Is Quebec independence still key in making sense of Canadian elections? A longitudinal analysis (2000–2021)

Abstract

ABSTRACT The issue of Quebec independence was, until recently, considered the most important factor motivating Quebeckers’ vote choice in federal elections. However, the conventional wisdom has shifted and now holds, especially since 2011, that the explanatory power of the issue of Quebec secession would have decreased over time and would no longer be deemed as one of the few decisive determinants of citizens’ vote choice calculus. We provide the first longitudinal analysis of the impact of Quebec independence in federal elections using the Canadian Election Study from 2000 to 2021. Our findings show that, as expected, attitudes toward Quebec secession in explaining citizens’ vote choice were more important at the beginning of the twenty-first century, although only when comparing the discrepancy between the 2000 and 2004 elections. Between 2006 and 2021, the importance of Quebec independence has remained stable and key in explaining electoral outcomes.