Familial Cancer Risk Research Articles

Abstract 2565: Prostate cancer GWAS from more than 89,000 men identifies more than 30 novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci

Abstract Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and fine-mapping efforts have identified over 100 loci associated with prostate cancer susceptibility. Combined multiplicatively, these loci capture 33% of the familial risk for prostate cancer among European-ancestral populations. In order to identify novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci we conducted a GWAS involving over 53,000 prostate cancer cases and 36,000 controls using the OncoArray that includes a 260K GWAS backbone and a custom portion of 310K SNPs developed from previous GWAS and fine-mapping studies of multiple cancer types (http://epi.grants.cancer.gov/oncoarray/). Following standard quality control procedures, the prostate cancer OncoArray genotyped data were imputed using the October 2014 release of the 1000 genomes project data as a reference and analyzed by participating study for overall and advanced prostate cancer using logistic regression. The study-specific results were combined using inverse variance fixed effect meta-analysis. Regions surrounding previously associated variants (+/- 500kb of the reported index variant) were excluded to identify novel associations. In the OncoArray meta-analysis, we identified more than 30 novel loci significantly associated (P<5.0×10-8) with overall, advanced (Gleason ≥8, death from PrCa, PSA>100, or disease stage “Distant”), or early-onset (≤55 years of age) prostate cancer. Previous GWAS of prostate cancer are being imputed to the latest release of the 1000 genomes project to enhance our statistical power for novel discovery. In total our overall meta-analysis will incorporate over 176,000 individuals of European ancestry - more than 95,000 prostate cancer cases and 79,000 controls. The current results, as well as the larger ongoing meta-analysis, provide further insight into the underlying mechanisms of prostate cancer carcinogenesis and will improve the utility of genetic risk scores for targeted screening and prostate cancer prevention. Citation Format: Fredrick R. Schumacher, Ali A. Al Olama, Sonja I. Berndt, Fredrik Wiklund, David V. Conti, Mahbubl Ahmed, Sarah Benlloch, Douglas F. Easton, Peter Kraft, Stephen J. Chanock, Brian E. Henderson, Zsofia Kote-Jarai, Christopher A. Haiman, Rosalind A. Eeles. Prostate cancer GWAS from more than 89,000 men identifies more than 30 novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 107th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2016 Apr 16-20; New Orleans, LA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(14 Suppl):Abstract nr 2565.

Family History and Probability of Prostate Cancer, Differentiated by Risk Category: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

Familial prostate cancer risk estimates are inflated by clinically insignificant low-risk cancer, diagnosed after prostate-specific antigen testing. We provide age-specific probabilities of non-low- and high-risk prostate cancer. Fifty-one thousand, eight hundred ninety-seven brothers of 32 807 men with prostate cancer were identified in Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe). Nelson-Aalen estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for cumulative, family history-stratified probabilities of any, non-low- (any of Gleason score ≥ 7, prostate-specific antigen [PSA] ≥ 10 ng/mL, T3-4, N1, and/or M1) and high-risk prostate cancer (Gleason score ≥ 8 and/or T3-4 and/or PSA ≥ 20 ng/mL and/or N1 and/or M1). The population probability of any prostate cancer was 4.8% (95% CI = 4.8% to 4.9%) at age 65 years and 12.9% (95% CI = 12.8% to 12.9%) at age 75 years, of non-low-risk prostate cancer 2.8% (95% CI = 2.7% to 2.8%) at age 65 years and 8.9% (95% CI = 8.8% to 8.9%) at age 75 years, and of high-risk prostate cancer 1.4% (95% CI = 1.3% to 1.4%) at age 65 years and 5.2% (95% CI = 5.1% to 5.2%) at age 75 years. For men with one affected brother, probabilities of any prostate cancer were 14.9% (95% CI = 14.1% to 15.8%) at age 65 years and 30.3% (95% CI = 29.3% to 31.3%) at age 75 years, of non-low-risk prostate cancer 7.3% (95% CI = 6.7% to 7.9%) at age 65 years and 18.8% (95% CI = 17.9% to 19.6%) at age 75 years, and of high-risk prostate cancer 3.0% (95% CI = 2.6% to 3.4%) at age 65 years and 8.9% (95% CI = 8.2% to 9.5%) at age 75 years. Probabilities were higher for men with a stronger family history. For example, men with two affected brothers had a 13.6% (95% CI = 9.9% to 17.6 %) probability of high-risk cancer at age 75 years. The age-specific probabilities of non-low- and high-risk cancer presented here are more informative than relative risks of any prostate cancer and more suitable to use for counseling men with a family history of prostate cancer.

Modeling of successive cancer risks in Lynch syndrome families in the presence of competing risks using copulas.

In this article, we propose an association model to estimate the penetrance (risk) of successive cancers in the presence of competing risks. The association between the successive events is modeled via a copula and a proportional hazards model is specified for each competing event. This work is motivated by the analysis of successive cancers for people with Lynch Syndrome in the presence of competing risks. The proposed inference procedure is adapted to handle missing genetic covariates and selection bias, induced by the data collection protocol of the data at hand. The performance of the proposed estimation procedure is evaluated by simulations and its use is illustrated with data from the Colon Cancer Family Registry (Colon CFR).

A model for patient-direct screening and referral for familial cancer risk.

Patients at increased familial risk of cancer are sub-optimally identified and referred for genetic counseling. We describe a systematic model for information collection, screening and referral for hereditary cancer risk. Individuals from three different clinical and research populations were screened for hereditary cancer risk using a two-tier process: a 7-item screener followed by review of family history by a genetic counselor and application of published criteria. A total of 869 subjects participated in the study; 769 in this high risk population had increased familial cancer risk based on the screening questionnaire. Of these eligible participants, 500 (65.0%) provided family histories and 332 (66.4%) of these were found to be at high risk of a hereditary cancer syndrome, 102 (20.4%) at moderate familial cancer risk, and 66 (13.2%) at average risk. Three months following receipt of the risk result letter, nearly all respondents found the process at least somewhat helpful (98.4%). All participants identified as high-risk were mailed a letter recommending genetic counseling and were provided appointment tools. After 1year, only 13 (7.3%) of 179 high risk respondents reported pursuit of recommended genetic counseling. Participants were willing to provide family history information for the purposes of risk assessment; however, few patients pursued recommended genetic services. This suggests that cancer family history registries are feasible and viable but that further research is needed to increase the uptake of genetic counseling.

Refinement of screening for familial pancreatic cancer

ObjectiveSurveillance programmes are recommended for individuals at risk (IAR) of familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) to detect early pancreatic cancer (pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, PDAC). However, the age to begin screening and...

Increased incidence of bladder cancer, lymphoid leukaemia, and myeloma in a cohort of Queensland melanoma families

Familial cancer risk has been proposed as a shared feature of many cancers, and overall susceptibility is influenced by combinations of low to moderate risk polymorphisms, rare high penetrance germline mutations, and modulation of risk by environmental and genetic factors. Clustering of melanoma occurs in approximately 10% of families, and an over-representation of additional cancers has been noticed in some 'melanoma' families. The degree to which other cancers aggregate in families affected by melanoma has not been well defined. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the risk of cancers other than melanoma in a cohort of 178 'intermediate risk' melanoma families, not selected for specific genetic mutations. Families designated as 'intermediate risk' had two first degree relatives (FDRs) affected by melanoma when ascertained between 1982 and 1990, and were followed up over a 33year period to assess new occurrences of cancer. We included 414 melanoma cases and 529 FDRs, comprising 25,264 person years of observation. Standardised incidence ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated for all invasive cancers, comparing observed to expected cases of cancer based on age and sex specific incidence rates for the Queensland population. Statistically significant increases were found for bladder cancer in females (observed, 7; expected, 1.99; SIR, 3.52; 95% CI 1.41-7.25), lymphoid leukaemia in females (observed, 6; expected, 1.75; SIR, 3.43; 95% CI 1.26-7.46), and myeloma in female melanoma cases (observed, 4; expected, 0.82; SIR, 4.89; 95% CI 1.33-12.52). Over-representation of bladder cancer, lymphoid leukaemia, and myeloma in females of the cohort may suggest sex-dependent co-modifiers, and it is possible that specific combinations of polymorphisms predispose to certain cancer types.

The molecular characteristics of colonic neoplasms in serrated polyposis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Serrated polyposis is a rare disorder characterised by the presence of multiple serrated polyps in the large intestine, and an increased personal and familial risk of colorectal cancer. Knowledge of the molecular characteristics of colonic lesions which develop in this syndrome is fragmented, making it difficult to understand the underlying genetic basis of this condition. We conducted a systematic review and meta‐analysis of all studies which evaluated the molecular characteristics of colorectal neoplasms found in individuals with serrated polyposis. We identified 4561 potentially relevant studies, but due to a lack of consensus in the reporting of findings, only fourteen studies were able to be included in the meta‐analysis. BRAF mutation was found in 73% (95% CI 65–80%) of serrated polyps, 0% (95% CI 0–3%) of conventional adenomas and 49% (95%CI 33–64%) of colorectal cancers. In contrast, KRAS mutation was present in 8% (95% CI 5–11%) of serrated polyps, 3% (95% CI 0–13%) of conventional adenomas and 6% (95% CI 0–13%) of colorectal cancers. Absence of MLH1 immunostaining was found in 3% (95% CI 0–10%) of serrated polyps and 53% (95% CI 36–71%) of colorectal cancers. Overall, microsatellite instability was found in 40% (95% CI 18–64%) of colorectal cancers arising in the setting of serrated polyposis. Our results indicate that diverse molecular pathways are likely to contribute to the increased predisposition for colorectal cancer in individuals with serrated polyposis. We also propose a set of minimum standards for the reporting of future research in serrated polyposis as this is a rare syndrome and collation of research findings from different centres will be essential to identify the molecular mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of this condition.

Atlas of prostate cancer heritability in European and African-American men pinpoints tissue-specific regulation.

Although genome-wide association studies have identified over 100 risk loci that explain ∼33% of familial risk for prostate cancer (PrCa), their functional effects on risk remain largely unknown. Here we use genotype data from 59,089 men of European and African American ancestries combined with cell-type-specific epigenetic data to build a genomic atlas of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) heritability in PrCa. We find significant differences in heritability between variants in prostate-relevant epigenetic marks defined in normal versus tumour tissue as well as between tissue and cell lines. The majority of SNP heritability lies in regions marked by H3k27 acetylation in prostate adenoc7arcinoma cell line (LNCaP) or by DNaseI hypersensitive sites in cancer cell lines. We find a high degree of similarity between European and African American ancestries suggesting a similar genetic architecture from common variation underlying PrCa risk. Our findings showcase the power of integrating functional annotation with genetic data to understand the genetic basis of PrCa.

Fox Chase Cancer Center's Genitourinary Division: a national resource for research, innovation and patient care.

Founded in 1904, Fox Chase Cancer Center remains committed to its mission. It is one of 41 centers in the country designated as a Comprehensive Cancer Center by the National Cancer Institute, is a founding member of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network, holds the magnet designation for nursing excellence, is one of the first to establish a family cancer risk assessment program, and has achieved national distinction because of the scientific discoveries made there that have advanced clinical care. Two of its researchers have won Nobel prizes. The Genitourinary Division is nationally recognized and viewed as one of the top driving forces behind the growth of Fox Chase due to its commitment to initiating and participating in clinical trials, its prolific contributions to peer-reviewed publications and presentations at scientific meetings, its innovations in therapies and treatment strategies, and its commitment to bringing cutting-edge therapies to patients.

Exome sequencing in one family with gastric- and rectal cancer.

BackgroundHeritable factors are well known to increase the risk of cancer in families. Known susceptibility genes account for a small proportion of all colorectal cancer cases. The aim of this study was to identify the genetic background in a family suggested to segregate a dominant cancer syndrome with a high risk of rectal- and gastric cancer. We performed whole exome sequencing in three family members, 2 with rectal cancer and 1 with gastric cancer and followed it up in additional family members, other patients and controls.ResultsWe identified 12 novel non-synonymous single nucleotide variants, which were shared among 5 affected members of this family. The mutations were found in 12 different genes; DZIP1L, PCOLCE2, IGSF10, SUCNR1, OR13C8, EPB41L4B, SEC16A, NOTCH1, TAS2R7, SF3A1, GAL3ST1, and TRIOBP. None of the mutations was suggested as a high penetrant mutation. It was not possible to completely rule out any of the mutations as contributing to disease, although seven were more unlikely than the others. Neither did we rule out the effect of all thousands of intronic, intergenic and synonymous variants shared between the three persons used for exome sequencing.ConclusionsWe propose this family, suggested to segregate dominant disease, could be an example of complex inheritance.

Clinicopathologic Comparison of Lynch Syndrome–associated and “Lynch-like” Endometrial Carcinomas Identified on Universal Screening Using Mismatch Repair Protein Immunohistochemistry

Expanded testing for Lynch syndrome (LS) is increasingly recommended for patients with endometrial carcinomas, and immunohistochemistry (IHC) for tumor loss of mismatch-repair (MMR) protein expression is the most common primary screen. This has led to the recognition of MMR-IHC-deficient cases without identifiable mutations on directed germline sequencing. The clinical implications of such "Lynch-like" (LL) cancers are unclear. We here report the clinicopathologic features of putative familial endometrial carcinoma identified on universal MMR-IHC screening with attention to cases with discordant IHC and germline results. The files of the University of Virginia Pathology Department were retrospectively searched for all MMR-deficient endometrial carcinomas identified on screening. Cases were categorized as likely sporadic (MLH1/PMS2 loss, evidence of MLH1 promoter hypermethylation) or putative LS (PLS) (loss of MSH2/MSH6, MSH6, or PMS2). PLS cases were further subdivided into LS and LL groups on the basis of the presence or absence of a confirmatory mutation by germline testing, and the clinicopathologic features of these cases were compared. A deficiency of ≥1 MMR protein was observed in 31.4% (66/210) of endometrial carcinomas, including 26 PLS cases, 15 of which had germline testing. Directed germline sequencing confirmed LS in 46.7% (7/15); the remaining cases were classified as LL. High-grade and/or biphasic morphology was seen in 42.9% (3/7) of LS and 62.5% (5/8) of LL cases; the remaining cases showed low-grade, conventional endometrioid morphology. High level microsatellite instability was observed in 71.4% (5/7) of LL cases. The majority of cases from both groups (LS: 85.7% [6/7]; LL: 87.5% [7/8]) were low-stage (T1a/T1b). Endometrial carcinoma was the presenting malignancy in 85.7% (6/7) of LS patients and 87.5% (7/8) of LL patients. Family history was suggestive of LS in 28.5% (2/7) of LS patients and 12.5% (1/8) of LL patients. Screening algorithms based on age and cancer history would have failed to identify LS patients in 57.1% (4/7) of cases. Although universal MMR-IHC identifies endometrial carcinoma patients with LS who would have been missed using targeted screening algorithms, it also identifies cancers with discordant IHC and germline results for which the somatic versus germline origin of the MMR defect is unclear. Further study of this LL group is required before drawing definitive conclusions about their familial cancer risk.

Letter to the Editor: The HABP2 G534E Variant Is Unlikely to Be Implicated in the Risk of Familial or Sporadic Nonmedullary Thyroid Cancer

Letter to the Editor: The <i>HABP2</i> G534E Variant Is Unlikely to Be Implicated in the Risk of Familial or Sporadic Nonmedullary Thyroid Cancer

Impact of lymphoma survivorship clinic visit on patient-centered outcomes.

64 Background: The goals of our Lymphoma Survivorship Clinic (SC) are to coordinate care, educate patients, and create a survivorship care plan (SCP). The aim of this study was to determine if patient-centered outcomes are improved after a SC visit. Methods: From 11/13-5/15, surveys were mailed to recently-treated lymphoma patients who were within 4 weeks of their last visit and in remission. Quality of life (QOL) was measured with PROMIS and distress was measured with the Impact of Events scale. Responses between those who attended SC and those who were eligible but did not attend were analyzed. Results: There were 96 surveys sent to the SC group; 59 were returned (61% response rate). Of the non-SC group, 140 surveys were sent and 84 were returned (60% response rate). Mean age was 57 years (range 23-77) in the SC group and 59 years (23-88) in the non-SC group. There were more females in the SC group (52% vs 30%) but no differences in race, marital status, education, or health literacy. Those who attended the SC were more likely to recall receiving a summary of cancer treatment and recommendations for follow-up care (90% SC vs. 75% non-SC, p = 0.03). Furthermore, SC attendees were more likely to “definitely” recall discussion on improving health or preventing illness (89% vs. 53%), getting help in making changes in habits/lifestyle (76% vs. 50%), diet (80% vs. 31%), and exercise (82% vs. 51%), all p &lt; 0.001. There were no differences in discussions regarding smoking, follow-up testing, and symptom monitoring. The SC group was less likely to need more information regarding sexuality (6% vs 20%, p = 0.045). There were no differences in need for information regarding anxiety, fitness, familial cancer risk, fertility, complementary therapies, and social issues. The SC group was slightly more confident that they could get information or advice related to cancer (completely confident 76% vs. 61%, p = 0.07). There were no differences in QOL or distress. Conclusions: A Lymphoma SC visit increased receipt of SCP and provided more information on survivorship issues, particularly health behaviors, but did not improve QOL or distress. Further study is needed to determine if this leads to long-term health benefits.

Post-mortem testing; germline BRCA1/2 variant detection using archival FFPE non-tumor tissue. A new paradigm in genetic counseling.

Accurate estimation of cancer risk in HBOC families often requires BRCA1/2 testing, but this may be impossible in deceased family members. Previous, testing archival formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue for germline BRCA1/2 variants was unsuccessful, except for the Jewish founder mutations. A high-throughput method to systematically test for variants in all coding regions of BRCA1/2 in archival FFPE samples of non-tumor tissue is described, using HaloPlex target enrichment and next-generation sequencing. In a validation study, correct identification of variants or wild-type was possible in 25 out of 30 (83%) FFPE samples (age range 1–14 years), with a known variant status in BRCA1/2. No false positive was found. Unsuccessful identification was due to highly degraded DNA or presence of large intragenic deletions. In clinical use, a total of 201 FFPE samples (aged 0–43 years) were processed. Thirty-six samples were rejected because of highly degraded DNA or failed library preparation. Fifteen samples were investigated to search for a known variant. In the remaining 150 samples (aged 0–38 years), three variants known to affect function and one variant likely to affect function in BRCA1, six variants known to affect function and one variant likely to affect function in BRCA2, as well as four variants of unknown significance (VUS) in BRCA1 and three VUS in BRCA2 were discovered. It is now possible to test for germline BRCA1/2 variants in deceased persons, using archival FFPE samples from non-tumor tissue. Accurate genetic counseling is achievable in families where variant testing would otherwise be impossible.

Familial Risk and Heritability of Cancer Among Twins in Nordic Countries.

Estimates of familial cancer risk from population-based studies are essential components of cancer risk prediction. To estimate familial risk and heritability of cancer types in a large twin cohort. Prospective study of 80,309 monozygotic and 123,382 same-sex dizygotic twin individuals (N = 203,691) within the population-based registers of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Twins were followed up a median of 32 years between 1943 and 2010. There were 50,990 individuals who died of any cause, and 3804 who emigrated and were lost to follow-up. Shared environmental and heritable risk factors among pairs of twins. The main outcome was incident cancer. Time-to-event analyses were used to estimate familial risk (risk of cancer in an individual given a twin's development of cancer) and heritability (proportion of variance in cancer risk due to interindividual genetic differences) with follow-up via cancer registries. Statistical models adjusted for age and follow-up time, and accounted for censoring and competing risk of death. A total of 27,156 incident cancers were diagnosed in 23,980 individuals, translating to a cumulative incidence of 32%. Cancer was diagnosed in both twins among 1383 monozygotic (2766 individuals) and 1933 dizygotic (2866 individuals) pairs. Of these, 38% of monozygotic and 26% of dizygotic pairs were diagnosed with the same cancer type. There was an excess cancer risk in twins whose co-twin was diagnosed with cancer, with estimated cumulative risks that were an absolute 5% (95% CI, 4%-6%) higher in dizygotic (37%; 95% CI, 36%-38%) and an absolute 14% (95% CI, 12%-16%) higher in monozygotic twins (46%; 95% CI, 44%-48%) whose twin also developed cancer compared with the cumulative risk in the overall cohort (32%). For most cancer types, there were significant familial risks and the cumulative risks were higher in monozygotic than dizygotic twins. Heritability of cancer overall was 33% (95% CI, 30%-37%). Significant heritability was observed for the cancer types of skin melanoma (58%; 95% CI, 43%-73%), prostate (57%; 95% CI, 51%-63%), nonmelanoma skin (43%; 95% CI, 26%-59%), ovary (39%; 95% CI, 23%-55%), kidney (38%; 95% CI, 21%-55%), breast (31%; 95% CI, 11%-51%), and corpus uteri (27%; 95% CI, 11%-43%). In this long-term follow-up study among Nordic twins, there was significant excess familial risk for cancer overall and for specific types of cancer, including prostate, melanoma, breast, ovary, and uterus. This information about hereditary risks of cancers may be helpful in patient education and cancer risk counseling.

Advances in Genetic Testing for Hereditary Cancer Syndromes.

The ability to identify genetic mutations causing an increased risk of cancer represents the first widespread example of personalised medicine, in which genetic information is used to inform patients of their cancer risks and direct an appropriate strategy to minimise those risks. Increasingly, an understanding of the genetic basis of many cancers also facilitates selection of the most effective therapeutic options. The technology underlying genetic testing has been revolutionised in the years since the completion of the Human Genome Project in 2001. This has advanced knowledge of the genetic factors underlying familial cancer risk, and has also improved genetic testing capacity allowing a larger number of patients to be tested for a constitutional cancer predisposition. To use these tests safely and effectively, they must be assessed for their ability to provide accurate and useful results, and be requested and interpreted by health professionals with an understanding of their strengths and limitations. Genetic testing is increasing in its scope and ambition with each year that passes, requiring a greater proportion of the healthcare workforce to acquire a working knowledge of genetics and genetic testing to manage their patients safely and sensitively.

Initial clinical validation of Health Heritage, a patient-facing tool for personal and family history collection and cancer risk assessment.

Personal and family health histories remain important independent risk factors for cancer; however they are currently not being well collected or used effectively. Health Heritage was designed to address this need. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of Health Heritage to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to accurately stratify cancer risk. A retrospective chart review was conducted on 100 random patients seen at an adult genetics clinic presenting with concern for an inherited predisposition to cancer. Relevant personal and family history obtained from the patients' medical records was entered into Health Heritage. Recommendations by Health Heritage were compared to national guidelines of eligibility for genetic evaluation. Agreement between Health Heritage referral for genetic evaluation and guideline eligibility for genetic evaluation was 97% (sensitivity 98% and specificity 88%). Risk stratification for cancer was also compared between Health Heritage and those documented by a geneticist. For patients at increased risk for breast, ovarian, or colorectal cancer as determined by the geneticist, risk stratification by Health Heritage agreed 90, 93, and 75%, respectively. Discordances in risk stratification were attributed to both complex situations better handled by the geneticist and Health Heritage's adherence to incorporating all information into its algorithms. Health Heritage is a clinically valid tool to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to encourage them to confirm the assessment and management recommendations with cancer genetic experts. Health Heritage also provides an estimate of cancer risk that is complementary to a genetics team.

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial

SummaryBackgroundOvarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the effect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality.MethodsIn this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50–74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer-generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032.FindingsBetween June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202 638 women: 50 640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50 639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101 359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202 546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50 624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50 623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101 299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345 570 MMS and 327 775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0–12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0–14 of 15% (95% CI −3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (−7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar flexible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality effect was made up of 8% (−20 to 31) in years 0–7 and 23% (1–46) in years 7–14, and in the USS group, of 2% (−27 to 26) in years 0–7 and 21% (−2 to 42) in years 7–14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (−2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (−27 to 43) in years 0–7 and 28% (−3 to 49) in years 7–14 in favour of MMS.InterpretationAlthough the mortality reduction was not significant in the primary analysis, we noted a significant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7–14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening.FundingMedical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, The Eve Appeal.

Determining the familial risk distribution of colorectal cancer: a data mining approach.

This study was aimed to characterize the distribution of colorectal cancer risk using family history of cancers by data mining. Family histories for 10,066 colorectal cancer cases recruited to population cancer registries of the Colon Cancer Family Registry were analyzed using a data mining framework. A novel index was developed to quantify familial cancer aggregation. Artificial neural network was used to identify distinct categories of familial risk. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer were calculated for each category. We identified five major, and 66 minor categories of familial risk for developing colorectal cancer. The distribution the major risk categories were: (1) 7% of families (SIR = 7.11; 95% CI 6.65-7.59) had a strong family history of colorectal cancer; (2) 13% of families (SIR = 2.94; 95% CI 2.78-3.10) had a moderate family history of colorectal cancer; (3) 11% of families (SIR = 1.23; 95% CI 1.12-1.36) had a strong family history of breast cancer and a weak family history of colorectal cancer; (4) 9 % of families (SIR = 1.06; 95 % CI 0.96-1.18) had strong family history of prostate cancer and weak family history of colorectal cancer; and (5) 60% of families (SIR = 0.61; 95% CI 0.57-0.65) had a weak family history of all cancers. There is a wide variation of colorectal cancer risk that can be categorized by family history of cancer, with a strong gradient of colorectal cancer risk between the highest and lowest risk categories. The risk of colorectal cancer for people with the highest risk category of family history (7% of the population) was 12-times that for people in the lowest risk category (60%) of the population. Data mining was proven an effective approach for gaining insight into the underlying cancer aggregation patterns and for categorizing familial risk of colorectal cancer.

Structuring Health in Colorectal Cancer Screening Conversations: An Analysis of Intersecting Activity Systems

This study used structurating activity theory to analyze 21 conversations between genetic counselors and individuals at increased risk for familial colorectal cancer. The qualitative analysis revealed ways elements of family, primary health care, cancer prevention and treatment, and other systems emerged in intervention conversations as shaping colorectal cancer screening attitudes and behaviors. Results indicate that family stories, norms, and roles are resources for enacting health practices in families and that the authority of health care providers is a resource for making screening decisions. Conclusions include practical implications for using findings in clinical applications as well as future research directions to build on this exploratory study.