Extreme Assumptions Research Articles

INTERBANK LINKAGES AND CONTAGION RISK IN THE PORTUGUESE BANKING SYSTEM

Interbank money markets can be a channel through which problems in one institution can spread to the remaining ones. We characterize the Portuguese overnight interbank money market between 1999 and 2009 and analyze its inherent potential for contagion, based on bilateral interbank exposures. We conclude that: (i) the Portuguese overnight interbank money market has a multiple money center structure; (ii) although unlikely, the failure of one institution can have contagion effects, pushing others into failure; (iii) however, even under the most extreme assumptions, banks that fail by contagion represent less than 10% of the total banking systems assets.

An Empirical Estimate of the Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19 from the First Italian Outbreak

Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been spreading globally for months, yet the infection fatality ratio of the disease is still uncertain. This is partly because of inconsistencies in testing and death reporting standards across countries. Our purpose is to provide accurate estimates which do not rely on testing and death count data directly but only use population level statistics. Methods: We collected demographic and death records data from the Italian Institute of Statistics. We focus on the area in Italy that experienced the initial outbreak of COVID-19 and estimated a Bayesian model fitting age-stratified mortality data from 2020 and previous years. We also assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to alternative assumptions on the proportion of population infected. Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1·29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0·89-2·01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0·05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-0·19) and a substantially higher 4·25% (CrI 3·01-6·39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0·2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0·5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old. Funding Statement: Harvard Business School and Economics Department, NBER, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance. Declaration of Interests: GR and MP declare no competing interests.

How extreme can unit discharge become in steep Norwegian catchments?

Abstract This study presents results of observations and analysis of the flood event in Utvik on 24 July 2017. Observations during and after the event, hydraulic simulations and hydrological modelling along with meteorological observations, are used to estimate the peak discharge of the flood. Although both observations and hydraulic simulations of flood extremes are uncertain, even the most conservative assumptions lead to discharge estimates higher than 160 m3/s at culmination of the flood from the 25 km2-large catchment. The most extreme assumptions indicate it may have been up to 400 m3/s, but there is also strong evidence for the discharge at culmination being between 200 and 250 m3/s. Observations disclosed that the majority of water came from about 50% of the catchment area giving unit discharges up to 18 to 22 m3/s,km2. If the entire catchment contributed it would be from 9 to 11 m3/s,km2. This is significantly higher than previously documented unit discharges in Norway and in the range of the highest observed peak unit discharges in southern Europe. The precipitation causing this event is estimated to be three to five times higher than a 200-year precipitation taken from the intensity–duration–frequency curves for the studied region.

Incidence of assault in Sydney, Australia, throughout 5 years of alcohol trading hour restrictions: controlled before-and-after study.

In February 2014, pubs and bars in Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD) of Sydney, Australia were required to stop serving alcohol by 3a.m. and operate a 'lockout' from 1.30a.m. We studied changes in the incidence of assault during the following 5years, including possible displacement. Controlled before-and-after ecological study. Sydney, Australia. Assaults in specified areas in which police apprehended at least one person. We compared change in non-domestic assault in KX and the CBD with adjacent areas, other city areas, and outer suburbs, adjusting for the trend in the rest of the state during three periods: 6 p.m.-1.29 a.m. ('pre-lockout'), 1.30 a.m.-2.59 a.m. ('lockout') and 3 a.m.-6 a.m. ('after last-drinks'). We constructed interrupted time-series models with terms for secular trend and season, producing incidence rate ratios (IRR) for step and slope parameters. We performed sensitivity analyses on impacts of missing location data. After the intervention, assaults fell 38% in KX (IRR for step change=0.62, 95% CI=0.49, 0.79) and 10% in the CBD (IRR=0.90, 95% CI=0.80, 0.99). Assaults continued declining in KX (IRR for slope=0.990, 95% CI=0.982, 0.998) and later increased in adjacent areas (IRR for slope=1.006, 95% CI=1.001, 1.011) and earlier in the evenings in both KX and the adjacent areas. The net reduction was 627 assaults over 60months post-intervention, i.e. 10 fewer per month. Estimates were robust to extreme assumptions about missing data. The 2014 alcohol supply restrictions for pubs and bars in Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD) of Sydney, Australia were followed by a substantial reduction in the incidence of assault in KX and to a lesser extent in the CBD, possibly displacing some cases to adjacent areas and earlier in the evening.

The mass fraction of halo stars contributed by the disruption of globular clusters in the E-MOSAICS simulations

ABSTRACT Globular clusters (GCs) have been posited, alongside dwarf galaxies, as significant contributors to the field stellar population of the Galactic halo. In order to quantify their contribution, we examine the fraction of halo stars formed in stellar clusters in the suite of 25 present-day Milky Way-mass cosmological zoom simulations from the E-MOSAICS project. We find that a median of 2.3 and 0.3 per cent of the mass in halo field stars formed in clusters and GCs, defined as clusters more massive than 5 × 103 and 105 M⊙, respectively, with the 25–75th percentiles spanning 1.9–3.0 and 0.2–0.5 per cent being caused by differences in the assembly histories of the host galaxies. Under the extreme assumption that no stellar cluster survives to the present day, the mass fractions increase to a median of 5.9 and 1.8 per cent. These small fractions indicate that the disruption of GCs plays a subdominant role in the build-up of the stellar halo. We also determine the contributed halo mass fraction that would present signatures of light-element abundance variations considered to be unique to GCs, and find that clusters and GCs would contribute a median of 1.1 and 0.2 per cent, respectively. We estimate the contributed fraction of GC stars to the Milky Way halo, based on recent surveys, and find upper limits of 2–5 per cent (significantly lower than previous estimates), suggesting that models other than those invoking strong mass loss are required to describe the formation of chemically enriched stellar populations in GCs.

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Outcome of twin pregnancy with two live fetuses at 11-13 weeks' gestation.

To report and compare pregnancy outcome in dichorionic (DC), monochorionic diamniotic (MCDA) and monochorionic monoamniotic (MCMA) twin pregnancies with two live fetuses at 11-13 weeks' gestation and to examine the impact of endoscopic laser surgery for severe twin-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) and/or selective fetal growth restriction (sFGR) on the outcome of MCDA twins. This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on twin pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation between 2002 and 2019. In pregnancies with no major abnormalities, we compared overall survival, fetal loss at < 24 weeks' gestation, perinatal death at ≥ 24 weeks, delivery at < 37 and < 32 weeks, and birth weight < 5th percentile between DC, MCDA and MCMA twins. The study population of 6225 twin pregnancies with two live fetuses at 11-13 weeks' gestation with no major abnormalities included 4896 (78.7%) DC, 1274 (20.5%) MCDA and 55 (0.9%) MCMA twins. In DC twins, the rate of loss at < 24 weeks' gestation in all fetuses was 2.3%; this rate was higher in MCDA twins (7.7%; relative risk (RR), 3.258; 95% CI, 2.706-3.923) and more so in MCMA twins (21.8%; RR, 9.289; 95% CI, 6.377-13.530). In DC twins, the rate of perinatal death at ≥ 24 weeks in all twins that were alive at 24 weeks was 1.0%; this rate was higher in MCDA twins (2.5%; RR, 2.456; 95% CI, 1.779-3.389) and more so in MCMA twins (9.3%; RR, 9.130; 95% CI, 4.584-18.184). In DC twins, the rate of preterm birth at < 37 weeks' gestation in pregnancies with at least one liveborn twin was 48.6%; this rate was higher in MCDA twins (88.5%; RR, 1.824; 95% CI, 1.760-1.890) and more so in MCMA twins (100%; RR, 2.060; 95% CI, 2.000-2.121). In DC twins, the rate of preterm birth at < 32 weeks was 7.4%; this rate was higher in MCDA twins (14.2%; RR, 1.920; 95% CI, 1.616-2.281) and more so in MCMA twins (26.8%; RR, 3.637; 95% CI, 2.172-6.089). In DC twin pregnancies with at least one liveborn twin, the rate of a small-for-gestational-age neonate among all liveborn twins was 31.2% and in MCDA twins this rate was higher (37.8%; RR, 1.209; 95% CI, 1.138-1.284); in MCMA twins, the rate was not significantly different (33.3%; RR, 1.067; 95% CI, 0.783-1.455). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant difference in survival in MCDA and MCMA twins, compared to DC twins, for both the interval of 12 to < 24 weeks' gestation (log-rank test, P < 0.0001 for both) and that of ≥ 24 to 38 weeks (log-rank test, P < 0.0001 for both). Endoscopic laser ablation of intertwin communicating placental vessels was carried out in 127 (10.0%) MCDA twin pregnancies for TTTS and/or sFGR and, in 111 of these, surgery was performed at < 24 weeks; both fetuses survived in 62 (55.9%) cases, one fetus survived in 25 (22.5%) cases and there were no survivors in 24 (21.6%) cases. On the extreme assumption that, had laser surgery not been carried out in these cases, all fetuses would have died, the total fetal loss rate at < 24 weeks' gestation in MCDA twins would have been 13.5%. The rates of fetal loss at < 24 weeks' gestation, perinatal death at ≥ 24 weeks and preterm birth are higher in MCDA and more so in MCMA twins than in DC twins. In MCDA twins, the rate of fetal loss may have been reduced by endoscopic laser surgery in those that developed early TTTS and/or sFGR. These data would be useful in counseling parents as to the likely outcome of their pregnancy and in defining strategies for surveillance and interventions in the management of the different types of twin pregnancy. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of the Instrumental Inequalities to a Mendelian Randomization Study With Multiple Proposed Instruments

Investigators often support the validity of Mendelian randomization (MR) studies, an instrumental variable approach proposing genetic variants as instruments, via subject matter knowledge. However, the instrumental variable model implies certain inequalities, offering an empirical method of falsifying (but not verifying) the underlying assumptions. While these inequalities are said to detect only extreme assumption violations in practice, to our knowledge they have not been used in settings with multiple proposed instruments. We applied the instrumental inequalities to an MR analysis of the effect of maternal pregnancy Vitamin D on offspring psychiatric outcomes, proposing four independent maternal genetic variants as instruments. We assessed whether the proposed instruments satisfied the instrumental inequalities separately and jointly and explored the instrumental inequalities' properties via simulations. The instrumental inequalities were satisfied (i.e., we did not falsify the MR model) when considering each variant separately. However, the inequalities were violated when considering four variants jointly and for some combinations of two or three variants (2 of 36 two-variant combinations and 18 of 24 three-variant combinations). In simulations, the inequalities detected structural biases more often when assessing proposed instruments jointly, while falsification in the absence of structural bias remained rare. The instrumental inequalities detected violations of the MR assumptions for genetic variants jointly proposed as instruments in our study, though the instrumental inequalities were satisfied when considering each proposed instrument separately. We discuss how investigators can assess instrumental inequalities to eliminate clearly invalid analyses in settings with many proposed instruments and provide appropriate code.

GRADE-Leitlinien: 17. Beurteilung des Bias-Risikos durch fehlende Endpunkt-Daten im Evidenzkörper

ObjectiveTo provide GRADE guidance for assessing risk of bias across an entire body of evidence consequent on missing data for systematic reviews of both binary and continuous outcomes. Study Design and SettingSystematic survey of published methodological research, iterative discussions, testing in systematic reviews, and feedback from the GRADE Working Group. ResultsApproaches begin with a primary meta-analysis using a complete case analysis followed by sensitivity meta-analyses imputing, in each study, data for those with missing data, and then pooling across studies. For binary outcomes, we suggest use of “plausible worst case” in which review authors assume that those with missing data in treatment arms have proportionally higher event rates than those followed successfully. For continuous outcomes, imputed mean values come from other studies within the systematic review and the standard deviation (SD) from the median SDs of the control arms of all studies. ConclusionsIf the results of the primary meta-analysis are robust to the most extreme assumptions viewed as plausible, one does not rate down certainty in the evidence for risk of bias due to missing participant outcome data. If the results fail to prove robust to plausible assumptions, one would rate down certainty in the evidence for risk of bias.

Entrapment: An Important Mechanism to Explain the Shortwave 3D Radiative Effect of Clouds

AbstractSeveral mechanisms have previously been proposed to explain differences between the shortwave reflectance of realistic cloud scenes computed using the 1D independent column approximation (ICA) and 3D solutions of the radiative transfer equation. When the sun is low in the sky, interception of sunlight by cloud sides tends to increase reflectance relative to ICA estimates that neglect this effect. When the sun is high, 3D radiative transfer tends to make clouds less reflective, which we argue is explained by the mechanism of “entrapment” whereby horizontal transport of radiation beneath a cloud layer increases the chances, relative to the ICA, of light being absorbed by cloud or the surface. It is especially important for multilayered cloud scenes. We describe modifications to the previously described Speedy Algorithm for Radiative Transfer through Cloud Sides (SPARTACUS) to represent different entrapment assumptions, and test their impact on 65 contrasting scenes from a cloud-resolving model. When entrapment is represented explicitly via a calculation of the mean horizontal distance traveled by reflected light, SPARTACUS predicts a mean “3D radiative effect” (the difference in top-of-atmosphere irradiances between 3D and ICA calculations) of 8.1 W m−2 for overhead sun. This is within 2% of broadband Monte Carlo calculations on the same scenes. The importance of entrapment is highlighted by the finding that the extreme assumptions in SPARTACUS of “zero entrapment” and “maximum entrapment” lead to corresponding mean 3D radiative effects of 1.7 and 19.6 W m−2, respectively.

Effect of structure, porosity, saturating fluid and solid material on the effective thermal conductivity of open-cells foams

This work focuses on the evaluation of the effective thermal conductivity of ultra-light materials, as the highly porous two-phase systems (foams). The main aim of the paper is to show that the exact mathematical solution of the heat conduction equation, based on the constitutive Fourier law and without any empirical constant nor ad hoc assumptions, is possible under an assumed thermal condition. To cover the range of real thermal conditions the present theoretical approach employs the two extreme thermal assumptions, i.e. parallel isothermal lines and parallel heat fluxes. The analysis is carried out upon an elementary cubic cell investigating the effect of structure, porosity, saturating fluid and solid material of open-cells foams. Comparisons among the present purely theoretical results and some experimental data of the literature confirm favorably the present approach.

A high baryon fraction in massive haloes at z ∼ 3

We investigate the baryon content of the circumgalactic medium (CGM) within the virial radius of $M_h \sim 10^{12} \; M_\odot$ haloes at z ~ 3, by modelling the surface brightness profile of the giant Ly$\alpha$ nebulae recently discovered by MUSE around bright QSOs at this redshift. We initially assume fluorescent emission from cold photo-ionized gas confined by the pressure of a hot halo. Acceptable CGM baryon fractions (equal or smaller than the cosmological value) require that the cold gas occupies $\lesssim$ 1% of the volume, but is about as massive as the hot gas. CGM baryon fractions as low as 30% of the cosmic value, as predicted by some strongly ejective feedback models at this redshift, are not easy to reconcile with observations, under our assumptions, unless both the QSO-hosting haloes at $z\sim3$ are more massive than recent BOSS estimates based on clustering and the photo-ionized gas is colder than expected in a standard QSO ionizing radiation field. We also consider the option that the emission is dominated by photons scattered from the QSO broad line region. In this scenario, a very stringent lower limit to the baryon fraction can be obtained under the extreme assumption of optically thin scattering. We infer in this case a baryon fraction of at least 70% of the cosmic value, for fiducial parameters. Lower values require halo masses or gas temperatures different than expected, or that some mechanism keeps the cold gas systematically over-pressured with respect to the ambient medium.

A comprehensive study to evaluate absolute uptake of carbon dioxide adsorption onto composite adsorbent

In this study, new composite adsorbent with enhanced thermal conductivity and adsorption capacity was synthesized and analyzed comprehensively for the development of compact CO2 based adsorption cooling system. The consolidated composite was prepared employing activated carbon, graphene nanoplatelets and hydroxyl cellulose as a parent adsorbent, thermal conductivity enhancer, and binder, respectively. The surface area and pore volume of the composite were found to be 1778 ± 13 m2 g−1 and 1.014 cm3 g−1, respectively. In addition, the composite showed 233% higher thermal conductivity compared to the parent activated carbon. Adsorption characteristics of CO2 were measured at temperature ranging from 20 to 70 °C and pressures up to 5 MPa. Absolute uptake was evaluated from excess adsorption based on the following two methods: (i) the adsorbed phase volume is equal to the pore volume of the adsorbent; and (ii) the adsorbed phase volume is almost zero under low pressure and/or high temperature conditions. Furthermore, the averaging of above two methods was also taken for avoiding these two extreme assumptions. Obtained absolute adsorption uptake data were fitted with modified Dubinin-Astakhov and Tóth models. Results indicated good approximation between data points and models. The average isosteric heats of adsorption estimated using modified D-A and Tóth model were found to be 19.742 kJ mol−1 and 19.023 kJ mol−1, respectively. The obtained characteristics of composite adsorbent are prerequisites for designing compact CO2 based adsorption cooling systems.

Pathways of demographic and urban development and their effects on land take and ecosystem services: The case of Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes, particularly land take by urbanization, can jeopardize ecosystems and their capacity to provide humans with numerous benefits, known as ecosystem services. A better understanding of the connections between land take, changes in complex LULC patterns and ecosystem services is still needed. Especially needed are forward-looking analyses that can support spatial planning in the face of targets like “no net land take,” as set in Europe. The aim of this research is to gain insight into the possible consequences of alternative pathways of demographic and urban development, in terms of land take and ecosystem services supply. Using the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in Portugal as case study, four contrasting scenarios for 2030 were developed that cover major determinants of land take (with a focus on residential development) and priority ecosystem services for the region, as well as deal with climate regulation, recreation and food production. Our findings suggest that the effects of urban development on land take are positive for a “compact city” and negative for an “urban sprawl” pattern, even for opposite demographic developments (growth versus decline). However, each pattern can have both positive and negative effects on the supply of ecosystem services. Hence, tensions can exist between the “compact city” model of urban development and the provision of ecosystem services to urban dwellers, especially across planning levels. We argue that the way land take is defined can influence the outcome of this kind of assessment, depending on which LULC dataset is used to support it. Exploring the approach developed in this research with different stakeholders while adopting more extreme scenario assumptions can provide additional insights on the topic.

International risk sharing in overlapping generations models

We propose a way to address the Backus–Smith puzzle that, instead of relying on extreme parameter values or complex modeling assumptions, simply switches the framework from infinitely lived agents to overlapping generations. Young agents face nondiversifiable wage risk that leads to a low degree of risk sharing within each country. Subsequently, international price movements are not sufficient to achieve the high consumption-real exchange rate correlation produced in standard infinitely lived agent DSGE models.

THE IDEA OF ORGANISING THE 2022 WINTER OLYMPIC GAMES IN KRAKOW AND SLOVAKIA

Aims. In 2012 Kraków together with Zakopane and the Slovak Republic applied to International Olympic Committee for organization of Winter Olympic Games in 2022. This article aims to illustrate in what aspects Kraków, Małopolska and Poland could suceed or fail as a result of being the Olympic Games organizer. Methods. By applying in our research multicriterial decision support methods AHP/ANP we will show Benefits (B), hidden Benefits - Opportunities (O), and on the other side - Costs (C) and hidden costs - Risks ( R ). Hypotheses. We assumed the following decision scenarios for organizing the Olympic Games in Poland: A. Organization of the Winter Olympic Games 2022 - with limited benefits and relatively low costs; B. Organization of the Winter Olympic Games 2022 with average costs and relatively high costs C. Organization of the Winter Olympic Games 2022 - with high benefits and relatively high costs. Results. AHP/ANP model included 39 BOCR criteria, including economic, technological, political and social factors determining Winter Olympic Games in Kraków, Zakopane and Slovak Republic. Pairwise comparison was made, with help of experts, of criteria individually to each BOCR (benefits - B, opportunities - O, costs - C and risk - R) value, next subcriteria to criteria, in four control hierarchy (in T.L. Saaty's fundamental scale). Relative weights of criteria are the result of pairwise comparison of each criterion against each other. The results of pairwise comparisons of BOCR eigenvalues support the profitability of organizing the Winter Olympics in Poland and Slovakia. Sensitivity analysis can slightly change the values of priorities for analyzed alternatives, but that requires taking extreme assumptions for BOCR ((benefits - B, opportunities - O, costs - C and risks - R) prioritization and their control criteria. As a result of prioritization for all criteria and subcriteria the following synthetic comparison. results for analyzed decision alternatives for organizing Winter Olympic Games in Kraków were obtained: 1. model B (0.40) - with average costs and relatively high costs; 2. model A ( 0.35) – with limited benefits and relatively low costs; 3. Model C (0.25) – with high benefits and relatively high costs. Conclusions. 1.The organization of the Winter Olympics in Poland and Slovakia she off could pay off; 2. As a result of prioritization, two math formulas give the same results for organizing Winter Olympic Games 2022 with relatively average costs and high benefits, as the best alternative. Results. AHP/ANP model included 39 BOCR criteria, including economic, technological, political and social factors determining Winter Olympic Games in Kraków, Zakopane and Slovak Republic. Pairwise comparison was made, with help of experts, of criteria individually to each BOCR value, next subcriteria to criteria, in four control hierarchy (in T.L. Saaty's fundamental scale). Relative weights of criteria are the result of pairwise comparison of each criterion against each other. As a result of prioritization for all criteria and subcriteria the following synthetic comparison. results for analyzed decision alternatives for organizing Winter Olympic Games in Kraków were obtained: 1. model B (0.40) - with average costs and relatively high costs, 2. model A ( 0.35) – with limited benefits and relatively low costs 3. Model C (0.25) – with high benefits and relatively high costs. Sensitivity analysis can slightly change the values of priorities for analyzed alternatives, but that requires taking extreme assumptions for BOCR prioritization and their control criteria. Conclusions. As a result of prioritization, two math formulas give the same results for organizing Winter Olympic Games 2022 with relatively average costs and high benefits, as the best alternative.

Local merger rates of double neutron stars

AbstractThe first detection of gravitational waves from a merging double neutron star (DNS) binary implies a much higher rate of DNS coalescences in the local Universe than typically estimated on theoretical grounds. The recent study by Chruslinska et al. (2018) shows that apart from being particularly sensitive to the common envelope treatment, DNS merger rates appear rather robust against variations of several factors probed in their study (e.g. conservativeness of the mass transfer, angular momentum loss, and natal kicks), unless extreme assumptions are made. Confrontation with the improving observational limits may allow to rule out some of the extreme models. To correctly compare model predictions with observational limits one has to account for the other factors that affect the rates. One of those factors relates to the assumed history of star formation and chemical evolution of the Universe and its impact on the final results needs to be better constrained.

Gaia Data Release 2

The second Gaia data release (Gaia DR2) contains, beyond the astrometry, three-band photometry for 1.38 billion sources. One band is the G band, the other two were obtained by integrating the Gaia prism spectra (BP and RP). We have used these three broad photometric bands to infer stellar effective temperatures, Teff, for all sources brighter than G = 17 mag with Teff in the range 3000–10 000 K (some 161 million sources). Using in addition the parallaxes, we infer the line-of-sight extinction, AG, and the reddening, E(BP − RP), for 88 million sources. Together with a bolometric correction we derive luminosity and radius for 77 million sources. These quantities as well as their estimated uncertainties are part of Gaia DR2. Here we describe the procedures by which these quantities were obtained, including the underlying assumptions, comparison with literature estimates, and the limitations of our results. Typical accuracies are of order 324 K (Teff), 0.46 mag (AG), 0.23 mag (E(BP − RP)), 15% (luminosity), and 10% (radius). Being based on only a small number of observable quantities and limited training data, our results are necessarily subject to some extreme assumptions that can lead to strong systematics in some cases (not included in the aforementioned accuracy estimates). One aspect is the non-negativity contraint of our estimates, in particular extinction, which we discuss. Yet in several regions of parameter space our results show very good performance, for example for red clump stars and solar analogues. Large uncertainties render the extinctions less useful at the individual star level, but they show good performance for ensemble estimates. We identify regimes in which our parameters should and should not be used and we define a “clean” sample. Despite the limitations, this is the largest catalogue of uniformly-inferred stellar parameters to date. More precise and detailed astrophysical parameters based on the full BP/RP spectrophotometry are planned as part of the third Gaia data release.

Crowding Out in a Dual Currency Regime? Digital versus Fiat Currency

In this paper, we analyse a dual currency regime with fiat currency and digital currency and investigate potential crowding-out effects of fiat currency or digital currency under the framework of the traditional monetary economic model. We find that crowding out only occurs under extreme assumptions, i.e. extremely high costs associated with the use (medium of exchange and store of value) of one currency and extremely low costs associated with the use of the other currency.

Crowding Out in a Dual Currency Regime? Digital Versus Fiat Currency

ABSTRACTIn this article, we analyze a dual currency regime with fiat currency and digital currency and investigate potential crowding-out effects of fiat currency or digital currency under the framework of the traditional monetary economic model. We find that crowding out occurs only under extreme assumptions, i.e., extremely high costs associated with the use (medium of exchange and store of value) of one currency and extremely low costs associated with the use of the other currency.