Statistical Downscaling of FGOALS-s2 Projected Precipitation in Eastern China

Abstract

AbstractA statistical regression downscaling method was used to project future changes in precipitation over eastern China based on Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios simulated by the second spectral version of the Flexible Global Ocean- Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-s2) model. Our validation results show that the downscaled time series agree well with the present observed precipitation in terms of both the annual mean and the seasonal cycle. The regression models built from the historical data are then used to generate future projections. The results show that the enhanced land-sea thermal contrast strengthens both the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific and the east Asian summer monsoon flow under both RCPs. However, the trend of precipitation in response to warming over the 21st century are different across eastern China under different RCPs. The area to the north of 32°N is likely to experience an increase...