quality formal and informal rules and institutions that support the economic growth of the agribusiness sector, and also allow risk-oriented approaching to agricultural development in different territories.

White Clover (Trifolium repens L.) Cultivation as a Means of Soil Regeneration and Pursuit of a Sustainable Food System Model

Background: Currently, in the face of constant climate change and the development of the mining industry, recovering soils degraded by industry for agricultural production and ensuring more food security for the world has become more difficult. Soil contamination is of particular concern as it affects not only human health but also vegetation growth and the biological environment. The aim: The aim of our research is to develop an appropriate cultivation technology in the area of former and present oil extraction areas and monitor their recovery for agricultural purposes and, thus, for food production. Methods: Experimental, descriptive, laboratory, and comparative methods were used. Results: A significantly decreased content of PAHs in the tested soil under the influence of the “Green technology” was observed just in the third year of the research. Eight years after the introduction of “green technology”, the sum of PAHs in the soil degraded by the oil extraction industry was more than 2-fold reduced. Therefore, there is a need to develop a nature-friendly and cost-effective method of removing and minimizing the effects of soil contamination by oil and its products. Conclusions: T. repens turned out to be a species that significantly prevents the degradation of the agricultural environment and restores soil for agricultural use, consequently encouraging the production of food safe for humans. The immeasurable effect of the use of “Green technology” was to ensure the biodiversity of the grasslands and to return the sources of natural nitrogen bound by bacteria of the genus Rhizobium in coexistence with plants from the Fabaceae family.

O papel da agricultura urbana e periurbana na segurança alimentar global do pós-guerra à crise da covid-19: novas perspectivas em justiça alimentar, saúde global e sustentabilidade,

Abstract The current global syndemic, amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic, highlights the collapse of current food systems. Urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) initiatives have been recognised as strategies of opposition to the dominant food system model based on their multiple positive impacts. Thus, the aim of this article is to discuss the evolution of the concept of food and nutrition security (FNS) at the international level from its proposition (in the post-World War II period) to the COVID-19 crisis, understanding the contributions of UPA in this agenda. To this end, the document is based on a critical literature review. The FNS field has evolved, and different dimensions have been included in its characterisation; however, institutional responses are concentrated in times of crises, whose impacts affect it and favour the maintenance of globalised and unsustainable food systems. The UPA practices, on the other hand, appear with peaks of rise and decline, as their contributions gain new contours, evolving along with the FNS agenda. With a view to broadening and adding to the current discussions on FNSand UPA, we finally discuss the need to incorporate the concepts of justice, global health, and a multidimensional view on sustainability.

O20 Food System Models for Promoting Food Security, Diet Quality, and Health Among Low-Income Populations: A Systematic Review

O20 Food System Models for Promoting Food Security, Diet Quality, and Health Among Low-Income Populations: A Systematic Review

Sustainable eating behavior

With the growing impact of agriculture and modern food processing on the natural environment and growing concerns about all aspects of their sustainability, urgent solutions are required to promote healthy, low-impact diets. Sustainable diets are those with low environmental impact and high availability that ensure food and nutritional security. A comprehensive overview of different approaches to the analysis of sustainable eating behavior is provided. It is argued that preserving the environment is critical, including in designing programs to improve health, address inequalities in affordability, food access and availability in food system models. However, dietary advice and food policy should not be based solely on the environmental aspect of sustainability and should be carefully formulated. Economy, culture and other sociological factors should be taken into account in appropriate policies when planning ways to provide adequate nutrition to the population. It is emphasized that building sustainable food systems that support healthy communities requires a multidimensional, interdisciplinary approach. A sustainable healthy diet is based on improving the energy balance and changing the diet towards a predominantly plant-based diet, which is in line with the data on healthy eating. Updating national guidelines to reflect the latest data on healthy diets may in itself be important for improving health and reducing environmental impact, and may not only clearly define but expand the criteria for sustainability. Key principles of environmental sustainability and well-being are applied in shaping a national sustainable food strategy and are directly related to food production and consumption. To implement an integrated health and environment modeling framework, it is necessary to take different approaches to sustainable nutrition, motivating environmental, food security and public health goals. To develop a methodology for assessing indicators of sustainable nutrition, it is important to simultaneously take into account all aspects: nutritional value of products, indicators of environmental impact, availability of products, climatic, geographic and national characteristics. This methodology will allow to make competent decisions in the field of food production and consumption, will help to minimize the negative impact on the natural environment through sustainable eating behavior.

Food Systems based on Life Cycle Assessment

The food system is a complex social system. At present, international studies on food security evaluation indicators are mainly at the level of quantitative security, and even after including quality security, ecological and market security, they are only analyzed at the national macro level, and cannot be compared with other major international food producing and consuming countries. Therefore, the construction of a complete food system model is of great practical research interest. We establish the current food system with efficiency and profitability as priorities. Considering that food cannot be completely separated from other agricultural production, and that defining strict geographical areas is also its difficult, we selected three-level indicators around the boundaries of the food system, such as factors such as import and export of agricultural products, based on the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) analysis method. Regarding the optimization of the food system with the priority of equity and sustainability, we select two developed countries, the United Kingdom and the United States, and two developing countries, China and India.

Characterization, Bioactivity and Application of Chitosan-Based Nanoparticles in a Food Emulsion Model

In this study, chitosan nanoparticles (CNPs) were prepared by the ionic gelation technique with tripolyphosphate (TPP), and the effect of CNP composition and physicochemical characteristics were evaluated. After the synthesis optimization, CNPs were used as carriers for a fish protein hydrolysate (FPH) with bioactive properties (CNPH). The physicochemical characteristics, antioxidant capacity and antimicrobial, antihypertensive and emulsifier properties of unloaded and loaded CNPs in a food system model were studied. CNPH showed a uniform particle distribution, size ~200 nm, high stability (zeta potential around 30 mV), radical scavenging activity and increased antimicrobial activity against Staphylococcus aureus, Shigella sonnei and Aeromonas hydrophila. Additionally, CNPH showed an angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE)-inhibitory activity of 63.6% and, when added to a food emulsion model, this system containing CNPs, with or without FHP, exhibited improved food emulsion stability. Thus, CNPs were able to carry the FPH while maintaining their bioactive properties and can be an alternative to the delivery of bioactive peptides with potential as an emulsion stabilizer for food applications.

Research on optimal Modeling of Food system based on data potential Distribution Mining and quantitative Analysis

The current world food system gives priority to efficiency and profitability, creating some environmental and inequality problems in the world. In order to re-optimize our food system, we have developed a food system model to adjust the efficiency, profitability, fairness and sustainability of the food system. First of all, we describe the positive and negative effects of food systems optimized for fairness and sustainability, respectively. We have established the index system, and on the basis of the existing data, we use the grey prediction and fitting method to obtain the future data of each index. After that, we divide the previous 12 indicators into benefit category and cost category, and use entropy method to get the weight of indicators that affect benefit and cost each year. We use the “scale factor” method to quantify indicators that are difficult to measure, build models to calculate cost and benefit priorities for changing the world food system, and chart changes that benefit cost ratios in different years.

Library Considerations for the Colonial Impacts of Indigenous Cookbook Publishing


 
 
 
 According to Natifs (North American Traditional Indigenous Food Systems), the first action in understanding the Foundations of an Indigenous Food System Model is the “Removal of Colonized Thought.” food sovereignty, physical and spiritual connection to land, and sustainable food practices are interlocked with decolonial action. Considering Traditional Knowledge (TK), as intellectual property, what does it mean for libraries to collect books containing TK, such as cookbooks written by Indigenous authors, published by Indigenous publishers or otherwise dealing with Indigenous Food Systems? Mindful of the colonial impacts on cookbook publishing in Canada, the author proposes a 4-part framework for libraries when acquiring or weeding Indigenous cookbooks to and from their collections. Used as a tool, the framework promotes the stewardship of collections (and metadata) that do not perpetuate colonial violence through language and Eurocentrism, but champion Indigenous authors, publishers, and content. Written from the position of queer-settler, the essay provides examples of published works that meet the criteria of the framework, celebrating Indigenous Food Systems that predate librarianship’s colonial classification. Through personal narrative, the author demonstrates how the offerings of such texts can become integrated into a personal stewardship of the teachings being shared that directly informs the case for equitable collections management.
 
 
 

UN Food Systems Summit 2021: Dismantling Democracy and Resetting Corporate Control of Food Systems

This article analyzes the development and organization of the United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), which is being convened by UN Secretary General António Guterres in late 2021. Although few people will dispute that global food systems need transformation, it has become clear that the Summit is instead an effort by a powerful alliance of multinational corporations, philanthropies, and export-oriented countries to subvert multilateral institutions of food governance and capture the global narrative of “food systems transformation.” This article places the upcoming Summit in the context of previous world food summits and analyzes concerns that have been voiced by many within civil society. It elaborates how the current structure and forms of participant recruitment and public engagement lack basic transparency and accountability, fail to address significant conflicts of interest, and ignore human rights. As the COVID-19 pandemic illuminates the structural vulnerabilities of the neoliberal model of food systems and the consequences of climate change for food production, a high-level commitment to equitable and sustainable food systems is needed now more than ever. However, the authors suggest that the UNFSS instead seems to follow a trajectory in which efforts to govern global food systems in the public interest has been subverted to maintain colonial and corporate forms of control.

Research on Model Optimization of Food system Dynamics based on SD-SOP

With the development of productive forces and the existence of an effective food system, the problem of world hunger is gradually being solved. However, on the one hand, 821 million people in the world are still malnourished, and on the other hand, the waste of food is shocking. The comparison of these two situations shows that the current food system is seriously unfair. With the development at the expense of the natural environment, there is also uncertainty about whether people can enjoy food in a sustainable, healthy and safe way. Therefore, our group was asked to do some optimization research on the food system. In order to better simulate the operation of the food system. First of all, we design a food system model based on the system dynamics model, which includes four subsystems: economy and trade, environmental health, social production and politics. and the basic operation system of the system is formed on the basis of many variables in these four fields. Then, based on the variables in the grain system, we summarize four aspects of measuring the characteristics of the grain system, namely, profitability, efficiency, fairness and sustainability, and summarize 11 quantifiable evaluation system indicators. Then, the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight and evaluation function of each index in the comprehensive evaluation system. Finally, using the goal programming model, taking the fairness and sustainability indicators as constraints, the minimum value of the system comprehensive evaluation function is used to optimize the food system dynamics model. After optimization, we get the final SD-SOP model and determine that China’s optimized grain system will be realized in 2030.