Fluctuations In Inflation Rates Research Articles

Determinants of Inflation Rate Fluctuations in Five ASEAN Nations

This paper examines the key relationships between independent variables and inflation fluctuations in the ASEAN-5 countries, which include Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. Using annual data from 2001 to 2020, a static panel data regression model is employed. The empirical results reveal that at least two independent variables significantly impact inflation rates in these five ASEAN nations. Specifically, the unemployment rate has a significant negative correlation with inflation fluctuations, while economic growth shows a significant positive correlation. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into how exchange rate determinants influence inflation fluctuations, highlighting the importance of balanced policies to address the interactions between unemployment, economic growth, and inflation.

Monetary policy reaction function: A Bayesian analysis for the BRICS.

This study estimates the monetary policy reaction function (MPRF) in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework using Bayesian analysis for the emerging economies. DSGE models are suitable for the policy analysis because of their simplicity and prominent role of forward-looking variables. This is a pioneer study investigating the combined effects of credit spreads, fiscal imbalances, and monetary autonomy on interest rates for BRICS member countries. Using real data for the period 1970-2021, the posterior estimates confirm that both credit spread and fiscal imbalance significantly contribute to fluctuations in output, inflation, and interest rates in all the sample economies. The estimates show that fluctuations in the inflation rate are due to supply shocks. The empirical estimates also reveal that fiscal imbalances shock significantly affect output in Brazil, India, and South Africa, whereas, based on real data inflation and interest rate are significantly affected by fiscal imbalance shocks in China and South Africa. Yet, the findings suggest that the effects of various shocks on output and interest rates vary across countries.

The Inflation Rate and the Prices of Building Materials in Benin City

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the inflation rate and the price of building materials in Benin City to aid in mitigating the adverse effects of the inflation rate on the construction industry. The trend in the variables from 2017 to 2023 was investigated, and their relationship was assessed and determined using Spearman’s correlation and Regression analysis. Data on the inflation rate was collated from the Central Bank of Nigeria, while prices of the selected building materials were obtained from market surveys. Findings revealed that the inflation rate had the highest value in 2023, and the prices of the chosen building materials had an upward trend from 2017 to 2023. The yearly change in the variables revealed that a percentage increase in the inflation rate produced the highest increase of 3.34% in the price of 1.5mm single-coil cable and the lowest increase of 0.93% in the price of Granite. Correlation analysis indicated that the prices of the building materials had a direct relationship and an inverse relationship with the inflation rate. Regression analysis showed that for every unit increase in the inflation rate, the price of Granite would experience the highest increase by ₦5693. In contrast, the price of Sandcrete block would experience the lowest increase by ₦10. It was recommended that the Government provide an enabling environment that will promote the local production of building materials to reduce dependency on imports and the effect of inflation rate fluctuations.

The COVID-19 Pandemic, Rising Inflation, and Their Influence on Dining Out Frequency and Spending

High intake of food away from home is associated with poor diet quality. This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic period and Food Away from Home (FAFH) inflation rate fluctuations influenced dining out behaviors. Approximately 2800 individuals in Texas reported household weekly dining out frequency and spending. Responses completed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (2019 to early 2020) were compared to the post-COVID-19 period (2021 through mid-2022). Multivariate analysis with interaction terms was used to test study hypotheses. From the COVID-19 period (before vs. after), the unadjusted frequency of dining out increased from 3.4 times per week to 3.5 times per week, while the amount spent on dining out increased from $63.90 to $82.20. Once the relationship between dining out (frequency and spending) was adjusted for FAFH interest rate and sociodemographic factors, an increase in dining out frequency post-COVID-19 remained significant. However, the unadjusted increase in dining out spending did not remain significant. Further research to understand the demand for dining out post-pandemic is warranted.

Inflation Rate Volatility and Household Final Consumption Expenditure: Evidence from Cameroon

Aims: The study aims to examine the effects of inflation rate volatility on household final consumption expenditure in Cameroon. Studies on inflation rate and household final consumption expenditure in Cameroon are limited. This study provides a new insight into how inflation rate fluctuations affect household consumption expenditure in Cameroon.
 Study Design: The study made use of an ex-post facto research design as the researcher has no control over the variables.
 Place and Duration of the Study: The study was conducted in Cameroon using World Bank data from 1980-2020.
 Methodology of the Study: The objectives of the study were accomplished using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound test and error correction model (ECM) based on the conclusion of the unit root test.
 Results: The findings indicate that the inflation rate has a positive and significant effect on household final consumption expenditure in both the short and long run.
 Conclusion: The study concludes that an unstable inflation rate has a great impact on household final consumption expenditure in Cameroon.

A hybrid risk analysis model for wind farms using Coloured Petri Nets and interpretive structural modelling

This research presents an integrated approach combining Coloured Petri Nets and Interpretive Structural Modelling, called hybrid ISM-CPN model, to risk assessment of wind farms development. The dynamic nature of the component elements of wind farms and considering the risks interdependencies motivate this combination. A questionnaire survey targeting experts is conducted for calculating the modified Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs). Thirty-four factors are ranked, and the nine critical risks identified as “Political instability”, “Sanctions”, “Economic insecurity”, “Interest rate fluctuations”, “Exchange rate fluctuations”, “Inflation rate fluctuations”, “Feasibility risk”, “Shortage of capital risk”, and “Supplier risk”. The values of RPNT = 260.26, RPNC = 251.31, and RPNQ = 238.77 indicate that “Exchange rate fluctuations” is the most important critical risk. The second one, is “Political instability” with RPNT = 255.35, RPNC = 247.28, and RPNQ = 230.56. The simulation results of a 50 MW wind farm reveal, with a 90% confidence level, “Sanctions” would cause 43.9% increase in project execution time and 28% decrease in project quality, and “Shortage of capital risk” has the greatest impact on project cost, with a 25.79% increase. This work further proposes several strategies to respond to the CRs and concludes that investments in REs can support post-COVID-19 economic recovery.

Inspecting Driving Forces of Business Cycles in Korea

This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.

Inspecting Driving Forces of Business Cycles in Korea

This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.

The Relationship Between Dollarization and Inflation: " Egypt at period 1994-2016 is A Model "

The paper aims to make comprehensive view of theoretical frameworks that determent the relationship between dollarization phenomenon and inflation rate and fluctuation. It also aims at analyzing and explanting the mechanisms on the impact played by one toward the other . The paper, as well as, try to makes quantitave model for testing and determining the nature, value, and direction of the relationships between those two variables and the capability of the actual situation in Egypt during the period 1994-2016 for reflecting the theoretical situation. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag methodology (ARDL) was used by Pesaran et al. (2011) is adopted to achieve that. The results of the measurement show a statistically significant negative impact on the inflation rate (INF), a significant positive effect of fluctuations in inflation rates (GINF), and no significant effect on the difference between inflation and exchange rate fluctuations (GIEX) In the dollarization index Duration of study.

Recovering Historical Inflation Data from Postage Stamps Prices

For many developing countries, historical inflation figures are rarely available. We propose a simple method that aims to recover such figures of inflation using prices of postage stamps issued in earlier years. We illustrate our method for Suriname, where annual inflation rates are available for 1961 until 2015, and where fluctuations in inflation rates are prominent. We estimate the inflation rates for the sample 1873 to 1960. Our main finding is that high inflation periods usually last no longer than 2 or 3 years. An Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model for the recent sample and for the full sample with the recovered inflation rates shows the relevance of adding the recovered data.

Asymmetric effects of the international transmission of US financial stress. A threshold-VAR approach

During period of financial stress, the effect of financial stress shocks on economic activity might be different from what is usually observed in normal times. This paper investigates the transmission of financial stress episodes on the macroeconomy during stressed and normal periods and it explores how these events are transmitted to the Eurozone. We find that, a detrimental US financial shock leads to a worsening in economic and financial conditions both domestically and in the Eurozone. In addition, during turmoil times, financial accelerator mechanism amplifies and propagates the transmission of US financial stress shocks to the Eurozone by reducing its economic activity. Moreover, small financial stress shocks, rather than infrequent large ones, are able to create large fluctuations in inflation rates. Last, the effect of a detrimental shock in financial conditions has larger negative effects in the economy compared with the positive effects that would be generated by a beneficial shock in financial conditions.

Investigating the Short Term and Long Term Impact of Exchange Rate and Inflation Fluctuation on Iran's Non-Oil Export

That emerged more than before in recent decades is internalization of commerce and companies movement toward global market. In order to enter to this global market, companies benefited from different approaches which one of them is development of export. But, it can be said that a wide set of factors affect export. Among important effective factors on foreign trade pattern are fluctuations of variables such as exchange rate and inflation rate. Risk derived from exchange rate fluctuations is one of the factors that always is considered as a problem for country economy especially foreign trade section. This issue is so important that in some cases this risk exerts vast and irrecoverable damage to exporters. The purpose of this study is investigating the impact of exchange and inflation rate fluctuations on the amount of export of exporters in different sectors of country (Iran) during 2001 to 2010 based on monthly data. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method was used in order to calculate the fluctuations and Vector Auto Regression (VAR), impulse response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VD) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) methods were used to investigate the short term and long term impacts of exchange rate and inflation rate fluctuations on export. Findings generally show that the impact of internal exchange rate and inflation rate fluctuations on export power of exporters in short term is more and associated impacts in long term is decreased and neutralized.

The Fisher Effect in the Spanish Case: A Preliminary Study

We revise previous literature about Fisher effect, in order to check if the majority of nominal interest rates movements are caused by inflation rate fluctuations, remaining constant the real interest rate. Finally, we analyze the Fisher effect in the Spanish case with a preliminary analysis in order to validate future studies.

Breaking Down the Residual Category: Policy Stability among Dictatorships from a Veto Players Perspective

In this paper, I argue that policies in dictatorships require the tacit support of two actors: the leader of the regime (an individual veto player) and the individuals the leader relies on for support (a collective veto player). I show that the collective veto player differs across personalist, military, and single party dictatorships in important ways. Due to such differences, it should be easiest to change policy in personalist regimes and most difficult in single party regimes. I test this statistically by comparing responses to exogenous economic shocks and fluctuations in inflation rates across dictatorships. I find substantial support for my argument.