Multiplier Effect Research Articles

Measuring the multiplier effect of regional tourism and its spatial distribution in Indonesia before and after the COVID-19

PurposeThe tourism multiplier effect (TME) is the total economic impact of tourism demand, representing the linkages between tourism and other businesses in an area. However, study about it is limited in Indonesia, especially at the provincial level and after the COVID-19 crisis. This study aims to estimate the TME in all provinces of Indonesia, test its differences in priority and non-priority areas before and after the COVID-19 crisis, analyze its spatial distribution and examine the determinant factor of TMEDesign/methodology/approachThis study applies an input-output model to measure the TME of all provinces in Indonesia, an independent sample t-test to examine the similarity of TME in priority and nonpriority areas, a paired sample t-test to examine the similarity of it before and after the COVID-19 crisis, and spatial analysis to check its spatial relationship.FindingsThe result shows that regional TME ranges from 1.25 to 2.05 in 2019, which changed slightly over time. The empirical result shows the TME difference before and after the COVID-19 crisis, and there is a spatial correlation in terms of TME with the hot spots are clustered in the eastern region of Indonesia, However, there was a slight change in the position of hot spots during the COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, the spatial model shows that value-added and employment in agriculture, manufacturing, trade and transportation affect the size of TME.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the academic literature by providing the first estimate of the TME at the provincial level in Indonesia, comparing the it in priority and non-priority areas before and after the COVID-19 crisis, and mapping its spatial distribution.

Credit Channel Transmission of Monetary Policy: How to Promote Growth in Indonesia?

Credit plays a significant part in supporting the public economy and as a driver of financial development. Banking facilitates households and companies as deficit spending units to finance their consumption and investment. This encourages the economic growth through increased aggregate demand. This research aims to analyze the transmission of monetary policy in Indonesia through credit channel, how the monetary policy affects economic growth. For monthly data 2017-2022, with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Vector Auto Regressive (VAR), the research results show that economic growth provides a negative response to consumption shocks on the household liquidity effect credit channel. While through the balance sheet channel, economic growth responds positively to investment shocks. The balance sheet channel is more effective in transmitting monetary policy credit channels targeting economic growth in Indonesia during the research period. Investment as an engine of growth is achieved through optimizing the role of banking intermediation in productive rather than consumer financing because it has a greater multiplier effect on the economy

Transformation to a renewable electricity system in Austria: Insights from an integrated model analysis

We analyse the (techno- and macro-)economic and distributive effects of a transformation to a renewable electricity system in Austria by 2030, as stipulated by the Austrian government. For the analysis, the macroeconomic model DYNK and ATLANTIS, a partial model of the electricity market, were expanded and linked. Four transformation scenarios conforming with the 100% renewable electricity target in Austria on a national balance are examined, integrated into a consistent scenario for the development of the European electricity system. Additionally, sensitivity analyses with respect to the gas price are performed. Although all scenarios achieve 100% renewable electricity on a national balance, the analysis shows that electricity from gas-fired power plants will still be needed in 2030 to balance variable renewable generation, to avoid grid congestion, and for heat generation from combined heat and power plants in winter months. Another main conclusion from the simulations is that the transition towards a renewable electricity sector is almost neutral from a socio-economic perspective. It does neither reveal harmful impacts nor lead to high multiplier effects from additional investment. With high natural gas prices in the sensitivity scenarios a decrease in GDP and household income, which might motivate redistributive policies, can be observed.

The recovery and resilience plan on the long-term care system. Towards a deinstitutionalization?

After the crisis caused by Covid-19, among other socioeconomic problems, the fragility of the organizations that make up the Spanish Long-Term Care System was revealed. These events prompted the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). The aim of this study is to estimate the socioeconomic impact on Long-Term Care (LTC) of the investment delivered by the RRP. In addition, to fulfil our main aim, a secondary and necessary aim was to calculate the most current social accounting matrix (SAM) of the Spanish economy. We analyse the components of the demand linked to the RRP investment allocated to LTC, and subsequently, based on Input-Output methodology, we calculate a social accounting matrix (SAM) of the Spanish economy to estimate the overall economic return. The results obtained using the SAM model proposed herein evidence the multiplier effect of the RRP invested in LTC. Every euro allocated to the RRP generates 4 euros in income for Households, Firms and the External Sector, 3.4 euros in industrial output, and returns 0.6 euros in taxes and social contributions to the Government. This also entails creating 26,410 direct and indirect jobs as well as 10,059 induced ones. Given the severe recession scenario triggered by the consequences of COVID-19, the results of this study highlight the significant multiplier effect that RRP investment may generate to alleviate the downturn in the Spanish economy and, more specifically, in the Spanish LTC System.

Strategic Planning Documents Assessment of the Russian Far East

In the article we analyze strategic planning documents on the Russian Far East socio-economic development. The study is based on a combination of quantitative methods (e. g. regression and correlation analysis, modeling, average method, index method, difference of differences method, factor analysis) and qualitative methods (document analysis, case study, best practice identification, classification method, SWOT analysis). We proposed an index of socio-economic development and revealed that the activation of the regulation have a multiplier effect in a generally positive impact on the Far Eastern regions development. Forecasting showed that in the medium term, the scenario of moderate growth can be considered the most likely. We developed some proposals to improve the strategic planning documents efficiency. In particular, “point” tools should be integrated to ensure a complex planning. Each planning document should provide for the possibility of statistical evaluation. It is necessary to justify the introduction of new strategic priorities, and monitoring should be carried out not only during the implementation of the document (in actu ), but also after its completion ( ex post).

Building “Porang” processing industry using supply chain management method

Wonogiri Regency is one of the leading porang producing regions in Indonesia, but the potential of its industry is still largely unexplored. Currently, business actors market corms and chips in East Java Province, resulting in a multiplier effect. This is because these actors cover only a small portion of the region. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop porang processing industry model through Supply Chain Management method. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative methods with Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) analysis. The triangulation method was used to cross-examine data at the respondents’ level. Based on the results, processed product demand, supplier engagement in the production process, and glucomannan production technology were the sub-criteria with the greatest effect on supply chain management. Furthermore, market access was identified as the major factor influenced by other sub-criteria. The strategies for establishing processing industry based on the 18 sub-criteria were in the linkage quadrant, showing the presence of high effect and interconnection. Variables in this sector must be investigated carefully because the relationship between variables is unstable. Every action on this variable will affect others and the feedback effect can magnify the impact. The strategy implemented must undergo various reviews to obtain best results. The findings of this study can be used as a reference for stakeholders to strengthen competitive advantage and implementing effective strategies

The Capital Market Reaction and the Influencing Mechanism of the Establishment of the Data Basic Institutional System

This study uses a sample of A-share listed companies to investigate the impact of China’s Data Basic Institutional System on capital market reactions and the mechanism by which it exerts influence. The findings reveal that within a 5-day period before and after the policy announcement, listed companies with high data resources experience a significantly higher abnormal return compared to those with low data resources. Moreover, this difference becomes more pronounced as enterprise technology intensity increases. Furthermore, the policy enhances the capital market’s perception of the value of data resources and its potential for generating multiplier effects. Additional tests confirm that post-implementation of the policy, the capital market reevaluates the long-term value of enterprises associated with data resources. This comprehensive examination contributes empirical evidence to support academic research, inform policy formulation, and guide strategic planning in relevant industries.

The unfree, the freer, and the government: Economic freedom and the fiscal multiplier

We investigate the causal effect of government spending on real output conditional on economic freedom. Using data for 161 countries from 2000 to 2019 results show, first, that the size of the fiscal multiplier is inversely related to the level of freedom and, second, countries with the mean level of economic freedom of the sample (6.9) had a multiplier of around 1. Developed countries are characterized by high levels of freedom and a fiscal multiplier lower than 1 while developing countries exhibit a fiscal multiplier higher than 1 and low levels of freedom. The differences between countries with low and high economic freedom in their fiscal multipliers are asymmetric, in fiscal contractions are higher. We conclude that countries should strengthen institutions to promote economic freedom and development.

The impact of diversification of the oil and gas complex on economy of the national Kazakhstan

Diversification of the oil and gas complex of Kazakhstan is aimed not only at the development and development of oil and gas fields, but also at the further development of the manufacturing industry, in particular, at the construction of new and modernization of existing oil refining capacities. The article presents the results of analytical and research work to determine the effects of diversification on the national economy of Kazakhstan in the case of the construction of a new oil refinery and the modernization of existing production. At the stage of construction of oil refineries, indirect effects for the country's economy mainly appear, as a share of Kazakhstani content. In addition, the activities of the oil refining sector have a multiplier effect on the inter-industry balance in the structure of the national economy. The results of previously conducted studies are presented with an emphasis on multiplier effects, in which economic development takes place in other industries that are most interconnected with the petroleum products production sector. The purpose of the study is to reveal the economic effects for the economy of Kazakhstan when expanding production of oil refining products with added value.

Fiscal multipliers in the new Keynesian model: the influence of government spending on economic output

Fiscal multipliers in the new Keynesian model: the influence of government spending on economic output

Economic Principle Analysis of High-speed Railway Station Setting

China’s construction of high-speed rail has accomplished outstanding achievements that have drawn attention from around the world and have played a significant role in driving economic and social development. To investigate the reasons behind the competition between neighboring cities in the region during the process of setting up a high-speed railroad station, the economic principles of high-speed railway construction and operation station setup and its role effect are analyzed using the theories of investment multiplier, spatial spillover, and pole-axis. This is intended to solve the mystery surrounding the competition for the station between neighboring regions and offer theoretical support for the science of high-speed railway station setup. The result of the study demonstrates that the construction and operation of high-speed railway has significant spatial spillover effects that effectively enhance local employment levels and promote the coordinated development of the regional economy along the routes, in addition to having multiplier effects on national income that cause the regional economy to grow exponentially.

THE MINING INDUSTRY AND THE RESILIENCE OF THE ECONOMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARTSAKH

During the period of independence, the mining industry has been the driving force behind the development of the Artsakh economy. It has contributed significantly to the country's gross domestic product, state revenues, exports, foreign investments, foreign currency inflow, and employment. The analysis of development trends in the mining industry is crucial for assessing the economic growth. It is well-known that the multiplier effect of the mining industry globally surpasses that of agriculture, energy, financial services, trade, and public catering sectors. However, external influences such as wars and epidemics can disrupt this sector, with the negative multiplier effect spreading to other branches of the economy. This article aims to uncover the connections between the mining industry and the overall economic resilience of Artsakh. To achieve this, we studied the development trajectory of the mining sector, its interactions with other economic sectors, and its effects on macroeconomic indicators. Fundamental research on the subsurface resources of Artsakh was not carried out, resulting in a lack of accurate assessment of this component of the national wealth. Nevertheless, the mining industry provides significant impetus for the economy, becoming the main engine of economic growth. Armenia's economy would certainly benefit more if existing resources were used efficiently and if the republic advanced through the stages of processing these resources.

GOVERNMENTEXPENDITUREONECONOMICGROWTH:EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM GHANA

In free market finance, the government plays an essential role. The government really does a lot for an economy. When markets can't solve problems on their own, governments must step in to offer public goods, address externalities, and enforce competition. The issue for every economy that wants its government to fulfill its function is finding the right size of government (total expenditures by the government as a percentage of GDP) to promote long-term prosperity. Government spending in Ghana has increased over the previous two decades, according to data on fiscal behavior, but GDP growth has lagged behind. Using a time series data analysis, this study aimed to shed new empirical light on the connection between government size and economic growth in Ghana, as well as identify the optimal threshold level at which government final consumption may contribute to rapid development. The research found that higher levels of government spending contributed directly to economic expansion. The analysis concluded that a threshold of 0.114% for government spending was optimal for promoting growth in the economy. Therefore, the study urges fiscal discipline and control to maintain the optimal level of government spending, which would have a multiplier effect on other parts of the economy and prevent crowding out.

Leontief Model-Based Research on the Input Structure of Three Industries: A Markowitz Optimization Perspective

Abstract Economic growth necessitates not only the balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand but also the structural equilibrium among various industries. This paper integrates the input-output table into the Leontief dynamic model, utilizing Markowitz’s theory to construct an investment portfolio of inputs and outputs. Further, it develops an input multiplier model for three distinct industries by amalgamating the Keynesian multiplier theory. It outlines a methodology to compute the influence and inductance coefficients of industrial interrelations. Employing the input-output table from HB province spanning 2010 to 2020, this study examines the input dynamics, investment multipliers, industrial structure, and inter-industry correlations. Over this period, the labor input structure of the primary industry witnessed a decline of 18.36%, while the investment multiplier for total output was augmented by 5.107 units for every unit increase in equipment manufacturing products. Between 2015 and 2020, the influence and inductance coefficients for the three industries rose by 11.21% and 4.45%, respectively, all constrained by the secondary industry. To stabilize the input structure across the three sectors and bolster sustained economic growth, it is imperative to liberate the relevant inputs of the secondary industry and enhance those of the primary and tertiary sectors.

State dependent fiscal multipliers in a Small Open Economy

State dependent fiscal multipliers in a Small Open Economy

The Influence of Internet-Derived Misinformation on Medical Treatment Decisions: A Social Learning Perspective

Purpose “Internet-Derived Information Obstructing Treatment” refers to the phenomenon where patients make their health decisions based on misinformation found online, leading to poor or harmful medical choices. DeGroot’s social learning model is used in this study to enquire at how false information spreads on the internet and influences people’s choices about treatment. We examine how likely patients will choose the wrong treatment, impacting their mental health, such as by making anxiety and depression symptoms worse. In addition, we examine the dynamics of low, high, and mixed levels of influence in the spread of false information. Methods We derived a mathematical framework to analyse the impact of peer-to-peer information sharing on medical decisions using DeGroot’s social learning model by modelling the process of belief updates in digital health networks. Each person’s decision-making is impacted by the views and information they encounter from others; this is known as the multiplier effect of social learning and is incorporated into the model. This method mimics the increasing likelihood that patients will encounter health-related disinformation as they engage with various online communities. Low misinformation influence, high misinformation influence, and mixed initial beliefs were the three scenarios that were modelled in the study. Treatment choices and mental health results were evaluated in light of each scenario. Based on patients’ exposure to false information through internet platforms, the odds ratios (ORs) for negative medical decisions, anxiety, and depression were computed. Results In all of these situations, people were much more likely to make a bad treatment choice when they had incorrect information. Repeated interactions with peers who had been influenced by online false information raised patients’ chances of making bad treatment choices by 50% in the high misinformation scenario (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25–1.80). Some patients who were given false information had 40% more anxiety and 35% more depression (OR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.10–1.70 and OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.05–1.65, respectively). According to the model, social learning made false information more powerful, and this was most clear in situations where false information was common. Conclusion DeGroot’s social learning process is a good way to explain how false information found on the internet can affect a patient’s choice of treatment and mental health. Misinformation from the internet can lead to bad medical decisions and higher mental health risks, especially in networks where peers have a lot of power. The results stress the need for targeted interventions to improve digital health literacy and stop the spread of false information in online health communities. Future research should look into ways to stop the social learning processes that keep spreading false information.

Governance and Social Sustainability Reporting and Financial Performance of Listed Oil and Gas Firms in Nigeria

The realization that being socially and environmentally responsible can facilitate long-term growth goals, raise productivity and optimize shareholder value has made sustainability issue a major concern for businesses of all sizes to preserve capital for future generations. This study examines the effect of governance sustainability reporting and social sustainability reporting on financial performance of listed oil and gas firms in Nigeria. The ex-po facto research design was adopted with reliance on secondary data from annual report of listed oil and gas firms. The Judgemental sampling technique was employed in selecting the 9 firms out of 10 oil and gas firms in Nigeria for 2011-2022 financial year. Panel regression estimation was used which is random effect by Hausman test which was analyzed using E-views 10. The findings show that governance sustainability reporting and social sustainability reporting has positive significant effect on return on equity of oil and gas firms in Nigeria. The study concludes that that governance sustainability reporting and social sustainability reporting has a positive significant effect on financial performance of listed oil and gas firms in Nigeria. The recommendation is based on the findings of this study that management of listed oil and gas firms in Nigeria should compliance with governance sustainability reporting and social sustainability reporting and be made mandatory for firms and the guidelines for sustainability reporting assessment should be established to compel companies to accommodate sustainability reporting disclosure because of the multiplier effect on financial performance of the firm.

Phosphate Mining and Labour in Western Sahara – Dynamics of the Fosbucraa Rent (1969-1975)

Phosphate mining is a key issue in the modern history of both Western Sahara and Morocco. Until 1975 it also affected Spain, as Western Sahara’s phosphates were exploited during the colonial period. In the early 1970s, phosphate mining generated super-profits. The Spanish state was the sole owner of the Bucraa deposit and used its ephemeral but significant super profits for two purposes: to subsidize the Spanish fertilizer industry and, for political reasons, to inflate spending in the Saharan budgets. However, Fosbucraa’s profit maximization and the “development” of the Sahara quickly came into contradiction. The company employed relatively few workers and discriminated against them. Meanwhile, the multiplier effects of Fosbucraa’s investment were rapidly changing the Saharawi way of life. A traditional nomadic society was becoming a peripheral society, dependent on jobs, subsidies and scholarships. The result of these two contradictions resulted in a social blockade: a model of accumulation incompatible with the expectations of young workers, technicians and students. The industrial conflict and anti-colonial action are part of this broader context.

Strategic management development of municipal autonomous institution

The article studies the activities results of the municipal and autonomous institution of additional education.The peculiarities of autonomous institutions, particularly in the financial sector are formulated. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the directions of strategic development of a municipal and autonomous institution in physical culture and sports. The authors studied the indicators dynamics of the institution’s activity, reported the results of extra-budgetary activities. Based on the social significance of the services provided, the author’s approach focuses on expanding the consumer segment. The novelty of the research results is determined by the introduction of adaptive programs of additional education for children with disabilities. The identification of the directions for development determines the formulation of recommendations that are most in demand, real, and rational in relation to the resource provision of the institution. The conclusion states that there is potential to achieve a multiplier effect in terms of strategic management of a municipal and autonomous institution through systematic physical education and sports in the municipality, resulting in increased economic and social benefits.

Economic & Social Sustainability Reporting and Financial Performance of Listed Oil and Gas Firms in Nigeria

The continuous and ever-increasing awareness that being socially and environmentally responsible can facilitate long-term growth, goals, raise productivity and optimize shareholder value has made sustainability issue a major concern for businesses of all sizes to preserve capital for future generations. This study examines the effect of economic and social sustainability reporting on return on capital employed of listed oil and gas firms in Nigeria. The ex-po facto research design was adopted and secondary data from annual report of listed oil and gas firms. The purposive sampling techniques was employed in selecting the 9 firms out of 10 oil and gas firms in Nigeria for 2011-2022 financial year. Panel regression estimation and fixed effect was used to analyze the result. The finding revealed that both economic and social sustainability reporting has negative significant effect on return on capital employed of oil and gas firms in Nigeria. The study concludes that economic and social sustainability reporting has a negative insignificant effect on return on capital employed of listed oil and gas firms in Nigeria. The study recommends that management of listed oil and gas firms in Nigeria should improve voluntary compliance with Economic sustainability reporting and social sustainability reporting and should not be compelled for sustainability reporting disclosure because of the negative multiplier effect on return on capital employed of oil industries in Nigeria.