Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System Research Articles

Heat waves related to Quasi-Biweekly variability over Southern China in the FGOALS-g3 model

In the present study, we focused on the heat waves (HW) associated with the quasi-biweekly (QBW, 10–20-day period) variability (QBW-HW) over Southern China (SC, 102º–120ºE, 21º–30ºN) in the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model, GridPoint version 3 (FGOALS-g3), and the HW-associated structures and surface air temperature budget investigated by using model outputs from historical experiment of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that the anomalous circulations related to the QBW-HW events over SC are closely linked to the southeastward propagation of the wave train from mid-high latitudes and the northwestward-propagating disturbances from the tropics. The results also showed that adiabatic and diabatic heating play a key role in the QBW-HW over SC. These results are in good agreement with observations from previous studies. In addition, QBW-HWs are dry in the FGOALS-g3 model, while observed humid HWs occur over SC. The difference is mainly due to the new boundary layer scheme incorporated in the FGOALS-g3 model, which overestimates the entrainment process at the top of the boundary layer during the QBW-HW over SC, resulting in more and drier air into the boundary layer, and thus less moisture. It implies that the entrainment equation at the top of the boundary layer in the FGOALS-g3 model does need to be improved to be suitable for humid HW processes, although the boundary layer scheme can improve the model precipitation and radiative forcing.

Role of Ocean Initialization in Skillful Prediction of Sahel Rainfall on the Decadal Time Scale

Abstract Sahel summer rainfall has undergone persistent drought from the 1970s to 1980s, causing severe human life and economic losses. Many studies pointed out that the decadal variations of Sahel rainfall are mainly modulated by low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variations in different ocean basins. However, how this modulation contributes to the decadal prediction skill of Sahel rainfall remains unknown. This study provided an affirmative response using the decadal hindcasts initialized by a dimensional-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) data assimilation method to incorporate only ocean analysis data into the gridpoint version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model (FGOALS-g2). The hindcasts reveal the benefits of the DRP-4DVar approach for improving the Sahel rainfall decadal prediction skill measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root-mean-square error, ACC difference, and mean square skill score. The decadal variations of SSTs in the Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, Indian Ocean, and Pacific as well as correct representations of the associated Sahel rainfall–SST relationships are well predicted, thus leading to skillful predictions of Sahel rainfall. In particular, the initialization of SSTs in the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea plays a more important role in skillful Sahel rainfall predictions than in the other basins. The prediction skill of Sahel rainfall by the FGOALS-g2 prediction system is significantly higher than those by most phase 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5&6) prediction systems initialized only with ocean analysis data. This result is likely attributed to a more accurate relationship between Sahel rainfall and SST by the FGOALS-g2 prediction system than by the CMIP5&6 prediction systems. Significance Statement Previous studies have shown limited success in predicting Sahel rainfall. By using an advanced coupled data assimilation method constrained only by ocean observational data, we achieve a high decadal prediction skill for Sahel rainfall. The successful prediction is attributed to accurately predicted decadal variations of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea, Indian Ocean, and Pacific as well as their relationships with Sahel rainfall. Our results can provide references for future decadal predictions of Sahel rainfall and motivate the need to evaluate the contributions of the initialization of the ocean versus the other climate components (e.g., atmosphere or land) to Sahel rainfall predictions.

Evaluation of the interannual variability in the East Asian summer monsoon in AMIP and historical experiments of CAS FGOALS-f3-L

The evaluation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulations could improve our understanding of Asian monsoon dynamics and climate simulations. In this study, by using Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) experiments of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and historical runs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System (FGOALS-f3-L) model, the model simulation skill for the interannual variability in the EASM was determined. According to multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis, the major mode of the EASM mainly emerged as a Pacific-Japan pattern in the western Pacific accompanied by a local anticyclonic anomaly with a total variance of 24.6%. The historical experiment could suitably reproduce this spatial pattern and attained a closer total variance than that attained by the AMIP experiment. The historical experiment could also better simulate the time frequency of the EASM variability than the AMIP experiment. However, the phase of principal component 1 (PC1) was not suitably reproduced in the historical experiment since no initialization procedure was applied at the beginning of the integration in the historical simulation process, whereas the sea surface temperature (SST) was preset in the AMIP experiment. Further analysis revealed that air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean and tropical western Pacific were important for the model to provide satisfactory EASM simulations, while El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulation was possibly related to the climate variability in the EASM simulations, which should be further analyzed.摘要对东亚夏季季风(EASM)模拟的评估可以提高我们对亚洲季风动力和气候模拟的理解. 在这项研究中, 通过使用中国科学院(CAS)全球海洋-大气-陆地系统(FGOALS-f3-L)模式参加的第六次耦合模式相互比较计划(CMIP6)中的大气模式相互比较计划(AMIP)和历史(historical)试验, 明确了EASM的年际变率的模拟能力. 通过多变量经验正交函数(MV-EOF)分析发现, 观测的EASM的主导模态为西太平洋上的太平洋-日本模态, 并伴有局部反气旋异常. 主导模态的方差贡献率为24.6%. 历史(historical)试验可以基本再现这种空间模态, 其方差贡献率较AMIP试验更接近于观测. 与AMIP试验相比, 历史(historical)试验还能更好地模拟EASM变率的时间频率. 然而, 由于历史(historical)模拟没有在积分开始时应用初始化过程, 而AMIP试验受到海表面温度(SST)的约束, 因此主成分(PC1)的位相在历史(historical)试验中没有得到较好地再现. 进一步分析发现, 印度洋和西太平洋热带地区的海气相互作用对EASM的模拟非常重要, 而EASM气候变率的模拟可能与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的模拟能力有关, 这值得进一步分析.

Dynamic and Thermal Effects of the Tibetan and Iranian Plateaus on the Northward-Propagating Intraseasonal Oscillation during Boreal Summer

Abstract This study investigates the dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibetan and Iranian Plateaus (TIP) on the characteristics of the northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and reveals associated physical mechanisms. The relative importance of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Iranian Plateau (IP) to the northward propagation of BSISO is also detected. The findings are based on comparative analyses of the control run and six sensitivity experiments using the atmospheric model component of CAS FGOALS-f3-L (the low-resolution version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model, finite-volume version 3). It is demonstrated that the absence of TIP surface sensible heat or terrain restricts the occurrence of upper-level easterly and lower-level westerly anomalies, as well as moisture convergence over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, which leads to a weakened easterly vertical wind shear with a narrowed range and the generation of a negative meridional specific humidity gradient in the northern Bay of Bengal. These mean-state changes are not conducive to the formation of positive barotropic vorticity together with planetary boundary layer moisture convergence to the north of the convective center, thus impeding the northward propagation of the BSISO. Results indicate that the combined TIP area, via its dynamic and thermal effects, modulates the northward-propagating BSISO by directly affecting the vertical wind shear and meridional moisture gradient in the northern Indian Ocean. By contrast, the TP plays a decisive role in the BSISO northward propagation due to the limited dynamic and thermal effects of IP on the background circulation and water vapor convergence over the ASM region.

Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Changes to Climate Sensitivity Between FGOALS‐g2 and FGOALS‐g3

AbstractEquilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and its related feedbacks are important metrics that can be used to measure the global mean surface temperature change in future climate projections, and the cloud feedback (CF) is considered to be the main contributor to ECS uncertainties. However, the use of different CF methods significantly affects the CF amplitudes, and the sign of the CF may also change. Combining the radiative kernel approach with a simplified CF method, the differences in the ECS and associated feedbacks between two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model (i.e., FGOALS‐g2 and FGOALS‐g3) were analyzed. Results show that the ECS of FGOALS‐g3 is smaller than that of FGOALS‐g2 (2.8 vs. 3.3 K). The main feedback processes that contribute to the ECS change in FGOALS‐g3 are the weaker surface albedo feedback and stronger negative shortwave CF. The reduced surface albedo feedback in FGOALS‐g3 can be attributed mainly to the differences in the simulations of sea ice area, surface temperature, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, as well as their interactions, compared with FGOALS‐g2. The enhanced negative shortwave CF in FGOALS‐g3 is directly related to the strengthened feedback of cloud area fraction and liquid water path. Furthermore, these changes can be traced back to the different atmospheric moist processes, parameter tuning, ocean grid, and external forcings used in FGOALS‐g3, as these all affect the mean climate state of the model.

Influence of the North American Dipole on ENSO onset as simulated by a coupled ocean–Atmosphere model

The North American Dipole (NAD) is a north–south seesaw pattern of sea level pressure anomalies over the western tropical North Atlantic and northeastern North America. Previous observational studies have demonstrated that the NAD can affect the outbreak of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The present study analyzed the NAD–ENSO relationship as simulated by a coupled ocean–atmosphere model—namely, the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model, gridpoint version 2 (FGOALS-g2). Results indicated that the model can replicate a distinct dipole comprised of a low over northeastern North America and a high over the western tropical North Atlantic, which is the signature feature of the NAD. Further analysis verified that the winter NAD can initiate the central equatorial Pacific warming in the subsequent winter by effectively forcing an anticyclonic flow and sea surface temperature (SST) warming over the northeastern subtropical Pacific (NESP) during late winter or early spring. In addition, the probability of an El Niño event was increased by a factor of 1.8 in the assimilation experiment with the NAD. By comparison, the winter Northern Atlantic Oscillation had no significant impact on the occurrence of ENSO a year later owing to its failure to induce the SST and surface wind anomalies over the NESP.摘要北美偶极子(NAD)是热带北大西洋西部和北美东北部的南北向海平面气压异常偶极型模态.以往的观测研究表明, NAD可以有效地影响ENSO事件的爆发. 本文利用全球耦合模式FGOALS-g2, 评估了NAD与ENSO的关系. 结果表明, 该模式能较好地重现NAD模态. 进一步的分析验证了冬季NAD可以通过强迫冬末春初副热带东北太平洋上空的反气旋和暖海温的出现, 在随后的冬季触发El Niño事件. 此外, 在同化NAD实验中, 发生El Niño事件的概率增加了将近一倍. 相比之下, NAO未能在副热带东北太平洋上空引起表面风和海温的异常, 因而不能有效地激发次年冬季ENSO事件.

Simulating and Evaluating Global Aerosol Distributions With the Online Aerosol‐Coupled CAS‐FGOALS Model

AbstractWe implement an existing aerosol module named Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) in the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System (CAS‐FGOALS) model and simulate the global aerosol properties over 2002–2014. The simulated surface mass concentrations of individual aerosols generally reproduce the observed ones. The simulated spatial‐temporal distributions of the aerosol optical depths (AODs) are evaluated with multisource satellite retrievals, and the simulated AOD, Ångström Exponent (AE), and single scattering albedo (SSA) are further evaluated with the ground‐based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements. The spatial distribution of the modeled AOD is found to be generally comparable to the satellite retrievals. The interannual and seasonal variations of the modeled AOD over various aerosol regimes are also overall consistent with the AERONET observations. With respect to the AE, our model can reproduce the interannual variations fairly well over the dust dominant regions, and generally capture the seasonal variations over the industrial domain regions. Over the industrial domain regions, however, the systematic underestimation of the simulated AE is found, which is in part due to the biases of wind fields and overestimation of the relative humidity (RH) by the host model. With respect to the SSA, our model can also generally reproduce the observed seasonal variations, while the modeled values are typically lower than the observations, especially over North Africa.

Simulated response of the active layer thickness of permafrost to climate change: 模拟多年冻土活动层厚度对气候变化的响应

The active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions, which affects water and energy exchange, is a key variable for assessing hydrological processes, cold-region engineering, and climate change. In this study, the authors analyzed the variation trends and relative changes of simulated ALTs using the Chinese Academy of Sciences Land Surface Model (CAS-LSM) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model, gridpoint version 3 (CAS-FGOALS-g3). Firstly, the simulated ALTs produced by CAS-LSM were shown to be reasonable by comparing them with Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring observations. Then, the authors simulated the ALTs from 1979 to 2014, and their relative changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 2015 to 2100. It is shown that the ALTs have an increasing trend. From 1979 to 2014, the average ALTs and their variation trends over all permafrost regions were 1.08 m and 0.33 cm yr−1, respectively. The relative changes of the ALTs ranged from 1% to 58%, and the average relative change was 10.9%. The variation trends of the ALTs were basically consistent with the variation trends of the 2-m air temperature. By 2100, the relative changes of ALTs are predicted to be 10.3%, 14.6%, 30.1%, and 51%, respectively, under the four considered hypothetical climate scenarios (SSP-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). This study indicates that climate change has a substantial impact on ALTs, and our results can help in understanding the responses of the ALTs of permafrost due to climate change.摘要在气候变化背景下, 活动层厚度的变化会对多年冻土区水文,生态,寒区工程等产生较大的影响.本研究利用中科院气候系统模式CAS-FGOALS-g3和陆面过程模式CAS-LSM 模拟分析了活动层厚度的变化趋势和相对变化.结果表明:活动层厚度整体上呈现出增加的趋势.1979 - 2014年, 多年冻土区活动层厚度的区域平均为1.08 m, 变化趋势为0.33 cm yr−1, 其变化趋势与2 m气温变化趋势基本一致, 相对变化范围为1%-58%, 平均为10.9%.在未来四种不同的气候情景(SSP-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下, 到2100年预计活动层厚度的相对变化分别为10.3%,14.6%,30.1%和51%.

Analysis of surface temperature bias over the Tibetan plateau in the CAS FGOALS-f3-L model: 关于 CAS FGOALS-f3-L 模式中青藏高原地表温度偏差的归因分析

The Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System atmospheric component model (FGOALS-f3-L) participated in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but its reproducibility of surface temperature (Ts) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as a key climatically sensitive region remains unclear. This study evaluates the capability of FGOALS-f3-L in reproducing the climatological Ts over the TP relative to the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. The results show that FGOALS-f3-L can reasonably capture the spatial pattern of Ts but underestimates the annual mean Ts for the whole TP. The simulated Ts for the whole TP shows a cold bias in winter and spring and a warm bias in summer and autumn. Further quantitative analysis based on the surface energy budget equation shows that the surface albedo feedback (SAF) term strongly contributes to the annual, winter, and spring mean cold bias in the western TP and to the warm bias in the eastern TP. Compared with the SAF term, the surface sensible and latent heat flux terms make nearly opposite contributions to the Ts bias and considerably offset the bias due to the SAF term. The cloud radiative forcing term strongly contributes to the annual and seasonal mean weak cold bias in the eastern TP. The longwave radiation term associated with the overestimated water vapor content accounts for a large portion of the warm bias over the whole TP in summer and autumn. Improving land surface and cloud processes in FGOALS-f3-L is critical to reduce the Ts bias over the TP.摘要中国科学院全球海洋–大气–陆地耦合模式 (FGOALS-f3-L) 参加了耦合模式比较计划的第六阶段 (CMIP6) 试验,但是其对关键气候敏感地区青藏高原的地表温度的再现能力还不清楚.这项研究用再分析资料CFSR评估了FGOALS-f3-L模式对青藏高原地表温度的再现能力.结果表明, FGOALS-f3-L可以合理模拟整个高原上年平均地表温度的空间分布, 但低估了整个高原上年平均地表温度.模拟的地表温度在整个高原上冬春季表现为冷偏差, 夏秋季表现为暖偏差.基于地表能量平衡方程的进一步定量分析表明, 地表反照率反馈 (SAF) 项极大地贡献了高原西部年平均, 冬春季平均地表温度的冷偏差, 而对高原东部是暖偏差贡献.与SAF项相比, 地表感热项对地表温度偏差的贡献几乎相反, 这大大抵消了SAF项引起的偏差.云辐射强迫项对高原东部的年平均和季节平均弱冷偏差有很大贡献.与高估的水蒸气含量有关的长波辐射项造成了夏秋季整个高原上大部分的暖偏差.该研究表明, 提高FGOALS-f3-L中的陆面和云过程对降低高原上地表温度偏差至关重要.

Surface Temperature Changes Projected by FGOALS Models under Low Warming Scenarios in CMIP5 and CMIP6

To meet the low warming targets proposed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, substantial reduction in carbon emissions is needed in the future. It is important to know how surface climates respond under low warming targets. The present study investigates the surface temperature changes under the low-forcing scenario of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6) and its updated version (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP1-2.6) by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively). In both scenarios, radiative forcing (RF) first increases to a peak of 3 W m−2 around 2045 and then decreases to 2.6 W m−2 by 2100. Global mean surface air temperature rises in all FGOALS models when RF increases (RF increasing stage) and declines or holds nearly constant when RF decreases (RF decreasing stage). The surface temperature change is distinct in its sign and magnitude between the RF increasing and decreasing stages over the land, Arctic, North Atlantic subpolar region, and Southern Ocean. Besides, the regional surface temperature change pattern displays pronounced model-to-model spread during both the RF increasing and decreasing stages, mainly due to large intermodel differences in climatological surface temperature, ice-albedo feedback, natural variability, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation change. The pattern of tropical precipitation change is generally anchored by the spatial variations of relative surface temperature change (deviations from the tropical mean value) in the FGOALS models. Moreover, the projected changes in the updated FGOALS models are closer to the multi-model ensemble mean results than their predecessors, suggesting that there are noticeable improvements in the future projections of FGOALS models from CMIP5 to CMIP6.

Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing in the Online Aerosol Coupled CAS-FGOALS-f3-L Climate Model

The effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol can be more representative of the eventual climate response than other radiative forcing. We incorporate aerosol–cloud interaction into the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System (CAS-FGOALS-f3-L) by coupling an existing aerosol module named the Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) and quantified the ERF and its primary components (i.e., effective radiative forcing of aerosol-radiation interactions (ERFari) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci)) based on the protocol of current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The spatial distribution of the shortwave ERFari and ERFaci in CAS-FGOALS-f3-L are comparable with that of most available CMIP6 models. The global mean 2014–1850 shortwave ERFari in CAS-FGOALS-f3-L (−0.27 W m−2) is close to the multi-model means in 4 available models (−0.29 W m−2), whereas the assessing shortwave ERFaci (−1.04 W m−2) and shortwave ERF (−1.36 W m−2) are slightly stronger than the multi-model means, illustrating that the CAS-FGOALS-f3-L can reproduce the aerosol radiation effect reasonably well. However, significant diversity exists in the ERF, especially in the dominated component ERFaci, implying that the uncertainty is still large.

Projecting the future vegetation–climate system over East Asia and its RCP-dependence

The future vegetation–climate system over East Asia, as well as its dependence on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), is investigated using a regional climate–vegetation model driven with boundary conditions from Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model: Grid-point Version 2. Over most of the region, due to the rising CO2 concentration and climate changes, the model projects greater vegetation density (leaf area index) and gradual shifts of vegetation type from bare ground to grass or from grass to trees; the projected spatial extent of the vegetation shift increases from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. Abrupt shifts are projected under RCP8.5 over northeast China (with grass replacing boreal needleleaf evergreen trees due to heat stress) and India (with tropical deciduous trees replacing grass due to increased water availability). The impact of vegetation feedback on future precipitation is relatively weak, while its impact on temperature is more evident, especially during DJF over northeast China and India with differing mechanisms. In northeast China, the projected forest loss induces a cooling through increased albedo, and daytime high temperature (Tmax) is influenced more than nighttime low temperature (Tmin); in India, increased vegetation cover induces an evaporative cooling that outweighs the warming effect of an albedo decrease in DJF, leading to a weaker impact on Tmax than on Tmin. Based on a single model, the qualitative aspects of these results may hold while quantitative assessment will benefit from a follow-up regional model ensemble study driven by multiple general circulation models.

CAS FGOALS-f3-L model dataset descriptions for CMIP6 DECK experiments

The datasets of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System (FGOALS-f3-L) model for the baseline experiment of the fully coupled runs in the Diagnostic, Evalu...

Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

Improved ENSO simulation from climate system model FGOALS-g1.0 to FGOALS-g2

This study presents an overview of the improvement in the simulation of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the latest generation of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics’ coupled general circulation model (CGCM), the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2; hereafter referred to as “g2”) from its predecessor FGOALS-g1.0 (referred to as “g1”), including the more realistic amplitude, irregularity, and ENSO cycle. The changes have been analyzed quantitatively based on the Bjerknes stability index, which serves as a measure of ENSO growth rate. The improved simulation of ENSO amplitude is mainly due to the reasonable representation of the thermocline and thermodynamic feedbacks: On the one hand, the deeper mean thermocline results in a weakened thermocline response to the zonal wind stress anomaly, and the looser vertical stratification of mean temperature leads to a weakened response of anomalous subsurface temperature to anomalous thermocline depth, both of which cause the reduced thermocline feedback in g2; on the other hand, the alleviated cold bias of mean sea surface temperature leads to more reasonable thermodynamic feedback in g2. The regular oscillation of ENSO in g1 is associated with its unsuccessful representation of the role of atmospheric noise over the western–central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) in triggering ENSO events, which arises from the weak synoptic–intraseasonal variability of zonal winds over the WCEP in g1. The asymmetric transition of ENSO in g1 is attributed to the asymmetric effect of thermocline feedback, which is due to the annual cycle of mean upwelling in the eastern Pacific. This study highlights the great impact of improving the representation of mean states on the improved simulation of air–sea feedback processes and ultimately more reasonable depiction of ENSO behaviors in CGCMs.

Unrealistic treatment of detrained water substance in FGOALS-s2 and its influence on the model’s climate sensitivity

AbstractBased on a series of aqua-planet and air–sea coupled experiments, the influence of unrealistic treatment of water substance in the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model, spectral version 2 (FGOALS-s2), on the model’s climate sensitivity is investigated in this paper. Because the model does not adopt an explicit microphysics scheme, the detrained water substance from the convection scheme is converted back to the humidity. This procedure could lead to an additional increase of water vapor in the atmosphere, which could strengthen the model’s climate sensitivity. Further sensitivity experiments confirm this deduction. After removing the water vapor converted from the detrained water substance, the water vapor reduced significantly in the upper troposphere and the high clouds also reduced. Quantitative calculations show that the water vapor reduced almost 10% of the total water vapor, and 50% at 150 hPa, when the detrained water substance was removed, contributing to the 30% atmospheric ...

Statistical Downscaling of FGOALS-s2 Projected Precipitation in Eastern China

AbstractA statistical regression downscaling method was used to project future changes in precipitation over eastern China based on Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios simulated by the second spectral version of the Flexible Global Ocean- Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-s2) model. Our validation results show that the downscaled time series agree well with the present observed precipitation in terms of both the annual mean and the seasonal cycle. The regression models built from the historical data are then used to generate future projections. The results show that the enhanced land-sea thermal contrast strengthens both the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific and the east Asian summer monsoon flow under both RCPs. However, the trend of precipitation in response to warming over the 21st century are different across eastern China under different RCPs. The area to the north of 32°N is likely to experience an increase...

Precipitation changes in wet and dry seasons over the 20th century simulated by two versions of the FGOALS model

Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65–0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet seasons get wetter and the annual range (precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons) increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.

Understanding the Global Surface-Atmosphere Energy Balance in FGOALS-s2 through an Attribution Analysis of the Global Temperature Biases

Based on an attribution analysis of the global mean temperature biases in the Flexible Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System model, spectral version 2(FGOALS-s2) through a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method(CFRAM), the model's global surface-atmosphere energy balance in boreal winter and summer is examined. Within the energy-balance-based CFRAM system, the model temperature biases are attributed to energy perturbations resulting from model biases in individual radiative and non-radiative processes in the atmosphere and at the surface. The results show that, although the global mean surface temperature(Ts) bias is only 0.38 K in January and 1.70 K in July, and the atmospheric temperature(Ta) biases from the troposphere to the stratosphere are only around ±3 K at most, the temperature biases due to model biases in representing the individual radiative and non-radiative processes are considerably large(over ±10 K at most). Specifically, the global cold radiative Ts bias, mainly due to the overestimated surface albedo, is compensated for by the global warm non-radiative Ts bias that is mainly due to the overestimated downward surface heat fluxes. The model biases in non-radiative processes in the lower troposphere(up to 5–15 K) are relatively much larger than in upper levels, which are mainly responsible for the warm Ta biases there. In contrast, the global mean cold Ta biases in the mid-to-upper troposphere are mainly dominated by radiative processes. The warm/cold Ta biases in the lower/upper stratosphere are dominated by non-radiative processes, while the warm Ta biases in the mid-stratosphere can be attributed to the radiative ozone feedback process.

Understanding the systematic air temperature biases in a coupled climate system model through a process-based decomposition method

A quantitative attribution analysis is performed on the systematic atmospheric temperature biases in a coupled climate system model (flexible global ocean–atmosphere–land system model, spectral version 2) in reference to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Re-analysis Interim data during 1979–2005. By adopting the coupled surface–atmosphere climate feedback response analysis method, the model temperature biases are related to model biases in representing the radiative processes including water vapor, ozone, clouds and surface albedo, and the non-radiative processes including surface heat fluxes and other dynamic processes. The results show that the temperature biases due to biases in radiative and non-radiative processes tend to compensate one another. In general, the radiative biases tend to dominate in the summer hemisphere, whereas the non-radiative biases dominate in the winter hemisphere. The temperature biases associated with radiative processes due to biases in ozone and water vapor content are the main contributors to the total temperature bias in the tropical and summer stratosphere. The overestimated surface albedo in both polar regions always results in significant cold biases in the atmosphere above in the summer season. Apart from these radiative biases, the zonal-mean patterns of the temperature biases in both boreal winter and summer are largely determined by model biases in non-radiative processes. In particular, the stronger non-radiative process biases in the northern winter hemisphere are responsible for the relatively larger ‘cold pole’ bias in the northern winter polar stratosphere.