Harvest Failure Research Articles

FACTORS AFFECTING INDONESIAN PADDY HARVEST FAILURE: A COMPARISON OF BETA REGRESSION, QUASI-BINOMIAL REGRESSION, AND BETA MIXED MODELS

The Paddy harvest failure rate is one of the key aspects in determining the total number of claims in a crop insurance policy. It is also an important factor indicating the fulfillment of targeted total production. Therefore, we proposed Beta Regression, Quasi Binomial Regression, and Beta Mixed Models which can be used to analyze significant variables affecting paddy harvest failure rates. Model selection and evaluations indicated that the Nested Beta Mixed Model is the best. Previous research has shown four significant fixed effect variables: drought, flood, pests, and disease risks. Pests and other types of risks also affect the variability of loss rate. All variables have positive effects, indicating higher values cause a higher possibility of a higher average harvest failure rate. High variability was shown for province, municipality, and farmers' random effects. Hence, to prevent a more significant loss rate, MoA should consider more intensive and innovative participatory activities in farmer groups to enhance good farming practices, especially for farmers who suffer from certain risks. These activities should also consider the local characteristics of each province or municipality. As for AUTP development and improvement, farmers with lower failure risks could be given a discounted premium to make it more appealing.

The 2023/24 El Niño and the Feasibility of Long-Lead ENSO Forecasting

Abstract Through its atmospheric teleconnections, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shifts and disrupts weather and climate patterns far beyond the equatorial Pacific where it occurs often resulting in catastrophic consequences in many countries of the world. It is also the largest source of seasonal and interannual climate predictability. Despite its huge importance, ENSO forecasting is still not performed operationally at longer leads than about 6 months ahead. At the same time, there is mounting scientific evidence that forecasts are possible even more than a year in advance. Early warning of ENSO events could substantially mitigate some of the most damaging impacts, such as floods, droughts, and harvest failure and help avoid famine, migration, and disease outbreaks. Here, we present forecasts from a statistical ENSO model of the next El Niño predicted to occur in the winter of 2023/24, at lead times between 11 and 17 months ahead of an expected peak in December 2023. We use a statistical unobserved dynamic components model (EDCM) based on subsurface ocean temperatures as well as sea surface temperatures and zonal wind stress. EDCM has been previously validated through hindcasts of the major El Niños since 1970 and through real-time forecasts of the 2015/16 and 2018/19 El Niños. Our statistical framework and results indicate that there is potential for doubling the operational predictive lead time of ENSO to at least 12 months, with additional promise for even earlier anticipation of 19 months. Such longer-lead forecasts could be of high value, because decision-making and management in a number of key socioeconomic sectors could be greatly improved.

International cooperation was key to stabilize wheat prices after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a global wheat price spike and food insecurities in import-dependent countries. We combine an analysis of the global wheat supply network with an agricultural commodity price model to investigate national impaired supplies and the global annual wheat price hike, respectively, for the trade year 2022. Using a scenario analysis, we show that international cooperation manifested in the Black Sea Grain and Solidarity Lanes initiatives and the removal of export restrictions may have mitigated the 2022 price hike by 13 percentage points. In a worst case scenario – characterized by multi-breadbasket harvest failures, escalating export restrictions, and blocked Ukrainian exports – wheat price increases by 90% compared to the 2000–2020 average. Coping strategies – such as food-secure countries dispersing stocks, reducing wheat as feed, or boosting wheat production – are effective at mitigating the price spike in simplified scenarios. Our findings underscore the imperative of coordinated policy responses to avoid global food supply disruptions.

Religious Responses to Agricultural Crises: Exploring the Diverse Patterns in Garut, Indonesia

This study explores the critical role of religious patterns in shaping responses to agricultural crises, specifically focusing on the failure of the strawberry harvest in Barudua Village, Garut, West Java. The research employs a qualitative case study approach, examining three distinct sub-villages, each with unique religious practices: exclusive-protective, participatory, and progressive. Through interviews, observations, and thematic analysis, the study reveals how these religious patterns influence the community's resilience and adaptability in the face of crisis. The findings indicate that while exclusive-protective patterns tend to foster passivity, participatory and progressive patterns encourage community engagement, innovation, and social cohesion. These results suggest that integrating religious perspectives into agricultural crisis management can enhance community resilience and offer sustainable solutions. This research provides practical insights for policymakers and community leaders, empowering them to develop culturally sensitive and effective strategies for managing agricultural challenges.

Analysis of apheresis outcomes in a cohort of Chilean patients treated with autologous stem cell transplantation: A single center real-world experience

Adequate stem cell harvesting is required for autologous hematopoietic transplantation. In deficient mobilizer patients, the collection of stem cells can be challenging because of the impossibility of achieving satisfactory CD34 cell counts with GCSF + - chemotherapy. Plerixafor is a potent and expensive drug that promotes the release of stem cells from the medullary niche to the peripheral blood and allows satisfactory harvests. We performed a retrospective analysis of 370 patients with myeloma and lymphoma harvested at our institution. 99 % of patients achieved satisfactory apheresis using Plerixafor in 45 %. Satisfactory harvests were obtained in patients mobilized with GCSF or plerixafor. In patients who used plerixafor, it was necessary to perform fewer apheresis procedures (P = 0.05). In multivariate analysis, the only factor that predicted the need for plerixafor was the presence of less than 30,000 CD34 / ul on the day of apheresis (OR 0.3. p < 0.001). Since we adopted the plerixafor protocol guided by CD34 counts, the number of patients with harvest failure has decreased. In conclusion, the rational and standardized use of plerixafor favors satisfactory harvest in patients who require autologous transplantation in South-American patients.

Submental Artery Perforator Flap Drained Solely With the Vena Comitans of Facial Artery.

The submental artery perforator flap (SMAPF) is an alternative to reconstruct oral and maxillofacial defects secondary to oral cancers. However, vascular anomalies or surgical damage often lead to vascular crises or harvest failure. Our clinical findings suggest that the vena comitans of the facial artery (cFA) very commonly exist. This study aimed to investigate the reliability of the cFA as a sole venous reflux route for the SMAPF. The patients were from the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Hospital of Stomatology, Jilin University. All patients were treated for oral cancer between January 2016 and September 2022. Seventeen SMAPFs were successfully raised to reconstruct the postoperative defects, of which 7 had cFA as the sole reflux route. The size of the flaps varied from 4.0×3.0cm to 12.0×3.0cm. All flaps survived. Patients were followed from 1 month to 5 years. Satisfactory restoration of contour and functional outcomes were achieved at the recipient sites. The scars were well camouflaged in the submental region. No local or regional recurrence was detected during follow-up. Patients had an overall 2-year survival rate of 100% with no suspected flaps-related recurrence. The cFA as the sole venous reflux route for SMAPF is reliable for flap harvesting and is applicable for immediate defect reconstruction secondary to cancer resection.

Vibration response characteristics of Jujube trees based on finite element method and structure-from-motion

It is an indispensable step to choose optimal vibration parameters in jujube fruits vibration harvesting. Excessive vibration frequency will cause jujube tree damage, otherwise, the separation of fruit and fruit stalk cannot be achieved, resulting in harvesting failure. In our work, finite element method and vibration tests are applied to find optimal vibration parameters. To improve the accuracy of finite element method, a low-cost 3D reconstruction method is proposed to build jujube tree model. Experimental result showed that the phenotypic information of the reconstructed jujube tree and the real jujube tree have a high similarity, and their determination coefficient R2 reach to 0.984. Moreover, the natural frequencies of jujube tree are analyzed by modal analysis, transient analysis is applied to analyze vibration transfer characteristics. The simulation and experimental results show that the optimal vibration frequency range of jujube tree is 25∼30 Hz, the optimal vibration excitation location is on the main trunk and as high as possible close to the secondary branches, which can obtain maximum vibration response for optimum harvesting efficiency. The average determination coefficient is 0.66 between test and simulation results at different frequencies. This study can provide references for accurate 3D modeling of jujube trees, selection of appropriate vibration parameter range and the development of jujube harvesting machinery.

PENYULUHAN PEMBUATAN AMELIORAN SEBAGAI BAHAN PEMBENAH TANAH DI DESA PEMENANG BARAT

Pemenang Barat Village is one of the villages in the North Lombok Region whose land is dominated by sandy soil, has a dry climate and low rainfall. This sandy soil is porous, poor in nutrients and organic matter. This condition causes plant growth and yield to be low and can even cause harvest failure. Through this community service activity, "Instruction on the Making of Ameliorant as a Soil Improvement Material has been carried out in the West Pemenang Village". Activity methods are lecture, discussion, question and answer, demonstration and practice. This extension activity went well, the extension participants were active and enthusiastic in participating in the discussion. The results of this counseling can be concluded that there has been an increase in participants' understanding and skills regarding making ameliorant as a soil improver that can increase soil fertility.

Mitigation and adaptation of local organization to achieve food security: Case of traditional irrigation system in Bali, Indonesia

Climate change has affected the agricultural sector, particularly the food crop cultivated on rice fields. Subak as a local farmers organization is always expected to have important role to to improve rice farming practices and increase its productivity. The changes of rainfall and rain patterns happened in Bali should be anticipated by the subak through the mitigation and adaptation efforts to prevent the failure of harvest, and ensure better production. The aims of this study were to describe subaks activities and its problem, and the adaptation and mitigation efforts for achieving food security. The study was purposively conducted in 14 subaks which obtained irrigation water from the Buleleng River, Bali Province. A total of 140 farmers were selected as samples by using non-proportional sampling technique. Primary data and secondary data were collected using survey, direct observation, and FGD. Data collected were analyzed by a qualitative descriptive method. The results indicate that subaks have some problems, such as water availability, competition of water among the users, and rice field conversion. The efforts of adaptation and mitigation comprise the changes in cropping patterns and planting schedules, borrowing water between subak members, and forming a subaks federation to increase rice productivity and achieve food security programs. The government should provide useful weather information for farmers regarding water availability, make a digital map of forest, regulations, and law enforcement.

Molecular characterization of Rice ragged stunt virus and Rice grassy stunt virus on Rice in Gianyar, Bali, Indonesia

Rice stunt disease is one of the causes of rice harvest failure. It is caused by the infection of Rice ragged stunt virus (RRSV) and Rice grassy stunt virus (RGSV) infection. Information about disease severity and the molecular characteristics of stunt viruses in Indonesia is still limited. Thus, this research aimed to determine the disease severity and the genetic diversity of rice stunt viruses in Gianyar, Bali. The research method consisted of observation of incidence and disease severity in the field and virus detection by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using primers specific for RRSV and RGSV. The observation of the disease incidence and severity were performed in seven districts in Gianyar Regency, Bali, namely Blahbatuh, Gianyar, Payangan, Sukawati, Tampaksiring, Tegallalang, and Ubud. Stunt disease was found in all observation sites. High stunt disease incidence (&gt; 44%) was found in three districts: Ubud, Tampaksiring, and Payangan, while the low disease incidence rate of &lt;10% was found in Blahbatuh and Gianyar Districts. The highest stunt disease severity occurred in Tampaksiring District (60.82%), while the lowest severity occurred in Gianyar District (18.84%). The IR-64 and Ciherang cultivars are vulnerable to rice stunt disease infection. The highest homology of RRSV and RRGV nucleotides was found with Vietnam isolates being &gt;98% and &gt;97%, respectively. The phylogenetic analysis showed that Indonesian isolates of RRSV and RGSV were clustered in the same group as Vietnam isolates.

Agronomical Performances of Gajah Mungkur Mutant Rice Varieties Under Drought Stress

The productivity of the rice plant is commonly influenced by both genotype and environmental factors. One common environmental factor that leads to harvest failure is drought, often caused by low rainfall. Therefore, the development of drought-tolerant varieties should be implemented to obtain optimum productivity under an unfavorable environment. One of the canonical approaches for achieving this is genetic manipulation, such as by gamma radiation-induced mutation. This study aimed to determine the drought tolerance and quantitative characteristics of mutant rice varieties generated from gamma radiation. The methodology used was a split-plot design with two factors, including drought as the first factor consisting of three groups namely control, mid-level, and high-level. The second factor was rice genotypes, which consisted of six genotypes comprising PMG 07/PsJ, PMG 08/ PsJ, and PMG 09/ PsJ (mutant varieties), Gajah Mungkur (parental background), Limboto (drought-tolerant), and IR 20 (drought-susceptible). The data were statistically examined using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and further analyzed with Duncan’s Multiple Range Test (DMRT) with a significance level of 5%. The results showed that high-level drought significantly affected plant height during both the vegetative and mature stages. Among the mutants, PMG 08/PsJ exhibited better vegetative growth under dry conditions, retaining a relatively higher height. Drought also had a negative impact on the number of tillers and productive tillers. The PMG 08/PsJ mutant had a slightly higher number of tillers under drought cultivations. On the other hand, PMG 09/PsJ was found to have a relatively more filled grain number per panicle. Leaf rolling and dryness index showed similar trends in all varieties, while drought treatments imposed a delay on the flowering and harvesting age. Although the results demonstrated no substantial improvement over the parental lines, the selected mutant lines provided several beneficial agronomical features such as maintenance of plant height, tiller number, and shorter life cycles under severe drought. These characteristics could serve as valuable genetic resources for breeding programs focused on developing drought-resistant rice varieties for challenging environments.

Design and experiment on mechanized batch harvesting of Shiitake mushrooms

Shiitake mushroom must be harvested in time or its commercial value will be reduced. At present, manual harvesting is time-consuming and labor-intensive, and the robotic selective harvesting is far from mature and marketable. Based on the analysis of manual harvesting, a mechanized batch-based harvesting method for the stick cultivation of shiitake mushrooms is proposed as an alternative harvest method in the scenario of large-scale factory production. The feasibility of the simplified picking method was verified by a data acquisition system with integrated force sensor and inertial measurement unit, and the picking force and picking action during manual picking were measured. A mechanized harvesting scheme by picking rings with forward forces to the mushroom stalk was proposed, and its finite element analysis concluded that the mushroom could be picked without damaging the mushroom by using a 5/10 size latex tube. A new mushroom Batch Harvesting Picker (BHP) was designed, including a pushing mechanism, a guiding mechanism, and a harvesting mechanism. By analyzing the causes of harvesting failure and mushroom damage, the stick surface profiling unit were improved by multi-body dynamics simulation. The simulation results show that when the preload force of the reset spring of the harvesting mechanism is set to 30 N, the least pressure on the mushroom stick is 8.97 N, and the picking ring working closer along the surface of stick. The experiment of BHP showed that the harvesting success rate is 98.93 %, the harvesting damage rate is 3.31 %, and the average harvesting time of a single mushroom stick is 9.8 s, which improved the harvesting efficiency of single stick by 2.2–6.6 times compared with the manual harvesting process, which proved the feasibility and efficiency of this batch harvesting scheme in large-scale factory production of shiitake mushrooms.

The crop yield of spring wheat under conditions of the Aridized climate

Due to the global warming, massive aridization is observed in the Transbaikal territory, including Buryatia, as a result, agriculture is forced to function under conditions of a strict limit of atmospheric and soil moisture. In spring and early summer, the potential evaporation here is 3-5 times higher than the amount of rainfalls, which leads to crop shortages and to a harvest failure. Thus, it is necessary to use irrigation reclamation for the effective management of agricultural production in this territory. This work researches the manifestation of soil drought in alluvial meadow soil. The study of the effect of various doses of mineral fertilizers and maintenance of soil moisture at the lowest moisture level at 70% LMC and 80% LMC showed that maximum yield and minimum water consumption coefficient are provided by maintaining soil moisture above 80% LMC and fertilization with a doubled dose of nitrogen.

Climate Change Impact Analysis on Food Availability in the Province of Kalimantan Utara, Indonesia

Climate change directly affects crop yields as a measure of food availability by, for example, causing harvest failure. El Niño and La Niña are two weather patterns affecting the climate of Indonesia, a country at low latitudes, and reportedly increasing its vulnerability to food insecurity. This research was designed to analyze climate change impact on food availability in the Province of Kalimantan Utara using secondary data(temperature, rainfall, and agricultural production) as the base data. It employed quantitative descriptive analysis to explain the study results expressed in maps, tables, and graphs and the regression technique to determine climate change impact on food availability. The regression analysis revealed that climate change significantly shaped the availability of rice (0.008) and vegetable commodity (0.000) but posed insignificanteffects on tubers, legumes, and fruits. Apart from climate change, food availability also depends on land management, land suitability, capital, technology, and cultivated plant variety

SEASONAL MIGRATION FROM RURAL AREAS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TOCHOTANAGPUS REGION OF SJHARKHAND STATE

The liberalization period witnessed the increasing crisis in the agriculture and allied sector that supports a large chunk of the population and subsequently, the slow and gradual displacement of the millions of people from their traditional livelihoods result in increasing underemployment and unemployment in rural areas. This scenario has pushed the people to opt for migration for livelihood expansion. Migration is best understood as one of the strategies adopted by individuals, households or communities to enhance their livelihoods because in general migration has a function of reducing vulnerability – effective migration strategies helps people to reduce the risks of seasonality, harvest failure, etc. Present paper analyzes seasonal migration from remote tribal villages of South Chotanagpur in Jharkhand.

Relieving famine. Northern Sweden (Västerbotten) between state, market, and civil society during the 1860s

ABSTRACT In 1867–1868 northern Sweden suffered from a famine that has not gained much scholarly interest. Here we study how this famine was relieved in Västerbotten county. We use unique regional and local administrative sources alongside other contemporary reports. Our results show that the relief quantities coming into Västerbotten county were significant, in proportion to the size of the population, the depth of the harvest failure, and in relation to historical state aid. In addition, we reveal the complex interplay between the state, market, and civil society that, at least on the county level, contributed to a seemingly efficient administration for alleviating the effects of harvest failure. However, our results point to bottlenecks in the administration of relief at the local municipal level, which call for further investigations.

Factors of Failure of the 2022 Rice Harvest for Local Rice Varieties of Banjar Rice

In 2022 farmers experienced rice crop failures caused by certain things that resulted in a decrease in Banjar's local rice supply. The purpose of this study was to determine the factors of rice crop failure experienced by rice farmers which resulted in a decrease in local rice supplies. This research study uses a qualitative method descriptive approach located in Anjir Serapat Muara I Village with data collection techniques through observation, interviews and documentation. The data collection was analyzed using data reduction techniques, data presentation, then Verification. Selanjutnya in testing the validity of data using triangulation and extended observation. The results of the research obtained by researchers that the factors of rice crop failure are caused by OPT, namely Tungro disease which breeds widely due to the rainy season and there is no dry season, This is supported by the condition of the La Nina phenomenon that is occurring in 2022 which has an impact on climate change which has an influence on the increase or spread of Tungro pest attacks. This rice harvest failure was not only experienced by Anjir serapat muara I farmers, but also felt by farmers in other sub-districts around Barito Kuala. This rice harvest failure made the acquisition of rice a little so that farmers suffered losses and local rice supplies became reduced, and caused local rice prices to be expensive.

Optimalisasi Lahan Kering Untuk Budidaya Bibit Tanaman Kenaf Sebagai Bahan Baku Industri Menuju Kebangkitan Ekonomi Kreatif Desa Suradadi Kabupaten Tegal

Agriculture in the Suradadi area, Tegal Regency, is still traditional and a tradition passed down from generations to generations. The agricultural pattern of farming is due to the experience and teachings of his parents. For agricultural production, only food crops, secondary crops and fruit are used. They grow crops when the rainy season arrives with high rainwater discharge. The problem that occurs in Suradadi village is less than optimal management of agricultural land which has an impact on the low economic life of Suradadi village farmers. And the aim of this PKM activity is to cultivate kenaf plants in Suradadi village to revive the economic life of farmers in Suradadi village, Tegal Regency. The partner of this PKM is the Gema Ripah farmer group, Suradadi village, Tegal Regency. The problems faced are the frequent harvest failures experienced by PKM Partners, the results obtained are not commensurate with the costs incurred by farmers, and the risk of losses is greater. So that the rice fields can be optimized by planting plants that can withstand heat or rain, and can be planted in various types of soil. Optimizing dry land can be carried out for cultivating kenaf seeds as a farming business in the Suradadi village farmer group, Tegal Regency. The results achieved during the assistance and training in kenaf cultivation, up to the age of 14 days, the kenaf plants grew very well, while keeping the soil moist to avoid evaporation and the plants wilting and dying.

Assessment of Hydrological Response to Climatic Variables over the Hindu Kush Mountains, South Asia

The impact of climate extremes, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall, can cause harvest failures, flooding, and droughts that ultimately threaten global food security, harming the region’s economy. Fluctuations in streamflow indicate the sensitivity of streamflow responding to extreme precipitation events and other climatic variables (temperature extremes) that play a significant role in its generation. Pakistan is also considered one of the climate change hotspot regions in the world. The devastating impacts have often occurred in recent decades due to an excess or shortage of streamflow, majorly generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). To better understand climate extremes’ impact on streamflow, this study examined climate extremes and streamflow (Q) changes for three decades: 1990–1999, 2000–2009, and 2010–2019. Observed streamflow and meteorological data from nine sub-catchments across all climatic zones of the UIB were analyzed using RGui (R language coding program) and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Climatic variables were estimated, including precipitation extremes, temperature extremes, and potential evapotranspiration. The Mann–Kendal test was applied to the climatic indices, revealing that precipitation increased during the last 30 years, while maximum and minimum temperatures during the summer months decreased in the Karakoram region from 1990 to 2019. The spatiotemporal trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) indicated a more increasing tendency from 1990 to 2019, compared to the consecutive wet days (CWD), which showed a decreasing trend. PLSR was applied to assess the relation between climatic variables (extreme P, T indices, and evapotranspiration). It was found that the dominant climatic variables controlling annual streamflow include the r95p (very wet days) and R25mm (heavy precipitation days), maximum precipitation event amount, CWD, PRCPTOT (annual total precipitation), and RX5 (maximum five-day precipitation). The TXn (Min Tmax) and Tmax mean (average maximum temperature) dominate streamflow variables. Moreover, the impact of evapotranspiration (ET) on variations in streamflow is more pronounced in arid catchments. Precipitation is the predominant factor influencing streamflow generation in the UIB, followed by temperature. From streamflow quantification, it was found that climate-driven annual streamflow decreased during 1999–2019 in comparison to 1990–1999, with an increase in a few catchments like Kalam, which increased by about 3.94% from 2000 to 2010 and 10.30% from 2010 to 2019, and Shigar, which increased by 0.48% from 2000 to 2009 and 37.37% from 2010 to 2019 concerning 1990–1999. These variations were due to changes in these climatic parameters. The PLSR approach enables the identification of linkages between climatic variables and streamflow variability and the prediction of climate-driven floods. This study contributes to an enhanced identification and hydroclimatological trends and projections.

Ozone stress and crop harvesting failure: Evidence from US food production

Farmers react to ozone injury by abandoning crops when the expected revenues cannot compensate for the harvesting costs. This study provides the first empirical evidence of ozone pollution’s impact on the decision to abandon crops. Using a causal inference framework, we find evidence that a one-standard-deviation rise in ozone concentration decreases the harvested ratios of corn and soybeans by 0.133 and 0.151 standard deviations, respectively. Our bootstrap simulation results show that the agricultural production benefits from ozone control would be considerably underestimated for both corn and soybeans without accounting for the saved acreage that should have been abandoned. The re-estimated benefits of agricultural production from ozone control inform policy design regarding air pollution management and highlight the importance of research and development in ozone-tolerance traits. We also discuss the effects of insurance and price regimes on agricultural production by providing evidence that insurance enrollment rates and crop prices are imperative for adaptation to ozone stress, which facilitates insurance design to mitigate the adaptation disincentive.