Federal Election Research Articles

Power struggles in the German Christian Democrats. The dynamics of three consecutive leadership contests

In 2021, the German Christian Democrats held three leadership contests. First, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) had to find a new party leader. While the members tended toward the more conservative candidate, Friedrich Merz, the party elite increasingly spoke out in favor of the more moderate Armin Laschet, who prevailed at a digital party conference. Just a few months later, he was challenged by his counterpart in the CDU's Bavarian sister party (CSU), Markus Söder, over who would be the joint chancellor candidate in the upcoming federal election. Söder was clearly favored by voters as well as the party on the ground, but Laschet found powerful and decisive support in the CDU's party elite. Yet the Christian Democrats surprisingly lost the federal election, mainly because of the unpopularity of its frontrunner. After Laschet announced his retirement, the party prepared the third leadership contest. This time, the party headquarter declared a membership ballot as the mode of decision-making, in which Merz triumphed. As this study clearly points out, each of the three selection modes developed its own dynamic in the matter of influencing factors, qualitatively as well as quantitatively. Process-tracing shows that the various selection processes are interrelated in terms of their dynamics and decision modes.

When the East Goes to the Poll: Explaining the Regional Differences in AfD-Voting in the 2021 Federal Election

In the 2021 German federal election, the share of East Germans who voted for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a radical right-wing party, was more than twice as high as the share of AfD voters in West Germany. While most scholars focus on the general determinants of AfD-voting, this paper sheds light on specific variables that could explain these east-west differences. To achieve this, I develop a two-sided argument which considers both the distribution of common AfD-voting determinants and the socialization experiences of East Germans. Multivariate regression with the 2021 GLES data reveals a remaining East bonus in AfD-voting, indicating that the distribution of voting determinants alone cannot explain the regional differences in AfD vote share. Nevertheless, this paper presents a novel structured approach to the issue.

Do electoral candidates reflect or select campaign issues? The influence of electoral manifestos on online communication

This article investigates the influence of electoral manifestos on the online communication of electoral candidates. Our study addresses electoral candidates’ conflict between party discipline and individual issue prioritisation. Building on the salience framework, we examine the thematic congruence between manifestos and online communication. Moreover, we test which issues are emphasised during the 2017 German federal election campaign. To this end, we created an original topic dictionary based on party manifestos. Applying the dictionary, we classify 143,969 tweets by 797 candidates. Our analyses demonstrate that manifestos shape the online communication of electoral candidates substantially. The findings show that electoral candidates of left–wing parties focus on core issues over time. Our results not only highlight the authority of party leadership, but also suggest that politicians do not tap the whole potential of online communication.

Beyond Linguistic Peripheral Elites: The Provincial Imbalance of Cabinet Ministers in Belgium

AbstractDespite the creation of regions and communities in the second half of the 20th century for resolving ethnic tensions between the French- and Flemish-speaking communities, provinces are still relevant to understand contemporary Belgian politics. Observing provincial political dynamics is essential to understand multi-level political elite dynamics and territorial cleavages in contemporary Belgium. For instance, political parties are internally structured in provincial federations, and federal elections rely on provincial electoral districts. Combined with constitutional factors such as language and region, this article investigates the provincial origins of ministerial elites in all Belgian federal cabinets between 1980 and 2020. It observes that provinces are far from being perfectly present in a balanced manner in the federal government: some provinces are overrepresented while others – in particular large provinces – are underrepresented. This provincial imbalance is stable over time and independent on the types of cabinet but can be explained by party strategies and vote-seeking considerations.

Mainstreaming of Social Protection Agenda in the Political Parties' Election Manifesto in Nepal

Social protection is indispensable for poverty reduction, a dignified life, and a secure future. According to the concept of a socialist public welfare state, it is the responsibility of the state to provide social security to facilitate the lives of weak, disadvantaged, and vulnerable communities and to ensure quality, safe, and protected lives of all citizens. Thus, social protection agenda are intrinsically political in nature. This paper is based on review of manifestos of various political parties in Nepal for the local, provincial, and federal elections. It was noted that the provisions for education, health, infrastructural development, social protection allowances, shelter, rest homes, care centers, and drinking water among other topics, have been covered in the manifestos of the major political parties. However, the social protection provisions are vague and do not exclusively cover the most vulnerable populations, including children, youths, sexual and gender minority children, and people with disabilities. It further proves that social protection allowances and schemes proposed by political parties are heavily skewed toward elderly citizens. The political parties need to be more capacitated, sensitive, committed, and aware of the multiple dimensions of social protection to ensure complete political ownership of the agenda.

Healthcare lobbying and campaign finance activities of vision-related professional societies, 2015 to 2022

Purpose To compare the lobbying expenditures and political action committee (PAC) campaign finance activities of the American Academy of Ophthalmology (AAO), American Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery (ASCRS), and American Optometric Association (AOA) from 2015 to 2022. Methods Financial data were collected from the Federal Election Commission and OpenSecrets database. Analysis was performed to characterize and compare financial activity among the organizations. P < 0.05 was considered significant and all analyses were two-sided. Results From 2015 to 2022, the AAO, ASCRS, and AOA spent $6,745,000, $5,354,406, and $13,335,000 on lobbying, respectively. The AOA’s annual lobbying expenditure (median, $1,725,000) was significantly greater than AAO’s ($842,500, P = 0.03) and ASCRS’s ($694,289, P < 0.001). In PAC donations, OPHTHPAC, affiliated with AAO, received $3,221,737 from 2079 donors (median, $900); eyePAC, affiliated with ASCRS, received $506,255 from 349 donors ($500); and AOA-PAC received $6,642,588 from 3641 donors ($825). Compared to eyePAC, median donations to OPHTHPAC (P = 0.01) and AOA-PAC (P = 0.04) were significantly higher. In campaign spending, OPHTHPAC contributed $2,728,500 to 326 campaigns (median, $5000), eyePAC contributed $293,500 to 58 campaigns ($3000), and AOA-PAC contributed $5,128,673 to 617 campaigns ($5500). eyePAC’s median campaign contribution was significantly lower than the AOA’s (P < 0.001) and AAO’s (P = 0.007). Every PAC directed most of its contributions toward Republican campaigns; eyePAC donated the highest proportion (64.9%). Conclusions AOA was more assertive in shaping policy by increasing lobbying expenditures, fundraising, and donating to a greater number of election campaigns.

Left Behind Together and Voting for Populism: Regional Out-Migration, Civic Engagement and the Electoral Success of Populist Radical Right Parties

According to the academic debate, the populist radical right is particularly successful in regions that have been left behind economically or culturally. Although civic engagement in networks of civil society, a specific form of social capital, seems important, its influence remains ambiguous. In contrast, regional out-migration as a social dimension of being left behind receives limited attention despite the relevance of internal migration to political geography. This study investigates two theoretically possible models to clarify the relationships between regional out-migration, civic engagement, and their impacts on voting for the populist radical right. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and official regional statistics, logistic multilevel analyses are conducted for Germany and the election of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) in the 2017 federal election. The key finding of the cross-sectional analysis is that regional out-migration is a condition that moderates the relationship between civic participation and the election of the AfD. In general, civically involved individuals support established democratic parties, but in regions with high out-migration, they tend to vote for the populist radical right. However, there is no empirical evidence that regional out-migration contributes to the election of the AfD by reducing civic engagement and being mediated by it.

Canada: Political Developments and Data in 2022

AbstractThere was no federal election in Canada in 2022, but the official opposition Conservatives ousted their leader and elected a new one. Additionally, the Liberals and New Democrats signed a Supply and Confidence Agreement that would protect the minority Liberal government from parliamentary defeat until 2025. Despite these significant developments, the major event was a convoy that descended on Ottawa to protest policies related to the COVID‐19 pandemic and was only removed after substantial police action and the declaration of the Emergencies Act.

Is Quebec independence still key in making sense of Canadian elections? A longitudinal analysis (2000–2021)

ABSTRACT The issue of Quebec independence was, until recently, considered the most important factor motivating Quebeckers’ vote choice in federal elections. However, the conventional wisdom has shifted and now holds, especially since 2011, that the explanatory power of the issue of Quebec secession would have decreased over time and would no longer be deemed as one of the few decisive determinants of citizens’ vote choice calculus. We provide the first longitudinal analysis of the impact of Quebec independence in federal elections using the Canadian Election Study from 2000 to 2021. Our findings show that, as expected, attitudes toward Quebec secession in explaining citizens’ vote choice were more important at the beginning of the twenty-first century, although only when comparing the discrepancy between the 2000 and 2004 elections. Between 2006 and 2021, the importance of Quebec independence has remained stable and key in explaining electoral outcomes.

Persistent Sacrifice: The 'Sacrificial Lamb' Effect, Women Candidates, and Underrepresentation in the 44th Parliament

In August of 2021, Canadian Parliament was dissolved and the 44th federal election was called. Its result was a Parliament that was only marginally more representative of female and gender-diverse candidates than the last. This is in part due to the ‘sacrificial lamb’ effect identified by Melanee Thomas and Marc-Andre Bodet, which highlights the persistence of parties in running women and gender-diverse candidates in unwinnable or ‘swing’ ridings – such that they become ‘sacrifices’ and are destined for failure. Previous research has confirmed the presence of the ‘sacrificial lamb’ effect across several elections. I examine specific incidents of gender-diverse candidates being run in the ‘stronghold’ riding of another party, as well as the slates of candidates in several ‘swing’ and ‘stronghold’ ridings across the country. Further, I consider the likely implications of the ‘sacrificial lamb’ effect and the general underrepresentation of female candidates in the 44th Parliament, as well as the extent to which the ‘sacrificial lamb’ effect may have compromised the freeness and fairness of the 2021 campaign. I conclude that the ‘sacrificial lamb’ effect continued in full force throughout the 2021 campaign, which is likely to have a detrimental impact on the representation of women’s interests, specifically as they pertain to the pressing women’s issues of today.

Election predictions in the news: how users perceive and respond to visual election forecasts

ABSTRACT Political journalism often tries to predict the future, especially the outcomes of elections. This has historically been accomplished through written articles or opinion pieces. A more recent development involves the publication of data-driven predictions in online news media. These news items not only contain an estimate for the election results but also often try to visualize potential uncertainties of the prediction. However, the ways in which users react to these forms of journalism have not yet been studied extensively. In this work, we survey users of a predictive journalism piece on the 2021 German federal elections published by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung to better understand their reactions. While we found an alignment between the designers' intention to show the inherent uncertainty of election predictions with the audience's reception, we encountered mixed results in users' ability to interpret the uncertainty visualizations presented. Most respondents indicated that the predictions did not influence their thinking about the race, and some remained skeptical toward such predictions published by journalists for various reasons. Based on these findings, we suggest the need for rigorous user testing of visualizations for election prediction and increased awareness and future research on ways to increase the transparency of methods and data to develop appropriate trust toward predictive journalism.

An Analysis of Political Contributions by Urologists in the United States: 2003-2022.

We sought to better understand the amounts and distribution of political contributions made by urologists in the United States. The Federal Election Commission was analyzed for political contributions from 2003 to 2022 using the search terms "urology," "urologist," or "urologic surgeon." Contributions were classified by political party (Democratic, Republican, or Independent) and were analyzed for temporal, geographic, and demographic trends. There were a total of 26,441 unique contributions that resulted in $9,943,205 after adjusting for inflation. The total amount of political contributions increased significantly over time, with higher numbers during presidential election years. The Republican party received the highest proportion of donations (69.1%). Importantly, women urologists and urologists working in academic centers were significantly more likely to contribute to Democratic committees (P < .001 for both). Texas had the highest total amount of contributions ($395,152). Overall contributions to urology political action committees have steadily decreased since 2011, while contributions to individual campaigns and nonurology political action committees have increased. Urologists have been increasingly contributing to political campaigns over the past 19 years, with most of their individual and political action committee contributions going to Republican committees and candidates. Future research evaluating how growing political engagement by urologists affects the development of new health care policy will be important as a new generation of urologists begins to enter practice.

Peculiarities of the activities of Russian political parties in the context of the special military operation in 2022

This article analyzes the positioning of political parties in the current political realities. The special military operation in Ukraine is considered as a significant internal political and geopolitical event, which to one degree or another affected almost all socio-political institutions of Russia, including political parties. In this article the parties are classified into new ones, that are those which created after 2015 and participating in federal election campaigns, and those parties that managed to take a firm place in the political system and form fractions in the Parliament. The purpose of this study is to determine whether new political parties in 2022 were able to take advantage of the current period of instability to strengthen their position in the political space and to which extent. Analyzing the legislative, media and public activities of such parties as “United Russia”, the Communist party, the Liberal-Democratic party, “Just Russia – for the Truth”, “New People”, “Green Alternative” and the “Party of Growth” in 2022 it was concluded that among the new political parties only "New People" are relatively active in the framework of the agenda of a special military operation. Other new political parties, except for minor actions, projects and other activities, almost do not use special operations in their activities to promote their party brand and attract new supporters. At the same time, almost all the parties under consideration integrated the agenda of the special military operation into their activities, but this had a very small impact on the electoral sympathies of the population.

What drives the intra-party democracy of the “Alternative for Germany”: Populist ideology, low institutionalisation or lacking party unity?

The organisation of populist radical right parties significantly shapes their long-term electoral success. Within this party family, great organisational variation can be found, with the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) representing a least-likely case: in terms of candidate selection (CS), it ranks much higher on democracy scales than the other Bundestag parties. This paper explores the reasons for this high level of intra-party democracy (IPD) by focusing on three explanatory dimensions: ideology, institutionalisation, and party unity. Methodologically, we apply multivariate analyses of representative quantitative data collected among AfD members at CS prior to the 2017 federal election. The results show that high political dissatisfaction and low levels of institutionalisation are important drivers of inclusive CS procedures. Overall, the article provides a deeper understanding of the underlying attitudes for the AfD’s inclusive IPD, and offers substantial theoretical and empirical implications for future research.

Does Digital Campaigning Make a Difference for Individual Candidates in an Open List Proportional Representation System? The Case of the 2019 Election in Belgium

This article looks at the equalization/normalization problem through the lens of campaign spending and investigates the effect of expenses for digital tools on the electoral result of individual candidates in an open list proportional representation system. A multilevel analysis of the campaign expenses of 1253 serious contenders in the Belgian 2019 concurrent federal, regional, and European elections shows that the investment in both owned Web 1.0 media and paid Web 2.0 media does not have an effect on electoral performance. Investing in traditional tools, by contrast, does have a significant positive effect. While most candidates use digital tools, they invest only a small part of their budget in these, which may explain the absence of a digital expense effect. These findings put the use of digital campaigning in perspective, showing that the effect of paid online tools should not be overestimated, and that the role of traditional campaigning is still dominant.

Datafication Markers: Curation and User Network Effects on Mobilization and Polarization During Elections

Social media platforms are crucial sources of political information during election campaigns, with datafication processes underlying the algorithmic curation of newsfeeds. Recognizing the role of individuals in shaping datafication processes and leveraging the metaphor of news attraction, we study the impact of user curation and networks on mobilization and polarization. In a two-wave online panel survey (&lt;em&gt;n&lt;/em&gt; = 943) conducted during the 2021 German federal elections, we investigate the influence of self-reported user decisions, such as following politicians, curating their newsfeed, and being part of politically interested networks, on changes in five democratic key variables: vote choice certainty, campaign participation, turnout, issue reinforcement, and affective polarization. Our findings indicate a mobilizing rather than polarizing effect of algorithmic election news exposure and highlight the relevance of users’ political networks on algorithmic platforms.

Aggregate economic policy uncertainty and corporate political contribution disclosure

PurposeUnlike other types of corporate disclosure, corporate political disclosure (CPD), which is the disclosure of corporate political contributions and the related governing policies and oversight mechanisms, does not provide completely new information to stakeholders. Some of the information disclosed in CPD is available from other public records (e.g. the Federal Election Committee website or OpenSecrets website). Given this unique feature of CPD, it is interesting to investigate the cost and benefit tradeoff for firms of altering their CPD practice in response to policy and political uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs recently developed indexes of aggregate economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and a novel dataset of CPD transparency to examine the impact of EPU on CPD transparency and how the proprietary cost of corporate political activities moderates this association. The sample consists of S&P 500 companies from the 2012 to 2019 period.FindingsThe authors document that firms mitigate the heightened information asymmetry associated with higher aggregate EPU by increasing CPD transparency. The positive association between EPU and CPD is less pronounced for firms that are more sensitive to EPU, for firms that more actively manage EPU through corporate political contributions or lobbying activities and for firms that are followed by more analysts. The authors also find that more transparent CPD helps to mitigate the information asymmetry caused by heightened EPU. This study’s results hold when the authors control for other types of voluntary corporate disclosure.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the emerging literature on the determinants of CPD transparency by identifying EPU's positive impact on CPD transparency. This study also provides empirical evidence that the proprietary costs arising from the controversial nature of corporate political activities dampen firms' incentives to provide transparent CPD in response to heightened EPU, and that information on corporate political activities gathered and processed by financial analysts seems to lower the marginal benefit to companies of publicizing CPD on their own website.

Die Stichwahl als integrales Element eines Grabenwahlsystems. Ergebnisse von Simulationen mit Bezug auf die deutschen Bundestagswahlen von 2017 und 2021

ZusammenfassungIm Rahmen der Arbeit der vom Deutschen Bundestag eingesetzten Wahlrechtskommission wurde von den Parteien CDU und CSU die Einführung eines Grabenwahlsystems vorgeschlagen, bei dem der Wahlkreisgewinner mit absoluter Mehrheit ermittelt werden soll, in der Regel durch eine Stichwahl in einem zweiten Wahlgang. Als Argumente für ein solches System wurde vorgebracht, dass damit die üblichen Effekte des Grabenwahlsystems wie starke Verzerrungen der Proportionalität und mögliche Umkehrungen der Mehrheitsverhältnisse abgemildert werden könnten. Der Artikel untersucht die zu erwartenden Effekten der Einführung eines Grabenwahlsystems mit absoluter Mehrheitsregel mit Stichwahl für den Deutschen Bundestag anhand von Simulationen für die letzten beiden Bundestagswahlen. Entgegen den Vermutungen kommt es bei einer solchen Ausgestaltung des Grabenwahlsystems zu stärkeren Verzerrungen des Proporzes als bei einem Grabenwahlsystem, das mit der relativen Mehrheitsregel in den Wahlkreisen kombiniert ist. Des Weiteren kommt es häufiger auch zu Umkehrungen der Parlamentsmehrheiten. Die bekannten Nachteile des Grabenwahlsystems werden also in keiner Weise abgeschwächt, ganz im Gegenteil verstärken sie sich noch.

The New Civic Journalism? An Examination of Canadian Public Libraries as Community News Sources During the 2019 and 2021 Federal Election

Background: This article examines to what extent Canadian public libraries participate in civic journalism at a time when news media coverage is declining in many communities. This pilot study was prompted by reports that public libraries in the United States were undertaking civic-minded journalism following the closure of community newspapers. Analysis: A content analysis of 64 Canadian public library websites found nearly a dozen examples of basic news reporting or civic-minded journalism initiatives (basic reporting, n = 8; civic, n = 3) published during the 2019 and 2021 federal election campaigns. This article also articulates and explains the shared goals and philosophy of the civic journalism movement and the mandate of public libraries. Conclusions and implications: While the numbers are small, this is the first empirical evidence of Canadian public library participation in journalism work, and the fact that it exists at all has significance. Whether or not public libraries in Canada continue to participate in civic-minded journalism warrants further attention.

Studying dimensions of representation: introducing the Belgian RepResent panel (2019–2021)

This research note presents the RepResent Belgian Panel (RBP). The RBP is a voter panel survey consisting of four waves fielded to a sample of voters in Belgium around the May 2019 federal, regional, and European elections in Belgium. It provides unique data on about 250 variables for a quota sample of the same respondents, pre-2019 elections (N = 7351), post-2019 elections (N = 3909), one year after the elections (N = 1996), and 2 years after the elections (N = 1119). The RBP panel dataset was designed to analyse voters’ political attitudes and behaviours, notably on different dimensions of democratic representation, and with a specific focus on democratic resentment (e.g. citizens’ attitudes towards democracy such as distrust and alienation, but also behaviours such as abstention, protest, or voting for anti-establishment parties). Its longitudinal structure allows to explore the political dynamics at play in Belgium throughout the lengthy government formation process. Finally, the last two waves of the RBP were fielded during the Covid-19 pandemic, allowing to explore public opinion before and during this global crisis. The RBP should be of interest to scholars of public opinion and electoral studies.