External Interest Research Articles

Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Kazakhstan

The article presents dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Kazakhstan and its parameters estimation by Bayesian methods. A feature of DSGE-approach is the use of the neo-Keynesian microeconomic foundation, which allows describing the behavior of key economic actors and taking into account the main market failures (imperfect markets and sticky prices). In addition, DSGE-models are based on the theory of rational expectations. The model is a system of 15 linearized equations for key macroeconomic indicators of the main economic sectors: households, enterprises, the National Bank, and the external sector. The model describes the economy in the short term (excluding investments in fixed assets), in the inflation targeting mode with a floating exchange rate. Parameters were evaluated by Bayesian methods. The advantage of this approach is the possibility to estimate parameters on short time series due to the use of prior information. This is important in the conditions of structural changes. Scenario calculations were performed on the estimated parameters for aggregate factor productivity shocks and aggregate demand shocks, for prices shock and for an increase in external interest rates. The results can be used for the development of monetary policy and optimization of its parameters. The results can also be used as a foundation for building applied QPM models.

Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and their Impact on Non-Performing Loans in Jordanian Banks

This study aims at showing the impact of macroeconomic variables such as GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, remittances of workers abroad and external grants on non-performing loans in Jordanian banks. To achieve the objectives of the study and to test its hypothesis, the Autoregressive Distributed-lagged model (ARDL) was used. The study found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between these variables of the study. It also found that there is an inverse relationship with a significant effect on the long and short term for both external grants, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and interest rates on non-performing loans in Jordanian banks. On the other hand, the study concluded that there is no impact on the long and short run for both remittances of workers abroad and the rate of unemployment on non-performing loans in Jordanian banks because these variables are not significant. The study recommends the Jordanian government to adopt policies and programs aiming at the reduction of the cost of borrowing to cut down NPAs, to promote the development of local investments and explore new international markets to attract Jordanian labor.

Determinants of Financial Performance of Insurance Companies of USA and UK during Global Financial Crisis (2007-2016)

The economy as well as insurance industry of USA and UK face decline during last decade. The researcher compares two insurance industries, analysis possible determinants of financial performance during global financial crisis, collected 24 insurance companies’ Quarterly data from 2007-16 and applied panel data techniques. Explanatory variables based on internal (Size of firm, liquidity, leverage and asset turnover) and external factors (GDP (Gross Domestic Product), CPI (Cost per Impression), interest rate and WTI (West Texas Intermediate)). Dependent variable: ROA (Return on Assets) and ROE (Return on Equity) (profitability indicators). This study concludes; In USA size of firm, liquidity, leverage, asset turnover, GDP and WTI have positive while CPI and interest rate have negative significant impact. In UK size of firm, liquidity, GDP, CPI and WTI have positive but leverage, asset turnover and interest rate has negative significant impact; US insurance is efficient as compare to UK. These findings will be helpful for insurance industries, government, policymakers and investors in taking decision and improving the performance.

Mind This Gap, Too: Political Orientations of People with Disabilities in Europe

People with disabilities constitute one of the largest minority groups in Europe, and yet our knowledge about how they relate to the political system remains limited. In addition to facing practical barriers such as inaccessible campaign material and polling stations, they often have fewer resources that facilitate and promote confidence and engagement in politics. Moreover, experiences of discrimination and low numbers of politicians with disabilities can generate feelings of disempowerment. Using European Social Survey data from 30 countries from 2002 to 2015, this study shows that people with disabilities have lower levels of internal and external efficacy, political trust and interest, and electoral participation. The disparities in internal efficacy and political interest disappear when accounting for education, income, employment, and social contact. Meanwhile, significant gaps in external efficacy, political trust, and turnout remain to be explained. Perceptions of discrimination strengthen the internal efficacy and political interest of citizens with disabilities but further decrease their external efficacy, political trust, and turnout. The study sheds light on a frequently overlooked dimension of political inequality, provides insights on several contributing factors, and highlights where further research is needed.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The differences in pleasing value and learning performance among different groups using mobile augmented reality system for cultural environment learning

Mobile Augmented Reality (MAR) has becomes more widely used and provides the great context of an immersive virtual learning environment. However, sometimes the learning effect is influenced by the pleasing value, which is always subjective and learning driven. In order to ensure a successful launch of the MAR cultural interactive learning tool, it is extremely important to predict the pleasing value of design alternatives based on the common language understood by students. For learners, in the learning process, the value of pleasure comes from the improvement of external emotional interest as well as internal cognitive interest that learners already have. This research will examine if students have problems with operating the MAR, and to understand whether they have pleasing value and a learning performance. Thus, this research has proposed a difference of visual perception and a construction for the evaluation of pleasing value as well as the culture of learning performance between media students and students in other majors. The research team has chosen different cultural temples in Shi-lin and Tam-sui in Taiwan using the MAR systems to evaluate the correctness and speed of the reaction in between the two groups represented as: the experimental group and the control group. The research objects will be the second year/sophomore studentsat Taipei University of Marine Technology. There were two classes with different majors and there were 35 students in each class. This research took one of the classes as the experimental group with “MAR empirical teaching in cultural and environmental learning” and other class will be the control group using the traditional teaching method. The result from the experiment and the ANCOVA analysis indicates: (1) Based on the results of experiments, the participants appreciated the MAR approach. The learning performance of the students did improve significantly via ACNOVA. (2) The experimental group has a more significant effect compared to the control group in the aspect from the four learning performance constructions: stylistic, cultural value, cultural characterization and innovation services. (3) Through the bi-variance statistical analysis (One-Way, ANOVA), there was a significant positive correlation between pleasing value and the improvement of post-learning interest in the experimental group. This research found that based on the exploration factor from that the results the interfaces were built on a mobile phone with a touch-screen can be a model for the effectiveness examination, It can also expand the MAR application scope by incorporating it into teaching.

Challenging the assumption about a direct relationship between historic preservation and architecture in the United States

A close relationship is assumed to exist between historic preservation and architectural practice. This study explores the nature of this relationship by using evidence from scholarly literature, the job market, and architectural education. The examined literature contains many examples showing that the architecture field views historic preservation as an external interest. Evidence from the job market indicates that architecture employers are uninterested in historic preservation skills, and historic preservation employers are not looking for architecture skills. Architecture schools and accrediting organizations either disregard historic preservation or minimize its importance. Moreover, historic preservation is more closely related to environmental and behavioral studies than it is to the architectural field. The relationship between architecture and historic preservation is tenuous, strained, and based more on stereotypes than on actual evidence.

WHAT DRIVES CAPITAL FLOWS TO EMERGING MARKETS? A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

AbstractThis paper reviews the rapidly growing empirical literature on the drivers of capital flows to emerging markets. The empirical evidence is structured based on the recognition that the drivers of capital flows vary over time and across different types of capital flows. The drivers are classified using the traditional distinction between ‘push’ and ‘pull’ drivers, which continues to serve as a useful framework. Push factors like global risk aversion and external interest rates are found to matter most for portfolio debt and equity flows, but somewhat less for banking flows. Pull factors such as domestic output growth, asset returns and country risk matter for all three capital flows components, but most for banking flows.

Do External Imbalances Matter in Explaining the Cross-Section of Currency Excess Returns?

Countries' external imbalances or interest rates produce similar currency sorts on average. Disentangling the two signals, we find that carry risk premiums come entirely from interest rates. An alternative carry formed on interest rates orthogonal to external imbalances increases the Sharpe ratio by 38% and is not spanned by traditional carry or imbalance factors. Strikingly, this new orthogonal carry subsumes traditional carry. Traditional carry has well-known exposure to stock market returns and performs badly when FX volatility is high. We find these stylized facts are entirely driven by its association with imbalances factors which have similar risk attributes while orthogonal carry does not.

Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks

This paper quantifies the impact of three key external shocks – external demand, interest rate, and uncertainty shocks – on emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that external shocks have a sizeable impact on macroeconomic fluctuations in EMEs and that a considerable fraction of this impact is through the domestic stock market. A decrease in external demand and an increase in external interest rate and uncertainty lead to a higher unemployment rate, lower stock market return, and a depreciation of the domestic currency. The EMEs' monetary policy actively responds to external shocks and dampens their impact on domestic activity.

La fuga de capitales en la Argentina reciente (1976-2018)

En este trabajo, que surge de un proyecto de investigación que analiza el fenómeno de la restricción externa en la economía argentina, se compara la evolución de la fuga de capitales (junto a otras variables de relevancia para su análisis como la deuda externa y los intereses pagados), desde mediados de la década de 1970 del siglo pasado, centrándose en el período 2002-2017 (la posconvertibilidad). Para ello se utilizan diferentes métodos de estimación: el Residual del Balance de Pagos, el de Stocks y el Cambiario (Banco Central). Los resultados indican que entre 1976 y 2015 se extrajeron del sistema financiero nacional unos U$S 277.800 millones, aunque mientras en el período 1976-2001 las divisas provinieron del endeudamiento externo (privado y público), en la etapa 2002-2015 ese rol lo cumplió el superávit comercial. Las evidencias desde 2016 indicarían que nuevamente es el endeudamiento externo público garantiza la exteriorización de activos.

Long-run and Short-run Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Lebanon

Abstract This research detects the existence of monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Lebanon through which the actions of the central bank propagate. By adopting co-integration analysis and VECM frameworks, and by exploiting monthly data between January 1994 and December 2016, the research revealed the existence of a long-run interest rate channel, affecting both resident private sector deposits and credit to the private sector. Another short-run capital channel was revealed, affecting total credit provided by the banking sector. Additionally, the empirical results show that (1) deposit inflows are not attracted by high interest rates, but stimulated by confidence provided by large foreign currency reserves held by the central banks; (2) non-residents deposit inflows could represent a substitute for local credit; (3) banks pass-through any increase in funding cost to borrowers; and (4) an increase in external interest rates may trigger deposit outflows.

הסטוריה בלתי אפשרית? וועדות השואה כמספרות של טראומה.

Historical commissions have played an important role in the most recent efforts to garner restitution and reparations for Holocaust victims and their families. Several dozen Holocaust commissions were convened in the late‑1990s and early‑2000s in European countries where histories of collaboration and complicity with the Nazi regime were either under‑documented or suppressed in the official discourse. This essay examines the Holocaust commissions from a historiographical perspective with special attention given to the methodological and rhetorical strategies they employed when confronted by the traumatic experiences and memories of victims and survivors. While the work of these commissions was shaped and influenced, to varying degrees, by external political forces and interest groups, this essay explores the ways in which “the politics of history” entered into their written reports and, consequently, obscured and silenced fundamental aspects of Holocaust history. Three commissions, in particular, are held up for scrutiny (i.e., Austria’s Jabloner Commission, the International Commission for Holocaust‑Era Insurance Claims, and France’s Mattéoli Commission), and an assessment of their work is given against the backdrop of ongoing debates within the field of trauma studies and in response to questions concerning the Holocaust and the “limits of representation.”

A Monetary Conditions Index and its Application on Tunisian Economic Forecasting

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to find out the extent of the influence of internal and external monetary conditions on Tunisian macroeconomic aggregates by constructing a synthetic index. We seek to contribute to the empirical literature in the following ways. First, we calculate the weights assigned to domestic interest rate and the exchange rate based on the estimated coefficients respectively for these two dimensions over the period 1965-2015. Second, by employing a VAR model approach, we confirm the long-run dynamic between the considered variables. The analysis of shocks indicates that monetary conditions have a particular importance through their effects on economic activity and inflation. The latter is characterized by its significant negative influence on economic growth and by its contribution in linking between internal and external interest rates. Third, we use a SVAR model approach for analyzing the short-run structural dynamics between the variables. Our findings reveal that the Tunisian economy is significantly influenced by external monetary conditions. This extensive influence is confirmed through the dynamics of structural monetary policy shocks and exchange rate. Overall, our study finds that the exchange rate plays an increasing role in transmitting the monetary policy effect to the inflation rate and thus the real economy. Keywords. Monetary conditions index, SVAR approach, Structural monetary shocks. JEL. E43, E51, E52.

Unemployment Dynamics in Emerging Countries: Global Financial Risk and Interest Rates

This paper quantifies the impact of three key external shocks -- external demand, interest rate, and uncertainty shocks -- on emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that external shocks have a sizeable impact on macroeconomic fluctuations in EMEs and that a considerable fraction of this impact is through the domestic stock market. A decrease in external demand and an increase in external interest rate and uncertainty lead to a higher unemployment rate, lower stock market return, and a depreciation of the domestic currency. The EMEs' monetary policy actively responds to external shocks and dampens their impact on domestic activity.

Managing Capital Flows in the Presence of External Risks

We introduce external risks, in the form of shocks to the level and volatility of world interest rates, into a small open economy model subject to the risk of sudden stops—large recessions together with abrupt reversals in capital inflows| and characterize optimal macroprudential policy in response to these shocks. In the model, collateral constraints create a pecuniary externality that leads to "overborrowing" and sudden stops that arise when the constraints bind. The typical sudden stop generated by the model replicates existing empirical evidence for emerging market economies: Low and stable external interest rates reinforce "overborrowing" and lead to greater exposure to crises typically accompanied by abrupt increases in interest rates and a persistent rise in their volatility. We solve for the optimal policy and argue that the size of a tax on international borrowing that implements the policy depends on two factors, the incidence and the severity of potential future crises. We show quantitatively that these taxes respond to both the level and volatility of interest rates even though optimal decisions in the competitive equilibrium do not respond substantially to changes in volatility, and that the size of the optimal tax is non-monotonic with respect to external shocks.

Financial Globalization and the International Transmission of Interest Rate Shocks: The Federal Reserve and China

This paper evaluates the spillovers from U.S. policy to China's domestic interest rates over 1999-2016, focusing on the impacts of long-term interest rate and exchange rate regimes on the capacity of China to moderate external interest rate shocks. We find that China's central bank owns some extent of autonomy as it has a significant preference to control inflation and stimulate the economy even beyond the potential growth. However, China’s interest rates are significantly impacted by U.S. policy especially after the crisis. The transmission from U.S. interest rates to China at the long-end even exists before the crisis, but only for the positive change of U.S. interest rates. The comparison with New Zealand's experience provides some evidence that central banks are more likely facing a monetary dilemma and China's fixed exchange rate regime with capital controls might help to mitigate the spillovers of external shocks in a turmoil period.

Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria sobre la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio: un análisis para Colombia, 2008-2015

This paper seeks evidence on the effects of central bank communication. To do this, the ability of financial markets to predict monetary policy decisions in Colombia is evaluated. Also, the effects of surprise decisions by the central bank of Colombia on exchange rate volatility are estimated. The results show that central bank communication decreases the volatility of the exchange rate. In addition, it is found that other variables such as external risk, the price of oil and external interest rates affect exchange rate volatility in Colombia.

Effects of Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk on Financial Performance of Non-Banking Companies Listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange

The general objective of this study was to establish the effects ofhedging foreign exchange risk on financial performance of non-bankingcompanies listed at the Nairobi securities exchange. A descriptive researchdesign was adopted on the target population of 49 non-banking firms listed atthe NSE. Primary data collected using a questionnaire was used containingboth open and close ended questions. Data was analyzed using SPSS togenerate descriptive statistics such as percentages, frequency distribution,measures of central tendencies (mean) and the data was presented in tables.The study conducted multiple regression analysis to establish the extent towhich the hedging techniques affected firm’s performance. The resultsshowed that, taking all factors into account (internal hedging techniques,external hedging technique, inflation and interest rates) performance of nonfinancialfirms would be 0.564. The findings presented further indicated thatinternal hedging had the greatest effect on the firm performance (β = 0.551),Inflation (β = 0.322), External hedging (β = 0.133 while interest rate (β =0.024) had the least effect to the firms performance. However, all thevariables were significant (p<0.05). Hedging techniques affected firm’sperformance i.e. profitability, sales revenue and the cash flow and liquidityposition of the firm. The internal techniques were more effective on theperformance than the external techniques. The four independent variablesstudied accounted for 75.5% of the variations in non-banking firms’performance as represented by the adjusted R2. This therefore means the fourvariables contribute to 75.5% of performance, while other factors not studiedin this research contributes 24.5%. The study recommends that, firmsdevelop a robust foreign exchange risk management framework whichclearly shows its currency risk assessment procedure and implementation of currency risk management strategies. It also recommends that the variousaspects of firm’s financial performance be taken into consideration beforeadopting a particular technique to hedge to protect cash flow, liquidity,profitability and sales revenue.

Determinantes do Investimento Estrangeiro no Mercado de Capitais Brasileiro

Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar fatores que afetariam significativamente a dinâmica do investimento estrangeiro em carteira no mercado brasileiro. Sob a perspectiva do agente que já internalizou seus recursos no país, verificou-se que períodos de maior liquidez e descorrelação com mercados externos estimulariam aumentos das atividades (compras e vendas) desses atores, sendo que o risco pais, taxas de juros local e externa e desempenho recente do mercado seriam particularmente motivadores a novas compras desses atores. Quanto à decisão novos aportes (ou saques) no mercado brasileiro, o desempenho dos mercados externos desenvolvidos e os juros locais revelaram-se determinantes robustos, sendo que o desenvolvimento bursátil doméstico, cenários de crise, o evento do investment grade e a diversificação local (em relação a mercados externos) teriam sido particularmente influentes na dinâmica de internalização desses recursos no país.

다목적 터널의 침수 시 비상 대응에 관한 연구

Recently, domestic and external interest in regard to become underground of traffic tunnel is heightened due to the urbanization get at saturated network of roads. In addition, due to develop urban areas flood have occurred frequently, canal tunnel’s development to prevent the flood by bypassing flood discharge about flood-prone area is required. In this study, emergency response plans in the multipurpose tunnels were investigated from the related government report, websites, and previous researches. The investigated emergency response plans to cope with the natural disasters including flooding were compared to the South Korean’s cases. As a result, the problem of the water canal were explained and the disaster response policies were proposed based on the necessity of the consistency and sustainability for the disaster industry.