Factors In Iran Research Articles

Bayesian Spatial Survival Analysis of Duration to Cure among New Smear-Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) Patients in Iran, during 2011-2018.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), and pulmonary TB is the most prevalent form of the disease worldwide. One of the most concrete actions to ensure an effective TB control program is monitoring TB treatment outcomes, particularly duration to cure; but, there is no strong evidence in this respect. Thus, the primary aim of this study was to examine the possible spatial variations of duration to cure and its associated factors in Iran using the Bayesian spatial survival model. All new smear-positive PTB patients have diagnosed from March 2011 to March 2018 were included in the study. Out of 34,744 patients, 27,752 (79.90%) patients cured and 6992 (20.10%) cases were censored. For inferential purposes, the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are applied in a Bayesian framework. According to the Bayesian estimates of the regression parameters in the proposed model, a Bayesian spatial log-logistic model, the variables gender (male vs. female, TR = 1.09), altitude (>750 m vs. ≤750 m, TR = 1.05), bacilli density in initial smear (3+ and 2+ vs. 1–9 Basil & 1+, TR = 1.09 and TR = 1.02, respectively), delayed diagnosis (>3 months vs. <1 month, TR = 1.02), nationality (Iranian vs. other, TR = 1.02), and location (urban vs. rural, TR = 1.02) had a significant influence on prolonging the duration to cure. Indeed, pretreatment weight (TR = 0.99) was substantially associated with shorter duration to cure. In summary, the spatial log-logistic model with convolution prior represented a better performance to analyze the duration to cure of PTB patients. Also, our results provide valuable information on critical determinants of duration to cure. Prolonged duration to cure was observed in provinces with low TB incidence and high average altitude as well. Accordingly, it is essential to pay a special attention to such provinces and monitor them carefully to reduce the duration to cure while maintaining a focus on high-risk provinces in terms of TB prevalence.

Identifying and prioritizing delay factors in Iran’s oil construction projects

Purpose Successful implementation of construction projects is one of the crucial factors for the economic development of every country. The main part of the countries’ capital is allocated to civil and infrastructure projects annually, most of which are accomplished with delay. Construction projects are often criticized for overrunning time and budgets. Analyzing the factors causing delay is essential for omitting them and timely implementation of these projects. Due to the importance of oil projects, this study aims to investigate and analyze the factors causing a delay in Iran’s oil construction projects. Design/methodology/approach In this research, after a broad literature review, using the fuzzy Delphi method, a total of 75 delay factors were identified under 11 major categories of owner, contractor, consultant, equipment, labor, materials, design, contract and contractual relations, laws and regulations, environmental factors, and managerial factors. Then, by using the best-worst method, the factors were prioritized. Findings The results showed that sanction, governmental management systems, weak project management by the contractor, technical and managerial weaknesses of the consultant, financial problems and delay in payment by the owner, low efficiency of the equipment, low productivity of the workforce, changes in laws and regulations, inappropriate organizational structure linking to the project, changes in the design, and changes in the price of materials are the most crucial factors causing a delay in Iran’s oil construction projects. Research limitations/implications These findings are expected to have significant contributions to Iran’s oil construction industry in controlling the time overruns in construction contracts. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is to develop a comprehensive framework in which, causes of delay in Iran’s oil construction projects are addressed and prioritized.

Hope in Iranian mothers of children with cancer: a descriptive correlational study.

This study aims to examine the relationship between the level of hope in mothers who have a child with cancer and its related factors in Iran. A cross-sectional and descriptive correlational design was used in this study. A demographic questionnaire and the Herth Hope Index (HHI) were administered to a sample of 240 mothers who have a child with cancer to assess level of hope. Mothers were also asked to indicate their highest priority hopes such as view of their supportive resources including financial support, psychosocial support, religiosity and spirituality. Data was analysed using descriptive statistics, Spearman's rho, independent sample t test and one-way ANOVA. The mean HHI score was 35.44 (n = 237). There was a positive correlation between HHI total score and spirituality (r = 0.267, P < 0.001), and psychosocial support (r = 0.281, P < 0.001). No significant differences were found between HHI total score and respondents who saw themselves as a religious person and the family financial support. There was a significant difference in HHI total scores for a mother who has a disabled child (M = 32.92, SD = 2.75; t (235) = 2.00, P = 0.046) and mothers of a child who do not have any disability besides their cancer (M = 35.59, SD = 4.91). No significant differences were found in the HHI total score and different group of the child's diagnoses and the mother's age or/and child's age. Mothers who have a child with cancer with better psychosocial and spiritual support showed a higher level of hope. A thorough knowledge of factors associated with hope in mothers caring for children suffering from cancer could provide a means to further advance the support delivered and the available resources given to the parents, especially the mothers.

The relationship between dysentery and climatic parameters in Iran

Climate plays a key role in gastrointestinal diseases by affecting the environmental conditions of disease-transmitting agents through contributing to the quality of water and access to water resources. Moreover, the association between dysentery and climatic factors in Iran as a vulnerable country to climate change has not been clarified yet. The present retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted to investigate the relationship between climatic factors and dysentery in different climate zones of Iran and diverse age groups of men and women using secondary data. The longitudinal data were analyzed using tests of Poisson regression models. The present findings suggested that the average monthly maximum temperature and the number of rainy days are the most significantly correlated with the risk of dysentery in both genders; for instance, increases were observed in the risk of dysentery in women (IRR = 1.35, 95% CI:1.15,1.59, P < 0.001) and men (IRR = 1.18, 95% CI:1.00–1.40, P = 0.042) in the arid-cold climate (Bwk) with an increase in rainfall, and in Women (IRR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.05,1.08, P < 0.001) and men (IRR = 1.05, 95% CI:1.04,1.06, P < 0.001) in the semi-arid cold climate (Bsk) with an increase in the average monthly maximum temperature. Significant correlations were also observed between climate and dysentery in the children and adults aged over 65 years. The results suggest that dysentery is associated with different factors in women and men of different ages. Climatic factors were also found to differently affect the risk of dysentery in different climate zones.

Stillbirth in Iran and associated factors (2014-2016): A population-based study

Background: Under Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP), stillbirth rate in every country should be reduced by 12 or fewer per 1000 total births by 2030. The aims of this study were to determine stillbirth rate at national and subnational levels and to investigate its associated risk factors in Iran. Methods: Using all data from Iranian Maternal and Neonatal Network (IMaN), we calculated stillbirth rate of Iran from 2014-2016. This network registers information of almost all births across the country. The logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for stillbirth. Results: In 2014, still birth rate was 7.40 per 1000 births. In 2015 and 2016, stillbirth rates were 7.22 per 1000 births and 7.63 per 1000 births, respectively. The most important related factors of stillbirth were preterm birth (aOR= 62.53, 95% CI; 60.77-64.34), sexual ambiguity (aOR= 14.51, 95% CI; 12.76-16.50), and post term birth (aOR= 3.31, 95% CI; 2.66-4.13). Conclusion: Under Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP), stillbirth rate in every country should be reduced by 12 or fewer per 1000 total births by 2030. Iran has achieved stillbirth target of ENAP at national level. It is important for the health care system to establish and improve specific and focused policies, interventions, and programs for achieving this target even in the most deprived areas.

Breast cancer risk factors in Iran: a systematic review & meta-analysis.

Breast cancer is known as one of the deadliest forms of cancer, and it is increasing globally. There are a variety of proven and controversial risk factors for this malignancy. Herein, we aimed to undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis focus on the epidemiology of breast cancer risk factors in Iran. We performed a systematic search via PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Persian databases for identifying studies published on breast cancer risk factors up to March 2019. Meta-analyses were done for risk factors reported in more than one study. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a fixed/random-effects models. Thirty-nine studies entered into the meta-analysis. Pooling of ORs showed a significant harmful effect for risk factors including family history (OR: 1.80, 95%CI 1.47-2.12), hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) (OR: 5.48, 95%CI 0.84-1.74), passive smokers (OR: 1.68, 95%CI 1.34-2.03), full-term pregnancy at age 30 (OR: 3.41, 95%CI 1.19-5.63), abortion (OR: 1.84, 95%CI 1.35-2.33), sweets consumption (OR: 1.71, 95%CI 1.32-2.11) and genotype Arg/Arg (crude OR: 1.59, 95%CI 1.07-2.10), whereas a significant protective effect for late menarche (OR: 0.58, 95%CI 0.32-0.83), nulliparity (OR: 0.68, 95%CI 0.39-0.96), 13-24months of breastfeeding (OR: 0.68, 95%CI 0.46-0.90), daily exercise (OR: 0.59, 95%CI 0.44-0.73) and vegetable consumption (crude OR: 0.28, 95%CI 0.10-0.46). This study suggests that factors such as family history, HRT, passive smokers, late full-term pregnancy, abortion, sweets consumption and genotype Arg/Arg might increase risk of breast cancer development, whereas late menarche, nulliparity, 13-24months breastfeeding, daily exercise and vegetable consumption had an inverse association with breast cancer development.

Spatial-temporal analysis of net primary production (NPP) and its relationship with climatic factors in Iran.

Fluctuations of the climate variables have increased in the recent years. These fluctuations are different in each climatic region. Net primary production (NPP) indicating the plant growth and carbon stabilization over period of time is influenced by these fluctuations. Investigation of the variations in the NPP and analysis of its relationship with the climatic and environmental variables can play a key role in determining the effects of fluctuations of climatic variables on the NPP. Therefore, the present study was conducted to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in the NPP and its correlation with precipitation rate and temperature during 2000-2014 based on the annual NPP estimates determined by the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor and precipitation and temperature data of the synoptic stations in eight climate regions in Iran. The slope of variations in the NPP was calculated in these climatic regions, and then, the changes in the NPP trend at two confidence levels of 95 and 99% were investigated based on the pixel-based method using the Mann-Kendall test. The sensitivity of NPP to climatic variables of temperature and precipitation was also estimated by calculating the correlation. The results showed the significant spatial distribution of NPP in the whole region under study indicating a declining trend from north to south and from west to east directions. The results also indicated the nonlinear variations in the temporal distribution of NPP. The annual mean NPP was found to follow the climatic boundaries in the climatic regions except for climate region 2, and region with the higher annual mean precipitation had higher annual mean NPP. Analysis of the trend by the Mann-Kendall method revealed that 3.2% of the pixels in the whole region followed a certain trend. Among the pixels, 70% of them followed a negative trend and the remaining 30% followed a positive trend. The greatest number of pixels with a certain trend was found in the Gulf of Oman coast climate region so that 93% of the pixels had a positive trend. The lowest number of pixels with a certain trend was observed in eastern Alborz foothills so that 87% of the pixels showed a negative trend. Slope variations of the NPP in the whole region varied from - 35 to 46 gC m2 year-1. The eastern plateau had the highest negative slope variations among the climate regions, and the highest positive slope variation of 42% was observed in the highlands climate region. In general, the precipitation rate and temperature showed a mean partial coefficient of 0.22 and 0.02, respectively, and the correlation between the NPP and temperature and precipitation was different in each climatic region. The temperature was negatively correlated with the NPP in four climatic regions with higher annual mean temperatures and in other climatic regions; it had a weak positive correlation. Therefore, the sensitivity of NPP to precipitation and temperature was different in each climatic region.

Multiple sclerosis diagnosis delay and its associated factors among Iranian patients

ObjectiveA long diagnostic delay in multiple sclerosis (MS) reduces the chance of early access to disease modifying therapies with potential to impact on disease trajectory. The aims of this study were to determine the delay in diagnosis of MS and its associated factors in Iran. MethodsOur study was conducted on 536 MS patients who were selected from Multiple sclerosis registry database and neurology clinics in southern part of Iran. Data were collected via a face-to-face interview administered questionnaire. A multiple linear regression model was used to control for the effect of potential confounding factors on the delay of MS diagnosis. ResultsThe mean of diagnostic delay was 7.0 months. Single patients were diagnosed on average 1.33 months later compared with those who were married (P = 0.007). Those who were registered with a family physician reported an average of 1.42 months longer delay in diagnosis than others (P = 0.004). For each year of older age at diagnosis, the delay was 1.04 months longer (P < 0.001). On the other hand, those who had migraine were diagnosed 1.58 months earlier than others (P < 0.001). Participants with a vision problem as the initial symptom were diagnosed 1.48 months earlier than those with sensory symptoms (P < 0.001), and 1.28 months earlier than those with headache/dizziness (P = 0.093). It was also suggested that the diagnostic delay was shortened over the study period (on average 1.06 months per year, P < 0.001). ConclusionEasy access to a neurologist, raising health literacy in the general population, and improving the family physicians’ alertness about MS symptoms can shorten the delay of MS diagnosis.

188P Breast cancer risk factors in Iran: A systematic review & meta-analysis

Breast cancer known as the most lethal malignancy among females and it is increasing globally. There are a variety of proven and controversial risk factors for this malignancy. Herein, we aimed to undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis focuses on the epidemiology of the breast cancer risk factors in Iran.

Dental Caries Status and its Related Factors in Iran: A Meta-Analysis.

Statement of the Problem: Dental caries is a global health issue, which imposes a great deal on individuals and the community.Purpose: The main purpose of this study was to identify the dental caries status and/or DMFT/dmft data and its related factors in Iran.Materials and Method: The search performed in the online databases to identify all literature published up to Oct 2018. The random effects model was applied to pool analysis and verses. Funnel plots and Egger test used to examine publication bias. All analyses were carried out with R software version 3.2.1 and STATA (version 11.1).Results: 69 studies selected as eligible for final analysis in which all subjects were in age range less than 18 years old except 4; so, all results and analyzes were only calculated in this age group. The total rate of dental caries was 72.8% (95%CI, 69.2-76.4%) and the mean of dental caries was 2.33 (95% CI, 2.12–2.54) based on DMFT values and 3.86 (95% CI, 3.49–4.22) based on the dmft values. These rates were almost similar in both sexes. In addition, these trend were higher in rural than urban regions. Subgroup analysis found a direct relationship between DMFT index and age, while the reverse was true for relationship between dmft and age. The mean dental caries were higher in children with low socioeconomic status, low family income, low educated and unemployed parents, crowded families, excessive carbohydrate intake, and less toothbrushes frequency.Conclusion: The present study showed high prevalence and experience of dental caries among children and adolescents (<18 years of age) in Iran. This illustrates ineffective oral health national preventive programs and lack of educational measures. New preventive procedures, practical educational programs, and modern therapeutic methods are needed to improve oral health status.

Proactive agenda setting in creation and approval of national action plan for prevention and control of non-communicable diseases in Iran: The use of multiple streams model

Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) are the largest and fastest growing threat to human health. Iran’s Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MoHME) established the Iranian Non-Communicable Diseases Committee (INCDC) in 2015 to tackle the high burden of NCDs. In line with the WHO’s Global Action Plan, the INCDC developed “The National Action Plan for Prevention and Control of NCDs” and the related risk factors in Iran, 2015–2025”, which was then revised to cover until 2030. In this policy synthesis study, we conducted a content analysis of upstream and other policy documents related to NCDs and relevant risk factors in Iran. We used multiple streams model to illustrate the proactive approach that led to development of the national action plan. While countries are accelerating their efforts to reach SDG 3.4, Iran’s pathway, as a WHO fast track country, will help, we envisage, other countries to scale up their active efforts to move steps forward to tackle the ever- highest burden of NCDs in their own settings.

Cost Analysis of Accidents According to Demographic Factors in Iran

The first cause of death and disability constituting to the burden of disease in Iran has been accident and injury incidents. Young people are more at risk, these accidents have a negative effect on the national gross domestic product (GDP), on the one hand, and they increase the costs of the health system on the other hand. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the costs and epidemiological pattern of accidents. The study variables in the first 8 months of 2016 included from Tehran Province, Iran; age, sex, how to transfer to the hospital, consequences of an accident, the injured area, and costs. Overall, 400 cases were investigated by referring to the patients' files and deriving the intended data. SPSS software used to analyze the data and statistical tests of t-test and ANOVA were applied. Most accidents have happened in summer months of Jun, Jul and Aug. Most of the files (48%) were related to the age group of 16-30. The mean cost was 9024.82 dollar. In total, 39% of the road accidents had occurred by motorcycle and 90.8% of the patients discharged from the hospital. Since about half of the traffic accidents were related to the age of 16 to 30 who were the active population of a community, therefore, any disability or death in these groups could cause an economic burden on the community and increase DALY. Thus, it appears essential to develop proper programs such as education for appropriate driving and strict rules for giving driving license to these ages.

The Prevalence of Internet Addiction and Its Associated Factors Among Iranian Adults

Objectives: The internet is known as an essential part of individuals’ daily life. The present descriptive research aimed to determine the prevalence rate of Internet Addiction (IA) and its related factors in Iran. Methods: In total, 1046 internet users were recruited by a convenience sampling approach. The required data were collected by an online questionnaire, including a sociodemographic data scale and the Persian version of the Internet Addiction test. The obtained data were analyzed using SPSS. Results: The current study findings indicated that the prevalence rate of IA was equal to 57.6%.The highest prevalence rate belonged to the research participants aged ≤35 years (67.5%), followed by females (61.5%), married subjects (66.7%), the holders of MSc and PhD. degrees (65.8%), and those employed in public sectors (68.5%). The highest prevalence of IA was detected among the study participants who spent one hour daily on the internet (94.7%); however, the lowest prevalence of the IA was observed among those who spent &gt;10 hours daily on the internet (16.4%). Moreover, there was no dramatic difference between the internet access source and the IA among the research participants (P˃0.05). There was a significant relationship between all determined variables and the level of IA (P˂0.05). Discussion: The prevalence of IA was increasing in the studied population. Health educators are recommended to emphasize improving society’s awareness of IA. They are also suggested to develop educational preventive measures on increasing media health literacy approaches.

Investigating the Labor and Capital Contributions and their Effective Factors in Iran

Investigating the Labor and Capital Contributions and their Effective Factors in Iran

Stillbirth in Iran and associated factors (2014-2016): A population-based study

Background: Under Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP), stillbirth rate in every country should be reduced by 12 or fewer per 1000 total births by 2030. The aims of this study were to determine stillbirth rate at national and subnational levels and to investigate its associated risk factors in Iran. Methods: Using all data from Iranian Maternal and Neonatal Network (IMaN), we calculated stillbirth rate of Iran from 2014-2016. This network registers information of almost all births across the country. The logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for stillbirth. Results: In 2014, still birth rate was 7.40 per 1000 births. In 2015 and 2016, stillbirth rates were 7.22 per 1000 births and 7.63 per 1000 births, respectively. The most important related factors of stillbirth were preterm birth (aOR= 62.53, 95% CI; 60.77-64.34), sexual ambiguity (aOR= 14.51, 95% CI; 12.76-16.50), and post term birth (aOR= 3.31, 95% CI; 2.66-4.13). Conclusion: Under Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP), stillbirth rate in every country should be reduced by 12 or fewer per 1000 total births by 2030. Iran has achieved stillbirth target of ENAP at national level. It is important for the health care system to establish and improve specific and focused policies, interventions, and programs for achieving this target even in the most deprived areas.

HIV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID) and related factors in Iran: a systematic review, meta-analysis and trend analysis.

In Iran, injecting drug use has been the major route of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. In order to control the HIV epidemic, a harm reduction program was initiated and has been expanded in recent years. The aim of this study was to provide an updated estimate of HIV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Iran, investigate prevalence differences over time and assess prevalence correlates. A comprehensive systematic review was undertaken in the international, regional and national bibliographic databases in November 2018 and extensive contacts with authors were made. For studies conducted before 2005, we used data from a previous published systematic review. All studies conducted in Iran were included. Recruitment settings included anywhere except studies conducted in infectious diseases wards or HIV counseling centers. PWID with any definition utilized in the studies. Thirty-six studies were included, which were conducted in 24 of 31 provinces with a sample size of 22 160 PWID. We included studies that had performed HIV testing and had a confirmed diagnosis of HIV through repeating the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) or Western immunoblot assay (WB). Pooled prevalence of HIV was calculated for the total sample and for different subgroups, by available socio-demographic and behavioral factors. For assessing the trend of HIV prevalence over time, a linear meta-regression model was fitted separately for before 2007 and during 2007 and afterwards. The pooled prevalences of HIV before 2007 and in 2007 and afterwards were 14.3% [95% confidence interval (CI)=9.8-18.9] and 9.7% (95% CI=7.6-11.9), respectively. HIV prevalence increased until 2005-06 and then slowly declined until 2009-10, which was not significant. Prevalence of HIV was significantly higher in PWID above age 25years, and in those with history of imprisonment and history of needle/syringe-sharing. HIV prevalence was higher in men than in women, but the difference was insignificant. The prevalence of HIV among people who inject drugs in Iran decreased after 2006 which could, at least in part, be attributed to the development of extensive harm reduction programs in the country.

Comparison of anthropometric indices as predictors of the risk factors for cardiovascular disease in Iran: The PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study.

This study was conducted to assess the prevalence of central and general obesity and compare nine anthropometric indices as predictors of the risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Iranian adults. A total of 10,520 adults between ages 35 and 70 years old who were referred to the PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study were included in this study. Anthropometric indices, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist to height ratio (WHtR), waist to hip ratio (WHR), conicity index, hip circumference (HC), waist to hip to height ratio (WHHR), body adiposity index, and a body shape index (ABSI), were measured using the standard methods. The risk factors for CVD (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and out of range lipid profiles) were defined by laboratory tests and medical history. The odds ratio of the risk factors based on a unit increase in anthropometric indices was examined by an adjusted logistic model. The mean of all anthropometric indices was higher in women than in men (p<0.01). After adjusting for confounders, the risk of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and hypertriglyceridemia increased with an increase in all anthropometric indices. The highest risk of diabetes mellitus and hypertriglyceridemia was found in higher WHHR. The highest risk of low high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL C) and high low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL C) was found in an increase in the WHR and ABSI, respectively. Our findings emphasize higher levels of general and central obesity in adults in the north of Iran. The WHHR and WHtR seem to be more valuable indices than BMI and WC for predicting distinct risk factors for CVD. However, the WHR was the strongest index for the prediction of high LDL C/HDL C ratio.

Spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of typhoid fever and investigation of their relationship with potential risk factors in Iran, 2012-2017.

Typhoid fever is a global infectious disease which remains a severe health problem in Asia and Africa. In subnational levels of Iran, environmental and socio-economic properties are often so divergent, that can have a major effect on the incidence of typhoid fever. We used the data of MOHME that has reported 2474 cases of typhoid fever from 20th Feb 2012 to 31st Dec 2017 in Iran. First, we ran a spatial autocorrelation analysis to see whether there is any spatial trend in incidence cases and find the high-high clusters of typhoid (at different confidence levels) using Local indicators of spatial association (LISAs). To explore the spatial and temporal patterns of typhoid fever and examine their relationship with climatic and socio-economic variables; we have employed a spatiotemporal zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model in a Bayesian framework. Our results show thirteen High-High clusters and windspeed (RR[95% CrI] =1.39 [1.15-1.69]), public sewerage system (RR[95% CrI] =0.76 [0.63-0.92]), years of schooling (RR[95% CrI] =0.78 [0.65-0.95]), wealth index (RR[95% CrI] =0.59 [0.55-0.63]) and urbanization (RR[95% CrI] =0.6 [0.48-0.76]) as variables that are importantly associated with typhoid fever incidence. Therefore, typhoid fever is spatially clustered with a high incidence in children and adolescents. Windy, poor, rural, and uneducated areas are high-risk regions that can be controlled by proliferating the standard sewerage networks, which eventually leads to safer water supplies.

Statistical functions used for spatial modelling due to assessment of landslide distribution and landscape-interaction factors in Iran

Landslides influence the capacity for safe and sustainable development of mountainous environments. This study explores the spatial distribution of and the interactions between landslides that are mapped using global positioning system (GPS) and extensive field surveys in Mazandaran Province, Iran. Point-pattern assessment is undertaken using several univariate summary statistical functions, including pair correlation, spherical-contact distribution, nearest-neighbor analysis, and O-ring analysis, as well as bivariate summary statistics, and a mark-correlation function. The maximum entropy method was applied to prioritize the factors controlling the incidence of landslides and the landslides susceptibility map. The validation processes were considered for separated 30% data applying the ROC curves, fourfold plot, and Cohen’s kappa index. The results show that pair correlation and O-ring analyses satisfactorily predicted landslides at scales from 1 to 150 ​m. At smaller scales, from 150 to 400 ​m, landslides were randomly distributed. The nearest-neighbor distribution function show that the highest distance to the nearest landslide occurred in the 355 ​m. The spherical-contact distribution revealed that the patterns were random up to a spatial scale of 80 ​m. The bivariate correlation functions revealed that landslides were positively linked to several linear features (including faults, roads, and rivers) at all spatial scales. The mark-correlation function showed that aggregated fields of landslides were positively correlated with measures of land use, lithology, drainage density, plan curvature, and aspect, when the numbers of landslides in the groups were greater than the overall average aggregation. The results of analysis of factor importance have showed that elevation (topography map scale: 1:25,000), distance to roads, and distance to rivers are the most important factors in the occurrence of landslides. The susceptibility model of landslides indicates an excellent accuracy, i.e., the AUC value of landslides was 0.860. The susceptibility map of landslides analyzed has shown that 35% of the area is low susceptible to landslides.

A primary investigation of the relation between the incidence of brucellosis and climatic factors in Iran

Brucella spp. are Gram-negative coccobacilli that may grow in different media and environmental conditions for extended periods of time. The survivals of these bacteria in the environment have an important impact on the epidemiology of brucellosis worldwide. The effect of climate on the incidence of certain zoonotic infectious diseases, (recently referred to as climate-sensitive zoonosis) is now well established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relation between the incidence of brucellosis and climatic parameters in Iran, an important endemic region for brucellosis with diverse climate. The information on the incidence of human brucellosis in different Iranian provinces for 2016 has been provided by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Iran. Annual meteorological data collected between 2015 and 2016 were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological organization (IMO). A regression analysis of the incidence of brucellosis was performed via STATA 14.0 and the heterogeneity among observations was determined via Cochrane's Q-test and I2 statistic. If I2 index was higher than 50%, heterogeneity was considered as considerable. The results of regression analyses revealed a negative significant association between mean ambient air temperature and brucellosis incidence (C = - 0.022, P value = 0.004). Likewise, a positive significant association was found between number of frosty days and brucellosis incidence (C = 0.002, p value = 0.003). Other metrological parameters showed no significant effect on the human brucellosis incidence. Although our results suggest a high degree of temperature sensitivity in regards to the brucellosis incidence in Iran, this study opens up prospects for further investigations regarding environmental conditions and climatic changes influencing the spatial distributions and seasonal/annual cycle of this zoonotic pathogen worldwide.