Fertility Rates Research Articles

Protective Effects of Betaine on Boar Sperm Quality during Liquid Storage and Transport.

Boar semen is commonly used in artificial insemination (AI) for pig breeding, but its quality can be negatively affected by liquid preservation and transportation, leading to reduced fertility rates. Vibration and temperature fluctuations are critical factors that significantly impact semen quality during storage and transportation, influencing the success rate of AI procedures. Betaine, a naturally occurring compound known for its role in maintaining male fertility, demonstrates potential for improving the preservation and transportation of liquid-preserved boar sperm. The present study demonstrated that betaine supplementation in the semen extenders at 0.5 mg/mL had a significant protective effect on boar sperm motility during storage at 17 °C for 3 to 5 days. During road transportation, 2.5 mg/mL betaine showed significant protective effects on boar sperm progressive motility, while 0.4 mg/mL betaine notably improved boar sperm mitochondrial activity and antioxidant capacity, and reduced lipid peroxidation damage. Simulation models also demonstrated that betaine supplementation increased the proportion of sperm displaying progressive motility and possessing intact acrosomes, regardless of the storage temperature (17 °C or 25 °C), and effectively mitigated the damage caused by vibration at a speed of 200 r/min. Overall, supplementing liquid-preserved boar semen extenders with betaine shows promise in mitigating damage to sperm quality during storage and transportation.

Analyzing the Fertility Rate Trends in Kuwait with GIS Between 2014 and 2024

A highly evident trend globally has emerged since the middle of last century, namely the decline in fertility rates. Whilst the underlying reasons are complicated and multifaceted, it is sufficient to say that there is no easy solution or permanent reversal plan that works. This study investigates the fertility rate in the state of Kuwait and uses GIS tools, such as Hotspot analysis to compare fertility rates between 2014 and 2024 along with their spatial distribution. The aim is to evaluate a government attempt to slow down or stop the decline by offering significant financial support to families with children. Furthermore, the method attempts to identify differences in fertility behavior between ethnic groups in Kuwait (Hadar and Badu) by spatially comparing the fertility rates in suburbs dominated by each group. The output results suggest that the government policies have only been partially successful in stopping the fertility rates; the fertility rates decreased, although only slightly, on average between 2014 and 2024. Additionally, it was clear that the Badu group of Kuwaitis, residing in the new peripheral regions, form significantly larger families than Hadar who live close to the older central suburbs. Combined, these findings suggest that further modifications to the policy umbrella for fertility are necessary that should match the motivations and address the concerns of each ethnic group and district in a more tailored way, rather than simply offering a lump sum to every family.

Are population policies in Arab countries largely ineffective? Past and present perspectives

AbstractThis essay explores two types of population policies common in Arab countries: pro‐natalist policies, aimed at encouraging higher birth rates, and anti‐natalist policies, aimed at reducing birth rates. Determining their practical impact is often challenging due to the lack of control or comparison groups. However, historical policy patterns in two groups of Arab countries over the past six decades offer a unique opportunity for comparison. Between the 1970s and 1990s these two groups implemented opposing programs (pro‐ vs. anti‐natalist), followed by predominantly anti‐natalist policies in both groups. By comparing fertility rates between these groups and discussing various factors influencing fertility changes, this study suggests that the influence of population policies in Arab countries may have been smaller than anticipated, to the point that it is questionable whether they have been worthwhile.

Marriage entry, divorce and reconciliation: The unintended consequence of the home purchase restriction policy in China

This study investigates the unintended socioeconomic consequences of housing market regulations, focusing on the home purchase restriction (HPR) policy implemented in cities across China. While the primary aim of the HPR policy is to curb property prices by limiting the number of properties a household can purchase, its broader impact on family formation, particularly marriage and divorce patterns, remains underexplored. Applying Becker’s economic theory of marriage, which views marital decisions as rational choices influenced by socioeconomic factors, this study examines how the HPR policy affects family formation and dissolution across different city tiers and age groups in China. Our analysis reveals several key findings. First, the HPR policy effectively contributed to a decrease in house prices, aligning with its primary objective. However, it also led to delayed marriages among younger age groups, especially in first-tier cities, where housing affordability is a significant concern. Second, the policy inadvertently encouraged strategic divorces, allowing couples to circumvent purchase restrictions and acquire additional properties. This loophole undermines the policy’s effectiveness in reducing housing demand and stabilizing prices. These results highlight the complex interplay between housing market regulations and family demographics, emphasizing the need for policymakers to consider the broader societal impacts of non-family-oriented policies. As China, like many other societies, faces challenges related to the second demographic transition—such as declining marriage and fertility rates—the findings of this study serve as a cautionary tale. Housing policies, while effective in addressing market concerns, can have significant and sometimes counterproductive effects on family stability and formation, potentially exacerbating the demographic trends a society aims to mitigate.

Multistate model for correlates of parity progression among women living with HIV in Ibadan, Nigeria.

Globally, childbearing is a major concern for women living with HIV (WLWH). This study examined parity progression and its predictors among WLWH in Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria. We analysed dataset from a cross-sectional study on childbearing progression among 933 respondents aged 18-49 years receiving care at the HIV Program, University College Hospital, Ibadan. Multistate model was employed for analysis. The adjusted total fertility rate was 3.54. More than 70% were likely to progress from first-to-second birth (HR = 1.77; CI: 1.40, 2.23)but none of the covariates analysed were associated with progression. WLWH were less likely of progression from second-to-third birth (HR = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.13, 0.16). Having 1-2 children at HIV diagnosis (HR = 0.59; CI: 0.48, 0.71), being widowed (HR = 1.36; CI: 1.04, 1.80), having a partner with secondary education(HR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.49), partner's employment status (HR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.80), , knowledge of partner's HIV status (Negative) (HR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.94) were associated with progression to third birth. The estimated total fertility rate was lower than the national and the Southwest estimates. Different factors were associated with birth progression from one parity to another.

Fertility, economic development, and remittances in post-communist times

ABSTRACT This study investigates fertility responses to remittances across developed and developing countries in post-communist times. We first collected fertility, remittances, and income statistics over the 1995–2020 period and created a new vulnerability index that identifies less economically developed states with high fertility rates and dependent on remittances. We then examined the global fertility effects of remittances between 1995 and 2015 via Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, and Instrumental Variable estimation methods. The baseline regression results suggest that the relationship between remittances and fertility rates of remittances-receiving countries is generally inverse. We also found that the fertility-reducing power of remittances is heterogeneous worldwide. To illustrate the findings, we constructed two heat maps for 196 countries. The first one depicts the distribution of the vulnerability index, and the second one is dedicated to variations in the fertility effects of remittances across countries based on the vulnerability index.

Will a government subsidy increase couples' further fertility intentions? A real-world study from a large-scale online survey in Eastern China.

How many couples with at least one child under 3 years would like to have another one or more child(ren) in Eastern China and will an in-cash subsidy be conducive to couple's fertility intentions? In sum, only 15.1% of respondents had further fertility intentions (FFI) before learning about the subsidy, and the planned in-cash subsidy policy increased respondents' overall FFI by 8.5%. Fertility has been declining globally and has reached a new low in China. The reasons why the Chinese three-child policy was under-realized, and how couples will react to a planned monthly ¥1000 (€141.2) subsidy policy, are not fully understood. During January and February 2022, a cross-sectional online survey aiming to understand families' expenses of raising a child under 3 years old, and couples' FFI, was conducted. During the survey period, 272510 respondents scanned the QR code. This study reports the findings pertaining to questions on respondents' sociodemographic characteristics, household factors, FFI, and changes in intention from negative to positive after learning about the planned in-cash subsidy. After exclusion, 144893 eligible responses were included. Respondents' FFI, the effect of a planned ¥1000/month*36 months' in-cash subsidy (€5083.2 in total) on people with a negative FFI before the subsidy, and potential reasons for persistent negative FFI after learning about the subsidy were collected through an anonymous online survey. Stepwise binary logistic regression models were used to select associated factors. The potential fertility rate change and government costs were estimated. A stratified analysis by current child number and sensitivity analysis were also conducted. In sum, 15.7% (22804/144893) of respondents were male, 15.1% of respondents reported a positive FFI, and 10.0% (12288/123051) without an FFI at first changed their intention after learning about the planned in-cash subsidy policy. For those who still said 'no FFI', 46.5%, 20.6%, and 14.7% chose pressure on housing status, expenses on children's education, and lack of time or energy for caring for another child as their first reasons. FFI was strongest in participants receiving the most financial support from their parents, i.e. grandparents (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.63-1.84 for the >¥100000/year group), and weakest in those already having two children (OR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.22-0.24). For those with no FFI before learning about the subsidy policy, respondents with the highest house loan/rent (>¥120000/year, OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.18-1.36) were more likely to change their FFI from 'No' to 'Yes', and those with the highest household income (>¥300000/year, OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.60-0.71) were least susceptible to the policy. In our study population, about 1843 more births every year and an additional 0.3 children per woman were projected under a conservative estimation. Annual estimated cost at the provincial scale would be ¥817.7 (€115.5) million, about 1.02‰ of the total General Public Budget Revenue in 2022. The findings were generally robust in the stratified analysis and sensitivity analysis. Selection bias and information errors may exist in the online survey responses. The large sample size and detailed further analysis were used to minimize such biases. Fertility intentions in Eastern China are rather low. Policymakers should focus more on financial and childcare burdens for a better realization of the three-child policy, including housing, education and childcare services. An in-cash subsidy, which has never been used in China previously, shows promising potential for increasing FFI. However, the application of such policy should be in line with local conditions for better cost-effectiveness regarding fertility-boosting and fiscal sustainability for the government in the long run. This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China (2019YFC0840702). The authors declare no conflict of interests. N/A.

Development and Validation of an Evaluation Questionnaire for the Healthy Early Life Moments in Singapore (HELMS) Program.

Global fertility rates are declining due to metabolic and mental health challenges in women trying to conceive. The Healthy Early Life Moments in Singapore (HELMS) program aims to address these challenges through mobile health (mHealth)-enabled lifestyle interventions. However, the lack of validated evaluation tools for such programs makes it difficult to assess their feasibility and acceptability. To tackle this, a comprehensive evaluation questionnaire was developed and validated to determine if the HELMS preconception program's implementation outcomes were achieved. The questionnaire development process included a literature review and a two-step validation process: content validation by five content experts and face validation by 20 HELMS participants. Content validation was assessed using the scale content validity index (S-CVI) based on relevance, clarity, simplicity, and ambiguity. Face validation with participants evaluated these criteria and the ease of completing the questionnaire. Internal consistency was assessed using Cronbach's alpha among 49 participants. The questionnaire achieved good S-CVI values for relevance (0.93), clarity (0.91), simplicity (0.94), and ambiguity (0.71). After expert feedback, the revised version scored highly among HELMS participants for relevance (100%), clarity (95%), simplicity (95%), and non-ambiguity (90%). A Cronbach's alpha of 0.93 indicated good internal consistency. The HELMS evaluation questionnaire shows promise for evaluating similar mHealth-based lifestyle intervention programs globally.

Mortality risk predicts global, local, and individual patterns of human reproduction

BackgroundHuman reproductive dynamics in the post-industrial world are typically explained by economic, technological, and social factors including the prevalence of contraception and increasing numbers of women in higher education and the workforce. These factors have been targeted by multiple world governments as part of family policies, yet those policies have had limited success. The current work adopts a life history perspective from evolutionary biology: like most species, human populations may respond to safer environments marked by lower morbidity and mortality by slowing their reproduction and reducing their number of offspring. We test this association on three levels of analysis using global, local, and individual data from publicly available databases.ResultsData from over 200 world nations, 3,000 U.S. counties and 2,800 individuals confirm an association between human reproductive outcomes and local mortality risk. Lower local mortality risk predicts “slower” reproduction in humans (lower adolescent fertility, lower total fertility rates, later age of childbearing) on all levels of analyses, even while controlling for socioeconomic variables (female employment, education, contraception).ConclusionsThe association between extrinsic mortality risk and reproductive outcomes, suggested by life history theory and previously supported by both animal and human data, is now supported by novel evidence in humans. Social and health policies governing human reproduction, whether they seek to boost or constrain fertility, may benefit from incorporating a focus on mortality risk.

Birth rate decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes and economic uncertainty

Abstract STUDY QUESTION What are the factors influencing the decline in the birth rates observed in higher-income countries in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic? SUMMARY ANSWER Our results suggest that economic uncertainty, non-pharmaceutical policy interventions, and the first wave of the population-wide vaccination campaign were associated with the decline in birth rates during 2022. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY During the COVID-19 pandemic, birth rates in most higher-income countries first briefly declined and then shortly recovered, showing no common trends afterwards until early 2022, when they unexpectedly dropped. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This study uses population-wide data on monthly total fertility rates adjusted for seasonality and calendar effects provided in the Human Fertility Database (HFD). Births taking place between November 2020 and October 2022 correspond to conceptions occurring between February 2020 and January 2022, ie, after the onset of the pandemic but prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The data cover 26 countries, including 21 countries in Europe, the United States, Canada, Israel, Japan and the Republic of Korea. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS First, we provided a descriptive analysis of the monthly changes in the total fertility rate (TFR). Second, we employed linear fixed effects regression models to estimate the association of explanatory factors with the observed seasonally adjusted total fertility rates. Our analysis considered three broader sets of explanatory factors: economic uncertainty, policy interventions restricting mobility and social activities outside the home, and the progression of vaccination programmes. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE We found that birth trends during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with economic uncertainty, as measured by increased inflation (p < 0.001), whereas unemployment did not show any link to births during the pandemic (p = 0.677). The stringency of pandemic policy interventions was linked to a postponement of births, but only in countries with lower institutional trust and only in the early phase of the pandemic (p = 0.003). In countries with higher trust, stricter containment measures were positively associated with birth rates, both for conceptions in the first year of the pandemic (p = 0.019) and, albeit only weakly significant, for conceptions later in the pandemic (p = 0.057). Furthermore, we found a negative association between the share of the population having received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccination and total fertility rates (p < 0.001), whereas the share of the population having completed the primary vaccination course (usually consisting of two doses) was linked to a recovery of birth rates (p < 0.001). LARGE SCALE DATA N/A LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Our research is restricted to higher-income countries with relatively strong social support policies provided by the government as well as wide access to modern contraception. Our data did not allow analyses of birth trends by key characteristics, such as age, birth order and social status. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This is the first multi-country study of the drivers of birth trends in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the past, periods following epidemics and health crises were typically associated with a recovery in births. In contrast, our results show that the gradual phasing out of pandemic containment measures, allowing increased mobility and a return to more normal work and social life, contributed to declining birth rates in some countries. In addition, our analysis indicates that some women avoided pregnancy until completion of the primary vaccination protocol. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study did not use any external funding. The authors acknowledge funding from their home institution, the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, and from the Open-Access Fund of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. For the purpose of open access, the authors have applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript versions arising from this submission. All authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Analysis of Population Change of the 0-14 Year Age Group in Türkiye (2000-2022)

Age groups with wide and narrow ranges provide the opportunity to make detailed evaluations for planning studies in demographic analyses. Particularly, population pyramids are prepared using age group data by sex. In the bottom three rows of the pyramids, 0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 age group data can be used to evaluate population growth and fertility rates. In addition, age groups provide an indication of the amount of dependent and active population in a society, thus facilitating future population forecasts. Broad age ranges categorize the 0-14 age group as the young dependant population, the 15-64 age group as the active population, and the 65+ age group as the elderly dependent population. The proportional change of these age groups in certain date intervals and the reasons for which age groups are in an upward or downward trend also give an idea about the general welfare levels of countries. The current population's demographic trends guide the planning of employment, education, health, and many other socio-economic investments. Population policies are based on the proportional distribution of age groups and population projections. In this study, the change in the population of the 0-14 age group in Türkiye has been analyzed according to the Classification of Territorial Units for Statistics Level-1 (İBBS Düzey-1) since 2000. The population amount, population density, age, and gender structure of this age group are emphasized. In the research, State Institute of Statistics (DIE) 2000 General Population Census and TURKSTAT (TÜİK) Regional statistics data for 2022 were utilized. In 2000, since the Classification of Territorial Units for Statistics had not yet been established, province-based data from 2000 were evaluated and new data were created at the “İBBS Düzey-1” (CUTS Level-1) scale in order to ensure integrity in tables and graphs.

Uncertainty and Fertility in Ukraine on the Eve of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion: The Impact of Armed Conflict and Economic Crisis

While uncertainty has been a key explanation for very low fertility throughout Europe, few studies have analysed how macro-level uncertainty trickles down to shape how people think about having children. Most research focuses on economic uncertainty, not political or social uncertainty. We address these gaps with qualitative data from Ukraine, which has experienced extreme political uncertainty and, for the past decade, armed conflict. Ukraine also had exceptionally low fertility, with an estimated total fertility rate of 1.17 in 2021. In July 2021, we conducted 16 online focus groups on topics related to childbearing with informants living in urban and rural areas in Eastern Ukraine, including areas of Donetsk province that were outside Ukrainian government control. Half the groups consisted of persons displaced by the 2014 Donbas war. The discussions revealed distinct patterns whereby experiences of displacement, the simmering armed conflict, and economic problems combined to produce and intensify uncertainties that discouraged couples from having more than one child. Some blamed the government or delved into conspiracy theories. Armed conflict generates its own forms of uncertainty that interact with persistent economic challenges, dampening fertility.

Temperature and fertility: Evidence from Spain

In this paper, we combine administrative data for Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data, to identify the effect of daily mean temperature on fertility. We demonstrate for Spain that hot days (≥25°C) decrease the total fertility rate nine months after exposure. Moreover, we do not observe any substantial heterogeneities in the effect of heat by mother’s age, mother’s educational attainment, sex of the newborn, climatic area, or air conditioning penetration. Our results suggest that climate change may be altering the seasonal distribution of births and affect fertility rates in a context with low fertility and rapid population ageing.

The impact of household size on measles transmission: A long-term perspective

Households play an important role in the transmission of infectious diseases due to the close contact therein. Previous modeling studies on disease transmission with household-level mixing have explored the relationship between household size distribution and epidemic characteristics such as final epidemic sizes and the basic reproduction number but have not considered the epidemic impact of declining household sizes caused by demographic shifts. Here, we use a disease transmission model that incorporates demographic changes in household sizes to study the long-term transmission dynamics of measles in communities with varying household size distributions. We explore the impact of incorporating both household- and age-structured mixing on the dynamic properties of the transmission model and compare these dynamics across different household size distributions. Our analysis, based on the household- and age-structured model, shows that communities with larger household sizes require higher vaccination thresholds and bear a greater burden of infections. However, simulations show the apparent impact of changing household sizes is the combined result of changing birth rates and household mixing, and that changing birth rates likely play a larger role than changes in household mixing in shaping measles transmission dynamics (n.b, life-long immunity makes replenishment of population susceptibility from births a crucial transmission driver for measles). In addition, simulations of endemic transmission of measles within a hypothetical population formulated using aggregated world demographic data suggest the decline in household size (driven by changing fertility rates of the population), in addition to increasing vaccination coverage, could have had a significant impact on the incidence of measles over time.

Prediction of childbearing tendency in women on the verge of marriage using machine learning techniques

The declining fertility rate and increasing marriage age among girls pose challenges for policymakers, leading to issues such as population decline, higher social and economic costs, and reduced labor productivity. Using machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the desire to have children can offer a promising solution to address these challenges. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the childbearing tendency in women on the verge of marriage using ML techniques. Data from 252 participants (203 expressing a "desire to have children" and 49 indicating "reluctance to have children") in Abadan, and Khorramshahr cities (Khuzestan Province, Iran) was analyzed. Seven ML algorithms, including multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), J48 decision tree, Naive Bayes (NB), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN), were employed. The performance of these algorithms was assessed using metrics derived from the confusion matrix. The RF algorithm showed superior performance, with the highest sensitivity (99.5%), specificity (95.6%), and receiver operating characteristic curve (90.1%) values. Meanwhile, MLP emerged as the top-performing algorithm, showcasing the best overall performance in accuracy (77.75%) and precision (81.8%) compared to other algorithms. Factors such as age of marriage, place of residence, and strength of the family center with the birth of a child were the most effective predictors of a woman's desire to have children. Conversely, the number of daughters, the wife's ethnicity, and the spouse's ownership of assets such as cars and houses were among the least important factors in predicting this desire. ML algorithms exhibit excellent predictive capabilities for childbearing tendencies in women on the verge of marriage, highlighting their remarkable effectiveness. This capacity to offer accurate prognoses holds significant promise for advancing research in this field.

Identify Affecting Factors on Total Fertility Rate: A Systematic Review

Background: The total fertility rate (TFR) is a key indicator of population dynamics and health. It shows the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime, based on the current fertility rates for different age groups. Various factors affect the TFR, such as social, economic, political, technological, environmental, and health factors. By analyzing these factors and how they influence the TFR, policymakers and planners can design and implement interventions to achieve optimal population and health outcomes. Methods: We searched PubMed, Scopus, ISI Web of Science, and ProQuest databases, as well as the Google Scholar search engine systematically. We searched for studies from 13 December 2021 - 20 May 2022, without time limits. We included studies that described at least one driver of TFR. We applied the STEEPH framework (social, technology, environmental, economic, political, and health) method to analyze the qualitative data. Results: We included 64 studies from 26 countries. We identified 410 drivers of TFR, and classified 181 drivers into six main categories: Social, technological, environmental, economic, political, and health. The main factors that lower the fertility rate are education, aging, poverty, postponing marriage (social), exposure of women to mass media (technology), type of residence and living in urban areas, road accidents (environmental), income and economic situation (recession and inflation), unemployment, debt, women’s employment (economic), government policies (political), use of anti-fertility drugs (health). The main drivers that raise the fertility rate are having first child girls, women’s proximity to their workplace (social), use of assisted reproductive technology (technology), living in rural areas and natural and unnatural disasters (environmental), improvement in men’s labor market conditions, employment opportunities (economic), increased parental leave (political), high infant mortality (health). Conclusions: We identified a comprehensive list of effective drivers that have increased or decreased TFR in different parts of the world. It is necessary to review these drivers considering the specific conditions and social, cultural, economic, and political coordinates of each country. This review should inform policymakers' actions in this area.

Impact of different mating ratios of broiler breeder on reproductive performance during post moult phase.

Studies comparing mating ratio after forced molting are important for improving the efficiency of broiler breeder flocks. This study examined the effect of mating ratios on Egg production, chick weight, fertility, hatchability and embryonic mortality rate in Arbor Acres Plus broiler breeders post-moult phase. A total of 195 birds (62 weeks old), consisting of 15 cocks and 180 hens were randomly allocated with uniform body weight in a Completely Randomized Design into three groups based on the mating ratio (cock to hen). The groups included ratios of 1:10, 1:12, and 1:14, with each group replicated 5 times. Eggs were collected twice a day, and stored for 7 days at room temperature before placing them in the incubator. Results showed that mating ratios 1:10 and 1:12 had a positive effect on fertility rate and total hatchability compared to the 1:14 ratio. However, mating ratios did not affect laying rate, egg weight, egg mass, chick weight, hatchability of fertile eggs, and embryonic mortality rate. In conclusion, to reduce the cost of raising and caring cocks, a mating ratio of one cock to every twelve hens can be used for broiler breeders after forced molting to obtain the best fertility and hatching results.

Analyzing Number of Children Ever Born in Bangladesh Using Generalized Poisson Regression Model

One major indicator to detect any country’s future population size is the total fertility rate (TFR). Based on the total number of children ever born, an underdispersed count data, this paper aims to investigate the fertility behavior of mothers in Bangladesh who have given birth to one or more children. For analyzing count dataset, the Poisson regression model (PRM) is commonly used, which assumes that the response variable’s mean is equal to its variance. Since the generalized Poisson regression model (GPRM) is suitable for the analysis of both overdispersed and underdispersed count data, this model is applied to deal with the underlying count dataset in this study. The results obtained in this paper have revealed some variables that impose significant impact on the current fertility differential of mothers giving birth to children. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 72(2): 01-06, 2024 (July)

From data to decisions: Exploring family planning services utilization in Karnataka and India through the prism of NFHS-4 and NFHS-5.

Family planning (FP) services are pivotal in assessing a country's healthcare efficacy. Despite India's strides in FP promotion, disparities persist in its utilization rates. This study analyzes Karnataka's FP trends by using National Family Health Survey (NFHS) rounds 4 and 5, comparing its indicators with national averages. A retrospective record review-based descriptive study design was employed. Data from NFHS-4 (2015-16) and NFHS-5 (2019-21) were analyzed using MS Excel 365. Key variables included age at marriage, total fertility rate (TFR), and various contraceptive methods. Karnataka exhibited a stable rate of early marriages for women and a decline among men aged 25-29 years. TFR in Karnataka slightly decreased, with increased contraceptive usage and significant growth in modern contraceptive methods. However, male sterilization rates remained low. There was an improvement in health workers' engagement with female non-users and in providing information on contraceptive side effects. While Karnataka has progressed in FP, challenges such as early marriages persist. Enhancing integration, leveraging technology, and empowering women are essential for comprehensive FP services in India.

A Quantitative Theory of the New Life Cycle of Women's Employment

“A new life cycle of women's labor force participation has emerged” (Goldin and Mitchell, 2017). Compared to previous cohorts, the employment profile of American college-educated married women born after the mid-1950s is flatter and higher with no hump but with a dip in the middle between ages 30-39. At the same time, these younger cohorts have delayed births, but their completed fertility rate has increased. I develop a quantitative theory to explain the changes in college-educated women's employment and fertility decisions across cohorts. First, I provide reduced-form evidence of a positive correlation between fertility and employment decisions. Second, I build a life-cycle model of labor supply and fertility decisions. My estimates indicate that the marginal returns to experience of college-educated married women increased by 33 percent. Although on-the-job accumulation of experience plays a crucial role in generating employment shifts and birth delays, the model does not generate an increase in the total fertility rate in the absence of infertility treatments. Thus, to understand why college-educated married women's life-cycle employment profiles and fertility decisions are changing, both factors must be considered.