Changing Face Research Articles

Climate Change Responses of High-Elevation Polylepis Forests

The high mountain forests on Earth are characterized by sharp environmental heterogeneity, high species endemism, and unique phenotypic adaptations. Yet, global warming is jeopardizing this ecosystem as no other as some forests may have nowhere to go beyond the mountain’s summits. One of the most human-endangered high-elevation ecosystems is the Polylepis forest. Despite its vulnerability, forecasting climate reactions in this distinctive high mountain forest type remains a formidable challenge. Therefore, in this study, we modeled climate change responses of high-elevation allopatric Polylepis sericea and P. quadrijuga (Rosaceae) in the northern Andes. The analysis took into account VIF-prioritized bioclimatic variables for near-to-present and future (2081–2100 MPI-ESM1-2-HR) conditions. Model selection was carried out following the AUC scores of 12 MaxEnt and six machine learning algorithms. Predictive power reached 0.97 for MaxEnt’s model fc.H_rm.1 (H-1). Results indicate a moderate vulnerability of P. sericea, with a 29% loss of area in the trailing edge, due to climate change for the period 2081–2100. On the other hand, P. quadrijuga is likely to experience even larger distribution losses, up to 99%, for the same period. The findings of this study suggest that P. quadrijuga, as compared to P. sericea, exhibits a restricted ability to maintain the corresponding habitat requirements in the face of climatic change. Higher niche specialization of P. quadrijuga in the environmentally heterogeneous Eastern Cordillera contrasts with the more generalist nature of P. sericea in the topographically less complex Central Cordillera. In addition to climate change, this trend may be exacerbated by the detrimental effects of agriculture, mining, and an expanding rural population, which represent significant human-driven pressures yet to be modeled in the northern Andean highlands. Yet, based on previous studies, the historical population dynamics during the past glacial cycles suggests that range shifts could play a more significant role at deeper time scales than previously forecasted in the species’ reaction to climate change. Additionally, Polylepis forests may be able to endure at the current locations via local adaptation and plasticity, major drivers of the phenotypic variation in long-lived trees, counteracting the vulnerability scenario under a niche conservatism hypothesis. Ultimately, the modeling procedure employed in this study provides insights into the potential effects of climate change on Polylepis forests 70 years from now. Oncoming studies may consider alternative responses inherent to the gene pool of the species and the interaction with edaphic and biotic agents. We advocate for the application of comparable estimations in other high-elevation tree communities found at the tree line.

Water supply in artificial troughs: a strategy to mitigate the impacts of climate change in the Maya forest

Objective: To verify the functionality of drinking troughs based on fauna record. Design/Methodology/Approach: Most of the approximately 70 artificial drinking troughs were installed inside the core zones of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve (CBR). The remaining troughs were installed in communities and left under the protection and supervision of beekeepers. A camera-trap station was associated with each of the drinking troughs installed. Results: Ninety-one wildlife species that drink water from the artificial troughs have been identified, including 30 mammals, 53 birds, 5 reptiles, and three amphibians. Jaguars, tapirs, and other endangered species are some of the most frequent visitors to these sites, especially during the dry season. Study Limitations/Implications: The use of artificial water troughs is an adequate alternative to guarantee water availability in the Calakmul region. The high diversity of species that constantly visit the drinking troughs during the dry season makes evident the functionality of the water supply strategy with artificial drinking troughs. Findings/Conclusions: The drinking troughs can be a tool for various objectives in the region. It arose from the need to respond to emergency climatological events (i.e., droughts), but it has been adapted to the regional needs and other activities. It has been considered a successful management strategy in the face of climate change.

Effect of hydrogel on survival and growth of Grevillea robusta seedlings under semi-arid field condition

Water scarcity limits the survival and growth of planted-out seedlings in Ethiopia’s semi-arid regions. Hydrogel, recently introduced in Ethiopia, is a super-absorbent polymer to reduce water stress. This study investigated its effect on the early survival and growth of Grevillea robusta seedlings in semi-arid areas. Relevant soil characteristics were analyzed. Four hydrogel levels (control, 3, 5, and 7 g/plant) were applied to the bottom of planting holes in a randomized complete block design with three replicates. Survival, Height, and Root Collar Diameter were measured at 6 and 14 months after planting. One-way ANOVA assessed hydrogel effects. No significant positive effects of hydrogel on survival or early growth compared to the control (0 g/plant) were observed in the sandy-loam soil. These findings suggest limited benefit under the study’s specific conditions. Further research is crucial to explore the potential of hydrogels, considering broader ranges of application rates and methods, tree species, and environmental conditions. This knowledge may support forest restoration efforts in the face of severe land degradation, climate change, and variability in Ethiopia.

Harnessing eDNA metabarcoding to investigate fish community composition and its seasonal changes in the Oslo fjord

In the face of global ecosystem changes driven by anthropogenic activities, effective biomonitoring strategies are crucial for mitigating impacts on vulnerable aquatic habitats. Time series analysis underscores a great significance in understanding the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems, especially amidst climate change disrupting established seasonal patterns. Focusing on Norway's Oslo fjord, our research utilises eDNA-based monitoring for temporal analysis of aquatic biodiversity during a one year period, with bi-monthly sampling along a transect. To increase the robustness of the study, a taxonomic assignment comparing BLAST+ and SINTAX approaches was done. Utilising MiFish and Elas02 primer sets, our study detected 63 unique fish species, including several commercially important species. Our findings reveal a substantial increase in read abundance during specific migratory cycles, highlighting the efficacy of eDNA metabarcoding for fish composition characterization. Seasonal dynamics for certain species exhibit clear patterns, emphasising the method's utility in unravelling ecological complexities. eDNA metabarcoding emerges as a cost-effective tool with considerable potential for fish community monitoring for conservation purposes in dynamic marine environments like the Oslo fjord, contributing valuable insights for informed management strategies.

Accuracy of Artificial Intelligence in Predicting Facial Changes Post-Orthognathic Surgery: A Comprehensive Scoping Review.

Accurate prediction of facial soft tissue changes post-orthognathic surgery is crucial for treatment planning and patient communication. Current models pose limitations due to the complexity of facial biomechanics and individual variances. Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as an important tool in many disciplines, including the dental field. The aim of this scoping review is to assess the accuracy of AI in predicting facial changes post-orthognathic surgery in comparison to traditional models. Explore the strengths and limitations of the current AI models. Following PRISMA-DTA guidelines, a comprehensive search was conducted manually and through Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases was conducted, focusing on studies that applied AI models with various machine learning and deep learning algorithms for post-surgical outcome prediction. Selection criteria were based on the PICO format, emphasizing studies that compared AI-predicted outcomes with actual post-surgical results. Literature was searched until January 31, 2024. The initial search result yielded 1579 records. After screening and assessment for eligibility, seven studies met the inclusion criteria, with publication dates ranging from 2009 to 2023. Several AI algorithms were evaluated on different orthognathic surgical procedures, revealing the high predictive accuracy of AI models across various facial regions. AI demonstrates significant potential for enhancing the precision of facial outcome predictions following orthognathic surgery. However, despite the promising results, limitations such as small sample sizes and a lack of external validation were noted. Further research with larger, more diverse datasets and standardized validation methods is essential for optimizing AI's clinical utility. Key words:Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Deep Learning (DL), Orthognathic Surgery, Facial Soft-tissue Prediction, Predictive Accuracy, Orthodontics.

The role of neutral and adaptive evolutionary processes on patterns of genetic diversity across small cave-dwelling populations of Icelandic Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus).

Understanding the adaptability of small populations in the face of environmental change is a central problem in evolutionary biology. Solving this problem is challenging because neutral evolutionary processes that operate on historical and contemporary timescales can override the effects of selection in small populations. We assessed the effects of isolation by colonization (IBC), isolation by dispersal limitation (IBDL) as reflected by a pattern of isolation by distance (IBD), and isolation by adaptation (IBA) and the roles of genetic drift and gene flow on patterns of genetic differentiation among 19 cave-dwelling populations of Icelandic Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus). We detected evidence of IBC based on the genetic affinity of nearby cave populations and the genetic relationships between the cave populations and the presumed ancestral population in the lake. A pattern of IBD was evident regardless of whether high-level genetic structuring (IBC) was taken into account. Genetic signatures of bottlenecks and lower genetic diversity in smaller populations indicate the effect of drift. Estimates of gene flow and fish movement suggest that gene flow is limited to nearby populations. In contrast, we found little evidence of IBA as patterns of local ecological and phenotypic variation showed little association with genetic differentiation among populations. Thus, patterns of genetic variation in these small populations likely reflect localized gene flow and genetic drift superimposed onto a larger-scale structure that is largely a result of colonization history. Our simultaneous assessment of the effects of neutral and adaptive processes in a tractable and replicated system has yielded novel insights into the evolution of small populations on both historical and contemporary timescales and over a smaller spatial scale than is typically studied.

(The Act of) God’s Not Dead: Reforming the Act of God Defense in the Face of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Natural phenomena like floods, droughts, and blizzards have a long history of causing damage. But these natural phenomena are now more frequent, intense, and therefore, foreseeable because of anthropogenic, or human-caused, climate change. Owing in part to the greater foreseeability of natural phenomena like weather, scholars believe the act of God defense—which excepts actors from liability when an unforeseeable and irresistible natural phenomenon is the proximate cause of damage—may be dead. Other scholars go further and argue the act of God defense should be dead, as corporate defendants can use it to evade liability even when their acts causally contribute to climate change. Despite the strength of these scholars’ arguments, those highlighting and even advocating for the demise of the act of God defense overlook the possibility that eliminating the defense will unfairly expose everyday people to liability. This Comment thus addresses scholars’ valid concerns with the act of God defense in light of climate change, examines arguments for why the defense should be excised from the law, and then argues that keeping but modifying the defense is the best way to address criticisms without unjustly harming everyday people.

Ageing, microbes and health.

The human gut microbiome is a modifier of the risk for many non-communicable diseases throughout the lifespan. In ageing, the effect of the microbiome appears to be more pronounced because of the lower physiological reserve. Microbial metabolites and other bioactive products act upon some of the key physiological processes involved in the Hallmarks of Ageing. Dietary interventions that delay age-related change in the microbiome have also led to delayed onset of ageing-related health loss, and improved levels of cognitive function, inflammatory status and frailty. Cross-sectional analysis of thousands of gut microbiome datasets from around the world has identified key taxa that are depleted during accelerated health loss, and other taxa that become more abundant, but these signatures differ in some geographical regions. The key challenges for research in this area are to experimentally prove that particular species or strains directly contribute to health-related ageing outcomes, and to develop practical ways of retaining or re-administering them on a population basis. The promotion of a health-associated gut microbiome in ageing mirrors the challenge of maintaining planetary microbial ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic effects and climate change. Lessons learned from acting at the individual level can inform microbiome-targeting strategies for achieving Sustainable Development Goals at a global level.

Do I perceive that we as a community can persist, adapt flexibly, and positively transform? The relationship between collective transilience and community-based adaptation

Climate change is happening and has negative impacts on communities. To adapt to climate change risks, people need to take action to protect, not only themselves, but also their community. We study whether collective transilience predicts community-based adaptation, such as joining a community initiative to protect the community from climate change risks. Collective transilience reflects the extent to which people perceive they can persist, adapt flexibly, and positively transform as a community in the face of climate change. Two studies (in the United States and the Netherlands) showed that, as expected, higher collective transilience is associated with increased engagement in different examples of community-based adaptation, even when controlling for individual transilience (i.e., the perceived capacity to persist, adapt flexibly, and positively transform in the face of climate change as an individual). Notably, collective transilience was the only significant predictor of individual adaptation behaviours, corroborating the relevance of examining transilience at the collective level to promote widespread adaptation. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Anti-crisis design for operational management of the restaurant business in Ukrain

The object of this research is the impact of the crisis caused by military actions in Ukraine on the restaurant business. The study aims to examine the adaptation strategies that restaurants use for survival and development in the face of sudden economic changes and increasing uncertainty. The problems addressed in the study include responding to the loss of customers, rising food prices, decreasing cash flows, and a shortage of qualified workers. The main findings of the study showed that restaurants that successfully adapt implement comprehensive changes: from digitalizing ordering and delivery processes to revising menus and optimizing resource use. These steps not only reduce costs but also improve operational efficiency, which is crucial for maintaining customer loyalty and attracting new customers. Specifically, restaurants that invested in digitalization (e. g., electronic menus, online ordering, and inventory management systems) reported a 30–40 % increase in sales compared to those that did not implement such changes. Restaurants that implemented strategies for staff retention and cost optimization reduced staff turnover by 25 % and increased productivity by 20 %. The results are explained by the implementation of innovative approaches and strategic rethinking of business models, which allow quick responses to changing market conditions and consumer needs. Effective use of digital technologies and optimization of internal processes have become key success factors. The data obtained have significant theoretical and practical value, as they can be used to develop recommendations aimed at improving the resilience and adaptability of the hospitality industry in crisis conditions. These results help understand how managers can use strategic planning to optimize business processes and ensure enterprise stability. The importance of the research is also highlighted by identifying future research directions that can help the restaurant business more effectively adapt to changing market conditions and global crises.

Investigating urban resilience in case of climate change: A case study of region 12 of Tehran

Given the critical importance of urban resilience in the face of climate change, this paper aims to assess the urban resilience of District 12 in Tehran. District 12 was chosen for its high pollution levels, and the research methodology employed is analytical-descriptive. Data collection relies on library sources and documents, and for analysis, descriptive-inferential statistics including one-sample T-Test and Likert scale are utilized. The statistical population comprises urban planning and meteorological experts. To gauge resilience levels, five variables were identified, each encompassing six components tailored to the region's conditions. The primary objective is to pinpoint components exhibiting poor resilience in response to climate change. Findings indicate a stronger economic dimension of resilience contrasted with a weaker physical dimension, thus suggesting that Region 12 lacks resilience to climate change. The paper offers a comprehensive overview of disasters and provides recommendations for enhancing urban resilience. Studies on climate resilience can prove valuable for urban planners in revising and updating existing plans in the future.

경영학 교육에서 문제중심학습의 적용 사례: 노사관계론

In a society facing unpredictable changes, demand for individuals has shifted from emphasizing past individual excellence to the ability to apply and adapt one's skills to current and future changes. Flexible mindsets and problem-solving abilities, along with the capacity to collaborate with others to resolve diverse issues arising from change, are now essential qualities sought in individuals. A new approach to education is required to cultivate talent that can thrive in the face of societal change. Traditional educational methods, which have been teacher-centric and focused on rote memorization, have led to passive attitudes among students and a lack of analytical and applicative thinking skills. To nurture competitive talents, there is a need to move away from conventional teacher-centric education and embrace learner-centric self-directed learning (Lee, 2004). This entails encouraging students to accumulate knowledge and information through voluntary efforts to foster intellectual and character development. This paper examines the effectiveness of applying problem-based learning in the field of management, a discipline that integrates theory and practice. It specifically explores how utilizing self-directed learning, in which students autonomously identify and resolve labor management issues occurring in real organizational settings, can yield positive outcomes.

Estimation of SOC in Lithium-Iron-Phosphate Batteries Using an Adaptive Sliding Mode Observer with Simplified Hysteresis Model during Electric Vehicle Duty Cycles

This paper develops a model for lithium-ion batteries under dynamic stress testing (DST) and federal urban driving schedule (FUDS) conditions that incorporates associated hysteresis characteristics of 18650-format lithium iron-phosphate batteries. Additionally, it introduces the adaptive sliding mode observer algorithm (ASMO) to achieve robust and swiftly accurate estimation of the state of charge (SOC) of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries during electric vehicle duty cycles. The established simplified hysteresis model in this paper significantly enhances the fitting accuracy during charging and discharging processes, compensating for voltage deviations induced by hysteresis characteristics. The SOC estimation, even in the face of model parameter changes under complex working conditions during electric vehicle duty cycles, maintains high robustness by capitalizing on the easy convergence and parameter insensitivity of ASMO. Lastly, experiments conducted under different temperatures and FUDS and DST conditions validate that the SOC estimation of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, based on the adaptive sliding-mode observer and the simplified hysteresis model, exhibits enhanced robustness and faster convergence under complex working conditions and temperature variations during electric vehicle duty cycles.

Divergent responses of subtropical evergreen and deciduous forest carbon cycles to the summer 2022 drought

Ongoing shifts in climate, especially extreme drought, is posing considerable threats to the forest carbon uptake worldwide. In China, summer 2022 was the warmest and driest since the beginning of meteorological measurements. This study synthesized the tower-based carbon fluxes and climate data from two subtropical evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems to investigate the effects of such summer drought. Interestingly, the net ecosystem production (NEP = −NEE) only exhibited a slight decrease at the deciduous forest while it even enhanced at the evergreen forest during the summer 2022 drought. Further analysis revealed that although reductions in gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R e) were found at both sites, larger decrease in R e than GPP at the evergreen forest led to stronger NEP compared to the previous year. However, the NEP of two forest ecosystems sharply reduced in the following 2023, which can be ascribed to the legacy effects of the summer 2022 drought. The results of multiple linear regression revealed that soil water content (SWC) was recognized as the primary driver of GPP and R e, and downwelling shortwave radiation (R g) regulated the variability of NEP during the summer 2022. Across these forest carbon fluxes including GPP, R e and NEP, the deciduous forest exhibited larger resistance, whereas the evergreen forest showed stronger resilience. All analyses emphasized the diverse adaptive strategies among vegetation types, which acted an important role in assessing ecosystem carbon sequestration in face of future climate change.

Coral Larvae Journey Far and Wide in the Western Indian Ocean

Researchers mapped coral reef connectivity across the Seychelles archipelago to inform conservation efforts in the face of climate change.

Heat Stress in Indian Mustard (Brassica juncea L.): A Critical Review of Impacts and Adaptation Strategies

Indian mustard, a member of the Brassicaceae family, is a cool-season crop cultivated extensively in various agro-ecological conditions, contributing significantly to vegetable oilseed production. However, being a thermosensitive and C3 plant [1], Indian mustard is highly susceptible to high-temperature stress, particularly during critical developmental stages [2]. High temperatures disrupt physiological, morphological, and biochemical mechanisms essential for plant growth and development. From altered chlorophyll content and osmotic water potential to impaired photosynthesis and reduced seed oil accumulation, heat stress detrimentally affects various aspects of Indian mustard physiology. This comprehensive review examines the impacts of heat stress on Indian mustard, a significant oilseed crop, and explores adaptation strategies to mitigate its adverse effects. Additionally, heat stress during reproductive stages leads to flower abortion, reduced fertility, and poor seed development, significantly impacting yield potential. To cope with heat stress, plant response mechanisms involve intricate signaling pathways, leading to cellular readjustments at transcriptome, epigenome, proteome, and metabolome levels. Breeding approaches, including conventional techniques and advanced molecular tools like CRISPR/Cas-based genome editing, offer promising avenues for developing heat-tolerant cultivars. Integration of multi-omics approaches aids in identifying stress-responsive genes and metabolic pathways crucial for adaptation. Agronomic strategies, such as nutrient management and microbial inoculation, play vital roles in mitigating heat stress effects and enhancing plant resilience. Collaborative efforts and interdisciplinary research are essential to deepen our understanding of heat stress responses and develop sustainable solutions to ensure oilseed crop productivity and food security in the face of climate change. This review underscores the urgency of addressing heat stress challenges in Indian mustard cultivation and highlights the need for concerted efforts to develop effective adaptation strategies for sustainable agriculture.

Exploring farmer choices in Southern Togo: Utilizing a strategy game to understand decision-making in agricultural practices

CONTEXTAgriculture plays a vital role in African countries, driving economic growth, employment, and non-agricultural sector improvements. However, persistent food insecurity and poverty among smallholder families raise concerns. Land fragmentation compounds these issues, limiting agricultural productivity and pushing farmers towards off-farm activities, despite Africa's potential agricultural markets. OBJECTIVEThe study's focus is Donomadé, a remote village in southern Togo. This study pursues a dual objective. Firstly, it investigates how household characteristics, including family size and resource availability, influence farmers' resource management decisions. Secondly, the research employs serious games to comprehend farmers' livelihood strategy choices within constrained real-world-like conditions. METHODSThe iterative and participatory Companion Modelling (ComMod) approach was utilized for the co-design and co-development of a serious game. This involved close collaboration with a local research team from the University of Lomé, a local NGO, and Donomadé village farmers. Various farming systems were characterized, and collective insights into Donomadé's agricultural dynamics were gathered through surveys, interviews, and workshops. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSRegardless of their in-game roles, farmers prioritize fulfilling basic family needs, such as food security and education instead of investing in agriculture. The study underscores the significance of household composition and resource availability when designing technology interventions or support mechanisms for farmers. Aligning interventions with farmers' overarching goals and challenges can enhance technology adoption. Furthermore, addressing food security remains crucial for sustainable development, as it not only improves human welfare and alleviates hunger but also forms the foundation for comprehensive solutions in the face of climate change, resource constraints, and population growth. SIGNIFICANCEThis research highlights that heavy investment in agriculture is not the priority for many farmers in southern Togo, despite it being their main source of sustenance and income. Addressing immediate family needs, especially food security, education, and housing, takes precedence over long-term agricultural investments. Given the persistent challenge of food security amidst global uncertainties, addressing these priorities is paramount to stimulate more significant interest in agricultural investment.

Importance of Dark Septate Endophytes in Agriculture in the Face of Climate Change.

Climate change is a notable challenge for agriculture as it affects crop productivity and yield. Increases in droughts, salinity, and soil degradation are some of the major consequences of climate change. The use of microorganisms has emerged as an alternative to mitigate the effects of climate change. Among these microorganisms, dark septate endophytes (DSEs) have garnered increasing attention in recent years. Dark septate endophytes have shown a capacity for mitigating and reducing the harmful effects of climate change in agriculture, such as salinity, drought, and the reduced nutrient availability in the soil. Various studies show that their association with plants helps to reduce the harmful effects of abiotic stresses and increases the nutrient availability, enabling the plants to thrive under adverse conditions. In this study, the effect of DSEs and the underlying mechanisms that help plants to develop a higher tolerance to climate change were reviewed.

Generative AI tools can enhance climate literacy but must be checked for biases and inaccuracies

In the face of climate change, climate literacy is becoming increasingly important. With wide access to generative AI tools, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, we explore the potential of AI platforms for ordinary citizens asking climate literacy questions. Here, we focus on a global scale and collect responses from ChatGPT (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on climate change-related hazard prompts over multiple iterations by utilizing the OpenAI’s API and comparing the results with credible hazard risk indices. We find a general sense of agreement in comparisons and consistency in ChatGPT over the iterations. GPT-4 displayed fewer errors than GPT-3.5. Generative AI tools may be used in climate literacy, a timely topic of importance, but must be scrutinized for potential biases and inaccuracies moving forward and considered in a social context. Future work should identify and disseminate best practices for optimal use across various generative AI tools.

A comprehensive review of physiological and phytochemical adaptations in German chamomile (Matricaria chamomilla L.) in response to abiotic stress and factors

In the face of contemporary climate change, crops are grappling with stress, leading to reduced production. Understanding the plant's response to environmental stressors is crucial for enhancing its adaptability and optimizing the production of bioactive compounds with therapeutic and industrial significance. Matricaria chamomilla L., commonly known as chamomile, has a rich history of use in traditional medicine owing to its numerous medical benefits. The phytochemistry and physiology of chamomile can be strongly influenced by abiotic factors such as temperature, water availability, salinity, light exposure and nutritional imbalances. These stressors may lead to reduced growth, altered secondary metabolite composition and compromised medicinal properties. The review provides a thorough description of how chamomile responds to abiotic stresses, including heat, salt, salinity and drought. Gaining insights into the effects of abiotic stressors on chamomile is essential for refining cultivation techniques and enhancing the overall quality of herbal products derived from chamomile. Drawing on a compilation of previous research, this review addresses diverse facets that capture the attention of both farmers and researchers. Furthermore, insights gained from this exploration are pivotal for enhancing the quality of chamomile-based herbal products in the face of changing environmental conditions.