Financial Crisis Research Articles

The Presidency of Bill Clinton after Thirty Years: A Review Article

Abstract Did Bill Clinton destroy the U.S. economy? In a recent book, Nelson Lichtenstein and Judith Stein offer a scathing new critique. In this account, Clinton not only ravaged the United States in his own time but is largely to blame for America's subsequent economic inequality, monopolistic corporations, the Great Financial Crisis, the rise of China, and the advent of Trumpism. And yet, the economic data speak well of the Clinton presidency. He fares poorly on the trade deficit and economic inequality but otherwise delivered a balanced economic boom, far better than most administrations of the past fifty years. How do we square the withering criticisms of Lichtenstein and Stein with Clinton's economic achievements? It is correct that globalization and technological change tend to hurt blue-collar workers. And because Clinton embraced these forces and sought to place the United States at their headwaters, he may, indeed, be a “fabulous failure” from Lichtenstein and Stein's perspective. But the authors, each a labor historian and advocate, willfully dismiss the benefits that the nation as a whole, including workers and their children, enjoyed under Clinton. They also ignore the financial and military crises that Clinton averted. Overall, the Clinton administration created a wealthier and more competitive economy, albeit at the expense of those workers most vulnerable and least able to change. That is, Clinton helped transform the U.S. economy, just not along the lines that Lichtenstein and Stein prefer.

A study on the backtesting and correlation of systemic risk in Chinese financial institutions: an empirical analysis based on MES and Delta CoVaR

Effectively measuring the risk level of financial institutions is the key to preventing and defusing systemic risks. This paper uses the unconditional coverage test method to backtest the systemic risk of 35 listed financial institutions in China, and uses the quantile coherence method to construct a quantile frequency domain correlation network to explore the frequency domain mechanism of systemic risk correlation of financial institutions. The study found that: (1) During the financial market crisis, the Delta CoVaR commonly used systemic risk measurement indicators such as MES, CoVaR, and failed to effectively measure the systemic risk of China's financial institutions. (2) Compared with the short-term correlation layer and the medium-term correlation layer, China's financial institutions have obvious extreme risk linkage effects in the long-term correlation layer.(3) In the short-term, medium-term and long-term correlation layers, small and medium-sized financial institutions such as Ningbo Bank, Industrial Securities and Dongfang Energy all have high correlation importance. Relevant departments should pay attention to preventing the risk of "too correlated to fail" of small and medium-sized financial institutions in my country.

A Farewell to the Narcissism Epidemic? A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis of Global NPI Scores (1982-2023).

Several recent accounts have failed to replicate the so-called Narcissism Epidemic, suggesting potential influences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008 as a reason for narcissism trend reversals. Here, we provide evidence for narcissism test score changes from 1982 to 2023. We investigated self-report data on the Narcissistic Personality Inventory (NPI) from 1105 studies (k = 1621, N = 546,225) using precision-weighted cross-temporal meta-analysis. Data collection years were meaningfully negatively associated with narcissism scores in virtually all analyses (bs: -0.409 to -0.008; partial eta square's: < 0.001 to 0.118; ps: < 0.001 to 0.174), thus indicating cross-temporally decreasing narcissism self-report scores. Examination of regression segments pre- and post-dating the GFC and segmented line regressions indicated mostly stable narcissism scores during the 1980s and 1990s that subsequently showed negative slopes with somewhat differing decreases onsets according to analytical subsets. Here, we provide evidence for negative cross-temporal changes in narcissism from 1982 to 2023 globally, thus contrasting the idea of a Narcissism Epidemic having taken place at any point during the past four decades. Changes appear to generalize across different regions and participant sex, although mean scores were differentiated, yielding higher narcissism values for North American and younger samples.

ERM strategies for navigating financial stress: Lessons from US commercial banks

This study explores the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) strategies employed by U.S. commercial banks during times of financial stress, with a focus on the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It investigates how ERM frameworks enable banks to make risk-adjusted decisions and effectively manage credit risk, ensuring both operational resilience and long-term value preservation. The research highlights the critical role of ERM in guiding banks through periods of market volatility, emphasizing the need for a structured approach to risk identification, assessment, and mitigation. Through a detailed analysis, the study examines how commercial banks have adjusted their risk appetite and governance structures in response to economic disruptions, balancing short-term stability with long-term growth objectives. Key ERM components such as capital adequacy, liquidity management, and stress testing are reviewed to demonstrate their effectiveness in safeguarding financial institutions. Additionally, the research discusses the importance of leadership and governance in enhancing risk oversight and fostering a culture of risk awareness across banking operations. The findings offer valuable lessons for financial institutions on how to navigate future financial stresses by leveraging robust ERM frameworks. By examining these strategies, the paper provides insights into the adaptability and resilience of U.S. commercial banks in maintaining financial stability and shareholder value in the face of uncertainty.. Keywords: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), Financial Stress, Credit Risk Management, Operational Resilience, U.S. Commercial Banks, Governance Structures.

Shock resistors or transmitters? Contagion across industries and countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis

We examine how global shocks from various sources propagate across industries and countries. Financial contagion is measured using residual-based and volatility-adjusted correlation. Specific industries and countries were resilient during both global crises, while others played a significant role in transmitting shocks.

Banks’ portfolio of government debt and sovereign risk: From safe havens to stormy seas

We analyse domestic, foreign, and central banks holdings of public debt for 31 countries for the period of 1989–2022, applying panel regressions and quantile analysis. We conclude that contrarily to what we observe before 2010, we found that after 2010 an increase in sovereign risk raises the share of domestic banks’ portfolio of public debt and reduces the percentage holdings in the case of central banks. Better sovereign rations also increase (decrease) the share of commercial (central) banks holdings. Furthermore, the effects of an increment in the risk for domestic investors have increased since the 2010 financial crisis.11We thank the Editor and two anonymous referees for the useful comments. We thank João Santos Silva for clarifications on the Stata quantile procedure. This work was supported by the FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) [grant number UIDB/05069/2020]. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the authors’ employers. Any remaining errors are the authors’ sole responsibility.

A historical analysis of the banking system and its impact on Greek economy

This paper outlines the critical role of banks in the Greek economy, emphasizing their importance for maintaining stability and fostering financial growth. It traces the historical development of the Greek banking system, examines its current structure, and explores future challenges and opportunities. The paper adopts a historical-analytical approach, beginning with a comprehensive review of the Greek banking system’s evolution. It then delves into four key pillars, regulation, function, accessibility, and societal impact, to provide an in-depth analysis of the banking sector. This method allows for a well-rounded understanding of both the historical context and the current dynamics influencing the Greek financial landscape. The Greek banking system has been a pivotal player in the country’s economic development, especially during periods of recovery and growth. Post-2008, the global financial crisis exposed significant weaknesses in the banking sector, including a prevailing deficit of confidence. Regulatory reforms, while effective in some areas, have left challenges related to accessibility, societal trust, and economic resilience. The need for further reforms, especially in digital banking and transparency, is identified as crucial for long-term stability and growth. Conclusion: Greek banks remain essential to the national economy, yet they face considerable challenges, especially regarding public confidence and systemic risks. Addressing these issues through targeted reforms is vital for creating a more resilient and sustainable future for the Greek banking sector. The paper provides actionable recommendations for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of strengthening regulatory frameworks, enhancing accessibility to financial services, and fostering societal trust through improved transparency. The recommendations aim to help the Greek banking sector navigate future uncertainties while supporting economic growth.

Fiscal Stimulus, Deposit Competition, and the Rise of Shadow Banking: Evidence from China

The rise of shadow banking and attendant financial fragility in China can be traced to intensified deposit competition following the 2008–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). A large, state-owned bank’s deposits from cross-border money inflows fell significantly following the GFC, and it supported the government’s fiscal stimulus more aggressively than other large banks by issuing larger volumes of new loans. Small and medium-sized banks with more branch-level overlaps with this large bank relied more on shadow banking and issued more wealth management products (WMPs)—short-maturity, off-balance-sheet substitutes for deposits. Greater amounts of WMPs created rollover risks for the issuers, as reflected by higher yields on new WMPs, higher borrowing rates in the interbank market, and lower stock-market performance during liquidity stress. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 71272024, 71972051, and 72071117]. Supplemental Material: The internet appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.04233 .

Pricing of timer volatility-barrier options under Heston’s stochastic volatility model

Timer options are financial instruments that enable investors to exercise their rights on a random maturity date the realized variance reaches the level of variance budget. These options provide a stable investment opportunity for investors under the unpredictable and complex financial markets, such as global financial crisis or COVID-19 pandemic, which can induce the drastic changes of the volatility for the underlying asset. Meanwhile, in the financial markets, investors who invest in standard timer options may face the problems caused by the postponement of the exercising time for too low volatility, compared to standard vanilla options. In this regard, to overcome such disadvantages, we propose timer volatility-barrier options, which are activated and expired when the volatility arrives at a relatively low barrier level, with the original properties of the standard timer options. In this paper, by making use of the method of images, we derive an analytical formulas for the timer volatility-barrier options so that the volatility process can be driven by Heston stochastic volatility model, and verify the pricing accuracy of the timer options by comparing our solutions with those obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we conduct numerical studies on the timer volatility-barrier options to examine the pricing sensitivities with respect to the various model parameters, and implement the discussion for pricing formula of double volatility barrier type of the timer options.

Analisis Kinerja Keuangan Bank BUMN dan Bank Swasta Indonesia: Studi Komparatif

Purpose: This study assesses and compares the financial performance of state-owned and private banks in Indonesia from 2019 to 2021. This study focuses on evaluating key financial indicators to monitor the financial structure and efficiency of banking institutions continuously amid increasing competition in the banking sector. Methodology: This study utilizes several financial ratios and applies independent sample t-tests to analyze the financial performance of state-owned and private banks. The key ratios analyzed include (Equity to Total Assets Ratio), ECTAR (Equity to Customer Assets Ratio), IMAEAR (interest margin to average earnings assets ratio), LLCR (Loan Loss Coverage Ratio), DTCR (Debt to Capital Ratio), LDR (Loan to Deposit Ratio), and CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio). Results: State-owned banks are financially weaker than private banks. Furthermore, there is no significant difference in the average financial performance of state-owned and private banks when measured using EATAR and ECTAR ratios. However, clear differences are observed between these two banking groups in terms of the IMAEAR, LLCR, DTCR, LDR, and CAR ratios. Limitations: This study is limited to the analysis of financial performance from 2019 to 2021, which may not fully capture long-term trends or the impact of external economic conditions, such as global financial crises or regulatory changes. Additionally, this study focuses only on a specific set of financial ratios. Contribution: This study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a comparative analysis of the financial performance of state-owned and private Indonesian banks. It offers valuable insights for banking institutions, regulators, and investors on how financial performance differs across banking groups, highlighting areas where state-owned banks may need to improve their financial strength.

거시경제학의 근본적인 문제점: 항등식을 인과성으로 사용

GDP, which only measures the value of the final product, ignores the various production processes that take place in the real world before the final product is produced. In this sense, GDP is not a reflection of the real world, but rather an artificially constructed measure of a ‘fictitious economy’. A bigger problem with GDP is that the identity equation, by which GDP is expressed as the sum of consumer spending, business investment spending, government spending, and net exports, is used in a causal way. Using this identity equation, governments often implement policies that increase spending to stimulate the economy and grow the economy. However, the principle of human behavior that one must first produce in order to consume implies that production is the cause and consumption is the effect. The idea, which implies that consumption is the cause, is thus incorrect because it goes against the principle of human behavior. This idea is based on Keynes's theory. Keynes's theory, as presented in his General Theory, is a misinterpretation of Say's Law of the Market, which states that “when one product is produced, it creates a demand for another product,” as “supply creates its own demand.” Macroeconomics, which was started based on the wrong Keynes' theory, is also a theory that is far from the real world and does not explain the economic problems that are occurring in the real world, such as the financial crisis. Therefore, in order for macroeconomics to properly explain the real world, it is necessary to establish a new macroeconomics. The new macroeconomics should be based on the principles of human behavior and should include the actual production process and the activities of entrepreneurs, who play an important role in the production process. The Austrian Business Cycle Theory, which covers these aspects, can serve as the cornerstone of a new macroeconomic theory.

Reverse mixed ownership reform and financial risks in private enterprise

The mixed ownership reform is an important part of the economic restructuring in our country. In addition to the participation of non-state-owned capital in soes, it is also more and more common for state-owned capital to participate in the reverse mixed ownership reform of private enterprises. As an important force in China's economic development, the national economy has entered a new normal in recent years, and due to the impact of COVID-19, the Sino-US trade war and other events, many private enterprises have fallen into financial crisis and entered a "wave of closure." Based on this background, this paper empirically studies the impact of state-owned capital shareholding on the financial risk of private enterprises by using the sample of A-share listed enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock exchanges from 2007 to 2021. In addition, this paper also discusses the influencing mechanism from two aspects of resource acquisition and governance supervision, and further analyzes that the effect of reverse mixed ownership reform of private enterprises on reducing financial risk mainly comes from the shareholding of state-owned non-financial institutions. This paper enriches the research on the economic consequences of reverse mixed ownership reform and the influencing factors of financial risks, and provides new ideas for improving the ability of private enterprises to prevent financial risks and promoting the healthy and stable development of private enterprises.

The Impact of Bilateral Currency Swaps on Outward Foreign Direct Investment

The outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis caused many countries around the world to face exchange rate fluctuations and currency crises. At the same time, China's central bank creatively began to sign central bank currency swap agreements with other countries to stabilize exchange rates and avoid the risk of fluctuations in the US dollar. This article is based on panel data from 90 countries from 2000 to 2021, and uses empirical analysis methods to explore the impact of currency swap agreements on China's outward foreign direct investment. On this basis, the intermediary effect is applied to analyze the financial market mechanism of currency swap policy. Research has found that currency swap agreements have a significant positive impact on the scale of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Financing constraints are an important influencing mechanism for currency swap agreements to promote China's OFDI. In the context of economic globalization and complex international situations, this study has important reference value for China to further promote deepening cooperation in the financial field between countries and promote the internationalization of the renminbi to facilitate the domestic and international dual circulation.

Governance, institutional quality and economic complexity in selected African countries

AbstractNew economic thinking speculates that the diversification and sophistication of economic capabilities/structures is key in explaining why African countries lag in development behind the rest of the world. We question the extent to which non-traditional growth factors such as governance and institutional quality are related to economic complexity for 35 African countries. We estimate panel GMM regressions using 8 different measures of governance/institutional quality for both linear and kinked regressions using annual data collected between 1996 and 2021. The baseline estimates reveal a positive linear relationship between most measures of governance and institutional quality and economic complexity. Our sensitivity analysis further show that institutions/governance have stronger relationship with economic complexity in the post-global financial crisis era. Moreover, nonlinear or kinked relationships emerge once the data is segregated into different income and resource abundant groups. Altogether, our findings of a nonlinear relationship between institutions/governance and economic complexity are novel to the literature and offer unique insights on how African policymakers can use governance/institutions for improving the complexity of production processes.

Building Advanced Early Alarm Systems for Predicting Financial Crises: A Future Vision for Fiscal Policy in Iraq

The accelerating repercussions of financial crises that struck the world have significantly affected global economies in general and the banking sector in particular. These crises, characterized by banking failures, have prompted financial institutions to develop models, systems, and early warning indicators to predict banking crises and avoid the negative effects of cyclical fluctuations and unexpected shocks. This research aims to lay the foundation for an early warning system to monitor financial disturbances in Iraq. The goal is to identify financial imbalances, prevent the collapse of Iraqi financial institutions, and shield the economy from financial and monetary crises.

Temporary Labor Migration from Sri Lanka to Gulf Cooperation Countries: Analyzing Labor Trafficking Amidst the Financial Crisis

Background and Aims: The financial crisis in Sri Lanka (SL) has marked a significant growth in temporary labor migration to Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC). Temporary labor migration refers to migration from one state to another in pursuit of employment opportunities for a temporary period. The National Policy on Migration for Employment (NPME) and the National Action Plan of SL asserted the importance of developing labor migration policies in response to the country’s severe need for remittances during the financial crisis. A financial crisis occurs when a country's expenditure exceeds its national income, resulting in a shortage of goods and services for its citizens. Along with this understanding, this paper examines how the temporary labor migration from SL to GCC has developed in response to the financial crisis in the country. It argues that reforming labor migration policies solely based on remittance does not appear to be adequate to protect migrants from trafficking. In this setting, the key research question is how labor trafficking has risen amidst the financial crisis in SL. Methodology: In this study, Delphi indicators have been utilized to identify the demarcations of labor trafficking. The data was collected from thirty interviews conducted with family members of labor migrants who migrated to GCC in 2022. Results: The results indicate that shortcomings in the governance of labor migration during the financial crisis in SL have led to an increase in labor trafficking. Conclusion: The paper concludes with the discursive, implementation, and efficacy gaps in the governance of labor migration and suggests a right-based framework to guarantee equitable recruitment procedures.

Student Suicide in India: An Analysis of Newspaper Articles(2019-2023).

Student suicide is one significant public health concern across the world, including India. In recent years, the surge in suicide cases has further worried mental health professionals and policymakers. The current study analysed the reported student suicide cases published in four leading Indian newspapers. Based on the analysis of newspaper reports published between 2019 and 2023, the study detected a total of 491 suicidal deaths of students. The result revealed that academic reasons (academic dissatisfaction, academic stress and academic failure), institutional reasons (bullying, caste discrimination, ragging, harassment and toxic institutional culture), mental health issues (depression, psychological stress and anxiety), financial crisis and online gaming are the most commonly reported reasons behind student suicides. The majority of suicide victims were within the age range of 16-21 years. The highest number of suicide cases are reported from Kota, a city often referred to as the coaching capital of India. The study highlights considering changes in the academic curriculum to make academic programs less stressful for students. More importantly, policies should ensure that the academic campuses are free from harassment, bullying or similar aggressive experiences. Furthermore, emphasising students' mental health should be the education system's biggest priority.

Pension funds in Colombia and implications: A bibliometric analysis from Scopus

This study delves into the dynamic landscape of pension funds in Colombia, examining both its current research status and practical implications. Understanding the state of pension systems is crucial for individuals' financial security and a country's overall economic stability, especially given factors such as an aging population and evolving socio-economic dynamics. By comprehensively analyzing scholarly publications on Colombian pension funds using the Scopus database, this research sheds light on key trends and contributors shaping policy formulation and financial planning. The analysis covers a period from 1987 to 2023, identifying 71 relevant articles through keyword searches and filters. Various metrics, including publication trends, citations, international collaboration, and authorship dynamics, were quantitatively assessed. The results reveal an annual growth rate of 5.37%, with research articles comprising 81.69%, review articles 7.04%, and other formats like books, book chapters, and conference papers making up 11.27% of the total documents. Notably, countries such as the UK, the USA, Spain, and Colombia emerge as key contributors to the literature. Among authors, Mesa-Lago, L., stands out as a significant figure, with one of the earliest publications on the topic. The findings underscore the growing importance of pension funds in Colombia, particularly in the context of fund performance research amid financial crises. The prevalence of international collaboration suggests a global interest in understanding and contributing to the development of Colombian pension systems. Furthermore, the study identifies research gaps, particularly in areas concerning the socio-economic impact of pension policies, providing a roadmap for future investigations. Policymakers, financial practitioners, and researchers can leverage these insights to inform strategic decision-making and address critical challenges in optimizing pension fund management in Colombia.

Possible Contours of Developing International Trade in the Perimeter of Global Value Chains under the Conditions of New Reality

The transition from hyperglobalization to slowgbalization that began after the 2008 global financial crisis has increased skepticism about the future of globalization and motivation to adjust the architecture of international trade. The subsequent series of global shocks – the aggravation of the US-Chinese trade relations, the COVID-19 pandemic, the events in Ukraine in 2022-2023 – aggravated the situation, exacerbating the problem of stopping the negative consequences of the disruption of supply chains of goods and services. The purpose of the article is to clarify the contours of restructuring and outlooks for the development of cross-border trade in the context of new reality: the imposition of global shocks, increasing geopolitical uncertainty and increasing fragmentation of the world economy. The object of the study is the international trade in the perimeter of global value chains (GVCs), whose share in world trade increased from 34.93% in 1995 to 45.24% in 2007 and, after falling to 43.49% in 2020, quickly recovered and increased to 49.38% in 2022. The analysis of quantitative and structural shifts in GVC-trade was based on the methodology of structuring exports in the categories of value added by A. Borin and M. Mancini. The prospects for GVC-trade were assessed using the methods of identifying the “risk iness” of goods in the export-import turnover of S. Majune and V. Stolzenburg, the frequency of cross-border bilateral interactions of S. Liang, the agglomeration to global trade of K. Baris. The characteristics of the four main options for strengthening the resistance of GVCs in modern conditions are given – reshoring, diversification, regionalization and replication. The working hypothesis has been confirmed: all 4 considered trajectories are not mutually exclusive and none of them presupposes complete autarky of the country. The main conclusion is made, according to which the negative events in the global economy of the last decade reconfigured trade flows, accelerated the processes of regionalization of the global economy, but did not become a trigger for deglobalization.

Management Mechanisms of Rehabilitation Hospitals in Bulgaria. Short Communication

In a market economy and financial crisis, the head of any medical institution has to make adequate decisions regarding the cost-effective functioning of the hospital. Along with reducing costs, the main task is to maintain a high level of medical care. In this paper, the economic efficiency of medical activities in three specialized hospitals for rehabilitation (previously called sanatoriums) in the cities of Hisar, Varna and Bankia in Bulgaria was studied. The competitiveness of the presented rehabilitation institutions lies in their ability to design, produce and offer rehabilitation services that are more attractive to patients in terms of price and quality characteristics and more fully meet their needs compared to the rehabilitation services of competitors. Based on the analysis, it was found that in rehabilitation hospitals, through long-term obligations, the purchase of short-term assets necessary for the implementation of activities is financed, and operating income is invested in long-term assets. This fact determines the increase in liabilities to the company by further minimizing free cash flows, which involve financing current activities, but are invested in non-current assets. At the same time, rehabilitation hospitals — budgetary organizations strictly comply with capital expenditures, which must be specified in the appropriate paragraph, with an approved budget according to the appropriate indicator, which proves strict compliance with budgetary discipline and control over the flow of funds.