Extreme Natural Events Research Articles

The Cost of Regime Survival: Political Instability, Underdevelopment, and (Un)natural Disasters in Haiti Before the 2010 Earthquake

This article critically examines the underlying political and structural conditions that lead to Haiti’s underdevelopment and the vulnerability of the country to natural disasters. Using the scholarship of Percy Hintzen and Michel-Rolph Trouillot, the article argues that disjunctures in the post-revolutionary governance of Haiti created conditions of precarity, vulnerability, and preempted possibilities for development. Those disjunctures were exacerbated under the Duvaliers and continue to be part of the fabric of Haiti. The explanation rests in the policies and practices of powerful domestic and foreign actors with vested interests in maintaining conditions of underdevelopment. This explains the failure of the county to effectively respond to extreme natural events such as earthquakes and hurricanes, thereby transforming them into pervasive natural disasters. The calamities that the world noticed on January 12, 2010 were simply an epiphenomenon of those deeply underlying conditions.

Conceptualising Flooding Systems Globally and Preferred Adaptation Strategies Locally under Climate Change

Climate induced natural disasters and extreme events are escalating with the increased variability of climatic parameters due to climate change. This study assesses the flood adaptation strategies that are applicable at the community level in two Terai districts of Nepal. This research aimed to analyse existing and preferred future flood adaptation strategies in a flood prone West Rapti River (WRR) Basin of Nepal, and a social survey of 240 households (HHs) and focus group discussions (FGDs). The specific objectives were to identify flood adaptation strategies based on people’s perception. Flood inundation maps are generated for four scenarios based on return periods: Scenario I; Scenario II; Scenario III; and Scenario IV. Peoples’ choice of flood mitigation strategies mainly depends on the current needs of the people and their knowledge of harm. Current needs govern current choices while the basis of future choice is generally made on the degree of the impact or perceived risk of the hazard. This can be clearly seen from the ranking made by the people for Scenarios I and IV. “Household level preparation /management” was ranked first for Scenario I while in Scenario IV “Watershed management” was ranked highest. “Watershed management” was felt to be an important strategy, as it was second ranked even in Scenarios II and III. People may have realised that the mounting flood risk is increasing with time and that such risk can be reduced only through catchment management. When the risk is considered as of low level, people try first to adapt to it at the personal and household level. However, when the risk level increases, people look for alternatives or higher levels of adaptation. The perceptions of people in the study were found to be in agreement with these findings: as the flood risk increases from Scenario I to Scenario IV, the movement in choice of strategies changed accordingly. It can be concluded that when people are well-informed, they will do long term planning and formulate appropriate strategies. This research provides an overall framework for deriving potential mitigation and adaptation strategies to flood for Nepal in particular and other developing countries in general.

Impact of Extreme Weather on Healthcare Utilization by People with HIV in Metropolitan Miami.

Extreme weather events (EWE) are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, leaving coastal regions exposed to higher risks. South Florida has the highest HIV infection rate in the United States, and disruptions in clinic utilization due to extreme weather conditions could affect adherence to treatment and increase community transmission. The objective of this study was to identify the association between EWE and HIV-clinic attendance rates at a large academic medical system serving the Miami-Dade communities. The following methods were utilized: (1) Extreme heat index (EHI) and extreme precipitation (EP) were identified using daily observations from 1990–2019 that were collected at the Miami International Airport weather station located 3.6 miles from the studied HIV clinics. Data on hurricanes, coastal storms and flooding were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storms Database (NOAA) for Miami-Dade County. (2) An all-HIV clinic registry identified scheduled daily visits during the study period (hurricane seasons from 2017–2019). (3) Daily weather data were linked to the all-HIV clinic registry, where patients’ ‘no-show’ status was the variable of interest. (4) A time-stratified, case crossover model was used to estimate the relative risk of no-show on days with a high heat index, precipitation, and/or an extreme natural event. A total of 26,444 scheduled visits were analyzed during the 383-day study period. A steady increase in the relative risk of ‘no-show’ was observed in successive categories, with a 14% increase observed on days when the heat index was extreme compared to days with a relatively low EHI, 13% on days with EP compared to days with no EP, and 10% higher on days with a reported extreme weather event compared to days without such incident. This study represents a novel approach to improving local understanding of the impacts of EWE on the HIV-population’s utilization of healthcare, particularly when the frequency and intensity of EWE is expected to increase and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. More studies are needed to understand the impact of EWE on routine outpatient settings.

FLASH FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN ARID REGION: A CASE STUDY URBAN BANI WASIL VILLAGE, SOHAG GOVERNORATE

Flash floods are serious phenomenon that attacks and troubles people in many areas’ under-mountain region, so the society should deal with these extreme natural events. This article is showing an example of flash flood modeling to protect the urban bani wasil village from the flash flood risk, so obstacle dam with channel have been used to flash flood mitigation purpose. A design flood wave that used, is for recommence period of 100 years, which estimate by HEC-HMS to be 456,000 m3 total runoff volume. EPA’s SWMM software was used for numerical modeling, which includes flood mitigation calculation. Additionally, the cost for dam with channel construction was estimated as early stage for the project.

Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

The Productive Landscape in the Desert Margin for the Sustainable Development of Rural Settlements: An Innovative Greenbelt for Maranjab Desert in Iran

About two billion rural individuals depend on agricultural systems associated with a high amount of risk and low levels of yield in the drylands of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Human activities, climate change and natural extreme events are the most important drivers of desertification. This phenomenon has occurred in many regions of Iran, particularly in the villages in the periphery of the central desert of Iran, and has made living in the oases so difficult that the number of abandoned villages is increasing every year. Land abandonment and land-use change increase the risk of desertification. This study aims to respond to the research questions: (i) does the planning of green infrastructures on the desert margin affect the distribution and balance of the population? (ii) how should the green belt be designed to have the greatest impact on counteracting desertification?, and (iii) does the design of productive landscape provide the solution? Through a wide-ranging and comprehensive approach, this study develops different scenarios for designing a new form of green belt in order to sustainably manage the issues of environmental protection, agricultural tradition preservation and desertification counteraction. This study proposes a new-traditional greenbelt including small low-cost and low-tech projects adapted to rural scale.

Improved Markov‐chain‐based ultra‐short‐term PV forecasting method for enhancing power system resilience

The awareness capability of output power for renewable resources is essential for enhancing the resilience of power systems. Photovoltaic (PV) forecasting technology is an essential technology for increasing the operation efficiency and controllable resources for power systems after extreme natural events. Conventional Markov chain (MC) methods often ignore the time characteristics and the actual distribution of the PV output power sequence when making PV forecasts. This article proposes improved MC methods of equal quantity and clustering-based division methods. The methods can consider the interval distributions of the PV output power time series and select an hour as the time interval. As a sequence, the predicted power at the next moment can be closer to the expectation of the output power distributions. Such a method is combined with a similar day algorithm to calculate the forecast result. Case studies were conducted with one-year operation data from a 25-MW PV station. The results indicate that the proposed methods can effectively improve the accuracy of prediction results compared with traditional methods.

The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Dar es Salaam: A Pilot Study on Critical Infrastructure, Sustainable Urban Development and Livelihoods

Inner-city transportation looms large in big cities in the so-called Global South due to rapid population and urban growth. To tackle this challenge, a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system was implemented in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) in 2016. This paper reports on the results of a pilot study on the impacts of the BRT on city development and livelihoods in Dar. Our pilot study, which is part of the collaborative research project LIPSINDAR (Linking Partners for a Sustainable and Inclusive Dar es Salaam), was not designed to provide a comprehensive insight into the problems of urban planning, infrastructure modification and their impact on urban livelihoods. Rather, using the example of Dar es Salaam, the study served as an entry point to highlight challenges and future research demands in the context of urban insecurities and risks in large cities of the Global South. In particular, our study investigated the BRT as an element of critical infrastructure in Dar es Salaam and probed into its impact on residents’ livelihoods, focusing on the influence of service disruptions on everyday routines, and on different stakeholders’ views on the functionality of the BRT. Elaborating on this topic, interviews, street vendor surveys and mappings were used as methods to describe the processes. To examine the results more closely, the outcome was divided into groups of different fields of activity, namely Traffic Management, Local Residents, City Administration, Basic Provision Services and Street Vendors. In summary, the pilot study confirms that the implementation of the BRT system has, in general, served to improve urban livelihoods. Reducing commuting times and enhancing access to basic services found positive results. There is, however, still potential for improvement: the bus network, in particular, needs to be expanded and the vulnerability to natural extreme events, especially flooding, needs to be addressed.

A regression model for extreme events and the presence of bimodality with application to energy generation data

The application of the theory of extreme values has been growing due to increasing interest in extreme natural events. Many articles on extreme values in data modelling consider unimodal data. This work introduces an appropriate regression for extreme values to detect the presence of bimodality by means of systematic components of two parameters of the odd log-logistic log-normal distribution. The global influence is addressed to verify the model robustness and to find possible influential points. Quantile residuals are proposed to detect distribution deficiencies and outliers in the new regression. A real dataset from the electricity generation area is analysed, namely the Santo Antônio Hydroelectric Plant in the state of Rondônia (Brazil), to illustrate the potential of the new regression. The main results indicate that the proposed regression can identify changes in the means and variability of the power generation between extreme events, that is, between the months of June and December.

Selling planet Earth: re-purposing geoscience communications

Abstract Earth scientists have a critical role to play in communicating to the public and policy makers what we know about present and future geo-environmental threats and challenges, such as climate change, extreme natural events, resource conflicts and the energy transition. However, whilst geoscientists are being encouraged – and, increasingly, trained – to ‘go public’ with our science, it is less clear to what extent our current geo-communications are effectively addressing the long-term planetary concerns that confront society. In this paper we argue that scientists are the interface between the research organizations that produce knowledge and the wider public who could use that knowledge, and in that regard are akin to marketers in the business world. Drawing from the dominant paradigms that shape business marketing, we re-consider the prevailing models of science communication and their consequent sense of purpose. We identify three dominant approaches of marketing-led science communication: ‘make-and-sell’; ‘sense-and-respond’; and ‘guide-and-co-create’. We judge the first two to be incompatible with delivering long-term sustainability, in contrast to the emergent guide-and-co-create mode – purpose-driven, interdisciplinary, participatory, and reflexive – which we contend is best placed to tackle long-term geo-environmental concerns through having a clear wellbeing-focused objective whilst co-creating the path to achieving it. We conclude with the contention that adopting a guide-and-co-create approach to science communications will require not only re-thinking of communication practice within universities but also radical institutional regime change towards universities becoming purpose-driven organizations.

Knowledge, Attitude and Practices of Nutrition Workers on Climate Change in Laguna, Batangas and Cavite Provinces, Philippines

Climate change and malnutrition are two global phenomena that affect millions of population groups. The Philippines is considered one of the most vulnerable countries for extreme natural events and at the same time has a high prevalence of underweight (19.0%) and stunting (28.8%) in 2019 among under five children. The nutritionally vulnerable groups are children, pregnant and lactating women, and elderly. These groups are also greatly affected by climate change-related events then the malnutrition situation is exacerbated. The local nutrition workers are the frontline workers who plan, implement, and monitor nutrition programs. Mainstreaming climate change in the local nutrition planning processes will be facilitated if nutrition workers are knowledgeable. This study aimed to determine the current knowledge, attitudes and practices of nutrition workers and perceptions on how to mainstream climate change in the nutrition sector’s local planning system. A survey was conducted among local nutrition workers. Ninety-five percent of nutrition workers were highly knowledgeable, 86% were with high level of attitudes and 50% were exhibiting moderate level of practices related to climate change. The gaps can be narrowed by capacity building and possibly this can lead to mainstreaming climate change in the local nutrition planning process.

Influence of atmospheric parameters on human mortality data at different geographical levels

Human mortality data are often modeled using a demographic approach as a function of time. This approach does not present an adequate fit model for the number of deaths with great variability. For this reason, additional information (social, economic and environmental) is required for complementing and improving demographic modelling. This article evaluated the association between human mortality data (segregated by age and sex) with meteorological and air pollutant covariates at three geographical levels: country, macro-climate regions and county. The modelling was based on a generalized linear modelling framework and takes into account the common characteristic of overdispersion in human mortality data through the application of negative binomial distribution. The proposed approach improved the dynamic behavior of the Farrington-like model (basic demographic model) and took into account the extreme meteorological and natural air pollution events. Notably, the proposed modelling worked well in cases where the amount of data was scarce.

Hybrid simulation to support interdependence modeling of a multimodal transportation network

The inland waterways in the United States (U.S.) transport approximately 20% of coal, 22% of petroleum products, and 60% of farm exports making these waterways a significant contributor to the U.S. multimodal transportation system. In this study, data of extreme natural events affecting the U.S. inland waterways are collected and used to predict possible occurrences of such events using a spatio-temporal statistical model. A simulation tool incorporating this model is developed to investigate the impact of waterway disruptions on the interconnected multimodal transportation systems. A case study on the lower Mississippi River and the McClellan–Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System along with the related highways is provided to illustrate the use of the simulation tool for operation simulation and interdependence modeling of the multimodal transportation network. This tool provides a flexible means for quickly evaluating the performance of such Interdependent Critical Infrastructures (ICIs) and assisting in decision making.

Extreme Natural Events Mitigation: An Analysis of the National Disaster Funds in Latin America

This paper reviews, compares, and analyzes the legal and institutional framework of Latin American government insurance systems for disaster risk. Data and information are obtained through an intense examination of disasters database, the scientific literature and legal framework of administrative and operational procedures, and mainly sources of financial funds related to disaster risk management. The results demonstrate that all countries, with the exception of Ecuador and Chile, legally establish some form of fund by their own legislation and regulation, as a total or partial form of financing the management of natural disasters, particularly those classified as post-disaster recuperation and reconstruction practices. North and Central American countries have more complex and well-structured funds, presumably based on their history of natural disasters and high social vulnerability. The funds are composed of initial values defined by law, annual contributions of general budgets, donations, and the financial gains of resources deposited into bank accounts. The paper concludes that the unavailability of required resources in an emergency situation has led Latin American countries to choose disaster funds as a primary disaster risk management financing strategy. However, the uncertainty of natural disaster occurrence is one of the main obstacles to the use of public financial resources in prevention and preparedness strategies and actions, increasing even more with the inclusion of climate change uncertainties.

Morphodynamic research challenges for braided river environments: Lessons from the iconic case of New Zealand

AbstractPressures on braided river systems in New Zealand are increasing due to anthropogenic stresses such as demand for irrigation water, braidplain conversion to farmland and invasive vegetation, as well as extreme natural events associated with earthquakes and climate change. These pressures create issues around preserving braided river physical environments and associated ecosystems, and managing hazards such as floods, aggradation and erosion. A need for more robust understanding and quantification of braided river morphodynamic processes underpins many of these issues. Here, we present eight morphodynamic research challenges to service this need. The first four research challenges relate to managing aggradation‐related flooding hazards; the last four address issues stem largely from recent dairy expansion, which has created huge pressure to take land and irrigation water from the alp‐fed braided rivers and to alter flow regimes at their mouths. Hāpua, the freshwater lagoons found where most braided rivers meet the coast, show complex morphodynamic behaviour in response to the interplay of river and coastal processes, and their special ecosystems are sensitive to river flow and sediment load changes. We discuss how physical laboratory experiments and novel numerical modelling can help to understand the morphological processes braided rivers undergo, and we show how those research advances could inform planning and legal decisions to regulate land rights and irrigation water allocation on New Zealand's braidplains. We illustrate these environmental and engineering issues and research challenges with examples from the Kowhai, Waiho, Waiau, Rangitata and Hurunui Rivers. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Testing the precautionary argument after the Lucky Dragon incident

PurposeThis paper uses a historical case study, the controversy over the possibility of climatic extremes caused by hydrogen bomb tests on Pacific Ocean atolls during the 1950s, to show how, in a context of few scientific data and high uncertainty, political affiliations and public concerns shaped two types of argumentation, the “energy” and the “precautionary” arguments.Design/methodology/approachSystematic analysis of publications 1954–1956: scientific and semiscientific articles, publications of C.-N. Martin and contemporary newspaper articles, especially from the Asia–Pacific region.FindingsFirst, epistemological and scientific reasoning about the likelihood of extreme natural events aligned to political convictions and pressure. Second, a geographical and social distribution of arguments: the relativizing “energy argument” prevailed in English-language scientific journals, while the “precautionary argument” dominated in popular journals and newspapers published worldwide. Third, while the “energy argument” attained general scientific consensus within two years, it lost out in the long run. The proponents of the “precautionary argument” raised relevant research questions that, though first rejected in the 1950s, later exposed the fallacies of the “energy argument” (shown for the case of the climatologist William W. Kellogg).Originality/valueIn contrast to the existing secondary literature, this paper presents a balanced view of the weaknesses and strengths of two lines of arguments in the 1950s. Further, this historical study sheds light on how once-discarded scientific theories may ultimately be reconsidered in a completely different political and scientific context, thus justifying the original precautionary argument.

What can gross alpha/beta activities tell about 210Po and 210Pb in the atmosphere?

210Po and 210Pb represent the most abundant part of atmospheric aerosol long-lived natural radioactivity. Moreover, 210Pb-210Po monitoring in the atmosphere can be of interest for tracking extreme natural events that can enhance the level of alpha/beta radioactivity in air. In this paper, we question the possibility to use routine gross alpha/beta measurements in order to monitor 210Po, 210Pb and 210Po/210Pb ratio in the atmosphere. Based on joint gross alpha/beta measurement and 210Pb-210Po specific determination on 16 atmosphere samples, we show that (i) gross beta activity systematically overestimates 210Pb activity due to the presence of interfering beta emitters and (ii) gross alpha activity mostly reflects 210Po activity even if an underestimation is always observed due to alpha particle attenuation in the sample. In order to determine 210Po/210Pb ratio, we discuss the advantages of using gross alpha activity time variation compared to specific 210Po measurements. Finally, the gross alpha/beta ratio appear to be a good proxy of the 210Po/210Pb ratio when large-scale variations are to be monitored. We report a first reference level for the activity level of airborne 210Po in France of 13 ± 6 μBq/m3.

Application of new HEC-RAS version 5 for 1D hydrodynamic flood modeling with special reference through geospatial techniques: a case of River Purna at Navsari, Gujarat, India

Floods are among the extreme natural events which result in catastrophic damage to properties and adversely effects communities. To curb and manage the effects of such events, the decision-makers and disaster management authorities require dependable data in terms of flood depth, discharge, magnitude, and special datasets. The low lying areas of Navsari city was inundated in the floods of 2002 and 2003. This study aims to use the latest version of HEC-RAS for 1D hydrodynamic flood modelling of Purna river in Navasari city, Gujarat, India, with special reference to geospatial techniques. This study is aimed to demonstrate the geospatial analyzing capabilities of HEC-RAS v5. For the purpose of flood modeling, the river data such as bank lines, flow path lines, cross-section cut lines are extracted from Cartosat-1 DEM (Digital Elevation Model). Steady flow analysis is carried out for the simulation of a 1D hydrodynamic model. The outcome obtained from the model is in the form of water depth, which can be observed in the geospatial HEC-RAS mapper window. The flood depth maps for the 2002 and 2004 flood events are generated, which indicate that the low lying areas of Navsari city near Jalalpore and Viraval are susceptible to flooding when the discharge in the river exceeds 8836 m3/s. The accuracy of the model is calculated by comparing the simulated data with the observed data for the above-mentioned flood events. The results obtained from the 1D models are promising and accurate.

Climate Change and Social Perception: A Case Study in Southern Italy

The consequences of climate change can involve various ambits and be very severe. For this reason, the social perception of climate change is a fundamental issue since it can influence the decisions of the policymakers, by encouraging or discouraging political, economic and social actions. In this paper, a sample of 300 interviews, collected through a standardized questionnaire and carried out among two municipalities located in southern Italy, was exploited to investigate the perception of climate change. Specific issues, regarding perceptions about climate change, concerns about its impacts, level of information, behavior and actions, exposure to extreme natural events and trust, were addressed to give answers to the research questions: (i) Is climate change perceived by the population? (ii) What is the degree of the community resilience to extreme natural events and climate change? As the main findings, this survey highlighted that the spatio-temporal dimension affects population perception, suggesting that some issues, such as correct behavior towards the geosphere, the sustainability of anthropization processes, community resilience and disaster risk reduction policies, can be very central and useful to mitigate the effects of climate change in population and society. Moreover, climate change perception varies in relation to contextual factors, including media communication, socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, knowledge and education, economic and institutional factors, personal values and, finally, psychological factors and experience.

Social media data and housing recovery following extreme natural hazards

Identifying initiatives that influence the decision-making process of individuals in the aftermath of extreme natural events is a critical task in post-disaster recovery research. Due to the diversity of disaster-induced physical and psychosocial damage, as well as the complexity of human behavior, a comprehensive understanding of contributing factors requires a collective effort. The growth of social media platforms with millions of users provides researchers with an exceptional opportunity to conceptualize spatial patterns and communal behaviors. This longitudinal study proposes a multistep machine learning algorithm to understand such recovery decisions using social media data. Two publicly available databases, New York City tax lot data and 109 million geotagged tweets from the period October 2012–October 2014 were used to explore residents’ recovery decisions in the two years following Hurricane Sandy. The results reveal that communities with more tweets about social interactions and fewer tweets related to infrastructure and assets were more likely to rebuild rather than relocate.