Flawed Assumptions Research Articles

Bounded rationality and the Brexit negotiations: why Britain failed to understand the EU

ABSTRACT Research on the Brexit negotiations has linked the problems faced by Britain to flawed assumptions in the UK’s perception of EU interests. These include the idea that the EU would be open to compromise on key principles, that it would offer the UK a bespoke relationship, that national capitals would respond favourably to bilateral initiatives, and that EU unity would not hold. Yet the origins of these assumptions have been subject to little systematic scrutiny. How did such wrong-headed assumptions about the EU’s interests emerge? Drawing on insights from bounded rationality we identify three aspects of the decision-making environment linked with biased thinking: (1) ill-fitting routines and lessons, (2) a lack of decision-making openness, and (3) a lack of EU expertize and contact. We demonstrate our argument using data obtained from interviews in Brussels and London in 2017–18 and accounts of those involved in the decisions.

An Efficient K-Persistent Spread Estimator for Traffic Measurement in High-Speed Networks

Traffic measurement in high-speed networks has many important functions in improving network performance, assisting resource allocation, and detecting anomalies. In this paper, we study a generalized problem called ${k}$ -persistent spread estimation, which measures the volume of persist traffic elements in each flow that appear during at least ${k}$ out of ${t}$ measurement periods, where ${k}$ and ${t}$ are two positive integers that can be arbitrarily set in user queries, with ${k} \le {t}$ . Solutions to this problem have interesting applications in network attack detection, popular content identification, user access profiling, etc. There is very limited prior art for this problem, only addressing the special case of ${k} = {t}$ under a flawed assumption. Removing this assumption, we propose an efficient and accurate estimator for generalized ${k}$ -persistent traffic measurement, with ${k} \le {t}$ . Our method relies on bitwise SUM, instead of bitwise AND in the prior art, to combine the information collected from different periods. This change has fundamental impact on the probabilistic analysis that derives the estimator, particular over space-saving virtual bitmaps. Based on real network traces, we demonstrate experimentally the effectiveness of our new method in estimating the ${k}$ -persistent spreads of all network flows. Our estimator performs much better than the prior art on its case of ${k} = {t}$ . We also incorporate a sampling module to the estimator for improved flexibility, and give a use study on how to detect and find DDoS attackers using the proposed estimator.

What we talk about when we talk about pediatric suffering.

In this paper I aim to show why pediatric suffering must be understood as a judgment or evaluation, rather than a mental state. To accomplish this task, first I analyze the various ways that the label of suffering is used in pediatric practice. Out of this analysis emerge what I call the twin poles of pediatric suffering. At one pole sits the belief that infants and children with severe cognitive impairment cannot suffer because they are nonverbal or lack subjective life experience. At the other pole exists the idea that once child suffering reaches some threshold it is ethical to eliminate the sufferer. Concerningly, at both poles, any particular child vanishes from view. Second, in an attempt to identify a theory of suffering inclusive of children, I examine two prominent so-called experiential accounts of suffering. I find them both wanting on account of their absurd entailments and their flawed assumptions regarding the subjective experiences of people who cannot communicate expressively. Finally, I extend arguments found in Alastair MacIntyre’s Dependent Rational Animals to argue that child suffering can be understood only as a set of absences—absences of conditions such as love, warmth, and freedom from pain. An evaluation of these absences reveals the exquisite dependency of children. It also discloses why pediatric suffering is necessarily a social and political event. Unlike adults, children will never be either the authors or the mitigators of their own suffering. Rather, children must rely wholly on others in order to resist suffering, grow, and flourish.

Evaluation of Validity and Specificity of the Cottle Maneuver in Diagnosis of Nasal Valve Collapse.

Despite the widespread use of the Cottle maneuver as a finding to define nasal valve collapse, no studies have confirmed the association between a positive Cottle maneuver and need for nasal valve repair. This study demonstrates the low construct validity of the Cottle maneuver. One hundred healthy volunteer students and employees at Boston Medical Center were recruited for this study. Participants were asked to evaluate their breathing on a 10-point scale, rating their subjective airflow in each nostril while occluding the contralateral nostril, where 0 indicated complete obstruction and 10 indicated complete patency. Following the baseline ratings, participants were asked to rate their breathing once again while examiners preformed the Cottle and modified Cottle maneuvers. Overall, 97 percent of participants reported improved airflow in each nostril following the Cottle maneuver (p < 0.00001); 98 percent reported improved airflow in each nostril following the modified Cottle maneuver (p < 0.00001). If the clinical consensus regarding the observed improvement in nasal airflow is to be followed, nearly all the participants recruited are experiencing some surgically correctable nasal obstruction. Given the population from which our cohort was collected-students and residents from a medical campus-such a conclusion seems extremely unlikely. We believe the more likely explanation for the high positive test rate is flawed assumptions of the Cottle and modified Cottle maneuvers. Therapeutic, V.

Black Metaphors: How Modern Racism Emerged from Medieval Race-Thinking

Black Metaphors: How Modern Racism Emerged from Medieval Race-Thinking

Workplace violence: Examination of the tensions between duty of care, worker safety, and zero tolerance.

Workplace violence (WPV) remains an international problem. This raises challenges for staff in meeting their duty of care to consumers while enforcing zero tolerance for violence directed toward them. The aim of the study was to expose the values and beliefs underpinning practice and reveal any flawed assumptions or evidence, upon which decisions related to WPV are made. By increasing staff awareness, the secondary aim is to decrease staff stress when confronted with conflicting policies and duty of care responsibilities. Explanatory research as part of a larger descriptive study was used. Semistructured interviews with a sample of managers and staff (n = 99) in Victorian Health Services (Australia) were performed. Initial descriptive analysis identified a tension between duty of care, worker safety, and zero tolerance. This article reports the secondary analysis to examine these relationships in depth. Feeling obligated and providing care for aggressive patients was difficult while maintaining own safety: "You cannot do both." Although there were contrasting views about the merits of zero tolerance, policies were rarely enacted: "We cannot refuse to treat." Incongruency between legislative requirements creates confusion for decision-making: "Which Act trumps what?" Despite policies supporting zero tolerance, staff do not enact these because they prioritize duty of care to consumers before duty of care to self. Zero tolerance, with incongruent legislation, compounds this tension and impairs decision-making. This article exposes the underlying values, beliefs, and flawed assumptions underpinning practice related to WPV. Managers need to amend policies to reduce staff confusion, adopt a trauma-sensitive and resilience approach, and develop a clearly written framework to guide decision-making related to duty of care to consumers and staff safety. Incident reports and staff well-being/satisfaction surveys need to evaluate the effects of zero tolerance on staff and consumers. Regulators need to ensue legislative requirements are congruent with staff safety and well-being.

Rethinking youth bulge theory in policy and scholarship: incorporating critical gender analysis

Abstract For decades ‘youth bulge’ theory has dominated understandings of youth in mainstream International Relations. Youth bulge theory has also become part of some public media analyses, mainstream political rhetoric, and even officially enshrined in the foreign policy of some states. Through the ‘youth bulge’ lens, youth—especially males—have been presented as current or future perpetrators of violence. However, this article argues that the youth bulge thesis postulated in mainstream IR is based on flawed theoretical assumptions. In particular, supporters of youth bulge theory fail to engage with existing research by feminist IR scholars and thus take on a biological essentialist approach. This has led to theoretical and practical misunderstandings of the roles youth play in relation to conflict, peace and security. These partial and biased understandings have also resulted in less effective policy-making. In critically reflecting on the ‘youth bulge’ thesis, this article argues that applying gender analysis is crucial to understanding the involvement of young people in general—and young men in particular—in conflict. Doing so will contribute to advancing more accurate analysis in scholarship and policy-making.

Will a character based writing system stop Chinese becoming a global language? A review and reconsideration of the debate

AbstractWhether China’s rise means Chinese becomes a global language like English is a much discussed topic. Most academics and media commentators argue its character based writing system will prevent this because it is difficult and time consuming to learn. In this article I present four counter arguments informed by an analysis of the language practices, language ideologies and language planning surrounding the Chinese writing system and the characteristics of contemporary global English. Firstly, I argue this view is based on the flawed assumption that all learners of Chinese must learn to read and write, and must do so to a native-like level. This does not reflect the global use of English, as not everyone can read and write, and certainly not to a native-like level. People learn as much English as is required for their purposes, and the same would apply if Chinese was a global language. Next, I argue this view ignores the use of devices like computers and mobile phones which convert Pinyin Romanisation into characters, meaning learners need only learn Pinyin and character recognition, saving considerable time and effort. Thirdly, I show there is a historical precedent for the adoption of characters outside of China in the form of the long-standing use of written Chinese for scholarly and official purposes in Korea, Japan and Vietnam. This occurred due to China’s status as the most powerful country in the region, if not the world, and demonstrates people will learn and use characters if there is sufficient reason to do so. Finally, I argue this view focuses excessively on linguistic properties. The inconsistencies and irregularities of English’s writing system show linguistic properties do not determine whether a language becomes global. I conclude a character based writing system will not, in and of itself, prevent Chinese attaining global language status.

Global Citizenship Education, Global Educational Injustice and the Postcolonial Critique

This contribution develops a defence of a universalist conception of Global Citizenship Education (GCE) against three prominent critiques, which are, among others, put forward by postcolonial scholars. The first critique argues that GCE is essentially a project of globally minded elites and therefore expressive both of global educational injustices and of the values and lifestyles of a particular class or milieu. The second critique assumes that GCE is based on genuinely ‘Western values’ (e.g., in the form of a conception of human rights or conceptions of rationality or the self), which are neither universally accepted nor universally valid and therefore unjustly forced on members of non-Western cultures and societies. GCE, according to this critique, is assumed to be another version of the educational justification of a hegemonic and unjust global Western regime. The third critique focuses on the epistemological preconditions of GCE. It assumes that GCE relies on a particular, culturally embedded ‘Western epistemology,’ which perpetuates historically grown global educational and epistemic injustices by dominating and subjugating alternative epistemological approaches. With respect to the first critique I argue that it is to a certain extent sociologically plausible, but wrong when it is applied to the educational and political legitimacy of GCE. The second critique overestimates the consensus within the ‘Western tradition’ and underestimates the transnational dissemination of universalist ideals and values as well as its own reliance on universalist validity claims. I argue that in order to provide a plausible criticism of historically grown global educational and political injustices, it is imperative for GCE to integrate central insights provided by the postcolonial critique, without giving up on universalist ideals and values. The third critique is, according to my argumentation, based on flawed epistemological assumptions, which do not withstand critical scrutiny. Instead of identifying epistemic and scientific claims as the expressions of a particular ‘culture’ or geographical location (the ‘West’), I defend the position that philosophical and scientific research should ideally be conceived as a democratic and universalist project, whose emancipatory potential can only be realized on the basis of a universalist epistemology.

Our Current Misunderstanding of COVID-19 and the Valid Approach to Research: Should We Reopen the World Economy?

The study addresses issues related to the current epidemiological models being used to address the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggests the “curve” is a nebulous fairy tale. Furthermore, I argue that these models are based on invalid data and flawed assumptions. For example, epidemiologists are using a number of positive cases, identified in systematic data collection manners (e.g., primarily testing frontline workers and symptomatic people), as proxy measures for infection rate: I suggest that random sample testing, proportional to population density, would provide an exact measure of infection rate. Finally, I argue that we are not in a position to reopen the world economy until we have these data, we now need a twopronged approach through which we conduct random sample testing for both COVID-19 and COVID-19 antibodies, and that we are about to live in a new world in which physical distancing1 will be the norm.

Rethinking global carbon storage potential of trees. A comment on Bastin et al. (2019)

Bastin et al. 2019 use two flawed assumptions: 1) that the area suitable for restoration does not contain any carbon currently, and 2) that soil organic carbon (SOC) from increased canopy cover will accumulate quickly enough to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. We re-evaluated the potential carbon storage worldwide using empirical relationships of tree cover and carbon. We use global datasets of tree cover, soil organic carbon, and above ground biomass to estimate the empirical relationships of tree cover and carbon stock storage. A more realistic range of global carbon storage potential is between 71.7 and 75.7 GtC globally, with a large uncertainty associated with SOC. This is less than half of the original 205 GtC estimate. The potential global carbon storage of restored forests is much less than that estimated by Bastin et al. 2019. While we agree on the value of assessing global reforestation potential, we suggest caution in considering it the most effective strategy to mitigate anthropogenic emissions. A preprint version of this article was published on 13 August 2019 at https://doi.org/10.1101/730325

Measuring outcomes in trials of interventions for people who self-harm: qualitative study of service users' views.

Patients often have very different ideas from clinicians about what they want treatments to achieve. Their views on what outcomes are important are not always reflected in trials. To elicit the views of people who self-harm on the most commonly used outcome measures and to identify the outcomes that matter to them. We conducted in-depth interviews with 18 people with histories of self-harm, recruited from hospital and community settings. We conducted thematic analysis using a framework approach and used visual mapping to arrive at our final analysis and interpretation. Participants' accounts contained a number of challenges to the validity and meaningfulness of current trial outcome measures. Five broad issues emerged: (a) relationship between frequency and severity of self-harm; (b) behavioural substitution; (b) self-management skills; (d) the role of self-harm as survival tool and affect regulator, and (e) strategic self-presentation. We show how these affect the visibility and measurability of commonly used outcomes. The outcomes that mattered to participants focused on positive achievements in three domains: (a) general functioning and activities of everyday living; (b) social participation, and (c) engagement with services. Participants conceptualised these as both measures and means of sustained improvement. Our findings suggest that current self-harm trial science rests on flawed assumptions about the relationship between mental states and behaviours and about our ability to measure both. Greater understanding of the outcomes that matter to people who self-harm is needed to inform both intervention development and trial design.

Public Health Intervention Framework for Reviving Economy Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic (2): Use of Personalized Mitigation Measures Beyond the Epidemiological Model Limits

We previously proposed a public intervention framework concept that would allow people to resume personal and economic activities. We showed that intervention measures are used in a quantitative scale to reduce transmission probabilities and disease severity. In this article, we systematically examine the origin, assumptions, performance and limitations of epidemiological models from different views used in past review. We found that nearly all model assumptions fail to hold or are remote from reality; R0 does not exit or has no utility in guiding treatment options; personalized intervention measures are vitally important to COVID-19 due to its transmission characteristic; and current epidemiological models are unable to accurately assess the true benefits of personalized intervention measures. We suggest that poor performance of the models are attributed to flawed assumption that health/disease properties can be treated as transferable properties. The flaw creates a fiction that disease properties such as infection probabilities and death risks can be transferred from any vulnerable persons to anyone in the population and thus severely limit societal ability to fight the pandemic. We finally show that the benefits of personalized mitigation measures could be determined directly by using variable Ri values for infected persons (or nodes) together assessment of death rate and disability rate; the attempt of avoiding the disease by defeating all potential transmission probabilities is unrealistic; but mitigating disease severity for specific persons is more feasible and reliable. A most reliable strategy for reviving economy is using personalized protective measures and improving person health before effective vaccine is available. Conflict of interest: None

German Foreign Intelligence from Hitler’s War to the Cold War: Flawed Assumptions and Faulty Analysis. By Robert Hutchinson (Lawrence, University of Kansas Press, 2019) 341 pp. $34.95

<i>German Foreign Intelligence from Hitler’s War to the Cold War: Flawed Assumptions and Faulty Analysis</i>. By Robert Hutchinson (Lawrence, University of Kansas Press, 2019) 341 pp. $34.95

Reassessing Common Ownership: Corrections to Azar, Schmalz, and Tecu (2018)

Azar, Schmalz, and Tecu (2018, “AST”) purport to show a positive relationship between ticket prices and common ownership in the U.S. airline industry. We replicate AST’s results and show that their conclusion is a result of incorrect and unsubstantiated assumptions about: (1) financial incentives of asset managers, (2) corporate control and financial incentives during bankruptcy, and (3) changes in industry structure over time. After correcting any one of these flawed assumptions, we conclude there is no statistically significant association between ticket prices and common ownership.

A new conception of visual aesthetic sensitivity.

Aesthetic sensitivity has been defined as the ability to recognize and appreciate beauty and compositional excellence, and to judge artistic merit according to standards of aesthetic value. The Visual Aesthetic Sensitivity Test (VAST) has often been used to assess this ability, but recent research has revealed it has several psychometric problems. Such problems are not easily remedied, because they reflect flawed assumptions inherent to the concept of aesthetic sensitivity as traditionally understood, and to the VAST itself. We introduce a new conception of aesthetic sensitivity defined as the extent to which someone's aesthetic valuation is influenced by a given feature. Experiment 1 aimed to characterize aesthetic sensitivity to four prominent features in visual aesthetics: complexity, symmetry, contour, and balance. Experiment 2 aimed to replicate the findings of Experiment 1 and to assess the test-retest reliability of an instrument designed to measure aesthetic sensitivity to these features using an abridged set of stimuli. Our results reveal that people differ remarkably in the extent to which visual features influence their liking, highlighting the crucial role of individual variation when modelling aesthetic preferences. We did not find clear relations between the four measures of aesthetic sensitivity and personality, intelligence, and art interest and knowledge. Finally, our measurement instrument exhibited an adequate-to-good test-retest reliability.

Experimental modal analysis of aeroelastic tailored rotor blades in different boundary conditions

Bend-twist coupled blades are intended to reduce the loads on the overall wind turbine by passively adapting to current wind conditions. The coupling results from complex-design shapes and structures using advanced finite element models utilising shell and volume elements. These models are however prone to mispredict the structural dynamic behaviour of the rotor blades. In particular, normal modes with both bending and torsion contributions, as well as local vibrations of the blade shells include computational uncertainties. Therefore, in order to update flawed model parameter assumptions, a modal characterisation of blade prototypes including mode shapes is essential. In the present study results of a modal test campaign involving four identical rotor blades of 20 m length with geometric bend-twist coupling are reported. Design, realisation, and post-processing of the experiments have been carried out under careful consideration of a pre-existing FE shell model. Modal data is obtained at two different stages of the manufacturing process and for one blade in two separate boundary conditions, i.e. free-free in elastic suspensions and clamped to a test rig. Due to the high sensor density in both configurations, the identified normal modes do not only include coupled eigenforms but also mode shapes illustrating cross-sectional vibrations; the latter attributed to the deflection of the blade shells. The acquired dataset is found to be well-suited for the validation of the numerical model and represents a reliable basis for updating.

The Myth of the Placebo Response.

The placebo response is a myth. It does not exist in reality, and continuing to name it is hindering the optimal application of science to healing in medicine. On the surface, it is obvious that, when defined as a biological response to an inert pill (like a sugar pill), the idea of a “response” to a placebo is impossible. Inert treatments by definition do not produce responses. So why do we continue to ponder why people get better from taking inert substances and base our acceptance of legitimate treatments on demonstrating that they go beyond that response? The problem arises because we have flawed assumptions of the value that reductionistic science and the demonstration of specific effects has for healing. To support those flawed assumptions, we support the idea of “the placebo response.” This causes confusion among patients, clinicians, regulators, and even scientists. Legitimate medical treatments have become defined as those that do more than produce a placebo response. An entire pharmaceutical industry and its regulators attempt to control and profit by proving that small molecules produce a clinical effect greater than the placebo response. Billions of dollars are made when that is proven, often even when the size of the response in the active over the placebo group is miniscule. The fact is people heal and that inherent healing capacity is both powerful and influenced by mental, social, and contextual factors that are embedded in every medical encounter since the idea of treatment began. In this chapter, I argue that our understanding of healing and ability to enhance it will be accelerated if we stop using the term “placebo response” and call it what it is—the meaning response, and its special application in medicine called the healing response.

Wouldn't it, too, be nice?

Wouldn't it, too, be nice?

Satisfied with what? Contested assumptions about student expectations and satisfaction in higher education

ABSTRACTThis paper aims to contribute to the contested body of work about the factors influencing student motivation, expectations, engagement and satisfaction in higher education (HE). Policy surrounding the deployment and use of the National Student Survey (NSS) and the Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF) constructs social relationships between teachers and students as calculated instrumental exchanges, whereby, in exchange for the fee they pay, students expect to receive an education designed to ensure they have the knowledge, skills and innovative capabilities required by businesses and the economy in the competitive global market place. Drawing on fieldwork conducted between 2011 and 2015; and using narrative data obtained from face-to-face conversations and email interviews with sampled cohorts of post 30s students enrolled on two vocational degree programmes in a post 1992 university; the paper aims to highlight the flawed assumptions about student expectations, engagement and satisfaction, which fail to acknowledge the positive life-changing impact the higher education experience can have on students and in their work. Bourdieu’s concepts of habitus, field, capital and illusio, and Goffman’s classic pieces on ‘The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life’, ‘Stigma’ and the ‘Cooling out the marks’ process, are used to develop this argument.