Fleet Electrification Research Articles

Health and Climate Incentives for the Deployment of Cleaner On-Road Vehicle Technologies.

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of private passenger vehicles, transit buses, and commercial vehicles with newer technology can improve air quality, and, subsequently, population exposure and public health. For the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, we estimated the burden of each vehicle fleet on population health in the units of years of life lost and premature deaths. We then assessed the separate health benefits of electrifying private vehicles, transit buses, and replacing the oldest commercial vehicles with newer trucks. A complete deployment of electric passenger vehicles would lead to health benefits similar to replacing all trucks older than 8 years (i.e., about 300 premature deaths prevented) in the first year of implementation; however, GHG emissions would be mainly reduced with passenger fleet electrification. Transit bus electrification has similar health benefits as electrifying half of the passenger fleet (i.e., about 150 premature deaths prevented); however, the GHG emission reductions reached under the bus electrification scenario are lower by 90%. By accelerating policies to electrify cars and buses and renew older trucks, governments can save hundreds of lives per year and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Health Benefits of Electrifying Chicago's Municipal Vehicle Fleet

BackgroundApproximately 100 000 American citizens die prematurely each year from air pollution exposure. To lower ambient pollution and co-emitted greenhouse gases, some cities have enacted vehicle electrification policies. In this study, we aimed to simulate changes in atmospheric composition due to the electrification of Chicago's municipal vehicle fleet and quantify the corresponding health and climate benefits of this policy. MethodsWe simulated air quality at the neighbourhood scale (1·3 × 1·3 km) over the Chicago metropolitan area using the coupled Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality Modelling System chemistry-climate model. We modified the 2014–16 National Emissions Inventory to create input emissions for baseline and electric vehicle adoption scenarios in Summer (August 2018) and Winter (January 2019) months. In the electric vehicle adoption scenario, we removed combustion products of the municipal vehicle fleet (school buses, transit buses, and refuse trucks) from the emissions data. To quantify the health effects of electric vehicle adoption, we calculated the difference in health response between the baseline and electrification scenarios by use of a suite of health response functions. FindingsWe found that fleet electrification reduced CO2 emissions (–1·4%) and NO2 concentrations (–1·0%) while modestly increasing O3 concentrations (+0·3%). Monthly average NO2 reductions were found in high-density areas and along interstate highways, whereas O3 increases were more prominent in the Chicagoland suburbs. Particulate matter changes were modest and spatially heterogenous. The pollutant changes resulted in both positive and negative health outcomes that were largely off setting. InterpretationThe inverse relationship between O3 and NO2 is known as the “weekend effect”, in which the removal of NO2 results in an increase in O3 due to titration in volatile organic compound-limited environments. This relationship is particularly evident over the highways, where excess NO2 reduces O3 concentrations. The decision to electrify vehicles should consider air quality changes in addition to CO2 due to complicating chemical interactions within urban environments. FundingUbben Program for Carbon and Climate Science at Northwestern University, US National Science Foundation.

Real-World Contribution of Electrification and Replacement Scenarios to the Fleet Emissions in West Midland Boroughs, UK

This study reports the likely real-world effects of fleet replacement with electric vehicles (EVs) and higher efficiency EURO 6 vehicles on the exhaustive emissions of NOx, PM, and CO2 in the seven boroughs of the West Midlands (WM) region, UK. National fleet composition data, local EURO distributions, and traffic compositions were used to project vehicle fleet compositions for different roads in each borough. A large dataset of real-world emission factors including over 90,000 remote-sensing measurements, obtained from remote sensing campaigns in five UK cities, was used to parameterize the emission profiles of the studied scenarios. Results show that adoption of the fleet electrification approach would have the highest emission reduction potential on urban roads in WM boroughs. It would result in maximum reductions ranging from 35.0 to 37.9%, 44.3 to 48.3%, and 46.9 to 50.3% for NOx, PM, and CO2, respectively. In comparison, the EURO 6 replacement fleet scenario would lead to reductions ranging from 10.0 to 10.4%, 4.0 to 4.2%, and 6.0 to 6.4% for NOx, PM, and CO2, respectively. The studied mitigation scenarios have higher efficacies on motorways compared to rural and urban roads because of the differences in traffic fleet composition. The findings presented will help policymakers choose climate and air quality mitigation strategies.

Assessment of the impact of a fully electrified postal fleet for urban freight transportation

The progressive electrification of urban distribution fleets, motivated by the consolidation of electric vehicle technology and by the mobility advantages that cities grant to non-polluting vehicles, poses future challenges that affect electrical distribution networks. This paper simulates the main last mile distribution models that can be adopted in a mega-city such as Madrid. In particular, the impact of carrying out the full load of the last mile distribution by means of electric vehicles is analyzed. Two fundamental aspects are studied, the efficiency of the different routes developed by each transport vehicle and the impact that these routes have in the electrical distribution network. For this purpose, an intelligent route planner, capable of optimizing the distribution of the load among the number of vehicles available in each postal service hub (PSH), is combined with a Reference Network Model that designs and expands the distribution network to supply consumers and electric vehicles. Several scenarios in terms of location and segmentation of postal service hubs are analyzed. From this analysis, it is concluded that reinforcements on the distribution network are avoided if the operation is decentralized (using fourteen PSHs), since a centralized operation (a single PSH) would require longer routes with higher energy consumption. Moreover, decentralized operation would enhance the emissions reduction achieved by electrifying the fleet, since the estimated absolute emissions of the electrified fleet for a decentralized scenario are up to 50% lower compared to a centralized one. Finally, the results reveal that smart charging strategies also contribute to lessen the incremental costs in the distribution network, in addition to significantly reducing the cost of energy supply.

Effects of Air Emission Externalities on Optimal Ridesourcing Fleet Electrification and Operations.

Ridesourcing services from transportation network companies, like Uber and Lyft, serve the fastest growing share of U.S. passenger travel demand.1 Ridesourcing vehicles' high use intensity is economically attractive for electric vehicles, which typically have lower operating costs and higher capital costs than conventional vehicles. We optimize fleet composition (mix of conventional vehicles (CVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs)) and operations to satisfy demand at minimum cost and compare findings across a wide range of present-day and future scenarios for three cities. In nearly all cases, the optimal fleet includes a mix of technologies, HEVs and BEVs make up the majority of distance traveled, and CVs are used primarily for periods of peak demand (if at all). When life cycle air pollution and greenhouse gas emission externalities are internalized via a Pigovian tax, fleet electrification increases and externalities decrease, suggesting a role for policy. Externality reductions vary from 10% in New York (where externality costs for both gasoline and electricity consumption are relatively high and a Pigovian tax induces a partial shift to BEVs), to 22% in Los Angeles (where high gasoline and low electric grid externalities lead a Pigovian tax to induce a near-complete shift to BEVs).

Feasibility of Operating a Heavy-Duty Battery Electric Truck Fleet for Drayage Applications

Vehicle fleet electrification is regarded as one major pathway toward achieving energy independence and reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to light-duty and medium-duty vehicles, electrification of heavy-duty vehicles, especially Class 8 trucks, is more challenging owing to the battery size required to attain the driving range necessary for their operating goals. As drayage trucks generally have a limited daily mileage, return to a home base every night, and spend a large amount of time creeping and idling, drayage operation has been the first targeted application for Class 8 electric trucks. The feasibility of operating battery electric drayage trucks at the individual vehicle level has recently been demonstrated. However, questions remain as to whether these trucks are capable of meeting the needs of typical drayage operation at the fleet level. This paper presents a feasibility analysis of operating an electric truck fleet based on real-world operation data of a diesel drayage operator in Southern California. Second-by-second activity data collected from 20 trucks in the fleet were used to estimate the corresponding electric energy consumption and the state of charge of the battery using a microscopic electric energy consumption model. An algorithm for generating tours of drayage activity from the collected data was developed and implemented. Multiple scenarios with different battery charging and truck scheduling assumptions were analyzed. The results show that 85% of the tours could be served by electric trucks if there is opportunity for charging at the home base during the time gap between consecutive tours.

Wireless Charging of Electric Taxis: Understanding the Facilitators and Barriers to Its Introduction

The shift to electric vehicles has brought about the potential to reduce the environmental damage caused by road transport. However, several challenges prevent wider adoption of electric vehicles, such as: a lack of charging facilities, long charging times, limited range, and the inconvenience of cable charging. These barriers are more pronounced for taxis, which generally cover longer distances than regular cars and have fewer opportunities for recharging. This research aims to evaluate wireless charging for range extended electric taxis, as a strategy to minimise these challenges and facilitate the electrification of fleets. A mixed methods approach, combining quantitative vehicle tracking with qualitative interviews and focus groups with drivers and local authority representatives, provided an understanding of ‘facilitators’ and ‘barriers’ to the introduction of wireless chargers in London and Nottingham, UK. Results indicated that current wired charging infrastructure does not facilitate recharging opportunities during taxi working hours, causing longer shifts or lower earnings. Drivers reported running on a range extender petrol engine once the battery is depleted, limiting the environmental benefits of electric taxis. We conclude that wireless chargers could facilitate the increased driving range of existing electric taxis if installed where drivers stop more often. The results support the implementation of opportunistic, short but frequent charging boosts (known as choko-choko) as part of policies to alleviate the barriers to the introduction of wireless charging of electric taxis, and foster more sustainable means of road transportation.

Integrated planning for electric commercial vehicle fleets: A case study for retail mid-haul logistics networks

Electric commercial vehicles can contribute significantly to sustainable transportation. However, they are still perceived as being less economically viable than internal combustion engine vehicles. To this end, we analyze the deployment of electric commercial vehicles in retail mid-haul logistics fleets for current and future technology scenarios. We develop a novel assessment methodology that combines total cost of ownership calculations with a rich location-routing model. We consider integrated strategic network design and operational routing decisions over a multi-period time horizon, accounting for mixed fleets of electric and conventional vehicles and battery degradation. To solve this problem, we develop a novel matheuristic that embeds a state-of-the-art metaheuristic to take operational routing decisions. With this framework, we analyze a possible transition towards electrified logistics fleets. Starting with a real-world case, we perform sensitivity analyses based on a technology roadmap and further network structures. We discuss cost structures, the time-dependent nature of investment decisions, operational characteristics, and potential emissions savings. We show that in certain cases an electrification of mid-haul logistics fleets is operationally feasible, economically viable, and provides environmental advantages.

Assessing transport emissions reduction while increasing electric vehicles and renewable generation levels

Electric Vehicles (EVs) appear as an environmental solution for transport sector since they emit zero emissions while driving. Nonetheless, the carbon intensity (CI) of the energy sources involved in the electricity generation system could seriously compromise this solution. Hence, this study proposes a methodology to verify the sustainability of the sector by the introduction of EVs. By means of the “Well-to-Wheel” tool, it compares emissions generated by two fleets: one based on internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and another one that also contemplates different EVs penetration levels. This methodology develops an iterative process on the contribution of renewable sources to the electricity generation system until a certain level of emissions reduction is achieved. The needed evolution of the CI for the electricity system is therefore deduced. The methodology has been applied to Spain by the mid-term future, given these country policies for both a high penetration of EVs and a progressive introduction of renewable sources in its electricity system. Results indicate that the current Spanish electricity mix allows for a reduction in CO2 emissions by the introduction of EVs, but a 100% renewable system will be needed for reductions up to 74 million tons per year. This research is a first-ever study to relate the forecasted Spanish environmental policies, in terms of urban transport and configuration of the power system, with a sustainable introduction of EVs in the urban fleet. Hence, this paper would be very helpful for policy makers on evaluation of the requirements for a transport fleet electrification.

Electric bus scheduling under single depot dynamic wireless charging infrastructure planning

The use of electric bus fleets has become a topical issue in recent years. This paper aims to analyze strategic bus fleet scheduling and dynamic wireless charging (DWC) planning problems based on data obtained from the transportation center at Binghamton University. More precisely, we have developed a mixed-integer mathematical model to simultaneously select the optimal location of the DWC facilities and find the optimal battery sizes of electric buses (EBs) for the system. This DWC planning model allows all the system’s EBs to travel the common routes (depot-base station-depot) safely despite their different optimal battery sizes. Additionally, we have developed a scheduling model to find the optimal number of EBs by considering the additional charging time and battery size restrictions. To allow organizations to determine bus replacement plans that will meet their fleet electrification targets in a cost-effective way, we have introduced joint and disjoint scheduling planning strategies for the current conventional bus fleet and a potential EB fleet. Further, we have reformulated the DWC model so an EB can serve several routes with uniform battery size. The results show that the joint scheduling with one optimal battery size is more cost-effective than disjoint scheduling with route-specific battery sizes.

Decarbonizing US passenger vehicle transport under electrification and automation uncertainty has a travel budget

The transportation sector is at the beginning of a transition represented by electrification, shared mobility, and automation, which could lead to either increases or decreases in total travel and energy use. Understanding the factors enabling deep decarbonization of the passenger vehicle sector is essential for planning the required infrastructure investments and technology adoption policies. We examine the requirements for meeting carbon reduction targets of 80% and higher for passenger vehicle transport in the United States (US) by midcentury under uncertainty. We model the changes needed in vehicle electrification, electricity carbon intensity, and travel demand. Since growth in fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is constrained by fleet stock turnover, we estimate the EV penetration rates needed to meet climate targets. We find for a base case level of passenger vehicle travel, midcentury deep decarbonization of US passenger transport is conditional on reducing the electricity generation carbon intensity to close to zero along with electrification of about 67% or 84% of vehicle travel to meet decarbonization targets of 80% or 90%, respectively. Higher electricity generation carbon intensity and degraded EV fuel economy due to automation would require higher levels of fleet electrification and/or further constrain the total vehicle travel allowable. Transportation deep decarbonization not only depends on electricity decarbonization, but also has a total travel budget, representing a maximum total vehicle travel threshold that still enables meeting a midcentury climate target. This makes encouraging ride sharing, reducing total vehicle travel, and increasing fuel economy in both human-driven and future automated vehicles increasingly important to deep decarbonization.

On-Demand Automotive Fleet Electrification Can Catalyze Global Transportation Decarbonization and Smart Urban Mobility.

Mobility on-demand vehicle (MODV) services have grown explosively in recent years, threatening targets for local air pollution and global carbon emissions. Despite evidence that on-demand automotive fleets are ripe for electrification, adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in fleet applications has been hindered by lack of charging infrastructure and long charging times. Recent research on electrification programs in Chinese megacities suggests that top-down policy targets can spur investment in charging infrastructure, while intelligent charging coordination can greatly reduce requirements for battery range and infrastructure, as well as revenue losses due to time spent charging. Such capability may require labor policy reform to allow fleet operators to manage their drivers' charging behavior, along with collection and integration of several key data sets including (1) vehicle trajectories and energy consumption, (2) charging infrastructure installation costs, and (3) real-time charging station availability. In turn, digitization enabled by fleet electrification holds the potential to enable a host of smart urban mobility strategies, including integration of public transit with innovative transportation systems and emission-based pricing policies.

EU road vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050 – Expert-based scenarios

To inform long-term policies on transport decarbonisation, the present paper analyses European road transport CO2 emission reduction options by 2050. The investigation focusses on measures improving tank to wheel vehicle efficiency, but takes into account upstream emissions of electric vehicles. Measures for vehicle efficiency improvement, transport smoothing, and transport reduction, as well as possible 2050 road vehicle fleet compositions have been quantified through expert group discussion and combined with fleet impact modelling to calculate scenario results.Outcomes show that tank to wheel road transport CO2 emission reductions up to 90% versus 1990 could be reached by 2050 through strong fleet electrification and if all measures achieve their best potential. Under ambitious fleet electrification scenarios, CO2 reduction of more than 60% is reached without measures, but causes substantial additional demand for low-carbon electricity, the availability of which is not covered in this paper. It is likely that policies will be a prerequisite for fleet electrification and efficiency increases of the order of magnitude assumed. Moreover, upstream CO2 emissions of electricity for battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could add up to 40% of tank to wheel emissions, suggesting that complementary policies are needed to avoid shifting transport emissions to other sectors.

Unique Opportunities of Island States to Transition to a Low-Carbon Mobility System

Small islands developing states (SIDS) contribute minuscule proportions to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption, but are highly exposed to climate change impacts, in particular to extreme weather events and sea-level rise. However, there is little research on potential decarbonization trajectories unique to SIDS. Here, we argue that insular topology, scale, and economy are distinctive characteristics of SIDS that facilitate overcoming carbon lock-in. We investigate these dimensions for the three islands of Barbados, Fiji, and Mauritius. We find that insular topologies and small scale offer an opportunity for both public transit corridors and rapid electrification of car fleets. The tourism sector enables local decision-makers and investors to experiment with shared mobility and to induce spillover effects by educating tourists about new mobility options. Limited network effects, and the particular economy thus enables to overcome carbon lock-in. We call for targeted investments into SIDS to transition insular mobility systems towards zero carbon in 2040. The decarbonization of SIDS is not only needed as a mitigation effort, but also as a strong signal to the global community underlining that a zero-carbon future is possible.

Elektromobilność w autobusowym transporcie publicznym organizowanym przez Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowską Metropolię jako narzędzie realizacji idei zrównoważonej mobilności

The idea of sustainable mobility is one of the key concepts responding to the need to reduce the negative effects of transport, particularly in urban areas. European Union documents indicate a number of actions which can help to balance mobility. Among them, the concept of increasing the energy efficiency of transport processes through the use of low-emission sources of vehicle power, including electrification of vehicles, occupies an important place. The aim of the study is to determine whether the actions taken by the GZM Metropolis, operating since 2017 in the central part of the Silesian Voivodship, in the field of electrification of the bus transport it organises can be considered as actions imple­menting the objectives of sustainable mobility policy. The article contains: a review of current research on sustainable mobility policy, an attempt to define the concept of electromobility, an indication of the possibility of its application in public bus transport, identification of legal conditions for the implementation of electromobility in public transport in Poland, conditions for the activity of the GZM Metropolis as a public transport authority and an entity responsible for the implementation of sustainable mobility policy, as well as an analysis of actions taken by the Metropolis GZM and its operators in the field of bus fleet electrification. The results of the study are based, among other things, on an analysis of national and foreign literature on the subject, acts of the European Community and national law, strategic and operational documents of entities at various levels of administration and source data obtained during direct interviews with employees of the largest public transport organiser in the Silesian Voivodeship. The results of the participant observation of the author of the study were also used in the research.

Vehicle fleet electrification: impacts on energy demand, air quality and GHG emissions. An integrated assessment approach

Transport sector is responsible for 25% of European GHG emissions, furthermore it has high impacts on air pollution at various scales. electric mobility is growing fast and it could be effective in reducing road transport GHGs and pollutant emissions, but its potential depends on the energy mix used to produce electricity. In this paper an Integrated Assessment Model is proposed to analyze the energetic transition to an electric vehicle fleet at regional scale. Two scenarios are proposed to assess at the same time which are the impacts of the electric power sources and of the reduced road transport emissions. Results are presented in terms of CO2 emissions, air quality indexes, energy savings and health impacts.

Environmental and Economic Trade-Offs of City Vehicle Fleet Electrification and Photovoltaic Installation in the U.S. PJM Interconnection.

Several cities are considering both photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric vehicles (EVs). A city evaluating a transition to an EV fleet has different decision criteria than private actors. This paper conducts a life cycle assessment and cost-benefit analysis for city vehicle fleet electrification decisions, using Pittsburgh, PA as a case study. The analysis includes several electric-grid scenarios and assesses the installation of distributed PV at city-owned parking facilities. Costs were included while comparing vehicle options, as were the emissions and externality costs of GHGs, SO2, and NOx from direct and upstream effects. For the vehicles under consideration for Pittsburgh's fleet, BEVs were always found to have lower GHG emissions than Hybrids. Lowering external costs with fleet electrification, however, was found to be dependent on a rapid transition to a cleaner grid. A peak capacity of about 6000 kW of PV is possible on Pittsburgh city-owned parking facilities. This capacity would produce greater than 30 times the yearly energy needs of the city's municipal vehicle fleet. However, the PV canopy structures over parking spaces potentially make systems costs prohibitive. This study provides a method for cities, counties, and other stakeholders to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of EVs and PV generation.

Electric Mobility and Smart Mobility Concepts—Restrained Uptake in German Cities

Ninety German cities exceeded the European threshold on NO2 in 2016, 65 of those cities developed countermeasures and strategies that were published in Green City Plans (GCP). In the scope of this study, 55 publicly available GCPs were evaluated in order to assess their potential for traffic turnaround at a municipal level. All GCPs were analyzed to determine in which of the mentioned five to seven fields of action the respective city had planned measures and which fields of action were prioritized. A more in-depth qualitative analysis of the main topics: Electric mobility, public transport, and mobility concepts was carried out. To get a better understanding of the potential impact of the measures elaborated in the GCPs, complementary information on municipal fleet vehicle stocks, requirements of charging infrastructure for public buses and results of the European roadmap on mobility concepts are given. The evaluation of the GCPs showed that to this day, city administrations mainly optimize the current system by measures of electrification and digitization. Electrification of municipal fleets, car-sharing fleets, and public transport buses is in the focus of the strategies. Instruments to increase non-motorised transport, sustainable commercial transport, and/or mobility concepts are mentioned, but play a minor role. However, there still has been no system change in Germany. Therefore, a substantial turnaround of the transport system (“Verkehrswende”) is necessary. This applies to integrated urban and transport planning, flexible, strong, fast PT, non-motorised and flexible operating systems.

The electric bus fleet transition problem

The use of electric bus fleets has become a topical issue in recent years. Several companies and municipalities, either voluntarily or to comply with legal requirements, will transition to greener bus fleets in the next decades. Such transitions are often established by fleet electrification targets, which dictate the number of electric buses that should be in the fleet by a given time period. In this paper we introduce a comprehensive optimization-based decision making tool to support such transitions. More precisely, we present a fleet replacement problem which allows organizations to determine bus replacement plans that will meet their fleet electrification targets in a cost-effective way, namely considering purchase costs, salvage revenues, operating costs, charging infrastructure investments, and demand charges. We account for several charging infrastructure options, such as slow and fast plug-in stations, overhead pantograph chargers, and inductive (wireless) chargers. We refer to this problem as the electric bus fleet transition problem, and we model it as an integer linear program. We apply our model to conduct computational experiments based on several scenarios. We use real data provided by a public transit agency in order to draw insights into optimal transition plans.

Air quality and health benefits from fleet electrification in China

China has emerged as a leading electric vehicle (EV) market, accounting for approximately half of the global EV sales volume. We employed an atmospheric chemistry model to evaluate the air quality impacts from multiple scenarios by considering various EV penetration levels in China and assessed the avoided premature mortality attributed to fine particulate matter and ozone pollution. We find higher fleet electrification ratios can synergistically deliver greater air quality, climate and health benefits. For example, electrifying 27% of private vehicles and a larger proportion of certain commercial fleets can readily reduce the annual concentrations of fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide and summer concentrations of ozone by 2030. This scenario can reduce the number of annual premature deaths nationwide by 17,456 (95% confidence interval: 10,656–22,160), with the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions accounting for ~37% of the total number. The high concentration of health benefits in populous megacities implies that their municipal governments should promote more supportive local incentives. This study further reveals that fleet electrification in China could have more health benefits than net climate benefits in the next decade, which should be realized by policymakers to develop cost-effective strategies for EV development. Wide adoption of electric vehicles can contribute to mitigate climate change and air pollution. Here the authors develop various fleet electrification scenarios in China to evaluate the associated air quality and health impacts to inform sound policies.