Air quality and health benefits from fleet electrification in China

Abstract

China has emerged as a leading electric vehicle (EV) market, accounting for approximately half of the global EV sales volume. We employed an atmospheric chemistry model to evaluate the air quality impacts from multiple scenarios by considering various EV penetration levels in China and assessed the avoided premature mortality attributed to fine particulate matter and ozone pollution. We find higher fleet electrification ratios can synergistically deliver greater air quality, climate and health benefits. For example, electrifying 27% of private vehicles and a larger proportion of certain commercial fleets can readily reduce the annual concentrations of fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide and summer concentrations of ozone by 2030. This scenario can reduce the number of annual premature deaths nationwide by 17,456 (95% confidence interval: 10,656–22,160), with the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions accounting for ~37% of the total number. The high concentration of health benefits in populous megacities implies that their municipal governments should promote more supportive local incentives. This study further reveals that fleet electrification in China could have more health benefits than net climate benefits in the next decade, which should be realized by policymakers to develop cost-effective strategies for EV development. Wide adoption of electric vehicles can contribute to mitigate climate change and air pollution. Here the authors develop various fleet electrification scenarios in China to evaluate the associated air quality and health impacts to inform sound policies.