Export Dynamics Research Articles

Threats and Opportunities for Sustainable Development Goals of Aromatic and Medicinal Plants: A Comparative Analysis

Objective: This paper highlights trends, threats and opportunities in the export markets for Aromatic and Medicinal Plants (AMPs) in Albania and globally from 2013 to 2023. Theoretical Framework: In this paper we use interdisciplinary theoretical foundation, combining theoretical backgrounds from economics, environmental sciences, and international trade theories to analyse the threats and opportunities for Sustainable Development Goals of aromatic and medicinal plants. Method: The methodological approach implemented in this paper combines quantitative and qualitative analyses to comprehensively examine the trends and dynamics of exports of AMPs globally and in Albania. By using robust data sources and analytical techniques, the research provides empirical insights into market trends, contributing factors and potential strategies for sector improvement. Results and Discussion: Despite a 6.15% drop in quantity, the global AMPs market has seen a 14.71% increase in economic value, indicating a shift towards higher economic value. The AMPs sector in Albania faces difficulties with production capacity and market access, despite the country's rich biodiversity and potential in these resources. Research Implications: Important conclusions include the necessity of value-added processing, market diversification, and sustainable production methods to boost the industry's competitiveness. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by providing comprehensive understanding of the factors shaping global an Albanian AMPs trade and provide actionable insights for policy makers and stakeholders.

Analyzing the Competitiveness of Indonesia's Lobster Exports: Comparative and Competitive Advantages Using RCA and ECI Indices

This research aims to analyze the competitiveness (comparative and competitive advantages) of Indonesia's lobster commodity exports. The data used in this research consists of secondary data in the form of panel data obtained from the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries of Indonesia, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the United Nations Commodity Trade (UN Comtrade), and the International Trade Center (ITC). Comparative advantage is measured using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, and competitive advantage is measured using the Export Competitiveness Index (ECI). The findings reveal that Indonesia holds a stronger comparative advantage in lobster exports compared to Vietnam, with an average RCA value of 25.46 for Indonesia and 13.08 for Vietnam. Similarly, Indonesia demonstrates higher competitive advantage, as indicated by an average ECI value of 3.57 compared to Vietnam's 3.28. However, Indonesia's ECI values have shown fluctuations in recent years, highlighting periods of declining competitive advantage due to export policies and international market conditions. The findings provide policymakers with insights to develop balanced policies that ensure both environmental sustainability and economic growth. Additionally, it highlights the critical need for ongoing, granular analysis of export dynamics, particularly in the context of the Southeast Asian market.

Export performance and direction of major agricultural commodities from Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu is India's second-largest economy and its agricultural performance is also significant. The state has been involved in trading of agricultural commodities for many years. In recent years, due to change in export policy of major commodities, it is necessary to measure the performance and direction at state level. Hence, the present study aims to analyze the trends and direction of the trade for selected agricultural commodities from Tamil Nadu. Port-wise export data of the major agricultural commodities from Tamil Nadu were used to assess the export dynamics during 2007-2022. Non-basmati rice, pulses and groundnut were selected for the study based on their significance in the state agriculture as well as in the export trade. The results of the study revealed that the export growth of pulses was the highest among the selected commodities with 21.8% and 28.1% in terms of quantity and value respectively followed by non-basmati with 16.27% and 20.1% in quantity and value terms respectively. However, the growth rate of export quantity of groundnut was negative with -0.1% whereas export value growth was positive with 5.9%. This revealed that export performance of pulses and non-basmati rice was better than groundnut. The Direction of export analysis revealed that Bangladesh and Benin for non-basmati rice, Sri Lanka, China and Singapore for pulses and Sri Lanka and Singapore for Groundnut would be the stable market for export from Tamil Nadu.

Trade barriers and export growth: Analyzing the US-China trade relationship with the LSDV model

This study employs a gravity model of trade to assess the repercussions of US-China trade frictions on China's export dynamics. Our findings unravel some noteworthy results: First, we find a significant and negative correlation between the variables linked to trade frictions, namely Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and Average Tariff (AT), and the volume of China's exports. Secondly, the regression results do not indicate that the SPS has a dampening effect on China's exports. Thirdly, China's exports are more affected by the Average Tariff (AT) than by Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). Finally, the exports from the previous period positively influenced China's exports to the US. In other words, the US-China trade friction has significantly reduced China's exports to the US. As a policy implication, China should reduce its dependence on the US market, diversify its markets, uphold the principles of free trade and multilateralism, and promote openness in response to the challenges of the trade war.

Reassessing the Role of Exchange Rates in Export Dynamics: Evidence from a Disaggregated Industry-Level Analysis in the Case of Nepal

Reassessing the Role of Exchange Rates in Export Dynamics: Evidence from a Disaggregated Industry-Level Analysis in the Case of Nepal

Роль и значение международной торговли в экономическом развитии государства

This article studies the factors of international economic development based on the analysis of the dynamics of export and import of goods, taking into account the main trends in the development of the world economy. The authors examine the fundamental principles of international trade and outline the advantages of international trade. The main trends of world trade are analyzed, the main leaders in export and import are identified, and Russia's place is determined. Based on the results of the study, the authors draw a conclusion about the role and importance of international trade in the development of the state.

Analysis of Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in the Iraqi Economy (1970-2013)

his research paper investigates the distinction between the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate, highlighting their insinuations for economic policies and export dynamics in Iraqi economy. The nominal exchange rate measures the relative price between two different currencies, defined as the number of domestic currency units required to purchase one unit of a foreign currency. While the real exchange rate is considered as a relative price of non-tradeable goods against tradable goods. The research paper also analyses numerous indices for evaluating the real exchange rate, recognizing the most appropriate method for the Iraqi economy. Moreover, the key roles of money supply and oil revenues in determining the exchange rate dynamics are considered. Given the dominance of oil sector in the Iraqi economy, its far-reaching effect on macroeconomic circumstance, including the exchange rate, is thoroughly tested. This study delivers a comprehensive outline for empathetic the interaction between exchange rates, money supply, government expenditure and monetary policies in a resource-dependent economy.

Hydrometric data discretization into environmental flow components: a new, practical approach to explore concentration-discharge relationships

The intricate dynamics of streamflow and water quality are often explored through the lens of concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships. Interpreting C-Q relationships and using mathematical models to explain them can, however, be challenging due to hysteresis effects, low-frequency data, or noisy data. To address these challenges, this study introduces a noise-filtering approach by aggregating discrete data collected over several years into bins corresponding to distinct environmental flow components (EFCs). Covering a spectrum from extreme low flows to small and large floods, this method simplifies C-Q analysis by focusing on watershed hydrochemical responses to varying flow conditions. The objectives of the study were to explore the variability of stream water quality across a gradient of EFCs, categorize watersheds based on their median dominant export behaviour type (e.g. dilution, mobilization, chemostatic), and evaluate the predictability of export behaviour type from watershed characteristics. The study relied on 30 watersheds located in Québec, Canada, ranging in size from 11 to 2610 km2, with daily streamflow data and at least monthly water quality data spanning at least two years over the 1989-2020 period. EFC-specific summary statistics for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were computed and used to assess C-Q relationships and classify the general tendencies of watershed export behaviour. Results reveal nuances in watershed export behaviour depending on the specific water quality parameter and flow components assessed. Some differences in watershed hydrobiogeochemical behaviours could be explained by differences in watershed physiographic characteristics. The EFC-based approach to C-Q analysis provides watershed scientists and managers with a simple and comprehensive tool to utilize existing data, enabling a deeper understanding of watershed nutrient export dynamics.

Comparative Study of Machine Learning (ML) and Conventional Time Series Methodologies in Modelling the Exports Trade of Pakistan

Export trade is a pivotal driver of economic growth and stability in any nation, including Pakistan. Accurate modelling of export trade holds immense significance as it allows for informed decision-making and strategic planning. By employing advanced techniques like machine learning alongside traditional time series models, we can gain deeper insights into the dynamics of exports, anticipate trends, and adapt policies and strategies accordingly. This study focuses on comparative study of different machine learning and time series models in forecasting the exports trade of Pakistan. The dataset used in this study spans from 1972 to 2021, containing yearly data on exports (% of GDP) for Pakistan. This study focuses on employing various machine learning models, including the MLP model, ELM model, and classical time series models like ARIMA and Exponential smoothing, to model and forecast the exports of Pakistan. The model that best met the KPI criteria was chosen as the optimal candidate for predicting the behaviour of the exports trade data. The outcomes of the study concluded that MLP model outperformed in performance metrics, with MSE = 0.49, RMSE = of 0.70, MAE = 0.53, and a MAPE = 4.27. among all alternative models, including the Extreme Learning Machine model, ARIMA model, and Simple Exponential Smoothing. Our study highlights the effectiveness of the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) model as a valuable tool for forecasting exports. Its accuracy empowers policymakers to make well-informed decisions, ensuring a more sustainable and prosperous economic future.

Agricultural trade deficit and its impact on Nepalese economy: A comprehensive review

International trade is essential for a country’s economic development and modernization, driven by the dynamics of imports and exports. This review comprehensively examines Nepal’s trade deficit and its impact on the national economy. Nepal’s trade landscape is characterized by a significant imbalance, with imports consistently surpassing exports, as evidenced by an import-to-export ratio of 10.26 in the fiscal year 2022/23. This trade deficit has profound implications for national income, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, inflation rates, and foreign exchange reserves. This review identifies key factors contributing to the trade deficit, including geographical constraints, limited export diversification, heavy reliance on imports, infrastructural deficiencies, insufficient promotion and advertisement, political instability, low productivity, and dependency on remittances. This study underscores the critical need for export diversification as a strategy for mitigating trade deficits. Developing sectors with high potential such as tourism, information technology, hydropower, and organic farming are essential. Additionally, improving the quality and value addition of exported goods, expanding market access through proactive trade diplomacy, and supporting small and medium enterprises are highlighted as necessary measures. This study also emphasizes the importance of substantial investments in infrastructure, education, and skill development to enhance productivity and competitiveness. Promoting a national brand and leveraging digital marketing platforms can boost Nepal’s export profile. Sound monetary policies and a stable economic environment are crucial for addressing the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility and inflation. Political stability and a conducive business environment are vital to fostering long-term economic growth. The effective utilization of remittances through productive investments and reducing dependency on external aid are pivotal for achieving sustainable development. Through coordinated efforts across various sectors, Nepal can work towards reducing its trade deficit, enhancing economic stability, and achieving sustainable economic growth.

Russian exports amid geopolitical instability: The case of physical and transitional climate risks

The paper examines the impact of physical and transitional climate risks, which to some extend shape the geopolitical situation in the world, on Russian exports. The gravity model of international trade was employed to model the existing relationship. Estimation of the gravity equation by means of the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method using data on Russian export flows to 72 countries over the period 2010—2021 revealed that climate change and the ambitions of trading partner states towards low-carbon development determine the dynamics of Russian exports. In particular, national physical climate risks have a detrimental impact on Russia’s exports due to the destruction of infrastructure, loss of capital, reduced quality and availability of natural resources, and increased social tensions. Extreme climatic events and climate change measures in trading partner countries spur the development of Russian exports. Namely, physical climate risks of importing countries may increase the demand for key Russian goods for economic recovery purposes. Changes during the transition to a low-carbon economy in trading partner countries also generate opportunities for Russian export growth due to the country’s role as a major supplier of energy and mineral products, as well as technologies for the alternative energy production and electrification of transport

Export Potential of Fruits for Boosting Secondary Agriculture in India

This study examined the export dynamics of major fruits and their processed products, employing the Markov Chain Technique to assess trade patterns and pinpoint promising export markets. The analysis underscored the growth potential in secondary agriculture, particularly through value addition. In 2022-23, fresh fruit exports generated ₹5,658.9 crore, while processed fruit exports amounted to ₹5,944.49 crore, with respective compound annual growth rates of 16.31 and 13.62 per cent over the past two decades. The importance of value addition was evident in the substantial export revenue from processed mango products, which brought in ₹2,937.17 crore compared to ₹378.49 crore for fresh mangoes alone. Key stable markets for processed mangoes include the U.K., Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia, while the UAE served as a crucial market for both fresh and processed mangoes. Fresh grapes also contributed significantly to exports, earning ₹2543.42 crore with an impressive growth rate of 18.58 per cent; primary export markets for grapes include the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and the UAE. Overall, secondary agriculture presents significant untapped potential for processed products, offering valuable opportunities to improve farmers' livelihoods.

TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT AND DIVERSIFICATION OF EXPORTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

The article analyzes the dynamics of Uzbekistan's exports of goods and services from 2010 to 2023. It assesses the diversification of both the commodity structure and the geographic distribution of exports using the export product concentration index and the export diversification index. Statistical analysis of trends in Uzbekistan's exports during this period highlights the urgent need to accelerate diversification in both the structure and geography of exports. It emphasizes increasing the share of finished goods with high added value in the export portfolio, as well as diversifying and expanding services exports and enhancing regional export activities. To achieve this faster export diversification, a comprehensive set of interrelated measures is required across various areas of economic policy. This includes improvements in trade, investment, and industrial policies, along with deeper institutional reforms.

Macroeconomic Stability in Bangladesh: Unraveling the Nexus between Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Export Dynamics through Nonlinear Modeling

This study explores the effects of exchange rate and inflation on the export of goods and services in Bangladesh. Applying Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and using data from 1987 to 2021, in the case of a negative shock, this study finds a significant negative long-run association of exchange rate and inflation with export. Besides, in the case of positive shock, we see a meaningful positive relationship between inflation and exports. Following the findings, this study suggests exchange rate and inflation to ensure stability in Bangladesh’s economy through the issuance of new policies considering the reduction of inflationary pressures, formulation of contractionary monetary policy, recapping exchange-traded funds, and modification of exchange rate determination.

Russian wheat export to African countries at the present stage: key development features, challenges and opportunities

The Russian Federation traditionally remains one of the most important producers and suppliers of wheat on the world market of agricultural raw materials and food. The countries of the African continent, on the contrary, form the largest group of importers and consumers of this product. The purpose of the article is to identify the main trends in the dynamics of Russian wheat exports to African countries at the present stage, as well as to identify the key features of this aspect of trade relations between the parties. The article examines the dynamics and features of export-import relations between the Russian Federation and African countries in the field of international wheat trade through the prism of food security theory. The paper presents an analysis of numerical indicators of wheat production in Russia and its exports to African countries in comparison with indicators of total supplies to the world market, identifies specific features of Russian exports focused on supplies to the African region, and concludes that Russia needs to expand its participation in ensuring food security in the Global South. The source base is statistical materials containing numerical indicators of wheat production and trade by countries and regions of the world, published by international organizations (FAO, International Trade Center, UNCTAD/WTO), national executive authorities, their subordinate institutions and the Bureau of Statistics (Rosstat, USDA); as well as analytical and information and news publications on the topic.

Assessing the Influence of Economic Factors on the Dynamics of Exports of Russian Oil and Petroleum Products Based on the Use of a Combination of PEST and SWOT Analysis Methods

The presented work is part of a series of articles devoted to assessing the influence of external factors on the dynamics of Russian exports. In this and subsequent related works, the authors proposed to consider the external environment, which had a significant impact on the dynamics of Russian exports and the relative diffi culty of revising its structure, the basis of commodity exports of which in value terms are hydrocarbon energy carriers. This work represents a conceptual basis for the use of instrumental methods for assessing the influence of external factors, in this case, economic ones, on the integral and sectoral indicators of Russian exports and, in particular, on the export of hydrocarbon energy resources. In the second part of this article, it is proposed to use a set of environmental analysis methods, the basis of which was the previously successfully used mechanism for combining the methods of PESTEL and SWOT analysis, which will make it possible, based on the use of scores, to describe the cumulative influence of external factors on the dynamics of the main industries of Russian exports. The novelty of the presented approach lies in the absence of a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the influence of external factors on the dynamics of Russian exports using the selected tools, which seems useful and timely in light of the emergence of new political and economic factors that have a significant impact on Russian foreign trade in general and on the dynamics of the carbohydrate energy market , in particular. The parameters for assessing external factors proposed by the authors were chosen by the author independently, taking into account the modern realities of the development of the world economy, which can also represent a separate point of novelty of the research conducted or be part of one of the existing points of novelty of the presented work. The merit of the authors of this work lies in the fact that this work proposed their own vision of a comprehensive assessment of the influence of external factors on the dynamics of the country’s exports.

Import and Export Dynamics of Fishing Hooks and Equipment in Türkiye: A Twenty-Year Analysis

This study evaluates the dynamics of fishing equipment trade in Türkiye by analyzing detailed import and export data collected over the last 20 years (2004-2023), focusing on how global events and technological innovations influence these trends. Data were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), encompassing volume and value metrics for various types of fishing equipment, including hooks, rods, and reels. A comprehensive time-series analysis was employed to assess trends, utilizing methodologies such as moving averages and ARIMA modeling to interpret the shifts in trade patterns. During the 2004-2008 period, imports of fishing hooks increased significantly from USD 316,265 to USD 1,209,804, indicating a growing dependency on foreign products, particularly from China. This surge highlights external pressures on local manufacturing and underscores the strategic need for trade policy adjustments to support domestic production. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 temporarily reduced import volumes due to disruptions in global supply chains and decreased consumer demand, but a resurgence was observed in 2023 as markets stabilized. The findings of this study highlight the necessity for Türkiye to enhance its competitive position in the global market by adopting new technologies and reducing dependency on imports, thus ensuring economic resilience and sustainability in its fishing equipment sector.

Modeling continental US stream water quality using long-short term memory and weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season

The temporal dynamics of solute export from catchments are challenging to quantify and model due to confounding hydrological and biogeochemical processes and sparse measurements. Conventionally, the concentration-discharge relationship (C-Q) and statistical approaches to describe it, such as the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge and Seasons (WRTDS), have been widely used. Recently, deep learning (DL) approaches, especially Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) models, have shown predictive capability for discharge, temperature, and dissolved oxygen. However, it is not clear if such advances can be expanded to water quality variables driven by complex subsurface biogeochemical processes. This work evaluates the performance of LSTM and WRTDS for 20 water quality variables across ~500 catchments in the continental US. We find that LSTM does not markedly outperform WRTDS in our dataset, potentially limited by the current measurement capabilities of water quality across CONUS. Both models present similar performance patterns across water quality variables, with the LSTM displaying better performance for nutrients compared to weathering-derived solutes. Additionally, the LSTM does not benefit from flexibility in the inputs. For example, incorporation of climate data that constrains streamflow generation, does not significantly improve the LSTM performance. We also find that data availability is not a straightforward predictor of LSTM model performance, although higher availability tends to stabilize performance. To fully assess the potential of the LSTM model, it may be necessary to use a higher frequency dataset across the CONUS, which does not exist today. To evaluate the dynamics of C-Q patterns relative to model performance, we introduce a “simplicity index” considering both the seasonality in the concentration pattern and the linearity in the C-Q relationship, or the C-Q-t pattern. The simplicity index is strongly correlated with model performance and differentiates the underlying controls on water quality dynamics. Further DL experiments and model-intercomparison highlight the strengths and deficiencies of existing frameworks, pointing to the need for further hydrogeochemical theories that are amenable to complex basins and solutes.

Ensuring food security of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the conditions of import substitution

The aim is to determine the level of food self-sufficiency of the country in the conditions of import substitution. In developing the theoretical section of the work universal scientific methods - analysis and synthesis, comparison, logical. Collection and processing of secondary information, based on the use of official data of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the results of the Global Food Security Index 2022. Results - theoretical aspects of the food situation and issues of accessibility of quality products for the population were studied, the role of the agrarian sector in the economy of Kazakhstan was shown and the importance of the agrarian sector in the economy of Kazakhstan was substantiated. Calculated and analyzed such indicators as the degree of self-sufficiency of consumption products in the country, output of various types of products per capita, average consumer spending on food, the dynamics of exports and imports of food products. The dependence on imports of the main types of foodstuffs is considered and the forecast of production of products of the agrarian sphere with regard to ensuring food independence is presented. Three forecast scenarios are proposed: basic, optimistic and pessimistic. Conclusions - it is revealed that food stability implies a sufficient level of development of the agro-industrial complex, at which the domestic demand for food products can be largely satisfied by the production of own food products. The key task of agrarian policy - to achieve selfsufficiency in the country of at least 80% of the total demand is outlined. Import substitution contributes to the implementation of large-scale and deep modernization of the domestic agro-industrial complex, which requires the use of innovative technologies.

AGRO PRODUCTS EXPORTS OF UKRAINE WITHIN ITS TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES

The aim of the research is to work out the recommendations on the geography of the agricultural products trade of Ukraine under the circumstances of the on-going war through the analysis of the trends and dynamics of the agro exports from Ukraine to the CIS, the agricultural products exports from Ukraine to the CIS countries possible correlation with each other, its direction and level. The data are the values of the agricultural products exports from Ukraine to the CIS countries from 2001 to 2023 included with the special identification of the years 2021-2023 as the year 2001 is the earliest one with the available data, 2021 is the pre-war year and 2023 – the year with the latest data available and the second year of the war. Such methods of scientific research as empirical, comparative and statistical analyses, including data mining, cleaning and processing, methods of correlation measuring like Pearson, Spearman and Kendal correlation tests, the method of exclusion, as well as textual and tabular methods for better data presentation and comparison were used while conducting the research presented in the given article. The conducted research indicated, that the agro exports of Ukraine to the following country – pairs appeared to be positively correlated: 1) Armenia – with Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, 2) Azerbaijan – with Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, 3) Belarus – with Uzbekistan, 4) Georgia – with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, 5) Kazakhstan – with Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, 6) Kyrgyz Republic – with Tajikistan, and 7) Tajikistan – with Turkmenistan.