False Alarm Research Articles

Imaging performance prediction of a hypersonic target in a geosynchronous orbit based on multi-dimensional information correlation of radiation, multi-spectral, and polarization

Hypersonic target detection based on infrared intensity characteristics is easily disturbed by sea surface and cloud flares when detected by space-based optical systems, which results in a low detection rate, high false alarm, and difficulty in stable detection. This paper explores a method to improve target detection performance based on the correlation of infrared radiation, multi-spectral and polarization. Firstly, the comprehensive factors that influence complex ambient illumination, atmospheric transmission, and clutter background on spectral-polarization characteristics of hypersonic targets are analyzed. Based on the global radiation scattering theory, the temperature distribution model of the hypersonic target is established by using FLUENT. The polarization emission and pBRDF model of the target is established, and the radiation polarization transfer model is generated. Secondly, the sea surface temperature distribution is obtained by inversion of Landsat8 remote sensing data. The radiation polarization transfer model of the sea surface is established based on the Cox-Munk model combined with pBRDF and the polarization emission model. Thirdly, the polarization scattering effect of atmospheric particles on the upward radiation of the interaction of the target with the sunlight is considered comprehensively, and the 6SV radiative transfer model is used to calculate the polarization effect of atmospheric particles on the upward radiation transmission of the target and the background. Then, combined with the point diffusion of the optical system and the photoelectric conversion of the detector, the multi-dimensional full-chain imaging prediction model of the hypersonic target-sea background-ambient atmosphere-optical system-detector is established. The imaging characteristics and detection performance of the target in different imaging dimensions are simulated and analyzed with the signal-to-clutter ratio (SCR). The research shows that in the direction of reflected sunlight from the sea surface, the sea surface glare is suppressed and the target is highlighted through a target detection method of multi-dimensional information. This method has better detection results than the infrared multi-spectral detection method.

Reliable detection of generalized convulsive seizures using an off-the-shelf digital watch: A multisite phase 2 study.

The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning algorithm using an off-the-shelf digital watch, the Samsung watch (SM-R800), and evaluate its effectiveness for the detection of generalized convulsive seizures (GCS) in persons with epilepsy. This multisite epilepsy monitoring unit (EMU) phase 2 study included 36 adult patients. Each patient wore a Samsung watch that contained accelerometer, gyroscope, and photoplethysmographic sensors. Sixty-eight time and frequency domain features were extracted from the sensor data and were used to train a random forest algorithm. A testing framework was developed that would better reflect the EMU setting, consisting of (1) leave-one-patient-out cross-validation (LOPO CV) on GCS patients, (2) false alarm rate (FAR) testing on nonseizure patients, and (3) "fixed-and-frozen" prospective testing on a prospective patient cohort. Balanced accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and FAR were used to quantify the performance of the algorithm. Seizure onsets and offsets were determined by using video-electroencephalographic (EEG) monitoring. Feature importance was calculated as the mean decrease in Gini impurity during the LOPO CV testing. LOPO CV results showed balanced accuracy of .93 (95% confidence interval [CI] = .8-.98), precision of .68 (95% CI = .46-.85), sensitivity of .87 (95% CI = .62-.96), and FAR of .21/24 h (interquartile range [IQR] = 0-.90). Testing the algorithm on patients without seizure resulted in an FAR of .28/24 h (IQR = 0-.61). During the "fixed-and-frozen" prospective testing, two patients had three GCS, which were detected by the algorithm, while generating an FAR of .25/24 h (IQR = 0-.89). Feature importance showed that heart rate-based features outperformed accelerometer/gyroscope-based features. Commercially available wearable digital watches that reliably detect GCS, with minimum false alarm rates, may overcome usage adoption and other limitations of custom-built devices. Contingent on the outcomes of a prospective phase 3 study, such devices have the potential to provide non-EEG-based seizure surveillance and forecasting in the clinical setting.

A Review on Securing Wireless Networks against Jamming Attacks

The internet of thins (IoT) framework has helped in design of high speed connected networks which include Wide Area Networks (WANs). Cognitive Radio can be considered to be one of the key enablers of high speed data transfer with evolving generation of wireless networks. Cognitive networks find their applications in military and defence as well with the advent of internet of things and its allied applications in military warfare. Cognitive Radio Networks often share common resources such as bandwidth or spectrum among several users or stations. Due to continued sharing of resources, cognitive networks often come under security attacks, most common of which are jamming and eavesdropping attacks. In this paper, the basics of cognitive IoT networks have been presented with the focus of security aware cognitive IoT networks. Previous work in the allied domain has been discussed along with their salient features. Keywords: Wide Area Network (WAN), Internet of Things (IoT), cognitive radio network (CRN), security aware spectrum assignment, cyber-attacks, false alarm, and throughput.

Lightweight Hardware-Based Cache Side-Channel Attack Detection for Edge Devices (Edge-CaSCADe)

Cache Side Channel Attacks (CSCA) have been haunting most processor architectures for decades now. Existing approaches to mitigation of such attacks have certain drawbacks namely software mishandling, performance overhead, low throughput due to false alarms, etc. Hence, “mitigation only when detected” should be the approach to minimize the effects of such drawbacks. We propose a novel methodology of fine-grained detection of timing-based CSCA using a hardware-based detection module. We discuss the design, implementation, and use of our proposed detection module in processor architectures. Our approach successfully detects attacks that flush secret victim information from cache memory like Flush+Reload, Flush+Flush, Prime+Probe, Evict+Probe, and Prime+Abort, commonly known as cache timing attacks. Detection is on time with minimal performance overhead. The parameterizable number of counters used in our module allows detection of multiple attacks on multiple sensitive locations simultaneously. The fine-grained nature ensures negligible false alarms, severely reducing the need for any unnecessary mitigation. The proposed work is evaluated by synthesizing the entire detection algorithm as an attack detection block, Edge-CaSCADe, in a RISC-V processor as a target example. The detection results are checked under different workload conditions with respect to the number of attackers, the number of victims having RSA,AES and ECC based encryption schemes like ECIES, and on benchmark applications like MiBench and Embench. More than \(98\% \) detection accuracy within \(2\% \) of the beginning of an attack can be achieved with negligible false alarms. The detection module has an area and power overhead of \(0.9\% \) to \(2\% \) and \(1\% \) to \(2.1\% \) for the targeted RISC-V processor core without cache for 1 to 5 counters, respectively. The detection module does not affect the processor critical path and hence has no impact on its maximum operating frequency.

Channel Knowledge Map Construction Based on a UAV-Assisted Channel Measurement System

With the fast development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), reliable UAV communication is becoming increasingly vital. The channel knowledge map (CKM) is a crucial bridge connecting the environment and the propagation channel that may visually depict channel characteristics. This paper presents a comprehensive scheme based on a UAV-assisted channel measurement system for constructing the CKM in real-world scenarios. Firstly, a three-dimensional (3D) CKM construction scheme for real-world scenarios is provided, which involves channel knowledge extraction, mapping, and completion. Secondly, an algorithm of channel knowledge extraction and completion is proposed. The sparse channel knowledge is extracted based on the sliding correlation and constant false alarm rate (CFAR) approaches. The 3D Kriging interpolation is used to complete the sparse channel knowledge. Finally, a UAV-assisted channel measurement system is developed and CKM measurement campaigns are conducted in campus and farmland scenarios. The path loss (PL) and root mean square delay spread (RMS-DS) are measured at different heights to determine CKMs. The measured and analyzed results show that the proposed construction scheme can effectively and accurately construct the CKMs in real-world scenarios.

Improvements on Phase Classification Using Atmospheric Melting and Refreezing Energy Based on Soundings

AbstractDetermining precipitation as solid (snow) or liquid (rain) phase is crucial for remote sensing of precipitation. Most phase classification methods rely on near‐surface temperatures. Further attempts to incorporate atmospheric information aloft only achieved mixed level of success, particularly for precipitation with temperature inversion. In our study, we developed a phase classification scheme based on the upper‐level melting energy (ME) and refreezing energy (RE), which is proportional to the area enclosed by the temperature profile and the 0°C isotherm. We performed least squares fitting and linear discriminant analysis to derive phase separation functions using observed surface and sounding data in North America. We provided separation functions for snow conditional probabilities ranging from 30% to 80% for various applications. Compared to a previously published (Probsnow) method, our energy method achieved comparable performance for Type 1 soundings with one near‐surface melting layer, and significantly improves the phase classification scores for Type 2 soundings with an aloft melting layer and a near‐surface refreezing layer. We innovatively combined surface ice‐bulb temperature with the ratio between the ME and RE to represent Type 2 profiles. For Type 2 soundings, our energy method improves the Heidke skill score (HSS) from 0.25 to 0.47 and reduces false alarm rate (FAR) by 0.47 compared to the Probsnow method for 50% threshold. By applying the physically based method, we improved accuracy and HSS, and reduced FAR for more than two thirds of the evaluation stations across the North America. Finally, we tested the application of the new method in satellite snowfall retrievals.

A group target track‐before‐detect approach using two‐stage strategy with maximum‐likelihood probabilistic data association

AbstractIn tracking scenarios involving groups with dense targets, achieving effective data association is challenging due to mutual occlusion and interference among targets. The complexity of the tracking problem is further exacerbated in low‐observable environments by the increase in false alarm rates. The track‐before‐detect (TBD) is an advanced technology for detecting and tracking low‐observable targets, effectively mitigating data association problems by integrating multi‐frame echo data. However, the existing multi‐target TBD algorithms typically assume that the targets are spatially separated and are not suitable for scenarios involving group targets. A group target maximum‐likelihood probabilistic data association (GT‐ML‐PDA) algorithm, based on the concept of TBD, is proposed to track group targets effectively in low‐observable environments. The proposed algorithm divides group target tracking into two stages: group centre trajectory estimation and individual target trajectory estimation. To enhance the performance of the proposed algorithm, two strategies are suggested: modifying the equivalent measurements and extracting independent measurement sets for individual targets. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is capable of effectively tracking numerous individual targets within a group, even in the presence of heavy clutter.

A falls recognition framework based on faster R-CNN and temporal action sequences that can be deployed on home service robots

With the popularity of home service robots (e.g. floor sweepers), robots should be considered to have more features for older adult care. Compared to fixed home monitors with a limited field of view, fall detection with service robots is an ideal solution to keep older adults and disabled people within sight. However, the user’s actions, such as lying on the bed to sleep or slumping on the sofa to rest, cause the traditional fall detection system to generate false alarms, which disrupts the user’s family life. The present work proposed an enhanced faster R-convolutional neural network (CNN) network by incorporating temporal action sequences and fall acceleration computation, demonstrating a reduced misjudgment rate on the service robot platform. Firstly, motion images were captured to obtain the target’s motion area description and action timing at the input stage. Then, the faster R-CNN algorithm was implemented to check the suspected falls further based on the falling acceleration of the detected actions during the training phase. Finally, the proposed temporal action sequences module eliminated the action mistaken for falling. Network training and robotic platform testing demonstrated that the proposed approach distinguished between falls and false alarms, which mitigated the occurrence of false positives. On the service robot platform, experimental results showed that the FAR was 8.19 and processing time was 0.79 s.

Realtime Selection of Optimal Source Parameters Using Ground Motion Envelopes

It is increasingly common for seismic networks to operate multiple independent automatic algorithms to characterise earthquakes in real-time, such as in earthquake early warning (EEW) or even standard network practice. Commonly used methods to select the best solution at a given time are simple and use ad hoc rules. An absolute measure of how well a solution (event origin and magnitude) matches the observations by the goodness-of-fit between the observed and predicted envelopes is a robust and independent metric to select optimal solutions. We propose such a measure that is calculated as a combination of amplitude and cross-correlation fit. This metric can be used to determine when a preferred solution reaches an appropriate confidence level for alerting, or indeed to compare two (or more) different event characterisations directly. We demonstrate that our approach can also be used to suppress false alarms commonly seen at seismic networks. Tests using the 10 largest earthquakes in Switzerland between 2013 and 2020, and events that caused false alarms demonstrate that our approach can effectively prefer solutions with small errors in location and magnitude, and can clearly identify and discard false origins or incorrect magnitudes, at all time scales, starting with the first event characterisation.

Characterizing the performances of different observational precipitation products and their uncertainties over Africa

Validation of observed gridded precipitation datasets sourced from satellites or reanalysis over Africa remains a challenge due to the dearth of in-situ products that can act as a true estimate. To address this gap, this study compares the performance of different precipitation products (gauge, reanalysis, and satellite-based) sourced from the Frequent Rainfall Observations on GridS (FROGS) database over Africa. Satellite products are classified as corrected (incorporating gauge observations into their algorithms) or uncorrected, which implies that temporal variations depend entirely on the satellite. The main aim is to identify regions where precipitation products depict minimal uncertainties, supporting the use of the datasets in understanding precipitation variability in the specific regions. This is achieved by applying the triple collocation approach, which takes advantage of three collocated datasets of the same variable to derive the mean square error without requiring knowledge of the true value. The results show that light precipitation (1–5 mm d−1) was prevalent in most regions of Africa during the study duration (2001–2016). Estimating the spatial distribution of daily precipitation greater than the 90th percentiles suggests that extreme precipitation is mainly detected over the Central Africa region and coastal regions of West Africa, where the majority of uncorrected satellite products show consistent performance. The satellite product CMORPH_V1_RAW shows higher estimates of 90th percentile precipitation among the uncorrected satellite products. The ability of precipitation products to detect rainy or non-rainy days shows that corrected satellite products depict notable agreement for probability of detection and false alarm ratio over most regions of Africa. Overall, better performance is demonstrated by the IMERG products, ARCv2, CHIRPSv2 and PERSIANN_CDRv1r1 (corrected), and GPCC, CPC_v1.0 and REGEN_ALL (gauge) during the study period. Among the reanalysis products, ERA5 datasets shows good performance in estimating daily precipitation over Africa. The optimal maps that show the classification of products in regions where they depict reliable performance can be recommended for various usage by different stakeholders.

High-Speed Spatial–Temporal Saliency Model: A Novel Detection Method for Infrared Small Moving Targets Based on a Vectorized Guided Filter

Infrared (IR) imaging-based detection systems are of vital significance in the domains of early warning and security, necessitating a high level of precision and efficiency in infrared small moving target detection. IR targets often appear dim and small relative to the background and are easily buried by noise and difficult to detect. A novel high-speed spatial–temporal saliency model (HS-STSM) based on a guided filter (GF) is proposed, which innovatively introduces GF into IR target detection to extract the local anisotropy saliency in the spatial domain, and substantially suppresses the background region as well as the bright clutter false alarms present in the background. Moreover, the proposed model extracts the motion saliency of the target in the temporal domain through vectorization of IR image sequences. Additionally, the proposed model significantly improves the detection efficiency through a vectorized filtering process and effectively suppresses edge components in the background by integrating a prior weight. Experiments conducted on five real infrared image sequences demonstrate the superior performance of the model compared to existing algorithms in terms of the detection rate, noise suppression, real-time processing, and robustness to the background.

Pt/Zn-TCPP Nanozyme-Based Flexible Immunoassay for Dual-Mode Pressure-Temperature Monitoring of Low-Abundance Proteins.

Pressure and temperature, as common physical parameters, are important for monitoring human health. In contrast, single-mode monitoring is prone to causing experimental errors. Herein, we innovatively designed a dual-mode flexible sensing platform based on a platinum/zinc-meso-tetrakis(4-carboxyphenyl)porphyrin (Pt/Zn-TCPP) nanozyme for the quantitative monitoring of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) in biological fluids with pressure and temperature readouts. The Pt/Zn-TCPP nanozyme with catalytic and photothermal efficiencies was synthesized by means of integrating photosensitizers into porous materials. The flexible sensing system after the antigen-antibody reaction recognized the pressure using a flexible skin-like pressure sensor with a digital multimeter readout, whereas the temperature was acquired via the photoheat conversion system of the Pt/Zn-TCPP nanozyme under 808 nm near-infrared (NIR) irradiation using a portable NIR imaging camera on a smartphone. Meanwhile, the dual-mode flexible sensing system was carried out on a homemade three-dimensional (3D)-printed device. Results revealed that the developed dual-mode immunosensing platform could exhibit good pressure and temperature responses within the dynamic range of 0.5-100 ng mL-1 CEA with the detection limits of 0.24 and 0.13 ng mL-1, respectively. In addition, the pressure and temperature were sensed simultaneously without crosstalk interference. Importantly, the dual-mode flexible immunosensing system can effectively avoid false alarms during the measurement, thus providing great potential for simple and low-cost development for point-of-care testing.

Factors influencing subseasonal predictability of northern Eurasian cold spells

AbstractCold‐air outbreaks have significant impacts on human health, energy consumption, agriculture, and overall well‐being. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) models in predicting cold conditions over northern Eurasia, defined here as the lower tercile of weekly mean 2‐metre temperature anomalies. To assess the predictability of these events we use ensemble hindcasts from five prediction systems from the S2S database. Our analysis focuses on identifying the conditions under which the models confidently predict cold temperatures with a high (>0.5) probability 3–4 weeks ahead, which potentially can represent windows of forecast opportunity. We compare the group of forecasts that correctly predicted the events to the group that forecasted events that did not occur in practice (false alarms). Most of the confident forecasts of cold spells, both correct and false alarms, have cold anomalies already in the initial conditions, often in conjunction with either a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or Scandinavian Blocking. We find that S2S models tend to overpredict cold temperatures, with false alarms occurring more likely when the forecasts are initialized during a weak polar vortex. Furthermore, most of the confident false alarms receive the signal from the stratosphere rather than following internal tropospheric dynamics. False alarms initialized during the weak polar vortex conditions are more common when the vortex is in a recovery stage and, subsequently, the downward ‐propagating signal is short‐lived in the troposphere. The analysis of forecasts during different Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases shows that nearly half of all confident correct cold‐temperature forecasts are initialized during an active MJO in phases 6–8. On the other hand, most false alarms occur during phase 3, which we suggest is due to the presence of the Scandinavian Blocking regime in the initial conditions for this phase.

Research on fire detection method of complex space based on multi-sensor data fusion

Efficient and reliable fire detection methods are essential for addressing complex spatial characteristics of older residential communities, which often face poor fire safety conditions, various fire types, and challenges in rescue operations. In response to the problem of lacking comprehensive analysis of multidimensional data in traditional fire detection, which often leads to false alarms and missed alarms, this paper proposes a fire detection method based on multi-sensor data fusion. Various sensors are employed, including smoke sensors, temperature sensors, CO sensors, and flame sensors. These sensors collect multidimensional data, which are fused using improved adaptive filters and fuzzy Bayesian logical reasoning algorithms to establish a fire detection model based on multi-sensor data fusion. To additionally, false alarms and missed detections caused by sensor damage are further solved by exploring hidden spaces. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed fire detection system based on multi-sensor data fusion effectively analyses fire occurrence and progression in older residential communities, and performs stability, accuracy and real-time property.

Building consumption anomaly detection: A comparative study of two probabilistic approaches

This paper investigates the performance of two probabilistic approaches, Ensemble batch Prediction Intervals (EnbPI) a conformal prediction approach and XGBoost Location, Scale and Shape (XGBoostLSS), in predicting building energy consumption and in detecting systemic anomalies with proposed alarm matrix. The research questions focus on the effectiveness of these models in providing both point and probabilistic predictions and their utility in identifying collective anomalies. Both models showed good point and distribution prediction performance. For example, the observed point prediction had CV-RMSE in the range of 9 to 17%, outperforming recommendations from ASHRAE. Furthermore, a post-processing stage, the alarm matrix, effectively flags collective, repetitive anomalies, thus shifting focus from conventional point anomalies. The EnbPI-based method yields higher recall rates, with a trade-off of having more false alarms, while XGBoostLSS-based method excels in precision, minimizing overlooked alarms. Moreover, a robustness analysis was carried out to evaluate how these models performed when faced with training datasets containing anomalies. The robustness analysis revealed that the EnbPI-based method was more prone to overfitting, meaning its performance actually improved when the training data included some noise. On the other hand, the XGBoostLSS-based method was more stable, performing well with low levels of noise with performance drop when the noise level was high. While the findings contribute significantly to building energy consumption prediction and anomaly detection, future research could address performance in dynamic environments for the methodology and explore continual learning strategies.

Automotive Parts Defect Detection Based on YOLOv7

Various complex defects can occur on the surfaces of small automobile parts during manufacturing. Compared with other datasets, the auto parts defect dataset used in this paper has low detection accuracy due to various defects with large size differences, and traditional target detection algorithms have been proven to be ineffective, which often leads to missing detection or wrong identification. To address these issues, this paper introduces a defect detection algorithm based on YOLOv7. To enhance the detection of small objects and streamline the model, we incorporate the ECA attention mechanism into the network structure’s backbone. Considering the small sizes of defect targets on automotive parts and the complexity of their backgrounds, we redesign the neck portion of the model. This redesign includes the integration of the BiFPN feature fusion module to enhance feature fusion, with the aim of minimizing missed detections and false alarms. Additionally, we employ the Alpha-IoU loss function in the prediction phase to enhance the model’s accuracy, which is crucial for reducing false detection. The IoU loss function also boosts the model’s efficiency at converging. The evaluation of this model utilized the Northeastern University steel dataset and a proprietary dataset and demonstrated that the average accuracy (mAP) of the MBEA-YOLOv7 detection network was 76.2% and 94.1%, respectively. These figures represent improvements of 5.7% and 4.7% over the original YOLOv7 network. Moreover, the detection speed for individual images ranges between 1–2 ms. This enhancement in detection accuracy for small targets does not compromise detection speed, fulfilling the requirements for real-time, dynamic inspection of defects.

Phantom perception as a Bayesian Inference problem - a pilot study.

Tinnitus is the perception of a sound in the absence of an external source. Although the role of the auditory system is well investigates, there is a gap in how multisensory signals are integrated to produce a single percept in tinnitus. Here, we train participants to learn a new sensory environment by associating a cue with a target signal that varies in perceptual threshold. In the test phase, we present only the cue to see if the person perceives an illusion of the target signal. We perform two separate experiments to observe the behavioural and electrophysiological responses to the learning and test phases in (i) healthy young adults and (ii) people with continuous subjective tinnitus and matched controls. We observed that in both parts of the study, the percentage of false alarms was negatively correlated with the 75% detection threshold. Additionally, the perception of an illusion goes together with increased evoked response potential in frontal regions of the brain. In patients with tinnitus, we observe no significant difference in behavioural or evoked response in the auditory paradigm, whereas patients with tinnitus were more likely to report false alarms going together with increased evoked activity during the learning and test phases in the visual paradigm. This impresses the importance of integrity of sensory pathways in multisensory integration and how this process may be disrupted in people with tinnitus. Furthermore, the current study also presents preliminary data supporting evidence that tinnitus patients maybe building stronger perceptual models.

Improving performance of defect detection by setting skewed tolerance and joint tolerances in crimp force monitor

AbstractA Crimp Force Monitor (CFM) detects defects by whether the crimp force curve of the force sensor exceeds the set tolerance, with the goal of low defect miss rate and false alarm rate. In this study, typical defects made by hand are crimped with an automatic crimping machine together with good products to obtain continuous data of the crimping force curves and to process the data. For the peak and area deviations of the crimp force curve, the good products show skew‐normal distribution, and the defective samples show outliers and different deviation intensities in the positive and negative directions. Furthermore, by manually intervening in the batch production of multiple groups of defects and comparing the defect miss rate and false alarm rate of CFM with different tolerance settings, the peak skewed tolerance, joint loose tolerance and joint skewed tolerance tree settings can meet a low defect miss rate and low false alarm rate at the same time. The group test results verify the skew‐normal distribution of crimping force curve deviation rate and the characteristics of deviation intensities, providing reference for the tolerance setting of CFM in automated terminal crimping production.

Developing Bayesian EWMA chart for change detection in the shape parameter of Inverse Gaussian process.

Bayesian Control charts are emerging as the most efficient statistical tools for monitoring manufacturing processes and providing effective control over process variability. The Bayesian approach is particularly suitable for addressing parametric uncertainty in the manufacturing industry. In this study, we determine the monitoring threshold for the shape parameter of the Inverse Gaussian distribution (IGD) and design different exponentially-weighted-moving-average (EWMA) control charts based on different loss functions (LFs). The impact of hyperparameters is investigated on Bayes estimates (BEs) and posterior risks (PRs). The performance measures such as average run length (ARL), standard deviation of run length (SDRL), and median of run length (MRL) are employed to evaluate the suggested approach. The designed Bayesian charts are evaluated for different settings of smoothing constant of the EWMA chart, different sample sizes, and pre-specified false alarm rates. The simulative study demonstrates the effectiveness of the suggested Bayesian method-based EWMA charts as compared to the conventional classical setup-based EWMA charts. The proposed techniques of EWMA charts are highly efficient in detecting shifts in the shape parameter and outperform their classical counterpart in detecting faults quickly. The proposed technique is also applied to real-data case studies from the aerospace manufacturing industry. The quality characteristic of interest was selected as the monthly industrial production index of aircraft from January 1980 to December 2022. The real-data-based findings also validate the conclusions based on the simulative results.

Physics-based reduced order modeling for uncertainty quantification of guided wave propagation using Bayesian optimization

Guided wave propagation (GWP) is commonly employed for the design of SHM systems. However, GWP is sensitive to variations in the material properties, often leading to false alarms. To address this issue, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is employed to improve the reliability of the predictions. Computational structural mechanics is a useful tool for the simulation of GWP. Even so, the application of UQ methods requires numerous solutions, while large-scale, transient GWP simulations increase the computational cost. In this paper, we propose a machine learning (ML)-based reduced order model (ROM), annotated as BO-ML-ROM, to decrease the computational time of the GWP simulation. The ROM is integrated with a Bayesian optimization (BO) framework to adaptively sample the data for the ROM training. The results showed that BO outperforms one-shot sampling methods, both in terms of accuracy and speed. The developed ROM, which is orders of magnitude faster than the original solver, is then applied for forward uncertainty quantification of the GWP in an aluminum plate and a composite panel under varying material properties. The UQ analysis reveals the higher impact of the uncertainties in the wave reflections. Furthermore, to compute the influence of the material properties on the predictions, a sensitivity analysis (SA) is performed using the variance-based Sobol’ indices and the Shapley additive explanations, where it is shown that the uncertainties in the elastic properties have a varying influence across time. The predicted results reveal the efficiency of BO-ML-ROM for the simulation of the GWP and demonstrate its utility for UQ and SA.