Geopolitical Factors Research Articles

Renewable energy made in India: navigating geopolitics in achieving sustainability

ABSTRACT The energy sector is the source of around three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions according to IEA, and the focus of SDG 7- Affordable and Clean Energy. Centred around this is this conceptual paper with the objective of first understanding the developments related to the renewable energy (RE) sector, with special reference to India especially in the context of the current geopolitical factors. Next, the paper also aims to analyse the implications of these developments for India and the world. The geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine have led to a setback in the global RE goals as compared to the targets especially in India. As the third largest energy consumer which is dependent on energy imports, India has been trying to meet its energy needs of the present while investing heavily in RE for a sustainable and energy secure future. Consequently, India is emerging as one of the top five RE players contributing majorly to global sustainability and energy security for its future while skilfully managing the current geopolitical crisis and the ensuing challenges.

Adaptive potential of Russian economic growth in the context of decline in foreign direct investment

This study analyses the adaptive potential of Russia’s economic growth in the context of decline in foreign direct investment (hereinafter referred to as FDI). In light of today’s geopolitical environment, marked by increased trade tension and protectionist measures, understanding the impact of FDI on Russia’s gross domestic product (hereinafter referred to as GDP) becomes critical for policy-making and economic planning. The study employs a vector autoregression modeling approach (hereinafter referred to as VAR) to analyse the dynamics of Russia’s GDP and FDI inflows with consideration to various economic and geopolitical factors. Besides, an extensive dataset is used covering the period from 1996 to 2021 which includes relevant macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical events. The VAR model allows to study short- and long-term correlations between variables reflecting dynamic interaction and feedback effects. In addition, impulse response analysis is used to estimate the magnitude and sustainability of economic growth under conditions of economic instability. The results of the study contribute to understanding the adaptative potential of Russia’s economic growth in the context of FDI restrictions from Western countries. The analysis provides insight into the significance of FDI inflows for the Russian GDP with consideration to the impact of various economic and geopolitical factors.

The impact of investor greed and fear on cryptocurrency returns: a Granger causality analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum

PurposeThis study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns.FindingsThe study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term.Practical implicationsDespite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research.Originality/valueThis study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.

The Origin of The Formation of Modern Japanese Nationalism

Nationalism is a complex and profound subject, with each country and region having its own characteristics. As a unique facet of East Asian civilization, modern Japanese nationalism exhibits traits such as homogeneity and independence, a strong spirit of groupism, a pronounced sense of inferiority, and islandism. In modern times, particularly among Japanese reformers facing internal and external challenges, there was a proactive exploration and adaptation of western theories. This fusion, along with the essence of “Japanese spirit”, gave rise to nationalism with distinct Japanese characteristics. Japan’s journey towards developing this unique form of nationalism resulted in its transformation into the first modern nation-state in East Asia society, marking a profound political and social reforms. The study of modern Japanese nationalism holds great significance for the broader understanding of nationalism, shedding light on how unique cultural, historical, and geopolitical factors can shape a nation’s identity and policies.

Rethinking Performance-based Budgeting: The Case of the Russian Healthcare System

Aiming to enhance efficiency, performance, and accountability in the management of the public sector, performance-based budgeting (PBB) has gained prominence worldwide. The present study addresses the challenges of implementing and managing PBB in the Russian public sector, with a particular focus on the Orel region's long-term targeted healthcare programs. Drawing on case study analysis and empirical evidence, the study identifies specific challenges hindering effective PBB implementation, including effectiveness issues, revenue generation concerns, and passive actors with limited knowledge and skills. The study sheds light on the complexities and tensions arising from a top-down approach to PBB implementation and offers insights into prioritizing expenditures amid economic and geopolitical factors in emerging market economies like Russia.

Examining the Relationship Between Geopolitical Events and Currency Market Dynamics

This paper delves into the intricate relationship between geopolitical events and exchange rates, aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding of how geopolitical factors influence the currency dynamics of a country and strategies to mitigate their impact. Geopolitical events, ranging from political tensions and conflicts to trade disputes and diplomatic relations, have profound implications for exchange rate stability and volatility.

RECOVERY IN THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF UKRAINIAN TOURIST SERVICES AT POST-WAR CONDITION

Article highlights several issues of recovery and develop in international tourism after the Covid-19 pandemic in conditions of growth war tension in the world. Considered main economic and geopolitical factors what brakes growth of international tourism up to positions, which loss after 2019. Reviewed importance of reducing the negative impact of rising prices for fossil energy due to the overall dynamics of global economic recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic through the diversification of energy sources and increased investment in renewable energy. Highlighted are several issues of disinformation and vaccine-related fake news as negatively impacting factors on the recovery of the tourism sector due to obstacles to successful vaccination in various regions of the world, particularly in China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The analysis conducted reveals weaknesses in protecting the economies of different countries against global economic and geopolitical challenges, regardless of their level of development.

The evolution of Ukraine-China trade relations in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Following the Russian war, Ukraine's need for allies has grown. This study assesses Ukraine-China trade within the wider context of international relations and analyzes entrepreneurship development in Ukraine, considering current geopolitical factors. Given the growing role of China in the global economy, the formation of relations with the country is also becoming one of the main components of the country’s international policy, which makes research on this component relevant. The research aims to assess the trends in trade between Ukraine and China, as well as to conclude on the existing trends in this component. The main methods used in the study were analysis, abstraction, and forecasting. The study assessed and described the specifics of international trade between China and Ukraine. The study provides statistics on trade relations between the two countries and describes the volume of international trade and the trends and changes associated with the war between Ukraine and Russia. Particular attention is paid to trade in agricultural products and the impact of trends in this sector on the development of entrepreneurship. In addition, the paper describes the potential benefits of future cooperation between Ukraine and China and the difficulties that may arise in the development of relations between the two countries. Based on the analysed information, the paper provides advice for the formation of Ukraine’s state policy in general, and in particular, for ensuring the quality development of enterprises.

Geopolitical aspects of Russian national security

The paper examines the transition of Russian foreign policy from a geopolitical orientation towards the countries of the West towards the East, understood not only as a geographical, but, above all, as a geopolitical factor. The reorientation of Russian foreign policy is an important feature of Russia’s national security.

Systemic Risks of Financial Management in the International Projects: Global Investments and Financial Management as a Component of National Security

"The article attempts to investigate the landscape of today global financial system and instabilities observed in it. Special emphasis is placed on geopolitical factors determining disturbances and risks for financial security of the state as a crucial part of national security. It is shown that, due to rapidly growing action of geopolitics as non-random influence factor, systemic risks in the international projects are acquiring very complex and multifaceted nature, and global investments and financial management are among the most important components of national security."

Influence of resource compensation and complete information on green sustainability of semiconductor supply chains

The semiconductor industry provides technological support for a wide range of industries, including artificial intelligence, communications, consumer electronics, and medical instruments, but it also contributes to high resource consumption and pollution emissions, which are detrimental to global sustainable development. To promote the semiconductor industry's economic stability and sustainability in parallel with ecological and environmental protection, public awareness of sustainability is driving manufacturers to improve resource utilization and achieve green production of their products. To encourage manufacturers to contribute to global sustainability, governments are involved in supply chain decision-making based on resource and compensation policies. Using efficient resource utilization as an entry point, this study aims to explore whether manufacturers can effectively address the risk known as “strangle hold stuck neck” based on advanced resource utilization in their manufacturing processes, and the role of resource compensation versus full information in this context. The study shows that, in the presence of business competition or geopolitical factors, the disclosure of resource utilization levels to upstream technology suppliers by manufacturers with green production advantages increases their exposure to price increases. Whether or not upstream technology suppliers change their technology licensing decisions or have full information, resource efficiency policies can contribute to a stable product supply and more efficient resource utilization. Notably, there are limits to the setting of taxes and subsidies in resource compensation policies, and different scenarios exhibit different limiting functions for subsidies and taxes.

Beyond environmentalism: The geopolitical chess game behind Indonesia’s mineral export bans and renewable energy transition

The increase in human energy consumption and the serious effects of the dominance of fossil energy, especially limited supply and climate change, have an impact on changes in the global geopolitical order. As such, the adaptation carried out by Indonesia became an important step in ensuring national energy security amidst global challenges. This research highlights the urgency of accelerating the energy transition to renewable sources in Indonesia as part of the national strategy. Efforts to accelerate the energy transition are not only a response to global demands, but also as an effort to maintain energy security, environmental sustainability, and are an important geopolitical factor. This study uses mixed research methods, where the author carries out quantitative data processing and then juxtaposes it with qualitative processing and analysis. The analysis was carried out using the concept of resource geopolitics. This study found that abundant renewable resource capacity, downstream efforts by the government, reduced dependence on other countries, and increasingly mature energy transition readiness make Indonesia better prepared to face global geopolitical competition. This study concludes that accelerating the energy transition in Indonesia is not just a response to global demands, but is also a strategic step to increase energy security, disaster resilience and environmental resilience.

Ensuring Nuclear Safety in Ukraine in Conditions of War

The ongoing war in Ukraine has significantly raised concerns about the safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially in the context of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. This precarious situation has revealed substantial weaknesses in the existing global nuclear safety framework, emphasizing the need for sweeping reforms in international law. While the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has played a commendable role in advocating for nuclear safety through various resolutions, missions, and safety principles, the effectiveness of these efforts is compromised by Russia’s non-compliance and its ability to exercise veto power in the UN Security Council. Confronting these challenges requires a diverse and comprehensive approach from the international community. This includes revising international legal structures, conducting in-depth studies on nuclear safety in conflict zones, and considering diplomatic initiatives like establishing safety zones around nuclear facilities. Another possible strategy is the deployment of peacekeeping forces, though geopolitical factors currently limit its viability. Resolving the nuclear safety concerns intensified by the Russia-Ukrainian war demands robust legal and political actions, coupled with innovative solutions and global cooperation. Immediate and focused attention is crucial to avert any further escalation that risks a nuclear incident, posing dire threats not only to Ukraine but to the entire international community.

NAVIGATING THE COMMODITY MARKET: AN OVERVIEW FOR INVESTORS AND TRADERS

The paper provides an in-depth overview of commodity markets, covering traded goods, key stakeholders, financial instruments such as swaps, options, and futures. It underscores the importance of risk management, touching upon pricing, operational, and geopolitical factors, as well as the role of commodities in portfolio diversification. Additionally, it explores forthcoming trends in commodity trading, notably sustainability, and underscores the significance of education and risk awareness in making well-informed decisions. KEYWORD: Commodity Trading, Investors and Traders, trading strategies, portfolio diversification, commodity exchanges.

Seeking care across the US-Mexico border: The experiences of Latinx and Indigenous Mexican caregivers of children with asthma or respiratory distress

BackgroundMany Latinx and Indigenous Mexican populations in the United States Southwest live in unincorporated communities in the US-Mexico borderlands called colonias. These environmental justice communities often lack basic infrastructure, including healthcare services, prompting many to seek services across the border. However, due to geopolitical factors more vulnerable caregivers are limited to utilize healthcare services in the US. This paper reports the experiences and healthcare decision-making of caregivers living in colonias in the US-Mexico border region who care for children with respiratory health conditions. MethodsThis study was carried out from September to December 2020. Focus groups and interviews were conducted with Latinx and Indigenous Mexican caregivers of children with asthma or respiratory distress. Qualitative interviews elicited caregivers' perspectives on the environmental factors affecting children's chronic health conditions and use of healthcare services. The analysis employed the concept of structure vulnerability to theorize geography as a structural determinant of health for caregivers faced with making healthcare decisions for their suffering from respiratory health conditions. A survey was administered to collect basic sociodemographic information. ResultsA total of 36 caregivers participated in the study. Structural factors including unincorporated community status and government inaction intersected with social determinants of health to prompt caregivers to cross the US-Mexico border to access healthcare services in Mexico for their children. Yet, more vulnerable caregivers (i.e., those without documentation status in the US) and their children, accessing healthcare services in the US was not an option limiting caregivers' ability to meet their children's healthcare needs. In such cases, geography acts as a structural determinant of health. ConclusionThis study shows the importance of geography in health. Rural unincorporated colonias located in the borderlands are precariously located and lack basic critical infrastructure including healthcare access. Within such places, historically and socially marginalized populations become invisible, are subject to the health effects of environmental hazards, and are limited depending on their positionality and thus vulnerability to healthcare services.

CHINA’S TRADE RELATIONS WITH UKRAINE

Purpose. The purpose of the article is the study of trade relations between China and Ukraine, the analysis of the volume of bilateral trade and the product structure between trading partners, as well as the outline of challenges and opportunities for the development of future trade cooperation. Methodology of research. The article uses the method of systematic literature analysis to collect, compare and analyze relevant literary materials, including data on trade and scientific research of the two countries in recent years, for a deeper understanding of the process of development of bilateral trade relations and their structure between China and Ukraine. At the same time, the method of theoretical generalization was used to understand the challenges and opportunities that exist in trade relations between countries, the abstract and logical method – to develop proposals for solving problems and promoting cooperation; graphic method – for visual presentation of research results. Findings. Through the analysis of the development process of trade relations, the situation of trade products, the challenges faced and the prospect of the future, this paper draws the following research results: trade relations develop rapidly, and the bilateral trade volume continues to grow; trade relations face challenges such as trade barriers, geopolitical factors and political uncertainties; the cooperation between the two sides has opportunities in various fields and at various levels, which can promote economic growth and international competitiveness. Originality. Trade relations between China and Ukraine have been comprehensively and in detail analyzed, focusing on achieving bilateral mutually beneficial cooperation and strategies for overcoming challenges; proposals were developed regarding future cooperation and the practical significance of its prospects. Practical value. The main provisions of the study contain useful reference information for government officials (developed proposals for strategic planning and trade cooperation), business structures (analysis of the market situation and opportunities for trade cooperation can be used to adjust business strategy and expand the market) and academic researchers (research methods and analytical base can be used as reference materials for a deeper study of trade relations between countries). Key words: belt and Road Initiative, China-Ukraine relations, export, import, trade barriers, trade cooperation, trade relations.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the exchange rate of the Polish zloty: A fallacy of monetary autonomy?

Abstract We use the Twitter application programming interface to construct a novel indicator capturing the varying perceptions of geopolitical risk related to the war in Ukraine. We show that the Twitter variable is a statistically significant determinant of the EUR/PLN exchange rate following the invasion. We estimate that the war in Ukraine was responsible for an increase in the EUR/PLN exchange rate of about 5.0% in the first 2 weeks following its breakout and that the weakening of PLN contributed to an increase of headline inflation in Poland by about 0.33 percentage points. Our findings suggest that monetary policy autonomy can be substantially constrained due to conflicts in nearby countries. Therefore, they provide an argument for Poland in seeking Eurozone membership as a way to contain the impact of geopolitical factors on exchange rate volatility, which is likely to remain at play in the longer run.

NATIONAL IDENTITY AND INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT AS FACTORS OF ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY

Purpose. Study of the impact of national identity and economic innovativeness as factors of the country’s national and international security on international economic relations; defining the main foundations of national identity, which should be taken into account when developing state policy and forming a national geostrategy, as well as clarifying the relationship between national interests and economic growth based on innovation. Methodology of research. The following methods of scientific analysis were used to implement the identified goals and tasks of the research: historical, systemic, structural-functional and value-normative. The historical method made it possible to trace the nature and peculiarities of the formation of the national idea, as well as to determine the prospects for its development in the period of global transformations. The system method made it possible to comprehensively examine the national identity, to identify its main elements and connections. The structural-functional method helped to reveal the role of the functional unity of society united by the worldview and value concepts of the national idea, as well as to characterize the importance of innovative activity and technological development of industrially developed countries. The value-normative method helped reveal the relationship between national values and their impact on economic security and the course of international economic relations. Findings. The impact of national identity and economic innovativeness on international economic relations is determined, their role in ensuring national security and the formation of state policy is established. The analysis of the impact of globalization processes on the nature and content of the country’s national interests is carried out, the role of the geopolitical factor in this context is determined, and the problem of forming a modern Ukrainian geostrategy in the context of the struggle for the realization of national interests and ensuring the country’s national security is considered. It is substantiated that in the modern world, innovations become a determining factor in the dynamic development, transformation and competitiveness of socio-economic systems in the global space. Originality. The influence of national identity and economic innovativeness as factors of the country’s economic security on international economic relations was investigated on an interdisciplinary basis at the intersection of such scientific disciplines as political science, economics, history, cultural studies and the theory of international relations; some aspects of Ukraine’s economic development strategy are defined, emphasizing the importance of international cooperation, integration processes, and national collective strength for solving future post-war challenges. Practical value. Theoretical provisions, conclusions and recommendations are important for the scientific justification of the optimal mechanism for the implementation of the national economic strategy, taking into account the national identity and economic innovativeness in modern social and political conditions, as well as the possibility of applied application of these results in the educational process. Key words: national identity, innovation, innovative activity, national idea, geopolitics, economic security, economic nationalism, international economic relations.

The historical aspect of the transformation of the International Union of Journalists

The scientific article is a study on the history of the creation of the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ). The article presents an analysis of the history of the creation and development of the IFJ. The authors pay special attention to the reasons and prerequisites underlying the emergence of the International Federation of Journalists, as well as expand the data on the creation of the IFJ. The study draws attention to the circumstances that led to the establishment of the IFJ in the post-war period. Special attention is paid to the influence of geopolitical factors on the formation and development of the organization. The consideration of the reasons for the split of the MOJ includes differentiated approaches and strategies adopted by various participating countries, in particular, in the context of the professional activities of journalists. The data on the current state of affairs of the Russian Union of Journalists as part of the International Federation of Journalists are presented. The research methods used include historical analysis: the study of historical documents, archival materials, protocols of congresses related to the creation and development of the IFJ. A content analysis of the texts of articles, statements and reports related to organizations was carried out in order to identify key topics, approaches and dynamics in their activities. The novelty of this study lies in the fact that there are very few such materials in the scientific literature devoted to the history of journalism in Russia, and they mainly concerned the regions of Russia and the development of regional journalism. The main conclusion of this study is the understanding that currently non-governmental international organizations formed on the principles of professionalism are changing and becoming similar to political organizations, which in turn can lead to a split in these organizations and the termination of their existence. After Russia launched a special military operation in February 2022, the unions of journalists of Finland, Norway, Denmark and Iceland announced their intention to leave IFJ due to the presence of the national Union of Journalists of the Russian Federation in it. In February 2023, despite the fact that the organization claims that it is not connected with politics, but is exclusively engaged in protecting the rights of journalists, the IFJ "froze" the membership of the Russian Federation in the organization. It will be possible to return to the issue of Russia's return to work as part of the International Federation of Journalists only in 2026, if necessary.

A conceptual framework for data-driven sustainable finance in green energy transition

As the world grapples with the urgent need for sustainable development, the transition towards green energy stands as a critical imperative. Financing this transition poses significant challenges, requiring innovative approaches that align financial objectives with environmental sustainability goals. This review presents a conceptual framework for leveraging data-driven techniques in sustainable finance to facilitate the transition towards green energy. The proposed framework integrates principles of sustainable finance with advanced data analytics to enhance decision-making processes across the financial ecosystem. At its core, the framework emphasizes the importance of harnessing vast datasets related to energy production, consumption, environmental impact, and financial performance. By leveraging machine learning algorithms and predictive modeling techniques, financial stakeholders can gain deeper insights into the risks and opportunities associated with green energy investments. Key components of the framework include data collection and aggregation, risk assessment, impact measurement, and investment optimization. Data sources range from traditional financial indicators to environmental metrics, social impact assessments, and geopolitical factors. Through comprehensive data analysis, financial institutions can assess the long-term viability and sustainability of green energy projects, while also evaluating potential social and environmental impacts. Risk assessment methodologies within the framework consider both financial risks, such as market volatility and regulatory uncertainty, and non-financial risks, such as climate change impacts and community resilience. By integrating these factors into risk models, investors can make more informed decisions that mitigate potential losses and maximize returns. Furthermore, impact measurement tools enable stakeholders to quantify the environmental and social benefits of green energy investments. By tracking metrics such as carbon emissions reduction, energy efficiency improvements, and job creation, investors can assess the contribution of their portfolios towards broader sustainability objectives. Finally, the framework incorporates investment optimization strategies that align financial goals with environmental objectives. Through portfolio diversification, asset allocation, and innovative financial instruments such as green bonds and impact investing funds, financial institutions can allocate capital more efficiently towards green energy projects. The conceptual framework presented herein offers a systematic approach to integrating data-driven methodologies into sustainable finance practices. By leveraging advanced analytics and comprehensive datasets, financial stakeholders can drive the transition towards green energy while simultaneously achieving financial returns and positive environmental outcomes.